Race Ratings Changes: Indiana Senate Moves to Tossup; Mix of House Moves

Rep. Leonard Boswell has been helped by spending from outside groups in his Iowa race. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

This is arguably the most volatile period for the House battleground map, as partisan operatives are making their final ad spending decisions and beginning to move money away from some races to put more resources into other contests.

The Senate map is much less fluid, yet this is the time when some races begin to fade in terms of their competitiveness and others become more so. In recent weeks we’ve seen the New Mexico Senate contest move to the less competitive category, while Connecticut and Indiana are now fully in play. We are still monitoring developments in Connecticut (and could make another ratings change there soon), but new polling in Indiana confirmed for us that a ratings change was due. Full story

Michigan: Kerry Bentivolio Wins GOP Nod for Special Election

Reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio will get a head start on Congress if he wins in November.

The Republican won the GOP nomination for the same-day special election for former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R) seat Wednesday night, defeating the same candidate he beat last month for his party’s nod in the general election.

McCotter’s resignation prompted a special election to replace him for the final few weeks in Congress later this year. Bentivolio remained the only Republican on the ballot in the August primary and defeated a write-in candidate, former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, for the GOP nod.

On Wednesday night, Bentivolio defeated Cassis again in the special election primary — this time with her name on the ballot — as well as three other candidates. He will face UAW official Dave Curson in the special election in November. On the same day he’ll face Democrat Syed Taj, a doctor and Canton Township trustee, for a seat in the 113th Congress.

Michigan: Kerry Bentivolio’s Teaching Troubles

Kerry Bentivolio, the GOP nominee in Michigan’s 11th district, had trouble as a high school teacher, according to a new Detroit Free Press report.

Fowlerville High School officials reportedly reprimanded Bentivolio for telling students they were “just a paycheck to me,” threatening to make them cry and pounding on their desks.

Bentivolio faces internist Syed Taj (D) this November in the suburban district west of Detroit. Republicans viewed the district as a safe bet until recently, when a strange series of events made this the most unpredictable House race of the cycle. Roll Call rates the contest as Leans Republican. Full story

Four Thaddeus McCotter Staffers Charged Following AG Investigation

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Four staffers for former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-Mich.) will face criminal charges for filing fraudulent ballot petitions on behalf of the former Congressman’s re-election bid.

Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette announced today the details of the charges against the accused, which include 34 felony and misdemeanor crimes.

“This was not simply keystone cops run amok — serious criminal acts were committed, and following a thorough and complete investigation, felony charges have been filed,” Schuette said in a statement. Full story

House Race Ratings: Changes in Michigan and Washington

Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was pleased with the outcome of Tuesday's primaries. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Democrats had a productive primary night Tuesday. But how good was it, really?

In Michigan, Democrats nominated their strongest possible general election candidate, a self-funding former state lawmaker, to challenge freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R) in the 3rd district. Another potential opportunity was solidified in the vacant 11th district, where Republicans nominated a libertarian reindeer rancher who is untested and unvetted as a candidate. Finally, on the West Coast, Democrats nominated the best possible candidate, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, in Washington’s vacant 1st district.

“We were presented with some good opportunities last night,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) boasted to reporters Wednesday. “Make no mistake about it: Michigan was a huge loss for Republicans and a real opportunity for Democrats.”

Full story

Michigan: AG Will File Charges in Thaddeus McCotter Petition Scandal Thursday, Per Report

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette will file charges Thursday in the case of former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R) erroneous ballot petitions, the Detroit Free Press reported.

Schuette is scheduled to announce those criminal charges Thursday, and multiple people will face felony and misdemeanor charges, per the report.

McCotter dropped his re-election bid in June after he failed to file the requisite 1,000 signatures to make the Republican ballot. But his petition errors were so egregious that the attorney general opened an investigation into them.

The Free Press report said it’s unclear whether McCotter will be charged on Thursday. Full story

Michigan: Nancy Cassis Will Not Support Kerry Bentivolio if He Is Nominee

NOVI, Mich. — Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis will not support her primary opponent if he wins the 11th district Republican nomination next week.

“Not after what I’ve seen,” she told Roll Call over a late breakfast at Big Boy restaurant last week. “I couldn’t in good conscience.”

Cassis is running a write-in campaign to defeat Kerry Bentivolio, an Iraq veteran and reindeer rancher who is the only Republican on the Aug. 7 primary ballot. They are running in the 11th district in the suburbs and exurbs west of Detroit.

Former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) prompted the divisive primary earlier this summer when he filed faulty ballot petitions and did not have enough signatures to make the ballot. A few weeks later, McCotter resigned from Congress. Full story

Michigan: Kerry Bentivolio Nabs Rand Paul Endorsement

LIVONIA, Mich. — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) backed reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio’s (R) bid for the 11th district today.

Paul’s endorsement lends Bentivolio’s campaign additional credibility ahead of the Aug. 7 primary.

Bentivolio is the only Republican on primary ballot, but local GOP officials are supporting former state Sen. Nancy Cassis (R) as a write-in candidate because they view her as a more viable candidate.

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) resigned from the 11th district seat earlier this month after failing gather enough signatures to make the ballot.

This marks Bentivolio’s second Congressional endorsement. He already picked up the support of freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.).

Michigan Republican Reps. Tim Walberg and Mike Rogers backed Cassis.

The district leans Republican, according to Roll Call’s race ratings. But that could change depending on the primary results.

Michigan: Nancy Cassis Banks Second Congressional Endorsement

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) backed former state Sen. Nancy Cassis (R) in the 11th district Monday, marking the write-in candidate’s second Congressional endorsement.

Cassis faces an uphill climb to defeat reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio, the only Republican on the Aug. 7 primary ballot.

Full story

Michigan: Count Cassis in for Special Election

Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis (R) will run in the special election for former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R-Mich.) seat, her campaign confirmed Wednesday.

Cassis joins reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio (R) in the special primary on Sept. 5, the winner of which will run in the Nov. 6 special election to serve out the final few weeks of McCotter’s term.

The special primary marks the second time in a month the two Republicans will face each other for the west Detroit district. After McCotter dropped his re-election bid, Bentivolio was the only candidate left on the Aug. 7 Republican ballot.

Many local GOP officials are supporting Cassis as a write-in candidate for a full term on the GOP ballot instead.

Full story

Michigan: Special Election for Thaddeus McCotter’s Seat Up in Air

Gov. Rick Snyder (R) kept his fellow Michigan Republicans waiting Monday for word on whether he’d call a special election in the newly vacant 11th district.

The governor’s office will continue to review the Wolverine State’s election law before making a decision, according to his spokeswoman.

The 11th district is vacant following Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R) resignation Friday. The quirky Congressman’s move further complicates an already unique race to replace him. Full story

Michigan: Thaddeus McCotter Resigns From Congress

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 6:30 p.m. | Michigan Republican Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, who ran a quixotic presidential bid and then failed to get enough signatures to appear on the GOP ballot for his 6th term, announced late today he had resigned from office.

“Today I have resigned from the office of United States Representative for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District,” he said in a statement sent out by his campaign and posted to Facebook. Full story

Michigan: Freshman Justin Amash Backs Kerry Bentivolio

Reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio (R) picked up the backing of freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) today in the primary race in the 11th district.

“Having spent time with Kerry over the last few weeks and having listened to his vision for our country, I believe that Kerry is someone we can count on to do what’s right, not just what’s easy,” Amash said in a statement released by Bentivolio’s campaign.

The endorsement comes one day after Bentivolio’s campaign announced it was on the air with a TV ad. It’s yet another sign the once-unknown Republican aims to run a competitive race for the GOP primary against former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a write-in candidate.

Earlier this month, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) dropped his re-election bid after his campaign submitted ballot petitions filled with errors and duplicate names. Bentivolio was then the only Republican left on the party’s ballot, but local GOP officials started searching for a new write-in candidate to support in the Aug. 7 primary.

Michigan GOP officials settled on Cassis, who sources say plans to put $200,000 of her own money into the race.

Michigan: Kerry Bentivolio Releases First TV Ad in GOP Race

Reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio released his first television spot in the primary for the seat of retiring Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R).

It’s the strongest indication yet that the relatively unknown Republican is ready to fight former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a write-in candidate, for the GOP nomination on Aug. 7.

After McCotter dropped his bid because of faulty ballot petitions, only a single Republican remained on the 11th district GOP ballot — Bentivolio. In early June, local Republican officials opted to support Cassis’ write-in bid instead of Bentivolio. Full story

Michigan: NRCC Meets Both Hopefuls for Thaddeus McCotter’s Seat

So, this is kind of awkward: Both GOP candidates running for Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R) seat are in town to meet with the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Except one of them is on the primary ballot, and one of them isn’t. Full story