Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listen Sunday during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. With two days before Election Day, Romney is campaigning in swing states across the country. (Emmanuel Dunando/AFP/Getty Images)
Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.
First, the Senate math:
Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.
Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story
More often than not, the newest Republican television ads have accused Democrats of cutting Medicare by $716 billion to help pay for President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, otherwise referred to as “Obamacare.”
Democrats have vigorously disputed the charge, which surfaced during Wednesday evening’s presidential debate between Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Some media outlets that submit political attacks to fact-checking reviews have sided with the Democrats on this issue. But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from employing this line of attack, which paid dividends in 2010 and might again Nov. 6.
Meanwhile, House and Senate candidates have been running either attack ads or spots responding to attacks.
Here’s what broke through the clutter today:
Paging whomever owns the copyright to the Temptations’ “My Girl”…
Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) was up with this ad that plays over a slightly altered version of the Motown classic in an attempt to tie his Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Dave Crooks, to Obama.
New York 24
How do you respond when accused of being soft on women’s issues? Look directly into the camera and make your case. At least, that’s how Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) is responding to an ad that her opponent, former Rep. Dan Maffei (D), put on the air earlier this week. Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon responded similarly last week.
The Buerkle campaign did not immediately respond to a request for buy information.
For more than a year, there was consensus among Democrats and, privately, Republicans that Walsh stood very little chance of winning the redrawn, Democratic-leaning district. The controversial conservative barely won a first term, and now he’s facing one of Illinois Democrats’ most-beloved candidates.
The super PAC’s spot “displays a positive side of the Congressman,” according to a press release. Walsh attracted a fair amount of poor press during this term for a six-figure child support lawsuit eventually settled outside court.
“Joe Walsh is a different kind of Congressman,” the spot says. “He turned down his Congressional health care and pension so the taxpayers didn’t have to foot the bill.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee and other GOP-aligned outside groups launched a new round of television advertising over the weekend in a bevy of House races.
With seven weeks to go until Election Day, the NRCC on Sunday released 10 new TV ads — six in districts the group is working to hold and four in districts the GOP hopes to pick up. Democrats must score a net gain of 25 seats in November to wrestle back control of the House majority. Full story
The fiscally conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition will add three more candidates to its roster of endorsed candidates today, Roll Call has learned.
The Blue Dogs, who lost two Pennsylvania Members in Democratic primaries Tuesday, endorsed former state Rep. Dave Crooks in Indiana’s 8th district; former state Rep. Pam Gulleson in North Dakota’s at-large district; and former state Rep. Gary McDowell in Michigan’s 1st district.
“In Dave, Pam, and Gary, the Blue Dogs have added three impressive candidates with a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility and representing the commonsense center of American politics,” Blue Dog PAC co-chairman Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) said in a statement. “Each of them brings unique backgrounds and experiences to the Blue Dogs, and we look forward to working with them in the our efforts to streamline government and encourage business growth and job creation.”
The Blue Dog PAC has endorsed eight other candidates this cycle: former Reps. Nick Lampson (Texas) and Charlie Wilson (Ohio) and Leonard Bembry (Fla.), Clark Hall (Ark.), Brendan Mullen (Ind.), Hayden Rogers (N.C.), Ted Vick (S.C.) and Rob Wallace (Okla.).