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- Parties Play Politics With FEC Complaints
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- Campaign Committees Open Holes While Filling Others
Posts in "N.C.-7"
October 20, 2014
House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.
Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.
“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.
Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front drag down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.
But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.
Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:
May 6, 2014
Jones defeated Taylor Griffin, a former aide to President George W. Bush, 52 percent to 45 percent, with 66 percent of precincts reporting, according to The Associated Press.
Outside groups spent more than $1 million to paint Jones as “liberal” and boost Griffin’s candidacy in the 3rd District. But Republican operatives in North Carolina said Jones’ deep ties to the Tar Heel State were too much for Griffin to overcome.
Jones will keep his seat this November in all likelihood. North Carolina’s 3rd District is rated a Safe Republican contest by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.
April 7, 2014
Woody White, one of two Republicans running for North Carolina’s open 7th District seat, released a TV ad Monday touting his conservative principles.
The New Hanover County commissioner’s 30-second bio spot will air on cable and broadcast district-wide, according to White’s campaign. It’s the latest primary ad to hit the airwaves in this top target for national Republicans.
“I’m a conservative who will stand up for our values and God-given liberties,” White says in the ad, while voicing his opposition to the Affordable Care Act and amnesty for undocumented immigrants.
March 31, 2014
Former state Sen. David Rouzer, a Republican running in North Carolina’s open 7th District, went up on air last week with his first ad of the cycle.
The ad will air district-wide on cable and on broadcast in the Wilmington market, according to Rouzer’s campaign.
“I’ve put more than three hundred thousand miles on this truck. Most days I’m visiting with folks in small businesses. They’re worried about our future, and they should be,” Rouzer says in the ad.
January 8, 2014
Updated 1:09 p.m. | Two longtime House Democrats — Reps. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina and Carolyn McCarthy of New York — will not seek re-election in 2014, according to multiple Democratic sources.
The duo of House Democrats mark the third in that caucus to announce he or she won’t return to Congress after 2014. Last month, vulnerable Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, announced he would not seek an 8th term, also nearly assuring Republicans will pick up his seat.
McIntyre was one of this cycle’s most vulnerable Democrats and his departure will likely allow the GOP to pick up his seat. Mitt Romney carried the 7th District a 19-point margin in 2012, while McIntyre won re-election by a slim margin.
Former state Sen. David Rouzer, who lost to McIntyre by just 654 votes in 2012, is running again this cycle. Prior to McIntyre’s retirement announcement, the 7th District was rated a Tossup by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.
By comparison, McCarthy’s Long Island-based 4th District is much less of a political opportunity for Republicans. She won re-election in 2012 by a near 2-to-1 margin, and President Barack Obama carried the seat by 12 points in 2012.
McCarthy went public with her battle against lung cancer in June.
The Long Island local parties wield enormous power in selecting a congressional nominee, but in Roll Call’s recent look at the New York State Republican Farm Team, state operatives named state Sen. Jack Martins and Hempstead Councilman Anthony J. Santino as potential contenders in an open-seat race.
Democrats named Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice as a potential successor prior to McCarthy’s announcement.
McCarthy came to Congress in 1997 as a gun-control activist. Her husband was killed in 1993, when a gunman went on a shooting rampage on the Long Island commuter rail.
See all House retirements on Roll Call’s Casualty List.
November 21, 2013
The National Republican Congressional Committee announced on Thursday 36 candidates who have achieved the committee’s “On the Radar” status.
This ranking is the first of three levels of the committee’s fundraising and infrastructure program. Earning this status means the NRCC “will help to provide candidates and their campaigns the tools they need to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents,” according to an NRCC release.
The final level is “Young Gun” status.
“These 36 candidates all provide a stark contrast to their liberal opponents, whose support of ObamaCare and this Administration’s big-government, job-destroying agenda has taken a toll on the American people,” NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said in a statement.
Some of the other challengers are running in the same districts.
October 9, 2013
The North Carolina Democrat’s most recent haul is about 20 percent less than the $236,000 he raised in the previous fundraising quarter. He reported $524,000 in cash on hand.
McIntyre is one of seven Democrats representing districts that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012, making him a top GOP target in 2014. Romney carried North Carolina’s 7th District by a 19-point margin last cycle.
August 28, 2013
The new team includes two recent National Republican Congressional Committee officials and some returning players from his 2012 team. McIntyre defeated Rouzer in 2012 by about 700 votes and the race is rated a Pure Tossup by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.
- General Consultant: Brock McCleary of Long Nyquist & Associates. McCleary was the NRCC’s 2012 polling director/deputy political director; he left the committee not long after last year’s elections.
- Media/digital consultants: Brad Todd and Guy Harrison of On Message, Inc. Harrison was the NRCC’s 2012 cycle executive director.
July 17, 2013
Now that all of the House fundraising reports are due, here is CQ Roll Call’s look at the winners and losers in the fundraising game.
Quarterly fundraising offers a quantitative window into the efficiency of a campaign — as well as a candidate’s drive to win. A number of challengers raised more money than incumbents this cycle, while other incumbents are racking up huge sums.
To see a full rundown of the House fundraising landscape, check out CQ Roll Call’s House fundraising chart. Even better: Bookmark it.
Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Fla., in the 26th District
$442,000 raised, $801,000 in cash on hand
Garcia’s strong fundraising might be the best news he’s had in a few months. Two members of his official staff resigned during the second quarter amid an investigation into alleged corruption. But despite his legal troubles, he proved to be one of the top House fundraisers in the second quarter.
Former San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio, a Republican in California’s 52nd District
$488,000 raised, $470,000 in cash on hand
DeMaio raised nearly a half-million dollars to challenge freshman Rep. Scott Peters, a Democrat who brought in $363,000 for this competitive district. Peters still holds the cash-on-hand edge with $526,000 in the bank. Full story
July 15, 2013
The second-quarter reporting due date arrived Monday, spurring a flurry of fundraising announcements ahead of the midnight deadline.
Look for CQ Roll Call’s fundraising charts to detail counts from every 2014 Senate race, as well as dozens of top House races, in the coming days.
In the meantime, here’s a round up of Monday’s second-quarter fundraising announcements.
June 2, 2013
By most metrics, these House members probably should have lost already.
And yet, like the white whale in “Moby Dick,” these races have a habit of slipping away from the opposition.
The following handful of House members win re-election by defying the odds. They represent unfavorable districts and withstand millions in negative advertisements — yet they stay at the top of the opposition’s target list cycle after cycle.
May 9, 2013
Here’s what you may have missed “At the Races” on Thursday …
- Following a couple of Senate recruitment setbacks for both parties this week, Shira Toeplitz posted a timeline of when candidates announced their Senate bids in the 2012 cycle for comparison.
- Kyle Trygstad looked into whether former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., will jump into South Dakota’s open Senate race now that Democrat Rick Weiland announced his candidacy. It wouldn’t be the first time Herseth Sandlin and Weiland have faced off in a primary.
- Missouri state Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith, a Republican, released his first ad in the special election to fill former Rep. Jo Ann Emerson’s seat.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a new program to cultivate strong candidates in targeted districts for 2014. The DCCC has tapped eight Democratic candidates for the program so far.
What we’re mulling on Thursday … Full story
April 10, 2013
All three freshmen won rematch races in 2012 after narrowly losing bids for Congress in 2010.
Three months into the 2014 midterm cycle, there are at least a handful of highly anticipated House race rematches on tap. More are likely to materialize in the next year.
The 2012 opponent of Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., made his comeback official Tuesday, and Minnesota hotelier Jim Graves is expected to announce Thursday whether he will again challenge GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann. Observers believe he will run.
The House landscape is far from set at this early juncture, with first-quarter fundraising reports due Monday and challengers just starting to roll out their campaigns.
Also, a presidential-year electorate differs (in some districts greatly) from a midterm electorate. Depending on the district, that could mean that a rematch race is less — or more — competitive. Full story
April 9, 2013
Rouzer, who previously said he intended to run again, is hoping to take out one of the most vulnerable House Democrats of the cycle. McIntyre is one of nine Democrats who represent a district President Barack Obama lost in 2012.
(See also on Roll Call: DCCC Announces 26 Members on Frontline Incumbent Retention Program) Full story
March 29, 2013
If Rouzer wins the GOP nomination, he will face a rematch against Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., in 2014.
McIntyre edged out Rouzer by 654 votes, the closest margin of any House race in the 2012 cycle. The ballot counting went past Election Day. It was the last congressional race to be called, in late November.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named McIntyre to its “Frontline” incumbent retention program earlier this month.