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April 19, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

April 3, 2014

Internal Poll: Tierney Holds Wide Lead in Democratic Primary

Internal Poll: Tierney Holds Wide Lead in Democratic Primary

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

National Democrats say Massachusetts Rep. John F. Tierney is not facing a Democratic primary challenge nearly as competitive as some in the party had feared.

In an automated poll released Thursday by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Tierney led veteran Seth Moulton 64 percent to 17 percent, with 20 percent undecided. The wide lead is largely a testament to Tierney’s familiarity with voters in Massachusetts’ 6th District, which he has represented for nine terms, and illustrates that Moulton remains unknown.

“In sum, Tierney’s commanding lead, combined with his strong, positive profile, signify that he is the clear choice among likely primary voters” in the district, Christina Coloroso, the DCCC’s targeting and analytics director, said in a polling memo obtained by CQ Roll Call. Full story

February 26, 2014

Poll: Lindsey Graham Close to Avoiding Runoff

South Carolina Republican primary voters don’t think the country is on the right track, but they’re not yet blaming Sen. Lindsey Graham.

The two-term incumbent, who faces a handful of GOP primary challengers, led a Winthrop University poll released Wednesday with 45 percent of the vote. Graham needs more than 50 percent of the vote in the June 10 primary to escape a runoff, but none of Graham’s challengers made it out of single-digit support, while 35 percent remained undecided.

Graham kicked off his TV advertising campaign two weeks ago, highlighting his efforts to fight the Obama administration on health care and Benghazi.

That plays well in a state where just 3 percent of GOP primary voters said they think the country is on the right track and 90 percent disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Full story

February 20, 2014

New Internal Poll Gives Murphy Wide Lead in Crowded Iowa Race

A new poll from state Rep. Pat Murphy, one of five Democrats running for Iowa’s open 1st District, shows him with a wide lead, according to a memo from his House campaign.

Murphy received 36 percent in the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by Myers Research and paid for by his campaign. Also per the poll, Murphy has a 19-point lead over Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon.

Full story

February 18, 2014

Internal Poll: Wendy Greuel Tops Field for House Race in California

Former Los Angeles Controller Wendy Greuel boasts a lead in the crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Henry A. Waxman, D-Calif., in the 33rd District, according to her own survey provided first to CQ Roll Call.

The poll showed Greuel, one of three Democrats in the contest, with support from 29 percent of likely primary voters in the race. Her survey also showed her top competitor, state Sen. Ted Lieu, with 21 percent of the likely primary vote.

Full story

February 11, 2014

Internal Alexander Memo Reveals Wide GOP Primary Lead

An internal poll conducted for Sen. Lamar Alexander’s campaign shows the Tennessee Republican with a 45-point lead over his highest-tracking primary opponent, according to a memo obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The poll, conducted by North Star Opinion Research, surveyed 600 likely GOP primary voters and found that Alexander enjoys a 67-percent-to-26-percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating.

Meanwhile, tea-party-backed state Rep. Joe Carr is struggling to gain name recognition in the state. Seventy percent of likely Republican voters said they have never heard of Carr, up only 3 points from an August poll. Full story

January 15, 2014

Republicans Sound Alarm for Outside Groups in Florida Special

Fewer than two hours after lobbyist David Jolly won the GOP nomination in Florida’s 13th District, word leaked that his campaign had bought a modest $50,000 in airtime for the special election.

But Jolly’s Democratic rival has already done the same — with an advertisement buy six times larger than his.

The lopsided spending illustrates the trajectory of the special election to replace the late Republican Rep. C.W. Bill Young.

The Democratic nominee, former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, begins the general election with a massive financial advantage, boosted by cash-flush outside groups already behind her bid. Jolly must race to catch up after a competitive primary — and Republicans fear he won’t have much help from national conservative outside groups.

Full story

January 7, 2014

Republicans Form New Polling Firm

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release. Full story

December 18, 2013

Poll: Braley Leads in Iowa Despite Disapproval for Obama

Despite poor approval ratings for the president in Iowa, the Democratic candidate for Senate led all of his potential Republican opponents in a poll released Wednesday.

Quinnipiac University’s latest poll found that Iowa Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley would defeat each of the six Republicans tested for this open-seat race. His closest competitor was former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, whom Braley led 43 percent to 40 percent.

Full story

December 4, 2013

Internal Poll: Former Miss America Trails Freshman Republican in Illinois

Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., holds a large lead over his GOP primary opponent, former Miss America Erika Harold, according to a poll obtained exclusively by CQ Roll Call.

Davis leads Harold by a massive 48 points in the poll of likely GOP primary voters commissioned by his campaign and conducted by the GOP survey firm Public Opinion Strategies. Twenty percent of respondents in the poll said they were undecided.

The survey showed Davis with 63 percent and Harold with 15 percent.

Full story

November 25, 2013

Franken Challenger Says Minnesota GOP ‘Starting to Unify’ (Video)

The candidate: Republican state Sen. Julianne Ortman
The member: First-term Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn.
The state:
Franken won by the smallest margin of any Senate race in 2008. He defeated then-Sen. Norm Coleman, a Republican, following a recount.
The candidate’s team:
Campaign manager Andy Parrish and media consultant Ed Brookover.

Full story

November 15, 2013

GOP Front-Runner Emerges in Targeted Open House Seat in Maine

GOP Front Runner Emerges in Targeted Open House Seat in Maine

Raye is running for Congress in the 2nd District. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former state Senate President Kevin Raye, a Republican, is solidifying his support as the GOP front-runner in Maine’s competitive 2nd District — a strong pick-up opportunity for the GOP in 2014.

An internal poll from Raye’s campaign released last week showed him far ahead of the two other GOP candidates — thanks in large part to his high name recognition in the district. Meanwhile, Maine Office of Policy and Management Director Richard Rosen, a top Republican who had been eyeing a bid, appears poised to stay out of the GOP primary, according to local sources.

“The fact is that Kevin Raye looks like he is the presumptive front-runner of the seat, and that’s a big deal for Republicans up here,” said one Maine GOP operative unaffiliated with any candidates in the race. “It’s been a long time since we’ve held that seat.” Full story

November 12, 2013

New Dem Poll Shows McConnell in Tight Race

New Dem Poll Shows McConnell in Tight Race

McConnell is up for re-election in 2014. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

As a new poll showed a tight race in Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell held a news conference in Louisville to press for the repeal of the health care overhaul and tie his opponent to the Senate Democrats who voted for it.

The poll, conducted by Democratic firm Lake Research Partners for MoveOn.org’s political action arm, found McConnell and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes tied at 37 percent in a potential general-election matchup. It’s the latest evidence that the Bluegrass State will be among the top races of 2014.

Speaking behind a podium at his campaign headquarters, McConnell said Democrats essentially took a “meat ax” to the country’s health care system with the new law and are now panicked over the repercussions. After referring to the health care website’s troubles, he noted that 15 Democrats up for re-election next year met with the president at the White House last week to discuss the law. Full story

October 23, 2013

GOP Poll: Cotton Holds Edge Over Pryor in Arkansas

GOP Poll: Cotton Holds Edge Over Pryor in Arkansas

Pryor faces a tough re-election race in 2014. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted on behalf of Rep. Tom Cotton’s campaign found the Arkansas Republican with a 4-point lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor — within the margin of error for the survey.

In one of the GOP’s top pickup opportunities in 2014, Cotton led 45 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent of those surveyed undecided.

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. on Oct. 15-17. The margin of error was 4 points. Full story

October 15, 2013

Poll: Booker Up 14 Going Into New Jersey Special Election

Newark Mayor Cory Booker continues to lead his Republican opponent by double digits with just one day to go in the New Jersey Senate special election.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday morning found Booker ahead of Republican Steve Lonegan, 54 percent to 40 percent. The margin is nearly identical to a week ago, when Booker led by 12 points. Full story

October 3, 2013

Exclusive: Bill Shuster Stomps Tea Party Challenger in Early GOP Poll

Rep. Bill Shuster, R-Pa., holds a more than 50-point lead over his Republican challengers in the 9th District primary next year, according to a new automated telephone poll from a GOP firm.

In the survey — shared first with CQ Roll Call — nearly two-thirds of likely GOP primary voters, 63 percent, said they would back Shuster in a primary. Ret. Coast Guard Capt. Art Halvorson had the support of 11 percent of respondents, while 5 percent backed veteran Travis Schooley. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they were “not sure” in the poll.

In recent weeks, Pennsylvania GOP operatives have questioned if Shuster is vulnerable to a primary challenge from Halvorson. The House Transportation and Infrastructure chairman has ramped up his fundraising over the past year, and his campaign manager insisted to CQ Roll Call that his team takes every challenge seriously.

Full story

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