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Illinois Democrat Brad Schneider, a former congressman who served one term representing the state’s 10th District, is claiming a big lead over his primary rival as he hopes for a rematch with Republican Rep. Robert J. Dold.
According to a memo detailing a survey conducted by Normington Petts for Schneider’s campaign last week and obtained by CQ Roll Call, Schneider holds a 36-point lead over Nancy Rotering — pulling more than half of the support from the seniors, women, union households and liberals who were polled. Full story
A set of polls conducted for the Human Rights Campaign found incumbents would imperil their re-election chances if they oppose a bill that bans discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender individuals.
The polling, shared first with CQ Roll Call, found that in six districts held by Republicans, voters would be less likely to support the GOP incumbent if they opposed the Equality Act. A seventh poll conducted in a competitive seat held by a Democrat found the same result. The Equality Act is a bill introduced in July that would “extend existing non-discrimination laws to protect [LGBT] people.”
Two former House Democrats ousted in 2014 announced Friday they’re giving it another go.
Former Reps. Pete Gallego of Texas and Brad Schneider of Illinois released statements within minutes of each other confirming they will challenge the freshman Republicans who defeated them in the midterms. Full story
Former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is seriously considering a run for Congress in New Hampshire’s 1st District in 2016 — setting up the possibility of yet another House rematch this cycle.
“I am so grateful to all of you who have been also asking me to run again for the United States House of Representatives,” Shea-Porter said recently in an email to supporters obtained by CQ Roll Call. “I received 48.2% of the vote in a very tough cycle, which mean we can win the seat in 2016 when more voters turn out. My team and I are hard at work looking at everything, and I will send you an email when a decision is made.”
Updated 11:00 a.m. | Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering announced a bid in Illinois’ 10th District Tuesday, putting Democrats on a likely primary collision course in a must-win seat for the party.
Rotering hopes to face GOP Rep. Robert Dold, a moderate Republican who won his second, non-consecutive term in this suburban Chicago-based district in 2014. But she is likely to face a primary against former Rep. Brad Schneider, the Democrat who lost to Dold in November.
While some GOP lawmakers veer right for fear of primary threats, one vulnerable House Republican continues to inch closer to other end of his party’s spectrum for political survival.
Last week, Illinois Rep. Robert Dold, one of the most endangered House Republicans, signed onto a bipartisan bill that would expand background checks for gun purchasers. It was the latest in a series of moves by Dold — now serving his second, non-consecutive term — that showcased his moderate stripes.
Former Illinois Rep. Brad Schneider is inching closer to a rematch with Republican Rep. Robert Dold, according to a Democratic source with knowledge of his plans.
Schneider was in Washington, D.C., Tuesday for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference. He attended the Democratic Caucus meeting Tuesday morning, where he received a standing ovation from his former colleagues, according to the source, and he was scheduled to meet with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in the afternoon. Full story
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will launch robocalls against more than two dozen House Republicans Tuesday over the Department of Homeland Security funding flap, according to a script of the call provided first to CQ Roll Call.
The National Republican Congressional Committee announced 12 members will kick-start its Patriot Program for the House GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents, according to a news release provided first to CQ Roll Call.
Eleven of the members were elected in 2014, when Republicans made huge gains across the country. The 12 members represent districts where Democrats typically perform well in presidential cycles, making them top targets in 2016.
Former Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Ill., visited Capitol Hill this week to meet with party leaders about a potential rematch in 2016, according to a House Democratic official.
Schneider was on Roll Call’s list of the 10 most vulnerable members in 2014. He ultimately lost re-election to Rep. Robert Dold, R-Ill., by a 2.5-point margin in November. But Democrats hope Schneider will run again in suburban Chicago’s 10th District — a prime pickup opportunity for the party in 2016.
There’s no rest for the weary at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has yet to name the new committee chairman for 2016, but the DCCC is already getting a jump on recruiting during the final days of New York Rep. Steve Israel’s tenure.
On Thursday morning, Israel held the first 2016 recruitment meeting since Election Day. He named two northeastern congressional districts as top targeting opportunities, and party strategists are readying for at least five rematches from 2014, according to a committee aide. Full story
House Democrats are bracing for losses on Election Day, but just how bad of a night will it be?
A few races will serve as cues throughout the evening, as polls close across the country. They will be harbingers for House Republicans, who are looking at gains anywhere from six to a dozen seats.
Here are the bellwether House races to watch as results come in, in order of poll closing times:
After the polls close Tuesday, it’s likely at least a handful of House and Senate races will be too close to call.
What would happen next for these tight contests? In most cases, once all the votes are collected and counted, it’s a pesky procedure that keeps candidates and canvassers up at night for days or weeks: the recount.
Recount laws vary by state, so we’ve rounded up what triggers one and any notable fine print in states with anticipated close contests.
Sen. Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Race Rating: Tilts Republican
Trigger: Only an exact tie triggers a recount in the El Dorado of the North. But if the race does not end in a tie, a losing candidate or 10 qualified voters can still request a recount.
Fine Print: In a statewide election, the recount requestor must deposit $15,000 with the recount application, unless the margin is less than 0.5 percent, at which point the state covers the cost. The deposit is refunded if the recount changes the election results.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added an additional $1.3 million in ad buys Friday in five districts to boost incumbents with increasingly challenging re-election races.
The cash injection comes 11 days before voters head to the polls and signals House Democrats are increasingly fearful they could see double-digit losses on election night.
Here are the five districts where the DCCC is adding airtime:
Less than two weeks before Election Day, the parties don’t agree on much — except these House races will be decided by the slimmest of margins.
Candidates in these contests are expected to have a long wait on the evening of Nov. 4. In fact, some of these races will be so close that the winner might not be known for days — even weeks — after Election Day.
Last cycle, nine House races were too close to call on election night. One candidate even attended freshman orientation the following week, before officially losing the race and heading home.
In alphabetical order, here are the House contests this cycle that operatives expect will come down to the wire on Election Day: