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July 8, 2015

Posts in "Polling"

June 4, 2015

Pew Poll: Immigration Pessimism on the Rise

Support for a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants remains strong, but the number of Americans who believe immigrants are a drain on the country is on the rise, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

The center reports 72 percent of Americans said in a poll conducted in May that undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. should be allowed to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. That result has fluctuated only slightly in recent years, according to Pew.

Full story

By David Eldridge Posted at 10 a.m.
Polling

April 29, 2015

Good News for Democrats Courting Millennial Voters

A majority of millennials want Democrats to hold the White House in 2016, and Clinton leads the field. (File Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

A majority of millennials want Democrats to hold the White House in 2016, and Clinton leads the field. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

If Democrats can turn out millennial voters for the presidential race in 2016, their downballot candidates may just get the boost they’re looking for from the 18- to 29-year-old crowd.

A Harvard Institute of Politics poll released Wednesday found a significant majority of millennial voters most likely to vote — 55 percent — wanted Democrats to hold onto the White House in 2016. Forty percent would prefer a Republican commander in chief. The poll, which was conducted online from March 18 to April 1, surveyed more than 3,000 adults nationwide ages 18 to 29.

Full story

March 31, 2015

GOP Pollster: ‘Transformational’ Nominee Helps Blue State Senators

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Ayres speaks to Reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. (Courtesy Michael Bonfigli/The Christian Science Monitor)

A prominent Republican pollster sounded warning bells about the shifting demographics of the American electorate at a breakfast with reporters Tuesday morning, saying his party must be more inclusive of minority voters if it wants to win the White House in 2016.

Whit Ayres, founder of the Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research, said the GOP must win more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, as well as appeal to younger voters, in order to be successful at the presidential level in 2016. To do that, he said the party needs to change its messaging and tone on issues such as immigration and same-sex marriage.

Full story

November 12, 2014

How David Perdue Knew He Would Win

The morning after he won Georgia’s open Senate seat, Republican David Perdue was asked on “Fox & Friends” how he avoided a runoff when every available poll had shown a tight race.

It was the question of the day in the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity — where millions of dollars poured in from both sides during the final month of the contest, yet the Republican emerged with an unexpectedly large 8-point victory.

His answer indicated the Perdue campaign may have been the only ones not in the dark.

“Our pollster, Chris Perkins, had it pegged all along,” the former corporate CEO and first-time candidate responded. Full story

October 29, 2014

Democrats Losing Youth Vote: Millennials Turning to the GOP

Democrats have lost ground with millennials compared to past election cycles — a development that suggests the country’s youngest voters are open to both parties, according to a new Harvard Institute of Politics poll.

The nationwide poll of more than 2,000 adults ages 18 to 29, conducted Sept. 26 to Oct. 9, found significant political divisions across racial lines, no significant gender gap in the age group, and a slight Republican advantage among definite voters going into the 2014 midterm election.

“A lesson here, for us, is that young people, millennials, are no longer the political outliers that they once were,” said John Della Volpe, the Harvard Institute of Politics polling director, on a conference call with reporters. “In contrast to where we were four years ago, the youth vote is very much up for grabs politically.” Full story

By Clark Mindock Posted at 2:18 p.m.
Polling

October 28, 2014

New Poll Shows Lee Terry Still Trailing

lee terry

Terry is a Nebraska Republican. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Less than two weeks to go before Election Day, a new poll shows Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., trails his Democratic opponent by a 5-point margin.

In the survey conducted by a Democratic firm for the United Transportation Union, Terry trailed Democratic state Sen. Brad Ashford, 46 percent to 41 percent. A libertarian candidate, Steven Laird, drew 6 percent, while 7 percent remained undecided.

Even worse for Terry? The poll found the eight-term Republican is less popular than President Barack Obama in the Omaha-based 2nd District. According to the poll, 39 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Obama, while 34 percent had a favorable view of Terry. Full story

October 24, 2014

DCCC Polls Hawaii House Race

Djou served in Congress for several months in 2010. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Democratic poll shows the party’s nominee in an open House contest in Hawaii with a 7-point lead over the Republican.

State Rep. Mark Takai, a Democrat, led former Republican Rep. Charles Djou, 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the survey, which was conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and obtained by CQ Roll Call.

Public polling has shown a closer race, either a dead heat or with Djou slightly leading Takai. Both are seeking to succeed Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, a Democrat who lost the primary for Senate earlier this year.

This week, American Action Network, a GOP group, went up with $300,000 on Honolulu broadcast attacking Takai’s past comments on taxes. They hope Djou will upset the Aloha State’s 1st District, which voted for President Barack Obama by a 41-percent margin in 2012.

On Friday, the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call to moved the race rating to Leans Democratic.

Full story

October 22, 2014

Internal Poll Shows Kansas Republican With 12-Point Lead

lynn jenkins

Jenkins is a Kansas Republican. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from Rep. Lynn Jenkins’ campaign shows the Republican with a 12-point lead over her Democratic opponent.

The poll, provided first to CQ Roll Call, showed Jenkins ahead, 49 percent to 37 percent, over Democrat Margie Wakefield. Another 6 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Libertarian candidate, and 8 percent said they were undecided in the survey.

Jenkins’ re-election is playing out on the backdrop of a tumultuous political environment in Kansas, where Democrats are mounting a strong effort to oust GOP Gov. Sam Brownback, and an independent candidate is challenging Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan. Two weeks ago, internal polls reportedly showed Jenkins in a single digit race. Full story

October 15, 2014

Democratic Poll: Jeanne Shaheen Leads Scott Brown

scott brown

A Democratic poll has Shaheen leading her re-election race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen maintained a significant, single-digit lead in a new Democratic tracking poll.

The survey, obtained by CQ Roll Call, found the Democrat ahead 50 percent to 44 percent against former Sen. Scott P. Brown, R-Mass.

Kiley & Company conducted the poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. According to a polling memo, it found Shaheen with a 7-point net favorable rating, while Brown’s was 7 points underwater. The senator led by 15 points among women and by 7 points among independents, while Brown led by 4 points among men. The incumbent also led by 33 points on the question of which candidate “is committed to New Hampshire.” Full story

October 10, 2014

Gallup: Georgia Runoff ‘Likely’

georgia senate race

Nunn (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Gallup said Friday runoffs are “likely” in Georgia’s Senate and gubernatorial races, citing the high rate of independents in that state.

A Senate runoff in Georgia would be held Jan. 6 — potentially leaving control of the Senate in limbo into the next session of Congress.

Gallup didn’t post direct poll results in the hotly contested race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue, but the polling showed Georgia has trended slightly less conservative in recent years. Full story

October 9, 2014

Poll: Democrat Opens Lead in Top Iowa House Race

house race polls 2014

Young hopes to keep Iowa's 3rd District in the Republican column. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Former state Sen. Staci Appel has opened up a significant single-digit lead over her Republican opponent in a competitive open-seat race in Iowa, according to a tracking poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and obtained by CQ Roll Call.

Appel led former Capitol Hill aide David Young, 49 percent to 42 percent, according to the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll showed Appel increasing her lead from the DCCC’s last poll on Sept. 15, when Appel led Young 47 percent to 44 percent. 

Full story

Al Franken Up 7 Points in Republican Poll

al franken

Franken is running for a second term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Minnesota Sen. Al Franken led by 7 points in an internal poll conducted on behalf of the state Republican Party.

The Democrat, who is favored to be re-elected to a second term, led Republican finance executive Mike McFadden 46 percent to 39 percent.

It was a more favorable result for McFadden than the state party’s previous internal poll in August, which showed Franken up 49 percent to 38 percent.

“Bottom line — the race is still advantage Franken, but the Senator’s margin has closed over the past few weeks,” Public Opinion Strategies pollster Robert Blizzard wrote in a memo obtained by CQ Roll Call. Full story

October 8, 2014

Democratic Poll Finds Mark Pryor With Small Lead

mark pryor

Pryor is facing a competitive re-election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll conducted for the Arkansas Democratic Party found Sen. Mark Pryor and his Republican challenger still locked in a tight race.

In the survey, obtained by CQ Roll Call, Pryor led Rep. Tom Cotton, 45 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian and Green Party candidates taking a combined 5 percent and 9 percent undecided.

Democratic polls have consistently shown Pryor with small leads in recent months, which is counter to most public and GOP polling that has come out. But a USA Today/Suffolk poll taken in mid-September found Pryor up 2 points. Full story

October 7, 2014

Poll Shows McAllister Race Is Wide Open

McAllister faces five other candidates in the race for his seat. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

A poll released Monday showed no clear front-runner in the race for embattled Rep. Vance McAllister’s seat in Louisiana.

The Republican was among the top three candidates in the automated poll, conducted by a GOP firm, which surveyed 504 likely voters in the 5th District.

Earlier this year, McAllister was caught on camera kissing a married staffer — several months after he won a special election for the seat. But given the crowded field, it is very unlikely any of the six candidates will garner 50 percent of the vote on Election Day, which means the race will continue to a runoff between the top two vote-recipients in December.  Full story

October 6, 2014

Democratic Pollster Sees the Light in Senate Battleground States

Democratic Poll

Hagan and Udall face close re-election races this fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll suggests Democrats in 12 Senate battleground states have made significant gains with their messaging to key demographics, putting the races at a “tipping point” where the opinion of women — specifically unmarried women — may provide the path for Democrats to maintain their hold on the Senate this November.

“Every single metric that I look at has moved or edged towards Democrats,” Stan Greenberg, the co-founder of Democracy Corps and a Democratic pollster, said. “I cannot find anything that has moved in the other direction.” Full story

By Clark Mindock Posted at 6:59 p.m.
Polling

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