Ann Kirkpatrick Wins in Arizona; Six House Races Still Outstanding

It’s official: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is coming back to Congress.

She led GOP rival Jonathan Paton by about 7,000 votes at the time the Associated Press called the race late on Wednesday afternoon.

Redistricting improved the district for Democrats, but Kirkpatrick’s road back to Congress was not assured. She had a strong start to her campaign, but Republicans blitzed Arizona television with negative advertising against her.

In other races that were called Wednesday afternoon, Democrats and Republicans traded gains. Full story

Race Rating Changes: The Final Push

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listen Sunday during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. With two days before Election Day, Romney is campaigning in swing states across the country. (Emmanuel Dunando/AFP/Getty Images)

Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.

First, the Senate math:

Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.

Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story

Michigan: Facing Stiff Challenge, Strong 3rd Quarter for Benishek Coffers

Rep. Dan Benishek reported raising $510,000 in the third quarter. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

If freshman Republican Rep. Dan Benishek is losing his grasp on Michigan’s 1st district, his campaign coffers don’t show it.

His campaign announced its best fundraising quarter ever today, raising a total of $510,000 from July 1 to Sept. 30 to close the period with more than $570,000 in cash on hand.

His opponent, former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D), reported raising just $400,000. But heading into the final weeks of the campaign, he is sitting on $600,000.

Recent polls suggest McDowell has gained ground on Benishek, a tea-party-backed physician who rode the 2010 Republican wave to Congress and is one of his party’s most vulnerable lawmakers. The Detroit Free Press endorsed McDowell on Sunday.

Full story

Crossroads GPS Launches House Blitz Across the Country

The juggernaut GOP-affiliated group Crossroads GPS will soon announce a massive $8.1 million television and radio effort for House Republicans slated to begin Saturday and run for three weeks.

The group will target races in 11 districts from the West Coast to the central plains to just north of New York City.

The targeted seats are:

• California’s new 21st district, where state Assemblyman David Valadao (R) faces Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO John Hernandez (D)
• Illinois’ open 12th district, where retired businessman Jason Plummer (R) faces retired Maj. Gen. Bill Enyart (D)
• Illinois’ 17th district, where Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) faces former East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos (D)
• Indiana’s open 2nd district, where former state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) faces Iraq War veteran Brendan Mullen (D)
• Iowa’s 3rd district, where Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) faces Rep. Tom Latham (R)
• Iowa’s 4th district, where Rep. Steve King (R) faces former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack (D)
• Michigan’s 1st district, where Rep. Dan Benishek (D) faces former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D)
• Nevada’s new 4th district, where businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) faces state Sen. Steven Horsford (D)
• New York’s 1st district where Rep. Tim Bishop (D) faces businessman Randy Altschuler (R)
• New York’s 18th district, where Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) faces attorney Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
• New York’s 25th district, where Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) faces Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks (R)

Daily Ad Track

In our unscientific ad-track survey from today, we caught almost no new advertisements that could be classified as positive. Lots of cookie-cutter negative ads are surfacing, slamming the other campaign over Medicare, Congressional pay raises and information that appears culled from opposition research. Grainy footage and clipped out-of-context sound bites are also increasingly common.

Full story

Liberal Super PACs Announce New House Race Advertising

Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle is among the Republicans being targeted by a new liberal super PAC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A super PAC led by Jonathan Soros, the son of liberal financier George Soros, today announced the eight lawmakers it will target via direct mail, phone contact and Internet advertising.

The New York Times has described the group, Friends of Democracy, as “The Super PAC That Aims to End Super PACs.” Earlier this year, the Times reported that the group was targeting “10 to 15 House lawmakers whose records and public statements have not been supportive of what Mr. Soros calls a system of ‘citizen-led’ elections.”

Full story

Republicans Launch New Round of Ads in House Races

The National Republican Congressional Committee and other GOP-aligned outside groups launched a new round of television advertising over the weekend in a bevy of House races.

With seven weeks to go until Election Day, the NRCC on Sunday released 10 new TV ads — six in districts the group is working to hold and four in districts the GOP hopes to pick up. Democrats must score a net gain of 25 seats in November to wrestle back control of the House majority. Full story

NRCC Punches Back on Medicare in North Carolina’s 7th

A new NRCC ad pushes back against Rep. Mike McIntyre. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 1:10 p.m. | The National Republican Congressional Committee launched a counterpunch ad in North Carolina’s 7th district knocking incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) for his vote against the controversial budget of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan (R), providing a window into how Republicans will fight back against Democratic attacks that GOP candidates want to “essentially end Medicare.”

The new NRCC television ad begins with a short clip of a recent DCCC ad in a TV box in which the narrator said, “David Rouzer’s budget would essentially end Medicare.”

Then a male narrator’s deep voice says, “Hold it!” as those words appear over the TV. “The truth: David Rouzer will preserve, protect and strengthen Medicare. But career politician [Rep.] Mike McIntyre doesn’t want you to know: He voted against giving prescription drug benefits to millions of seniors,” the NRCC narrator says.

“And since Obama’s been president, McIntyre’s voted against every plan to save Medicare from going bankrupt. Isn’t it time Mike McIntyre put seniors before politics? You decide,” the narrator says.

Full story

Michigan: House Democrats Air Second Spot Against Dan Benishek

House Democrats will start airing their second spot today targeting freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Mich.) in the competitive 1st district race.

Democrats shifted their line of attack in this advertisement, targeting Benishek for voting “to give Members of Congress taxpayer-funded health care. For life,” an announcer says.

Benishek faces a rematch with former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) in one of the highest-profile races in the country. Roll Call rates the contest as a Tossup.

Like every House Republican, Benishek voted in July to repeal the health care overhaul law. Part of that law requires Members of Congress to receive health care from public insurance exchanges instead of the current federal employee program.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will spend $51,000 to air the spot in the Marquette market, according to a source with knowledge of the buy. House Democrats already aired a spot targeting Benishek on Medicare in the nearby Traverse City market last week — their first independent expenditure of the fall campaign advertisement season.

Michigan: DCCC Starts Airing Ads in 1st District

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will air its first spot of the fall election season today, when it targets freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R) with an independent expenditure.

House Democrats beat the National Republican Congressional Committee to the punch in the fall advertisement wars. The NRCC confirmed last week it would start airing advertisements for the fall campaign on Friday in four House districts.

Benishek faces his 2010 opponent, former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D), this November. Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup.

The committee will spend $73,000 to air this spot through Labor Day, according to a source familiar with the buy. This buy is in addition to the DCCC’s $515,000 reservation in television time in the 1st district through Election Day.

House Race Ratings: Changes in Michigan and Washington

Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was pleased with the outcome of Tuesday's primaries. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Democrats had a productive primary night Tuesday. But how good was it, really?

In Michigan, Democrats nominated their strongest possible general election candidate, a self-funding former state lawmaker, to challenge freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R) in the 3rd district. Another potential opportunity was solidified in the vacant 11th district, where Republicans nominated a libertarian reindeer rancher who is untested and unvetted as a candidate. Finally, on the West Coast, Democrats nominated the best possible candidate, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, in Washington’s vacant 1st district.

“We were presented with some good opportunities last night,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) boasted to reporters Wednesday. “Make no mistake about it: Michigan was a huge loss for Republicans and a real opportunity for Democrats.”

Full story

Michigan: Democratic Poll Shows Gary McDowell Within 2 Points of Dan Benishek

Updated 5:33 p.m. | A new Democratic poll of Michigan’s 1st district showed former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) within 2 points of freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R).

Benishek barely leads McDowell, 40 percent to 38 percent, with 22 percent of respondents undecided, according to a survey paid for by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and released to Roll Call.

The poll is the most recent indication Democrats can compete in the northern Michigan House district this cycle. It’s one of the must-win seats for House Democrats if they want to make inroads into the GOP’s 25-seat majority this November. Full story

Michigan: Filing Deadline Arrives With No Surprises

Rep. Tim Walberg (R) will not have a top challenger for his re-election race this November, leaving Democrats with a major recruitment hole in the Michigan map.

Instead, Democrats will focus their efforts on a rerun race between freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R) and former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) in the state’s Upper Peninsula.

The Wolverine State’s Congressional races were set today, when the candidate filing period closed at 4 p.m. There were no major surprises among the dozens of petitions, including Walberg’s race. A couple of weeks ago, former GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz declined to challenge Walberg as a Democrat.

Michigan shed a House seat due to population loss, and Republicans led a redraw of the state’s Congressional boundaries last year. As a result, a few Democrats filed to run for re-election in new territory around Detroit.

Full story

Blue Dogs Endorse Three More Candidates

The fiscally conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition will add three more candidates to its roster of endorsed candidates today, Roll Call has learned.

The Blue Dogs, who lost two Pennsylvania Members in Democratic primaries Tuesday, endorsed former state Rep. Dave Crooks in Indiana’s 8th district; former state Rep. Pam Gulleson in North Dakota’s at-large district; and former state Rep. Gary McDowell in Michigan’s 1st district.

“In Dave, Pam, and Gary, the Blue Dogs have added three impressive candidates with a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility and representing the commonsense center of American politics,” Blue Dog PAC co-chairman Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) said in a statement. “Each of them brings unique backgrounds and experiences to the Blue Dogs, and we look forward to working with them in the our efforts to streamline government and encourage business growth and job creation.”

The Blue Dog PAC has endorsed eight other candidates this cycle: former Reps. Nick Lampson (Texas) and Charlie Wilson (Ohio) and Leonard Bembry (Fla.), Clark Hall (Ark.), Brendan Mullen (Ind.), Hayden Rogers (N.C.), Ted Vick (S.C.) and Rob Wallace (Okla.).

Fundraising Numbers Continue to Trickle In

First-quarter fundraising numbers continue to trickle in as the Sunday deadline to file reports with the Federal Election Commission approaches.

The first fundraising period of election years offers indications of which candidates are gaining momentum heading into primary season. It’s the last quarterly report before about half the states hold their Congressional primaries.

This is another daily roundup of candidates who released their numbers in the past 24 hours. It’s heavy on Democrats, who are looking to hold the Senate and win back the House majority.

Senate:

• Arizona: Former Surgeon General Dr. Richard Carmona raised $800,000 in his first full quarter as a candidate. He has $1.1 million in cash on hand. The large amount shows that the fundraising prowess he showed in the fourth quarter was more than just low-hanging fruit.
  
• Connecticut: Rep. Christopher Murphy (D) brought in $855,000 for his Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I). He will report about $3 million in the bank. Full story