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October 24, 2014

Posts in "Va.-10"

October 20, 2014

For House GOP, a Wave … Or a Trickle?

For House GOP, a Wave ... Or a Trickle?

Kirkpatrick is one of the most endangered Democrats this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.

Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.

“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.

Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front drag down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.

But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.

Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:

Full story

October 10, 2014

Confident With House Race, NRCC Cuts TV Time in Northern Virginia

Confident With House Race, NRCC Cuts TV Time in Northern Virginia

Comstock in the GOP nominee in Virginia's 10th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled its broadcast television for the final two weeks of the campaign in northern Virginia’s 10th District race — a sign the GOP is confident they will keep this highly competitive seat.

In the race to replace retiring Rep. Frank R. Wolf, R-Va., the NRCC cut $1 million in the pricey Washington, D.C. market, according to a Republican tracking media buys, who confirmed the move is a reaction to Democrats moving money out of the race earlier this week.

The shifts signals the Republican nominee, Barbara Comstock, is in a strong position to defeat the Democratic nominee, John Foust.

“Barbara Comstock is a terrific candidate who has worked very hard and put together a fantastic campaign and is in a great position to win on Nov. 4th,” said NRCC Communications Director Andrea Bozek when reached for comment.

Full story

October 9, 2014

Democrats Cut Bait in Virginia to Save California House Seat

Democrats Cut Bait in Virginia to Save California House Seat

Bera is getting some on-air backup. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has canceled its television advertising in a competitive northern Virginia House district and will shift most of that money to help an incumbent in northern California, according to a Democrat who monitors media buys.

The sum of the DCCC’s cancellation in Virginia’s 10th District was $2.8 million, according to the source. Democrats were on the offensive in the open-seat race to replace retiring Rep. Frank R. Wolf, R-Va. Full story

September 30, 2014

Republican Cavalry Starts Spending on House Races (Finally)

Republican Cavalry Starts Spending on House Races (Finally)

Walden is the chairman of the NRCC. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

For months, Republicans feared outside groups would skip over House races this cycle, saving their cash for the battle over Senate control.

But the conservative cavalry has finally arrived.

Republican groups — which have mostly sat on the sidelines in House contests this cycle until recently — have reserved nearly $12 million on the television airwaves in competitive races through Election Day, according to two sources tracking ad buys in House contests across the country. The reservations, placed over the last two weeks, are a mix of GOP pickup opportunities and defensive ground.

The reservations include:

Full story

July 1, 2014

Republicans Circulate List of Top Female House Candidates

Republicans Circulate List of Top Female House Candidates

Wagner is a Missouri Republican. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The end of primary season is nigh, and Republicans are now optimistic their slate of House candidates will yield a net gain of female members in the conference after November. 

Republicans are now focusing their efforts on a specific slate of top female candidates with a strong chance of coming to Congress. 

On Tuesday morning, a top aide to Rep. Ann Wagner, a Missouri Republican and leading voice in the conference for women, emailed Capitol Hill colleagues and K Street allies to highlight these female candidates, according to an email obtained by CQ Roll Call.

“As many of you know, my boss, Ann Wagner (MO-2), and Congresswoman Diane Black (TN-6) have worked over the last year to recruit, support and promote Republican women candidates for Congress across the country,” wrote Christian Morgan, Wagner’s chief of staff. ”As we are winding down Primary season, I wanted to send you a list of our top candidates.”

Morgan named the following candidates: Full story

June 17, 2014

NRCC Reserves $30 Million for TV Ads in 2014

NRCC Reserves $30 Million for TV Ads in 2014

The NRCC Chairman is Rep. Greg Walden of Oregon. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved $30 million in television airtime this fall, signaling it is preparing to go on offense in 17 districts and defend nine more.

The NRCC has put its marker down in many of the same House districts as its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. It’s a good indicator of which races both parties think will be most competitive in November.

But there are a few competitive districts not included in the NRCC’s initial reservations, such as Iowa’s 3rd District — an open seat currently held by a Republican that is one of this cycle’s few Tossup races.

Also, the NRCC’s television reservations total $13.5 million less than what the DCCC has already reserved for this fall. The committees will likely shift and add more airtime as individual races develop during the rest of the cycle.  

But the DCCC has raised more money than the NRCC this cycle. As of the end of April, the DCCC had $43.3 million in the bank, while the NRCC had $32.3 million.

Here are the districts where the NRCC has already reserved airtime for this fall:

Full story

June 9, 2014

Tuesday Primaries: Eric Cantor, Lindsey Graham Face Tepid Opposition

Tuesday Primaries: Eric Cantor, Lindsey Graham Face Tepid Opposition

Cantor, the House Majority Leader, is on the primary ballot Tuesday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Sen. Lindsey Graham — two of  the most recognizable names in Congress — face primary challenges Tuesday from their right flank.

“I feel good,” Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said in a brief interview Thursday at the Capitol. “[We're] running like we’re behind and got a lot of energy. Just got to run through the tape.”

Both Cantor and Graham are poised to defeat their party foes, but their margins will reveal insight into their political positions in their respective states.

Full story

May 29, 2014

DCCC Reserves $43.5 Million in TV Airtime for Midterms

DCCC Reserves $43.5 Million in TV Airtime for Midterms

Israel is the current chairman of the DCCC. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $43.5 million in television airtime in dozens of targeted House districts this fall — a signal the party is attempting to play defense and offense in a challenging midterm cycle.

The money is split across 36 districts, including 17 pickup opportunities, according to a DCCC aide. More districts and more money could be added to the reservations as the cycle progresses, the aide said.

The DCCC had $43.3 million in the bank at the end of April and has raised more than its Republican counterpart by large margins this cycle. The committee ended April with an $11 million cash-on-hand advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.

These ad reservations give insight into which members Democrats see as vulnerable, and which seats the DCCC sees as the best possibility to take in November. They also signal to outside groups where the the party might need help on the airwaves this fall.

However, parties can cancel or change these reservations until shortly before the advertisements air in most cases.

Here are the districts where the DCCC has reserved airtime:

Full story

May 12, 2014

Meet the NRCC’s New Young Guns

Meet the NRCCs New Young Guns

Dold, seen at the Capitol in 2012, was selected to be of the NRCC's Young Guns this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden on Monday unveiled the first round of House GOP candidates elevated to “Young Gun” status.

The NRCC’s Young Guns program is the highest designation for recruits in either open-seat races or in districts where the GOP is on offense. The program allows the party to communicate to donors and the political world who are the most organized recruits of the cycle.

Candidates earn this status by demonstrating “their ability to build a formidable campaign structure and achieve important goals and benchmarks,” according to a news release.

“Candidates that reach ‘Young Gun’ status have met a series of rigorous goals that will put them in a position to win on Election Day,” Walden said in a statement. “Our job as a committee is to help elect Republicans to office that will serve as a check and balance on the Obama Administration.”

The new Young Guns are:

Full story

April 26, 2014

GOP Picks Nominee for Competitive Virginia House Race

GOP Picks Nominee for Competitive Virginia House Race

Comstock won the GOP nod to try to succeed Wolf, above, in Congress. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 6:50 PM | State Del. Barbara Comstock defeated five other candidates Saturday to win the GOP nomination for a competitive House race in northern Virginia, according to multiple sources.

The GOP chairman of Virgina’s 10th District, which ran the “firehouse primary,” confirmed the results.

Comstock will face Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, a Democrat, in November to succeed retiring Rep. Frank R. Wolf, R-Va.. The seat is a top target for national Democrats. Mitt Romney carried the district by a 1-point margin in 2012.

Full story

April 24, 2014

The House GOP’s Next All-Star Female Contender?

The House GOPs Next All Star Female Contender?

Wolf is retiring. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

While some House GOP efforts to nominate top-notch female candidates have faltered this cycle, Republicans are poised to gain at least one all-star woman contender after a Saturday primary in Virginia.

Republicans expect state Del. Barbara Comstock to cruise to the nomination in this competitive district, located in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. A seasoned political operative, Comstock is one of a half dozen Republicans seeking to succeed retiring Rep. Frank R. Wolf, R-Va., in the 10th District.

Her nomination would boost Republicans, who recently watched two female candidates lose primaries in special elections in Florida. House Republicans have declared they want to increase the number of women in their caucus from the current level of 19.

If she gets through the primary on Saturday, Comstock is also the slight favorite in the general election in November. Republicans — and even some Democrats privately — say the political climate favoring the GOP in this district, which has a modest Republican lean, would give her an advantage this cycle.

Full story

March 17, 2014

Northern Virginia Democrats Cancel 10th District Convention

After clearing the field for the party’s preferred candidate, Northern Virginia Democrats have canceled their 10th District nominating convention.

Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust will face the eventual GOP nominee in November in the race to replace retiring Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va. — a top pickup opportunity for the party. Foust was set to face attorney Richard Bolger in an April 26 convention, but Bolger dropped out of the race Friday, allowing Foust to begin preparing for the general immediately.

State Del. Barbara Comstock is the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but she faces primary opposition from a handful of Republicans, including conservative state Del. Bob Marshall and retired Naval Officer Howard Lind. Republicans will select their nominee in an April 26 firehouse primary, a state party-run election with less than a dozen polling locations.

Virginia’s 10th District is rated Leans Republican by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

March 14, 2014

Democrats Clear Primary Field in Competitive Virginia House Race

Democrats have cleared the primary field in Virginia’s 10th District, one of the party’s top open-seat targets this cycle.

Attorney Richard Bolger announced Friday he is suspending his campaign, paving the way for Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust — who was already the favorite — to earn the Democratic nomination for this Northern Virginia-based seat.

Bolger launched his bid in September, before longtime Republican Rep. Frank R. Wolf announced his retirement and the seat moved toward the top of national Democrats’ wish list.

“When Congressman Wolf retired, the seat became one of the top pick-up opportunities for Democrats in the nation,” Bolger said in a statement. “At this point, it has become clear to me that John Foust is our strongest choice with the best chance of helping our party win this seat and change the direction of Congress.”

Full story

March 6, 2014

Virginia Republican Launches TV Ad in Race to Replace Frank Wolf

Retired Naval officer Howie Lind will hit the airwaves Thursday with his first TV ad of the GOP primary in Virginia’s 10th District.

Lind is one of a half-dozen Republicans vying for the Northern Virginia seat vacated by the retirement of Rep. Frank R. Wolf. His first ad appears to be aimed at the front-runner, state Del. Barbara Comstock, a former Wolf aide who has long been expected to run for the seat.

“Howie Lind for Congress,” the announcer says. “Because it’s not about whose turn it is, but who’s going to stand up for us.”

The ad, shared first with CQ Roll Call, comes with less than two months to go in the fight for the GOP nomination. It’s set to air on cable and satellite TV throughout the district, according to a campaign source who declined to provide the exact buy size.

Full story

March 3, 2014

Democrats Announce House Targets for 2014

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee rolled out the first 35 districts of its “Red to Blue” program Monday, highlighting the GOP-held seats the party believes it can flip and open seats it hopes to keep in the Democratic column in the 2014 midterms.

Needing to net 17 seats to win back the House majority, the announcement makes clear where the party believes its most important fights will take place.

“This is our initial roll out,” DCCC Chairman Steve Israel said Monday morning on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown.” “There will be more, and we will have a very competitive battlefield as we go deeper into the cycle.” Full story

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