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Posts in "DCCC"
October 24, 2014
A new Democratic poll shows the party’s nominee in an open House contest in Hawaii with a 7-point lead over the Republican.
State Rep. Mark Takai, a Democrat, led former Republican Rep. Charles Djou, 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the survey, which was conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and obtained by CQ Roll Call.
Public polling has shown a closer race, either a dead heat or with Djou slightly leading Takai. Both are seeking to succeed Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, a Democrat who lost the primary for Senate earlier this year.
This week, American Action Network, a GOP group, went up with $300,000 on Honolulu broadcast attacking Takai’s past comments on taxes. They hope Djou will upset the Aloha State’s 1st District, which voted for President Barack Obama by a 41-percent margin in 2012.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added an additional $1.3 million in ad buys Friday in five districts to boost incumbents with increasingly challenging re-election races.
The cash injection comes 11 days before voters head to the polls and signals House Democrats are increasingly fearful they could see double-digit losses on election night.
Here are the five districts where the DCCC is adding airtime:
October 23, 2014
Updated 5:37 p.m. | National Democrats and Republicans will make major television buys in an off-the-radar House race in West Virginia, according to party sources tracking ad buys.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee intends to purchase $600,000 in airtime in West Virginia’s 2nd District, an open-seat race to succeed Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. The National Republican Congressional Committee will also make a $250,000 buy in Charleston through Election Day. Full story
In the midst of wall-to-wall political coverage before Election Day, this handful of House races have managed to mostly fly under the radar.
These are sleeper races, from Arkansas to West Virginia, where the district’s partisan breakdown does not reflect the competitive nature of the race.
As little as two weeks ago, some of these contests were completely overlooked by national political operatives. But new polling suggests these races — like many more competitive contests — are closing, creating eleventh-hour opportunities for the parties.
To be sure, these seats won’t necessarily flip party control on Nov. 4. But thanks to recent events, they should make any election night watch list.
In alphabetical order, here are five sleeper House races of 2014:
Arkansas’ 2nd District Full story
October 21, 2014
House Democrats continue to bolster their incumbents, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expanding its defensive spending.
Most notably, the DCCC is spending more in support of Democratic Reps. Collin C. Peterson in Minnesota and Dave Loebsack in Iowa, races that are only in recent days coming to the forefront of the House map.
Here are the changes, made as both parties re-evaluate their chances with two weeks to go until Election Day:
October 20, 2014
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $5 million more than its Republican counterpart in September, as the two committees headed into the final stretch of the cycle.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, which is defending a significant majority it’s all but guaranteed to retain, raised $11.4 million in September, according to a committee aide. The DCCC reported earlier Monday raising $16.7 million in September. Full story
House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.
Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.
“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.
Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front drag down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.
But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.
Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:
The National Republican Congressional Committee is cutting the last two weeks of its television reservations in Maine’s 2nd District, according to a committee spokeswoman.
The NRCC originally reserved $1.6 million for the open-seat race to succeed Rep. Michael H. Michaud, a Democrat who is running for governor. The committee spent $965,000 of that reservation, but will now shift the remaining funds to offensive seats elsewhere.
“We have put Democrats on defense in Maine, and we are increasing our buys in several offensive seats,” NRCC spokeswoman Andrea Bozek told Roll Call on Monday.
The committee will now add six-figure sums to four other offensive opportunity races: Full story
House Democrats raised $16.7 million in September, according to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide.
The committee ended last month with $34 million in the bank. Much of that money is currently being spent on television in House races across the country. Full story
October 16, 2014
Updated 8:37 p.m. | The Democratic House political arm is scrapping plans to spend a substantial sum of money on the Massachusetts 6th District race, but is still investing in the Boston media market on New Hampshire’s two competitive House races, according to a source tracking media buys.
A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide characterized the move as a sign of confidence Democrat Seth Moulton will be able to hold the open seat against Republican Richard Tisei.
The DCCC had more than $1 million reserved in the Boston media market combined between the Massachusetts 6th District and New Hamsphire’s 1st District and 2nd District. Full story
October 15, 2014
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi raised $1 million from her colleagues during the last week, according to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide.
Pelosi and other top House Democrats are making the case that members need to open their wallets for the midterms, after the DCCC made a series of airtime cuts in districts the party had previously targeted as pick-up opportunities.
Pelosi and DCCC Chairman Steve Israel held a caucus-wide a conference call Wednesday afternoon pressing members to pony up or exceed their assigned dues. The call garnered roughly $585,000 from members. Full story
A little more than a month ago, New York’s 24th district was a relatively quiet contest. Now, just a few weeks before Election Day, Rep. Dan Maffei, D-N.Y., is stuck in yet another close campaign.
After weeks of million-dollar airtime wars put the congressman in political peril, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will make a trip to Syracuse to campaign for Maffei next week. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy will stop in the central New York district, following Speaker John A. Boehner, who already headlined a fundraiser there.
The district slightly favors Democrats — an advantage that grew after redistricting in 2012. But the district has flipped between parties every cycle, with Maffei losing re-election after a single term in 2010. He won back the seat last cycle, and until recently, it wasn’t clear whether Maffei would be targeted for defeat in the midterms.
But on Sept. 12, the National Republican Congressional Committee swooped into the district to reserve $1.5 million in airtime to help its nominee, John Katko. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee followed suit four days later, spending $859,000.
The investment has proven potent in this district, which is covered by the inexpensive Syracuse media market. Campaigns can make a huge impact in the district without a lot of money — at least compared to other districts. Full story
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told reporters Wednesday he is “frustrated” that his party’s outside groups have not supported House Democrats on television in the final stretch of the midterms.
Many big Democratic players — such as environmental and labor groups — focused their financial firepower on the Senate, which is in play this cycle. This has caused increased anxiety among House Democrats, who also face losses in 2014.
House Democrats must pick up a net of 17 seats to win control of the House, but it’s increasingly likely the party will lose seats in that chamber this cycle. For the first time, Israel made a public plea to outside groups for their financial help.
October 14, 2014
Meet the cycle’s biggest candidate disappointments.
They are the congressional hopefuls who just didn’t live up to their hype. Once touted as top recruits, these House and Senate candidates are headed for defeat on Election Day in all likelihood. Some of these candidates tanked so early in the cycle, their races never got off the ground.
The reasons for their declines vary — from poor fundraising and stalking allegations to plagiarism and missteps on the trail. Whatever the reason, don’t expect to see these faces when the 114th Congress is sworn into office next year.
To be sure, there are a few more candidates who could have easily made this list, but they’ve been boosted by districts or states that favor their parties, as well as outside spending keeping them afloat. The prime example is Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin, a poor fundraiser who barely won his August primary but is nonetheless in a strong position to challenge Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the 1st District, which slightly favors the GOP.
In alphabetical order, here are the rest of the 2014 cycle’s most disappointing candidates:
October 13, 2014
House Majority PAC, a super PAC that boosts House Democrats, recently delayed a week’s worth of advertising in New Jersey’s 3rd District in the final stretch of the campaign.
Democrat Aimee Belgard and Republican Tom MacArthur are running to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jon Runyan in one of a few races left on the map where Democrats remain on offense. The district, which is reached via the pricey Philadelphia media market, is rated Tilts Republican by The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.
House Majority PAC moved a massive broadcast television reservation for the week of Oct. 14, pushing it back and splitting it in half over broadcast airwaves for the two final weeks of the midterms, according to the super PAC’s Executive Director Ali Lapp. She told CQ Roll Call it is undetermined if the group will follow through with its Philadelphia ad reservation through Election Day.