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February 11, 2016

Posts in "N.H.-1"

February 3, 2016

Owens, Mills Outraising Incumbents in Rematches

UNITED STATES - OCTOBER 9: Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, runs down the House steps barefoot as she leaves the Capitol for the Columbus Day recess after final votes on Friday Oct. 9, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Love’s Democratic challenger outraised her by $25,000. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

In Utah’s ‘Safe Republican‘ territory, where Democrat Doug Owens is again vying for the 4th District seat he lost by 5 points in 2014, he is one of the rare rematch candidates to have raised more than the incumbent.

Freshman Republican Rep. Mia Love has been looking to solidify her hold in a district Mitt Romney carried by 37 points in 2012. She brought in $325,000 in the final three months of 2015, and spent $302,000 of it, leaving her with $781,000 in the bank. But Owens raised $350,000, spending only $135,000, and has $500,000 in the bank.

Wealthy Minnesota businessman Stewart Mills is making a second attempt to unseat the Democratic congressman who defeated him by a point and a half in 2014. Mills’ 4th-quarter fundraising report shows him raising $258,000 for his bid for the 8th District. That’s more than Rep. Rick Nolan’s $187,000, even excluding Mills’ $11,000 contribution to his own campaign. Nolan still has some $400,000 more in the bank.

In another House rematch, vulnerable New Hampshire Republican Frank Guinta was outraised by his Democratic opponent. Guinta, however, has been in hot water for campaign finance violations, and his Democratic opponent, Carol Shea-Porter, is a former member of Congress.

Shea-Porter raised $211,000 to Guinta’s $71,000. Although Guinta maintains a cash-on-hand advantage over Shea-Porter, he’ll have to make it through a primary before facing Democratic competition. His primary opponent, businessman Dan Innis, also outraised him, though by only about $20,000.

It’s much more typical, of course, for rematch challengers to lag in fundraising. That’s been the case in Maine’s 2nd District, where freshman GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a member of the Financial Services Committee, has consistently raised more than Democrat Emily Cain, whom he defeated by 5 points in 2014. But only $61,000 separated their 4th quarter fundraising hauls. Thanks to a hefty 1st quarter haul, Poliquin’s cash on hand total still dwarfs Cain’s.

The same has been true in Texas’ 23rd District, the site of a rematch between Democratic former Rep. Pete Gallego and freshman GOP Rep. Will Hurd. Gallego raised $224,000 and has $424,000 in the bank. Hurd, as he has throughout the cycle, raised more, taking in $312,000 and leaving him with over $1 million in the bank.

In Illinois’ 10th District, Democratic former Rep. Brad Schneider has been raising serious money in his bid to take back the 10th District seat from Republican Rep. Robert J. Dold, but Dold is still raising more. The Republican raised $464,000 compared to Schneider’s $391,000. Dold also has more cash on hand.

Incumbency isn’t always a fundraising advantage. A number of challengers in competitive or closely-watched House races that aren’t rematches upended the incumbency-advantage narrative in the 3rd quarter. In Iowa’s 1st District, for example, Democrat Monica Vernon raised more than freshman Republican Rep. Rod Blum, one of the most vulnerable members of the House. She did so again in the 4th quarter.

In New Jersey’s 5th District, former Bill Clinton speech writer Josh Gottheimer again raised more than longtime GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, who angered some Republicans, including his Wall Street allies, when he said in July he wouldn’t contribute to the NRCC because of the committee’s support of gay candidates.

Tennessee GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais has been outraised before; he barely won his 2014 primary and is facing what some have described as a more daunting challenger in young Republican Grant Starrett this year. Starrett again outraised DesJarlais this quarter, although Starrett’s $92,000 4th quarter haul is less impressive than the $733,000 haul (including a $227,000 personal loan) he reported in his first fundraising report.

The 4th quarter saw several challengers post higher numbers than incumbents for the first time. In Michigan’s 7th District, for example, Democratic state Sen. Gretchen Driskell raised more than four-term Republican Tim Walberg. Walberg only raised a few thousand dollars more than Driskell in the previous quarter, but his cash on hand has now grown to more than $1 million, while Driskell has only $604,000 in the bank.

California Republican Steve Knight’s fundraising got off to a rough start this cycle. He took in only $29,000 during the first quarter of 2015, but as a member of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot Program for vulnerable members, he got a significant boost in the 2nd quarter, posting an impressive $405,000 haul. He slipped again in the 3rd quarter, though, raising just $77,000. In the final quarter of 2015, his haul returned to the six-figures. But Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio, who got in the race in December, managed to raise $35,000 more in less time.

Contact Pathé at simonepathe@rollcall.com and follow her on Twitter at @sfpathe.

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December 20, 2015

Races Where Spending Bill Vote Could Be an Issue

Neither the Republicans nor Democrats, whose Senate committee is led by Tester, above, see a clear political win from the omnibus vote.  (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Neither Republicans nor Democrats, whose Senate committee is led by Tester, see a clear political win from the omnibus vote. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Congress hadn’t even left town when political campaigns in some of the most competitive House and Senate races zeroed in on Friday’s vote on a massive government spending bill.

But rather than cleaving along partisan lines, Democrats and Republicans — incumbents and challengers alike — came down on both sides of the issue depending on their states and districts, suggesting national party committees aren’t likely to take up the vote in their national messaging. Full story

October 20, 2015

5 Races Where Deep Pockets Could Change the Game

MacArthur spent over $5 million last cycle, much of which was his own money. (Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

MacArthur spent more than $5 million last cycle, much of which was his own money. (Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

How much candidates have raised and how much money they have in the bank aren’t the only two numbers that matter in a quarterly fundraising report.

The depth of a candidate’s pockets and how deeply they’re willing to dig into them can be just as, or more, important.

Full story

October 17, 2015

Incumbency Isn’t Always an Advantage in Fundraising

insurgent-cash-flows-2

Because of the advantages of the office, senators tend to raise more than their primary and general election challengers. But not always.

Especially if the challenger also holds federal elected office or has previously.

Full story

August 26, 2015

In New Hampshire, Frank Guinta Soldiers On Amid Controversy

UNITED STATES - AUGUST 25: Rep. Frank Guinta, R-N.H., left, speaks during a business roundtable discussion on cyber security at Jenaly Technology in Portsmouth, N.H., on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Guinta speaks during a business roundtable discussion on cyber security at Jenaly Technology in Portsmouth, N.H. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — Embattled GOP Rep. Frank C. Guinta may be one of the most vulnerable congressional incumbents in the country, but you wouldn’t know it if you spent time with the Republican congressman in his district.

Instead of hiding out, Guinta’s had an active August recess, hosting town halls and visiting businesses in his southeastern New Hampshire-based 1st District as if the controversy swirling around him over campaign violations did not exist.

Full story

August 10, 2015

Carol Shea-Porter Files to Run Again in New Hampshire (Updated)

Shea-Porter, who has filed to run for her old seat, is seen here in 2013 speaking to the press after a briefing on Syria.   (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Shea-Porter, who has filed to run for her old seat, is seen here in 2013 speaking to the media after a briefing on Syria. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Updated 4:09 p.m. | Democratic former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter has filed to run again for her old New Hampshire 1st District seat, setting up what could be the fourth election between her and GOP Rep. Frank C. Guinta.

The conditional factor will be whether Guinta, who has refused to resign over a campaign finance scandal, stays in the race. He could still resign, in which case there would be a special election. Or he could choose not to seek re-election.

Full story

May 28, 2015

Carol Shea-Porter ‘Ready to Win’ N.H. Seat Back

Shea-Porter is contemplating a fourth rematch in New Hampshire. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Shea-Porter is signaling she wants a fourth rematch with Guinta next fall in New Hampshire. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire told supporters in an email Thursday she is “ready to win” back the seat she was ousted from in 2014.

Shea-Porter has been contemplating another rematch with Rep. Frank C. Guinta, the Republican she has sparred with since the 2010 cycle who is currently embattled in a campaign finance scandal. While it’s unclear whether Shea-Porter is running again in 2016, her declarative statement is a clear sign she is moving closer to another comeback bid in the Granite State’s 1st District.

Full story

May 18, 2015

Republicans Fear Guinta Scandal Could Imperil 2016

Guinta is facing mounting pressure to resign. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Guinta is facing pressure to resign. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Frank C. Guinta’s campaign finance troubles could expand from a personal headache to a partywide migraine for New Hampshire Republicans worried about holding his House seat next fall.

Last week, the Federal Election Commission found Guinta violated campaign finance rules by accepting more than $350,000 in illegal campaign contributions, ordering him to pay back the funds along with a $15,000 fine. Guinta has refused to admit wrongdoing, but New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte Monday became the highest-profile Republican to suggest the congressman step down.

Full story

April 1, 2015

The Year of the Rematch

Shea-Porter is contemplating a fourth rematch in New Hampshire. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Shea-Porter is contemplating a fourth House race rematch in New Hampshire’s 1st District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is seriously considering a run for Congress in New Hampshire’s 1st District in 2016 — setting up the possibility of yet another House rematch this cycle.

“I am so grateful to all of you who have been also asking me to run again for the United States House of Representatives,” Shea-Porter said recently in an email to supporters obtained by CQ Roll Call. “I received 48.2% of the vote in a very tough cycle, which mean we can win the seat in 2016 when more voters turn out. My team and I are hard at work looking at everything, and I will send you an email when a decision is made.”

Full story

February 13, 2015

Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program

Walden of Oregon is the NRCC chairman in 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee announced 12 members will kick-start its Patriot Program for the House GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents, according to a news release provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Eleven of the members were elected in 2014, when Republicans made huge gains across the country. The 12 members represent districts where Democrats typically perform well in presidential cycles, making them top targets in 2016.

Full story

December 30, 2014

10 Races to Watch in 2016: New Hampshire’s 1st District

frank guinta

Guinta will return to Congress after a two-year hiatus. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Will 2016 host another rematch between Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter?

Shea-Porter narrowly lost to Guinta this year, handing him the seat the two have traded back and forth for the three cycles. Despite this, the Democrat is not ruling out round four. Full story

November 4, 2014

6 Harbinger House Races for Election Night

house races

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel will have a bad night if his party loses these races. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Democrats are bracing for losses on Election Day, but just how bad of a night will it be?

A few races will serve as cues throughout the evening, as polls close across the country. They will be harbingers for House Republicans, who are looking at gains anywhere from six to a dozen seats.

Here are the bellwether House races to watch as results come in, in order of poll closing times:
Full story

October 31, 2014

The Recount Rules Guide for 2014

recount rules
(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

After the polls close Tuesday, it’s likely at least a handful of House and Senate races will be too close to call.

What would happen next for these tight contests? In most cases, once all the votes are collected and counted, it’s a pesky procedure that keeps candidates and canvassers up at night for days or weeks: the recount.

Recount laws vary by state, so we’ve rounded up what triggers one and any notable fine print in states with anticipated close contests.

ALASKA

Sen. Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call Race Rating: Tilts Republican

Trigger: Only an exact tie triggers a recount in the El Dorado of the North. But if the race does not end in a tie, a losing candidate or 10 qualified voters can still request a recount.

Fine Print: In a statewide election, the recount requestor must deposit $15,000 with the recount application, unless the margin is less than 0.5 percent, at which point the state covers the cost. The deposit is refunded if the recount changes the election results.

Full story

October 20, 2014

For House GOP, a Wave … Or a Trickle?

nrcc

Kirkpatrick is one of the most endangered Democrats this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.

Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.

“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.

Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front drag down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.

But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.

Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:

Full story

October 16, 2014

DCCC Cuts Massachusetts Media Buy (Updated)

Updated 8:37 p.m. | The Democratic House political arm is scrapping plans to spend a substantial sum of money on the Massachusetts 6th District race, but is still investing in the Boston media market on New Hampshire’s two competitive House races, according to a source tracking media buys.

A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide characterized the move as a sign of confidence Democrat Seth Moulton will be able to hold the open seat against Republican Richard Tisei.

The DCCC had more than $1 million reserved in the Boston media market combined between the Massachusetts 6th District and New Hamsphire’s 1st District and 2nd District. Full story

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