Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
November 28, 2015

Posts in "Ariz.-1"

November 19, 2015

Vulnerable House Democrats Side With GOP on Refugee Bill

Ashford voted against the  Republican bill to add an extra layer of bureaucratic certification to security checks for Syrian and Iraqi refugees. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ashford voted against the Republican bill to add an extra layer of bureaucratic certification to security checks for Syrian and Iraqi refugees. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Nearly every member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline Program for vulnerable members voted Thursday for a Republican bill that would add bureaucratic security checks for Syrians and Iraqis hoping to enter the U.S. as refugees.

In the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, Democratic strategists say the vote was good politics for those 13 Democratic incumbents, who represent competitive districts of varying degrees. The vote gave them an opportunity to appear tough on national security, an issue they often struggle with.

Full story

October 5, 2015

Arizona Sheriff Babeu Enters Race for Kirkpatrick’s Seat

On the day of Babeu's announcement, the Republican field in Arizona's competitive 1st District doubled. (File Photo by Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images)

On the day of Babeu’s announcement, the Republican field in Arizona’s competitive 1st District doubled. (Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images File Photo)

Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu said Monday he will run for Congress in the state’s open 1st District, just hours before state Speaker David Gowan announced he too would run.

The two join a field that could get crowded in this Republican-heavy district that is now represented by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat who is challenging Republican Sen. John McCain next year.  Full story

August 4, 2015

Former Republican Running as Democrat to Replace Kirkpatrick


Kirkpatrick is vacating her House seat to run for the Senate. (File Photo by Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

In Arizona’s 1st District, Democrats may turn to a former Republican as they try to hold on to outgoing Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s seat.

Former state Sen. Tom O’Halleran, 69, on Tuesday said he would seek the party’s nomination, becoming the first Democratic candidate to enter the race. Kirkpatrick is vacating her seat to run for the Senate.

Full story

June 29, 2015

State Senator Considering Run for Arizona Open House Seat


Kirkpatrick is giving up her House seat to run for McCain’s Senate seat. (File Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Arizona State Sen. Barbara McGuire, a Democrat, said Monday she is considering a run for the Democratic nomination in the state’s 1st Congressional District.

In a statement, McGuire stopped short of declaring her candidacy. Instead, she said she plans to “take the next few weeks to discuss the possibility” with people she knows and her constituents.

Full story

May 26, 2015

Kirkpatrick to Challenge McCain in Arizona

Kirkpatrick is running for Senate in Arizona. (Jason Dick/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Kirkpatrick is running for Senate in Arizona. (Jason Dick/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated, 2:05 p.m. | Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick will challenge Republican Sen. John McCain, according to a source with knowledge of Kirkpatrick’s plans, giving Democrats a top recruit and a potential pickup opportunity.

Kirkpatrick made calls Monday to inform people of her plans, the source told CQ Roll Call. Her bid also opens up Arizona’s 1st District, a GOP-leaning seat spanning the northeast quadrant of the state.

Full story

February 12, 2015

Exclusive: DCCC Announces 14 Incumbents in Frontline Program


Luján, right, is a Democrat from New Mexico. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will announce Thursday the first 14 members who will join its Frontline program for the party’s most vulnerable incumbents, according to an early copy of a news release obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The incumbents represent competitive districts, making them likely GOP targets in 2016. The Frontline program,which Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., is chairman of,  provides these members with fundraising and organizational support for their re-elections.

Full story

November 18, 2014

The Survivor: How Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick Held On

Kirkpatrick beat the odds to win re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republican operatives called her race “cooked.” One national news organization put her chances at victory of 12 percent. After all, voters in Arizona’s 1st District had already fired Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick once before — in a toxic climate in 2010.

But as House Democrats fell across the country on Nov. 4, Kirkpatrick didn’t just win re-election. She expanded her margin from 2012, proving naysayers wrong thanks to one, simple political maxim: To win, a candidate has to be better than his or her opponent.

And she was.

Her rival, state Speaker Andy Tobin, was a top recruit for national Republicans. The party went all in for him, spending millions against Kirkpatrick on television.

But, “people know me,” she said in a phone interview last week. “They’re common-sense people, and I think they saw through the partisan games.”

Full story

November 4, 2014

6 Harbinger House Races for Election Night

house races

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel will have a bad night if his party loses these races. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Democrats are bracing for losses on Election Day, but just how bad of a night will it be?

A few races will serve as cues throughout the evening, as polls close across the country. They will be harbingers for House Republicans, who are looking at gains anywhere from six to a dozen seats.

Here are the bellwether House races to watch as results come in, in order of poll closing times:
Full story

November 3, 2014

Why State Lawmakers Are an Opposition Researcher’s Dream

Tillis has a record and Democrats know it. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Think being a Washington politician gets a bum rap? It’s not so easy being a politician from Phoenix, Springfield, Des Moines, Lincoln or Raleigh, either. Just ask Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin, Illinois state Rep. Mike Bost, Iowa House Rep. Pat Murphy, Nebraska state Sen. Brad Ashford or North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis.

With extensive voting records, state legislators hoping to capture national offices have seen their records used against them in close races, as their opponents use their votes to paint them with the same brush any incumbent is accustomed to.

The two speakers, Tillis and Tobin, have been targeted especially hard. Full story

October 31, 2014

The Recount Rules Guide for 2014

recount rules
(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

After the polls close Tuesday, it’s likely at least a handful of House and Senate races will be too close to call.

What would happen next for these tight contests? In most cases, once all the votes are collected and counted, it’s a pesky procedure that keeps candidates and canvassers up at night for days or weeks: the recount.

Recount laws vary by state, so we’ve rounded up what triggers one and any notable fine print in states with anticipated close contests.


Sen. Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Race Rating: Tilts Republican

Trigger: Only an exact tie triggers a recount in the El Dorado of the North. But if the race does not end in a tie, a losing candidate or 10 qualified voters can still request a recount.

Fine Print: In a statewide election, the recount requestor must deposit $15,000 with the recount application, unless the margin is less than 0.5 percent, at which point the state covers the cost. The deposit is refunded if the recount changes the election results.

Full story

October 24, 2014

Candidates Get Platform With GOP Weekly Address


Every week after President Barack Obama delivers his weekly address, the Republicans get a chance to respond. Because they don’t, of course, have a singular figure who would naturally address the nation each week, the speakers vary. So far in 2014, 11 Republican candidates — four House hopefuls and seven vying for Senate seats — have had the honor to take to YouTube and spread their party’s message.

In the fall of an election year, the GOP weekly address is an opportunity for Republicans to showcase some of their hopefuls on the ballot to a broader audience than the candidates can normally reach themselves — because not everyone pays attention to every Senate race, or to New York congressional campaigns.

“The weekly address is a great opportunity to showcase our diverse and talented group of candidates to the country,” said Michael Short, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, which coordinates the speeches. He said the party’s “tremendous slate” allows the GOP to contrast its record with the president’s.

There are some common themes mentioned time and time again: dissatisfaction with the president’s job approval, the desire to expand domestic energy production, repealing the Affordable Care Act and cutting government regulation.

Saturday’s address, posted at 6 a.m., will feature Will Hurd, the GOP nominee for Texas’ 23rd House district.

Here is a summary of the others.

Full story

October 23, 2014

Life on Mars, or Running in Arizona’s 1st District

ann kirkpatrick

Kirkpatrick is a Democrat from Arizona. (Jason Dick/CQ Roll Call Photo)

TUBA CITY, Ariz. — The Grand Canyon State’s 1st District is so vast and diverse that running for political office involves time travel.

It’s also helpful to pick up a little of a language so difficult to master it formed an unbreakable code that helped the United States win World War II.

But first, the time travel.

When visiting the Navajo Nation in Northern Arizona, the largest tribe of a dozen in the district, Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and her Republican opponent, state Speaker Andy Tobin, have to build in an extra hour.

Why? A befuddled cellphone won’t pick up on it, but the Navajo Nation observes Daylight Saving Time. The rest of the Grand Canyon State, brandishing its contrarian streak, never changes its clocks.

So to ensure Kirkpatrick was in line for the Western Navajo Nation here at 9 a.m. DST on Oct. 18, the usual 90-minute ride from Flagstaff became a two-and-a-half hour journey.

Tobin had to factor in the same math on a visit he made here the day before the parade, as the Western Navajo Nation Fair was getting underway.

On the flip side, when heading somewhere else in the district from the Navajo Nation, even to the Hopi Nation, which is completely surrounded by Navajo land, one gets that hour back. Surrounded by Navajo land, you’re back to the past, or at least, back in the rest of the state’s time zone.

Confused? That’s just the start of the logistics involved in a campaign here.

Full story

October 20, 2014

For House GOP, a Wave … Or a Trickle?


Kirkpatrick is one of the most endangered Democrats this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.

Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.

“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.

Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front drag down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.

But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.

Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:

Full story

October 14, 2014

The 9 Biggest Candidate Flameouts


Walsh will not run for re-election to a full term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Meet the cycle’s biggest candidate disappointments.

They are the congressional hopefuls who just didn’t live up to their hype. Once touted as top recruits, these House and Senate candidates are headed for defeat on Election Day in all likelihood. Some of these candidates tanked so early in the cycle, their races never got off the ground.

The reasons for their declines vary — from poor fundraising and stalking allegations to plagiarism and missteps on the trail. Whatever the reason, don’t expect to see these faces when the 114th Congress is sworn into office next year.

To be sure, there are a few more candidates who could have easily made this list, but they’ve been boosted by districts or states that favor their parties, as well as outside spending keeping them afloat. The prime example is Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin, a poor fundraiser who barely won his August primary but is nonetheless in a strong position to challenge Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the 1st District, which slightly favors the GOP.

In alphabetical order, here are the rest of the 2014 cycle’s most disappointing candidates:

Full story

October 7, 2014

6 Gubernatorial Races With Potential Congressional Consequences

elections 2014

Barber is running as a Democrat in Arizona, where there is a competitive gubernatorial race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The lines separating gubernatorial and congressional candidates on the ballot could blur in several states this cycle, as the top of the ticket proves to be a driving force downballot in a half-dozen states.

Typically, competitive gubernatorial races impact one key factor for victory: turnout. As a result, state parties ramp up their efforts to turn out their base, which could also boost candidates all over the ballot, including congressional races.

Gubernatorial races have less of an impact on Senate contests, where candidates are similarly well known by voters. But they often can make a difference in a close House race.

In alphabetical order, here are six states where the impact of a gubernatorial race could drip down the ballot:  Full story

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