House Republicans Announce Vulnerable Incumbents for Patriot Program

Walden is the chairman of the NRCC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The House GOP’s campaign arm unveiled the first round of vulnerable incumbents for its Patriot program on Monday morning, suggesting which members it believes could need the most help in 2014.

However, these 11 new members in their incumbent-retention program have also signed a contract pledging they will reach certain communications, fundraising and strategy benchmarks to receive support later in the cycle.

“Our Members in the Patriot Program have proven that they are ready to run aggressive, organized campaigns,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon said in a press release.

A couple of names are notably absent from the list below, including Rep. Gary G. Miller, R-Calif., who represents a district that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent last November. House Democrats have already indicated Miller will be one of their top targets in 2014. Full story

New York: Chris Gibson Leads in Polls, but Margin Varies

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.) recently led his Democratic challenger by a little or a lot, depending on which pollster did the asking.

A new poll commissioned for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Gibson leading Julian Schreibman 43 percent to 41 percent with 16 percent of those likely voters surveyed undecided. The president led Mitt Romney by 7 points in the poll conducted by Democratic firm Grove Insight.

But a new poll commissioned for the independent expenditure arm of the National Republican Congressional Committee and obtained by Roll Call found Gibson leading Schreibman 47 percent to 39 percent, with 16 percent of those likely voters surveyed undecided. The president led Romney by 3 points in the poll conducted by Republican firm On Message Inc.

The breakdown of those surveyed in the Republican poll: 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 25 percent other. The breakdown of those surveyed in the Democratic poll: 32 percent Democratic; 35 percent Republican; 33 percent other.

In 2008, the president would have beaten Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by about 8 points in the district.

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Daily Ad Track

The biggest news in political ads over the weekend was a barrage of spots the National Republican Congressional Committee unleashed on a litany of Democrats around the country. Conversely, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee typically flags its media buys in a daily, piecemeal fashion.

Maine Senate

Former “Law & Order” star Sam Waterston followed through on his years-long crusade for moderates by appearing in a television spot for Independent former Gov. Angus King. According to a King spokeswoman, Waterston reached out to the campaign to offer help and the ad was shot in Maine. This spot has $50,000 behind it. Roll Call rates this race as Likely Independent.

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New York: DCCC Independent Expenditure Targets Chris Gibson

(Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm is set to launch a new ad on Thursday knocking freshman Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.).

The ad hits Gibson, who is running for re-election in the newly configured 19th district, for his support for the budget plan authored by Rep. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice presidential nominee. Hewing to the standard Democratic line of attack, the ad says Gibson voted to “essentially end Medicare,” quoting an oft-cited Wall Street Journal story from 2011. Republicans argue that Ryan’s plan will preserve Medicare for future generations.

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New York: Conflicting Polls Released in 19th District

It’s the battle of the polls in upstate New York.

This morning, a Republican poll showed freshman Rep. Chris Gibson (R) leading his Democratic challenger, Julian Schreibman, by 17 points. This afternoon, Schreibman’s campaign released a poll showing the Republican up by 10 points.

The Democratic poll found Gibson leading Schreibman, 42 percent to 32 percent. (The Republican poll found Gibson leading Schreibman, 53 percent to 36 percent.)

The second poll, conducted by respected pollster Jefrey Pollock of the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, found Schreibman to be largely unknown, with significant room to grow his name ID. It also found that Gibson was only familiar to 46 percent of voters in the district. Full story

New York: GOP Poll Shows Chris Gibson Ahead by Double Digits

Rep. Chris Gibson is one of several New York freshmen who are vulnerable. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Republican Rep. Chris Gibson led Democrat Julian Schreibman by 17 points in the reconfigured 19th district in upstate New York, according to a new GOP poll. Gibson got 53 percent to Schreibman’s 36 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided about the race.

A memo about the poll, conducted by respected Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Roll Call, also found the GOP leading the generic Congressional ballot. Full story

NRCC Hits California Dems in Ads; DCCC Robocalls on Health Care Repeal

The National Republican Congressional Committee will begin airing new ads Tuesday attacking California Democratic Reps. Lois Capps, John Garamendi and Jerry McNerney on the 2010 health care law, days after the Supreme Court ruled it to be constitutional.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began live-calling and robocalling residents in 10 targeted districts, knocking mostly Republican incumbents for wanting to repeal the health care law.