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Posts in "R.I.-1"
November 6, 2012
Rep. David Cicilline (D) hung on to win a second House term, according to the Associated Press.
Cicilline was in electoral trouble from the early days of his tenure in 2011. Rhode Islanders were furious with him when it was revealed he left the city of Providence in dire financial straits as mayor.
Republicans were bullish on their recruit, former State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty. The National Republican Congressional Committee dedicated a great deal of money and attention to the race.
But the heavily Democratic nature of the district was enough to carry Cicilline over the finish line. At the time the Associated Press called the race, Cicilline was up by 9 points. He is on track to improve on his 6-point margin of victory in 2010.
November 4, 2012
Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.
First, the Senate math:
Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.
Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story
November 1, 2012
October 27, 2012
A new GOP poll found Republican Brendan Doherty leading Rep. David Cicilline (D) by 6 points in the hard fought and bitterly nasty race for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional district.
The respected Republican firm OnMessage conducted a survey of likely voters for Doherty, which found him leading Cicilline 45 percent to 39 percent in a horse race matchup. Six percent of those polled said they would vote for independent candidate David Vogel, while 11 percent remained undecided.
Forty-two percent had a favorable view of Doherty, a retired state police officer, while 33 percent had an unfavorable view. Thirty-nine percent had a favorable view of Cicilline, while 46 percent had an unfavorable view of him.
President Barack Obama received 55 percent to Mitt Romney’s 34 percent in a ballot test in the poll, underscoring the district’s Democratic leanings.
The race appears to have turned significantly more competitive in recent days. The independent expenditure arms of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have both bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of ad time covering the final days of the campaign.
Cicilline campaign manager Eric Hyers said the poll was a distraction.
“Brendan Doherty has run one of nastiest and negative races in recent memory,” he wrote in an email. “He is trying to distract from the fact he is a Romney Republican who has the backing of national Republicans, and will, as President Bill Clinton said today in a robo-call, ‘be just another vote for those Republicans.’ That poll resembles nothing we have seen, and actually every public poll done so far has shown David ahead.”
Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.
The GOP poll, conducted by live telephone interview on Oct. 24 and 25, surveyed 400 likely voters in the district. It had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
Here is the full GOP polling memo:
October 23, 2012
It’s late October, and political ads today are scarier than Ethan Hawke’s new horror movie.
If political advertising is your source of information, the world is full of deadbeat dads, people who don’t care about 9/11 victims and folks who don’t protect children.
Here’s what cut through the clutter:
Former Gov. Tommy Thompson’s (R) campaign has accused Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) of not honoring 9/11 victims in a new statewide ad. The Baldwin campaign did not waste any time issuing a news release and pushing back on the matter.
“The fact that Tommy Thompson would question Tammy Baldwin’s patriotism and love of America is offensive and disgusting,” Baldwin spokesman John Kraus said. “Thompson’s fear mongering and scare tactics will be rejected by the people of Wisconsin.”
Everyone pretty much expected this ad to be in the can, but what makes it a bit surprising is that it actually hit the air. It is well-known that Rep. Joe Walsh (R) has had to deal with bad press because of allegations of not paying child support. His Democratic rival, veteran Tammy Duckworth, seemed to have put some serious distance between herself and Walsh, but the fact that she is going so negative is sure to raise some eyebrows.
Rhode Island 1
And on Monday, Rep. David Cicilline (D) was on the receiving end of one heck of a nasty ad from his challenger, Republican Brendan Doherty. Within 24 hours, his team turned around a response ad. Ad spending has been extremely heavy in this Providence-area district.
Meredith Shiner contributed to this report.
October 22, 2012
What a difference a debate can make.
About a month ago, the biggest trend among Democrats was to tie Republicans to presidential nominee Mitt Romney in an effort to sink GOP Congressional candidates. Two weeks out from Election Day — guess what? Republican are employing that strategy in reverse as they seek to ride Romney’s coattails in certain states and House districts.
Here’s what cut through the ad clutter today:
State Treasurer Richard Mourdock earned a lot of attention this morning when he released an ad with Romney making a personal appeal on camera for Mourdock’s election to the Senate. The Mourdock campaign was not able to immediately return a request for buy information on the ad.
October 18, 2012
Updated 2:45 p.m. | Republican Brendan Doherty has reduced his television advertising reservations for the last weeks of his bid to oust Rep. David Cicilline (D) in Rhode Island’s 1st district.
Providence CBS affiliate WPRI first reported the news of the reservation reduction. The Doherty camp thinned its final two-week buy from $326,000 to $202,000, according to a GOP source. A Democratic source confirmed the cutback to Roll Call. This is not the same sort of ad movement as a committee pulling out of a race, but it does display a change in calculation on the part of the Doherty campaign.
The Doherty campaign could not immediately be reached for comment. Full story
October 11, 2012
Bolt down that kitchen sink.
This week marks the point where campaigns begin to unleash their devastating ads — the ones they have planned to use all along if necessary but have held back for timing. On Tuesday, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and others went there with a series of ads featuring survivors of sexual assault criticizing Rep. Todd Akin (R). It turns out, it was only the beginning.
Here are the newest ads in this vein to cut through the clutter.
There is no doubt momentum has been with former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) in his Senate bid against Rep. Jeff Flake (R). But all along, Arizona Republicans insisted that a negative barrage was coming Carmona’s way and that there was plenty in his record that could come into play. The negative ads against Carmona began a few weeks ago, but this new one from the Flake campaign is simple and brutal. This is part of a major statewide broadcast, cable and radio buy.
September 25, 2012
The rate of new political television advertisements has accelerated. And, more and more, campaigns are trading accusations about the accuracy (or lack thereof) of the ads.
Some of what was unveiled today:
On Monday afternoon, Democratic nominee Rep. Christopher Murphy’s campaign went up with an ad that hammered GOP nominee and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon on women’s issues.
The ad shows a stream of women giving testimonials about how McMahon has demeaned women during her tenure at the professional wrestling company. The clips go on to explain how McMahon will side with “extreme” Republicans on medical coverage of mammograms and contraception.
Less than 22 hours later, McMahon was up with a strikingly direct response ad. What it lacks in gimmicks, graphics and humor, it delivers with simplicity. Buy information was not immediately obtainable, but sources say the Murphy and McMahon buys are serious.
“Murphy calls me anti-woman,” McMahon says. “But Chris, take a look, I am a woman. A pro-choice woman. My company offered excellent benefits that included mammograms and access to birth control.”
September 11, 2012
Rep. David Cicilline won the Democratic primary tonight in his bid for re-election in Rhode Island’s 1st district.
Businessman Anthony Gemma challenged him for the party nomination. At the time the Associated Press called the race, Cicilline was beating Gemma by a 2-1 margin, 62 percent to 31 percent. Full story
August 1, 2012
Rep. David Cicilline (D) went on the air with a positive TV ad that stresses his office’s work in constituent services.
The buy is at least five figures and will be on broadcast television during the Olympics.
July 14, 2012
Updated 4:16 p.m. | Businessman and Congressional Democratic candidate Anthony Gemma has asserted that he will support fellow Democrats Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Rep. James Langevin, according to The Providence Journal.
“‘He is planning to vote for Senator Whitehouse’ and will back Langevin, too, said Gemma spokesman Alex Morash,” writes The Journal.
Gemma, appeared on The Buddy Cianci radio show and lashed out at those in the Rhode Island Democratic establishment who have chosen to support Cicilline over him. The exchange begins around 5:45 here.
“I’m going to be honest with you … I’m frustrated with Sen. [Sheldon] Whitehouse, that he has not stepped up and done what’s right for me, and his constituents are telling him in droves that I am the right candidate and know it for a fact,” he said.
July 9, 2012
House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) toured Rhode Island’s 1st district with Rep. David Cicilline (D) on Friday.
The pair visited “a local manufacturing facility” and participated in a “roundtable discussion” in Pawtucket, according to an email Cicilline campaign manager Eric Hyers wrote to supporters.
Hoyer’s visit appeared to be a sign that establishment Democrats are firmly behind Cicilline, who has a tough re-election campaign ahead of him and faces a primary challenge. Full story
June 8, 2012
The National Republican Congressional Committee today announced its second round of Young Guns — GOP candidates who have been placed in the top tier of the committee’s recruitment and candidate support program.
“These candidates have met a series of rigorous goals that will put them in position to win on Election Day,” NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) said. “The momentum behind these campaigns is proof-positive that Americans are fed up with President Obama’s policies …” Full story
May 17, 2012
Rep. David Cicilline, one of the most endangered House Democrats this cycle, might not even make it out of the September primary, according to a poll conducted for Rhode Island television affiliate WPRI.
The Congressman got 40 percent versus 36 percent for his primary challenger, businessman Anthony Gemma. Twenty percent of those surveyed were undecided.