An internal poll conducted by Rep. Chip Cravaack's campaign showed him ahead of his Democratic challenger. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Updated 11:55 a.m. | With a week to go before Election Day, two competing polls from Minnesota’s 8th district show vastly different pictures of the tossup race between Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) and former Rep. Rick Nolan (D).
An internal poll conducted by Cravaack’s campaign showed the Republican incumbent ahead of Nolan by 10 points. The poll of 400 likely voters had Cravaack with 50 percent of the vote to Nolan’s 40 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points and it was conducted Oct. 24 and Oct. 25.
At the same time, a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,020 likely voters showed Nolan in the lead with 48 percent to Cravaack’s 44 percent, just slightly outside of the 3.8 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Oct. 25 and Oct. 26.
Rep. Chip Cravaack (above) trails opponent Rick Nolan in a poll released today. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) could have the edge over Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) in the 8th district, according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll released today that showed the challenger with a 7-point lead.
Nolan led Cravaack 50 percent to 43 percent, according to the newspaper’s poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted Oct. 16. The poll has a margin of error of 3 points.
The new poll showing Nolan in the lead is in stark contrast to three polls released earlier in the month, each of which showed the race to be deadlocked. The Nolan campaign is claiming the momentum in this. The Cravaack campaign disputed the findings of the Star Tribune poll.
Rep. Chip Cravaack is getting a boost from a Republican political action committee. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Republican-aligned American Action Network is investing another $500,000 into Minnesota’s hotly contested 8th district race on behalf of freshman GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack, Roll Call has learned.
With the additional reservation, AAN is now scheduled to spend $1 million from today through Election Day to help Cravaack survive a stiff challenge from former Rep. Rick Nolan (D). That includes $700,000 in television time in Minneapolis, $200,000 in Duluth and $100,000 online. The group had already spent $700,000 on the race. Full story
Rep. Chip Cravaack (above) faces former Rep. Rick Nolan in Minnesota's 8th district. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
The battle for Minnesota’s 8th district is deadlocked, according to three polls released since Oct. 1, although survey data suggest that the Democratic challenger in this race has the momentum.
The nonpartisan SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 7-9 found the contest statistically tied, with former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) garnering 46 percent of the vote to Rep. Chip Cravaack’s (R) 45 percent. The poll surveyed 700 registered voters, including 578 who were also classified as likely to vote, and the poll had a margin of error of 4.2 points.
Of the people who said they would vote for President Barack Obama, 88 percent said they would vote for the officially endorsed Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party candidate, who happens to be Nolan. In the Democratic-leaning 8th district, this could mean trouble for Cravaack, who will need split-ticket voters to tip the scales in his favor.
Thanks to a slew of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC ads, Ad Track has been fairly Democratic-heavy. But today, the National Republican Congressional Committee returned the favor with a burst of new spots.
Iowa’s 2nd
Add Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) to the category of victims of the idiot doppelganger.
A common theme over the last month or so has been to illustrate a criticism of one’s opponent with an actor portraying the candidate in an unflattering light. In a new NRCC ad, he is portrayed as sleeping on the job. Loebsack faces a challenge from Republican attorney John Archer.
And a Republican operative explained a DCCC ad in New Hampshire’s 2nd district that was initially puzzling. That DCCC spot sought to tie Rep. Charles Bass (R) to various prominent Republicans. But one face in the parade of conservative notables was freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R). It is hard to believe that many New Hampshire voters would know who Cravaack is, let alone have a visceral distaste for him.
So why Cravaack? Like Bass, Cravaack is vulnerable, and the DCCC has hammered Cravaack over the last year over the fact that his wife and children relocated to New Hampshire.
Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) is challenging Cravaack in Minnesota’s 8th, while Kuster is running against Bass. Roll Call rates both races as Tossup.
Illinois’ 8th
Forget vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan and his budget, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) or President Barack Obama. The NRCC has a new spot that ties veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) to one of the lowest figures in American politics — incarcerated former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Duckworth is challenging Rep. Joe Walsh (R).
Utah’s 4th
Another new NRCC ad does something rarely seen from Republicans — it rails on Rep. Jim Matheson (D) for at one time supporting the privatization of Social Security. Former President George W. Bush unsuccessfully pushed that policy in his second term. Republican Mia Love is challenging Matheson for this seat.
Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle is among the Republicans being targeted by a new liberal super PAC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
A super PAC led by Jonathan Soros, the son of liberal financier George Soros, today announced the eight lawmakers it will target via direct mail, phone contact and Internet advertising.
The New York Times has described the group, Friends of Democracy, as “The Super PAC That Aims to End Super PACs.” Earlier this year, the Times reported that the group was targeting “10 to 15 House lawmakers whose records and public statements have not been supportive of what Mr. Soros calls a system of ‘citizen-led’ elections.”
All over the country, biographical television spots are giving way to negative attack ads.
The Susan B. Anthony List announced Thursday the initiation of a $150,000 TV ad campaign against President Barack Obama in Ohio. It intends to include in that campaign an ad it previously aired in Missouri, which featured an abortion survivor.
But the ad that caught our attention was a negative spot from Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.).
Here are some of our other favorite ads from today:
Meanwhile, supporters of House Democrats are going negative on West. House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, announced it was increasing its investment in the district to more than $1.5 million. This comes after the news that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was canceling a week of airtime starting Oct. 9.
The National Republican Congressional Committee and other GOP-aligned outside groups launched a new round of television advertising over the weekend in a bevy of House races.
With seven weeks to go until Election Day, the NRCC on Sunday released 10 new TV ads — six in districts the group is working to hold and four in districts the GOP hopes to pick up. Democrats must score a net gain of 25 seats in November to wrestle back control of the House majority. Full story
Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) this evening came one step closer to returning to Congress after a 32-year hiatus when he won his party’s nomination in the 8th district.
Nolan led former state Sen. Tarryl Clark, 40 percent to 32 percent, with 80 percent of precincts reporting.
Nolan’s victory sets him up to face freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) this November. The 8th district is highly competitive, and both parties have reserved millions of dollars in airtime for the Minneapolis market for this contest and adjacent races.
Nolan struggled with fundraising throughout the primary but prevailed in part with some financial help from the state party. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party aired almost $160,000 in television spots on Nolan’s behalf.
The party backed Nolan over Clark earlier this year.
Rep. Chip Cravaack awaits the winner of Minnesota's 8th district Democratic primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
If there’s one primary to watch in the Gopher State today, it’s the Democratic contest in the 8th district, where three candidates are facing off for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) this November.
Cravaack’s district represents the Democrats’ best shot at picking up a seat in Minnesota. Roll Call rates the 8th district race as a Tossup.
The district also features the most contentious primary on the ballot.
The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party backed former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) for the seat earlier this year. The party recently started airing advertisements on his behalf. But Nolan’s fundraising has struggled despite the support of the delegation.
Meanwhile, former state Sen. Tarryl Clark (D) has raised money at a fast clip. She’s also buoyed by an endorsement from President Bill Clinton, who is featured in her latest spot.
Most Democrats expect Nolan or Clark to prevail, although Duluth City Councilor Jeff Anderson is also running.
Former Rep. Rick Nolan’s cash-strapped campaign received a boost this week from the state party.
The state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party bought $120,000 in airtime to help Nolan in the Aug. 14 competitive primary to decide who will challenge vulnerable Rep. Chip Cravaack (R).
Two other Democrats are running in the primary: former state Sen. Tarryl Clark and Duluth City Councilmember Jeff Anderson. The state DFL endorsed Nolan during its convention in May. Full story
Gov. Mark Dayton (D) endorsed former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) in his comeback bid in the 8th district.
“I am proud to endorse and I enthusiastically support Rick Nolan for Congress,” Dayton said in a statement. “We need more than a ‘good vote’ in a Congress. We need a proven leader who can get past the partisan gridlock and get things done.”
Nolan is engaged in a spirited primary with former state Sen. Tarryl Clark. The winner will face Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) in the fall. Clark picked up an endorsement from President Bill Clinton last week.
President Bill Clinton has weighed in on yet another Democratic House primary, this time backing Tarryl Clark in Minnesota’s 8th district.
Clark, who lost to Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in 2010, moved to Duluth last year to challenge freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R). She faces a competitive Aug. 14 primary against former Rep. Rick Nolan and Duluth City Councilor Jeff Anderson. Full story
Former Rep. James Oberstar endorsed former Rep. Rick Nolan for Oberstar's old House seat. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Former Rep. James Oberstar (D) has endorsed an old friend to take back his seat in Congress.
Today, he announced his official endorsement of former Rep. Rick Nolan in the Democratic primary for the chance to challenge Rep. Chip Cravaack in the general election.
Oberstar’s statement was a veiled message to Democrats to coalesce around Nolan over his primary opponent, former state Sen. Tarryl Clark. Full story
