California: Flurry of Polling in Close 52nd District
Posted at 10:02 a.m. on Oct. 24, 2012
San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters (above) is in what appears to be a close race with Rep. Brian Bilbray. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
A flurry of polls were released over the last few days in the battleground 52nd district, where Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is attempting to hold off a challenge from San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters (D).
Until now, there had been a dearth of polling on this competitive race. None of the three polls now out match each other, and the race is likely closer than any of the numbers suggest.
Sixty percent of the redrawn district is new to Bilbray, and the race has attracted a torrent of outside spending in recent weeks as both parties push to get out the early vote for this race and the competitive mayoral election.
On Tuesday, the Peters campaign released an internal poll that found the Democrat ahead of Bilbray by 5 points. Peters led 45 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent still undecided. Grove Insight conducted the Oct. 19-21 poll of 400 likely voters with a 4.9-point margin of error.
The release came days after U-T San Diego released a poll that found Bilbray leading Peters by 9 points. That poll was conducted by the Glover Park Group among 374 likely voters with a 5-point margin of error. The Bilbray campaign also released internal numbers that showed him ahead by a smaller margin, but the campaign did not disclose who conducted the poll and did not respond to a request for that information.