Remainders: Recruitment Season

Here’s what you may have missed “At the Races” on Thursday …

• Following a couple of Senate recruitment setbacks for both parties this week, Shira Toeplitz posted a timeline of when candidates announced their Senate bids in the 2012 cycle for comparison.
• Kyle Trygstad looked into whether former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., will jump into South Dakota’s open Senate race now that Democrat Rick Weiland announced his candidacy. It wouldn’t be the first time Herseth Sandlin and Weiland have faced off in a primary.
• Missouri state  Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith, a Republican, released his first ad in the special election to fill former Rep. Jo Ann Emerson’s seat.
• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a new program to cultivate strong candidates in targeted districts for 2014. The DCCC has tapped eight Democratic candidates for the program so far.

What we’re mulling on Thursday … Full story

McSally Inches Toward Rematch Against Barber #AZ02

McSally came close to beating Barber in 2012. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democrats got their hopes raised recently that retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally might be recruited to run for Arizona governor or to run to replace Republican Sen. John McCain in 2016 — instead of running for Congress in 2014. But it appears to be much ado about nothing.

Democrats were hoping that remarks McSally made in an amateur online video about Republicans recruiting her for other offices meant she was no longer serious about challenging Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in Arizona’s 2nd District. McSally nearly defeated Barber in the 2012 general election.

McSally seemed baffled in a phone interview about the Democratic reaction.

“I’m very strongly considering running for Congress,” she said, an almost verbatim comment she made in the video. Full story

NRCC Makes Small Ad Buys In Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota

Rep. Greg Walden is the NRCC chairman. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee has bought airtime in three television markets in the next week, according to a Democrat and a Republican who monitor media buys.

The small buys target competitive districts home to Democratic incumbents:

• Arizona’s 2nd District: $3,585 in the Tucson market targeting Rep. Ron Barber;
• Georgia’s 12th District: $2,750 in the Augusta media market targeting Rep. John Barrow; and
• Minnesota’s 7th District: $1,540 in Minneapolis media market targeting Rep. Collin C. Peterson.

These buys are minimal for television advertisements, but a well-placed GOP source cautioned the initial figures do not reflect the NRCC’s full upcoming advertising spending — and additional spending could be on the way soon.

DCCC Announces 26 Members on Frontline Incumbent Retention Program

Israel leads the DCCC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel named 26 of his colleagues to the Frontline program, a committee program designed to protect their most vulnerable incumbents.

“We call this program Frontline for a reason – these Members are on the vanguard of protecting and expanding the middle class,” Israel said in a written statement released Tuesday morning.

“While the 2014 campaign will be dominated by a strong offense taking on the Tea Party Republican Congress, our success begins with our Members,” added Israel, a Democrat from New York. “These battle-tested men and women have proven time and again that they can win because no one better reflects the values of their districts.”

Rep. Tim Walz, D-Minn. will spearhead the program as its chairman. He’s a Frontline alumnus as recently as the 2012 cycle.

Otherwise, the list includes several freshman members and Blue Dog Democrats:

Full story

Arizona: Barber Postured to Win Re-Election in 2nd District

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ballot returns over the past week indicate that Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is on the verge of defeating Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s 2nd District.

Democrats have been increasingly bullish on the numbers they are seeing for Barber, not just because his margin has increased to 923 votes, but because of the geography of the returns. The outstanding ballots to be counted are in Pima County, home to Tucson, which is Barber’s stronghold.

Even Republicans are beginning to that concede the outlook is grim. There is a sense in Arizona circles that The Associated Press is especially cautious to call this race, which explains why it is one of three races still outstanding after Election Day. The counting is expected to continue into next week. Full story

Day 9: Latest Update on Outstanding House Races

Patrick Murphy is on Capitol Hill this week for new member orientation even though his race against Rep. Allen B. West hasn't been called yet. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Democratic candidates continue to hold on to their small leads in the five outstanding House races. Here are the latest numbers as of Wednesday afternoon:

• Arizona’s 2nd
  Democratic Rep. Ron Barber has about a 650 vote lead over Republican Martha McSally, according to the Arizona Secretary of State Office’s latest numbers.

• California’s 7th
  Democrat Ami Bera is well ahead of Republican Rep. Dan Lungren by about 3,800 votes. Full story

Five House Races Still Outstanding

Rep. Ron Barber leads his GOP challenger, but the race has not yet been called. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Five House races remain unresolved almost a week after Election Day.

The two main developments since Friday in uncalled races were in California and Arizona. Earlier today, Democratic former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won the race against Republican Vernon Parker in Arizona’s 9th district. On Friday night, Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) formally conceded to Democrat Raul Ruiz. Here are the races still up in the air: Full story

Handful of House Races Still Uncalled

The 113th Congress isn’t set yet. The winners in six House races remain unclear.

Here’s an update on those races:

• In Arizona’s 2nd district, retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally (R) led Rep. Ron Barber (D), but there are early ballots and provisional ballots left to be counted. Both parties felt confident that the outcome of this race would be in their favor, but it might take a while to find out who is right. “It’s just gonna drag on there for a week or two,” one Arizona Democratic political insider said.
• In Arizona’s new 9th district, former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) led ex-Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (R) by about 2,700 votes, but many, many ballots remained to be counted, and the race has not yet been called by the Associated Press.
• In California’s 7th district, physician Ami Bera (D) led Rep. Dan Lungren (R) by the slimmest of margins — 184 votes, according to the AP. A margin like that could make this race ripe for a recount, which must be requested by one of the candidates. Full story

Gabrielle Giffords, Mark Kelly, Ron Barber to Confront Jared Lee Loughner at Sentencing

When Jared Lee Loughner appears in court Thursday for his sentencing, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) will be there to see it. Giffords’s husband, Mark Kelly, plans to directly address the man who seriously injured his wife and killed six people, ABC News reported Wednesday evening.

Others survivors expected to speak include Rep. Ron Barber, who was an aide to Giffords and replaced her in the House, and former Giffords aide Pam Simon.

KPHO in Phoenix reported that shooting survivor Mavy Stoddard also plans to be among those to confront Loughner, who reached a plea agreement with federal prosecutors in August that spared him the death penalty. He is expected to spend the rest of his life in prison.

Ann Kirkpatrick Wins in Arizona; Six House Races Still Outstanding

It’s official: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is coming back to Congress.

She led GOP rival Jonathan Paton by about 7,000 votes at the time the Associated Press called the race late on Wednesday afternoon.

Redistricting improved the district for Democrats, but Kirkpatrick’s road back to Congress was not assured. She had a strong start to her campaign, but Republicans blitzed Arizona television with negative advertising against her.

In other races that were called Wednesday afternoon, Democrats and Republicans traded gains. Full story

Arizona: Gabrielle Giffords’ Husband Belittles Martha McSally’s Claim

Updated 10:31 a.m. | Col. Mark Kelly, the husband of retired Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), wrote an email Friday evening that was critical of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally, the Republican running for the House seat formerly held by his wife.

Kelly has backed McSally’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Ron Barber, since his first run for Congress in a June special election to replace Giffords.

According to an email sent to Barber’s list of supporters, a comment McSally made to the Washington Post sparked Kelly’s ire.

“We are rugged individuals,” she told the Post. “We elect unique people to represent us in this district — Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, Gabby Giffords. I resemble Gabby Giffords more than the man who worked for her, although I am grateful for his service.”

In an email with the subject line “I cannot believe this,” Kelly proceeded to express outrage at McSally for comparing herself to Giffords.

“Martha McSally is no Gabby Giffords.  Time and time again, she has refused to give a straight answer when asked directly about the most important issues facing Southern Arizona,” he wrote.

Full story

Daily Ad Track

Forget gutter politics. One ad today is so nasty it is going straight to the toilet.

Florida 22

This ad is why we try to avoid labeling Daily Ad Track with words like “best.” At first, this ad from Republican Adam Hasner seems like a normal checklist of negative points against Democrat Lois Frankel. But at the end, it takes a grody turn. The Hasner camp did not immediately return a call requesting buy information, but the biggest question we have is, will this ad air during dinner time?

Full story

Arizona: NRCC Makes Ad Buy to Target Ron Barber

National Republicans are buying ad time to boost Martha McSally in an Arizona race that is currently not seen as that competitive. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Campaign is going up on TV in Arizona’s 2nd district, making a play for the seat Rep. Ron Barber (D) won in a special election earlier this year.

The NRCC has placed a six-figure buy in the Tucson media market in support of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally (R), according to several sources who monitor media buys. The broadcast buy is $255,000 and will last from October 5-18.

This news comes hours after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it was confident enough in the race to pull a week’s worth of advertising in Tucson and a day after House Majority PAC, a super PAC that supports Democratic House candidates, went into the market.

The House Majority PAC spot was a negative spot that links McSally to Wall Street. The NRCC ad is expected to be a negative portrayal of the incumbent. Barber has already been through the ringer with negative ads from the special election race, so it will be interesting to see how, or whether,  these numbers move over the next couple of weeks. Full story

DCCC Cancels Three Weeks of Buys in Seats It Feels Are Safe

House Democrats have canceled advertisement buys in three House races where the party’s nominee is on a clear path to victory.

In Arizona’s 2nd district, New Mexico’s 1st district and Florida’s 26th district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cut its weeklong reservation starting Oct. 18, according to a Democratic source with firsthand knowledge of the changes.

Campaign committees continue to shuffle funds among House races, often moving resources away from hopeless campaigns to more competitive ones in the weeks leading up to Election Day. But committee officials argue these cancellations target races where they are sure the Democrat will prevail:

• In Arizona’s 2nd district, the DCCC canceled $85,000 worth of  Tucson broadcast television. Rep. Ron Barber (D) faces retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally (R) in this district, which Roll Call rates as Likely Democratic.
• In New Mexico’s 1st district, the DCCC canceled $135,000 worth of Albuquerque broadcast television. Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) are vying for this open seat, which Roll Call rates as Safe Democratic.
• In Florida’s 26th district, the DCCC canceled $280,000 worth of Miami broadcast television. Rep. David Rivera (R) is reportedly under federal investigation (although the Congressman denies any wrongdoing). Polls show the Republican trailing his opponent, former Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman Joe Garcia (D). Roll Call rates this race as Leans Democratic.

The National Republican Congressional Committee had not reserved any airtime for these three House races.

Earlier this week, the DCCC trimmed $260,000 in ad time in another safe seat: Rep. Tim Walz’s district. Roll Call rates this race as Safe Democratic.

Liberal Super PACs Announce New House Race Advertising

Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle is among the Republicans being targeted by a new liberal super PAC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A super PAC led by Jonathan Soros, the son of liberal financier George Soros, today announced the eight lawmakers it will target via direct mail, phone contact and Internet advertising.

The New York Times has described the group, Friends of Democracy, as “The Super PAC That Aims to End Super PACs.” Earlier this year, the Times reported that the group was targeting “10 to 15 House lawmakers whose records and public statements have not been supportive of what Mr. Soros calls a system of ‘citizen-led’ elections.”

Full story