Race Rating Changes: The Final Push

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listen Sunday during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. With two days before Election Day, Romney is campaigning in swing states across the country. (Emmanuel Dunando/AFP/Getty Images)

Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.

First, the Senate math:

Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.

Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story

New Jersey: Shelley Adler Compares Jon Runyan to Deadly Hurricane in Ad

Rep. Jon Runyan (above) was compared to Hurricane Sandy in a recent campaign ad run by his opponent. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democrat Shelley Adler has pulled a radio spot that compared Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) to deadly Hurricane Sandy.

Adler campaign spokesman Michael Muller told Roll Call that the ad was no longer airing. “We reached out to our buyer on Tuesday and we got confirmation it was off the air on Wednesday,” he said.

Adler, trailing Runyan in New Jersey’s 3rd district, left no doubt in the since-canceled radio spot that she was comparing the Congressman to the storm that hit the Garden State on Monday. The storm, dubbed “Sandy,” destroyed beaches and homes. It is being blamed for more than 70 deaths and has left millions on the Eastern Seaboard without electricity.

“They’re calling it ‘frankenstorm’ — a nor’easter inside of a hurricane,” a male narrator says in the spot. “In New Jersey, we’ve seen acts of nature do real damage. We’re also seeing our own Member of Congress do lasting damage in Washington. Jon Runyan has been in Congress only two short years and already he’s voted over and over again against New Jersey’s workers and families.”

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Daily Ad Track

Here’s what cut through the clutter today.

Wisconsin Senate 

It took Rep. Tammy Baldwin (R) less than 24 hours to fire back against an ad from former Gov. Tommy Thompson’s (R) campaign accusations that she has not honored 9/11 victims.

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NRCC Pulls Final Reservations Out of Philadelphia TV Market

The National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled its remaining reservations out of the Philadelphia television market, according to a Republican source who tracks media buys.

The news is of no dramatic consequence to the House race chess game. Rather, it is a sign of Republican confidence in response to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s decision to cancel reservations in the same market last week.

The DCCC move effectively pulled the plug on its efforts to unseat Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jon Runyan (N.J.).

Shira Toeplitz contributed to this report. 

NRCC Cuts $780,000 in Philadelphia Buys Aimed for Jon Runyan

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans cut $780,000 of ad reservations in the Philadelphia broadcast market today intended for Rep. Jon Runyan’s (R-N.J.) re-election, according to a Republican source familiar with the move.

The cancellation for Oct. 5-18 signals the National Republican Congressional Committee is confident Runyan will defeat attorney Shelley Adler (D) and believes that chunk of money is better spent in other races.

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New Jersey: Shelley Adler Pokes Fun at Jon Runyan

Attorney Shelley Adler (D) has put up an off-beat television ad poking fun at Rep. Jon Runyan’s (R) past as a professional football player. Adler is looking to unseat Runyan in New Jersey’s 3rd district.

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EMILY’s List Doles Out Five New Endorsements

EMILY's List will endorse ex-state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and four other women in their races for Congress. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

EMILY’s List will announce today that it is endorsing five House candidates as part of the Democratic effort to regain control of the chamber this fall. The women are running in districts where the races are tossups or slightly favor Republicans.

The Democratic candidates getting the pro-abortion rights group’s stamp of approval today are:

• Attorney Shelley Adler, running in New Jersey’s 3rd district against Rep. Jon Runyan
• Attorney Kathy Boockvar, running in Pennsylvania’s 8th district against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick
• State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, running in California’s open 26th district
• Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, running in New Hampshire’s 1st district for the nomination to challenge Rep. Frank Guinta
• Former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, running in Arizona’s new 9th district

Friday Fundraising Roundup

Campaigns have until Sunday to file Federal Election Commission reports, but a few campaigns made their numbers public today.

Senate: 

• Hawaii: Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) raised more than $1 million from 7,161 individual donors in the first quarter. Former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) raised close to $1.4 million. Neither released cash-on-hand totals, and former Rep. Ed Case (D) has not yet released any of his numbers.
• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) continues to prove herself as a fundraising powerhouse. She raised $1 million in the first quarter and has $5.2 million in her war chest. Full story

Today’s First-Quarter Fundraising Roundup

First-quarter fundraising numbers continued to trickle out today, as campaigns inch toward Sunday’s filing deadline. These are the first money figures in an election year, and therefore they provide a window into the state of many races as campaigns become more organized.

Tuesday and Wednesday were fairly heavy with Democratic reports, but more Republicans began to show their cards today.

Senate:

• Arizona: Rep. Jeff Flake raised $935,000 for his Senate bid in the first quarter of the year and ended March with about $3 million in cash on hand.
• Montana: We do not have exact figures, but it’s about a tie. Both campaigns are saying they raised about $1.2 million in the first quarter. However, Sen. Jon Tester (D) has the upper hand in cash on hand. He had $4.3 million at the end of last month compared with Rep. Denny Rehberg‘s (R) $2.7 million. The two are facing off in a race that Roll Call rates as a Tossup. Full story

EMILY’s List Backs Four More House Candidates

EMILY’s List released the names of four House candidates who have received its “On the List” designation for the 2012 cycle.

The group, which supports Democratic pro-abortion-rights female candidates, announced today that it is backing Jessica Ehrlich, who running in the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.); Joyce Healy-Abrams, who is challenging Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio); attorney Shelley Adler, who is hoping to reclaim her late husband’s seat from Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) and Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, who is one of several Democrats running in the California’s 26th district open-seat race.

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New Jersey: John Adler’s Widow Seeks to Challenge Jon Runyan

Attorney Shelley Adler, the widow of former Rep. John Adler (D-N.J.), announced today that she plans to run for the 3rd district seat once held by her husband.

“For several months, I weighed running for the seat formerly held by my late husband to continue his legacy of public service,” Adler said in a statement. “This will be an issue-based campaign that will create a real discussion of the challenges facing our country.”
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