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February 8, 2016

Posts in "Polling"

September 18, 2012

Ohio: Charlie Wilson Poll Shows Tied Race With Bill Johnson

The campaign of former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) released a poll Tuesday showing him in a dead heat with freshman Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Wilson tied Johnson at 46 percent, with 8 percent of the electorate still undecided, according to the Democrat’s internal campaign survey.

Wilson, a two-term Democrat, lost re-election in 2010 to Johnson in a marginally Republican district.

But Buckeye State Republicans redrew the district to include more GOP voters when they overhauled the state’s Congressional map last year after reapportionment.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

The Anzalone Liszt Research survey sampled 500 likely 2012 voters Sept. 9-12 and had a 4.4-point margin of error.

September 17, 2012

DSCC, NRSC Fuel Battle for Indiana Senate Seat

The Hoosier State officially became a Senate battleground last week as both parties dropped six-figure ad buys into the race.

During the weekend, the National Republican Senatorial Committee bought $650,000 worth of airtime for a week-long buy to boost its nominee, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, Roll Call confirmed.

Full story

September 12, 2012

North Carolina: GOP Super PAC Boosts Anti-McIntyre Ad Buy

youtube.com/watch?v=IZZF7YbZxdg

The Republican-aligned YG Action Fund, a super PAC formed by former aides to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), boosted its TV advertising against Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) on Tuesday by almost $200,000.

The group now has $734,000 backing its TV spot in the Raleigh-Durham media market from Sept. 7 through Oct. 12.

The current spot — and others could be rotated in — is entitled “Two Mikes.”

Full story

Massachusetts: John Tierney Ahead by 12 Points in Independent Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) led his Republican challenger, former state Sen. Richard Tisei, by 12 points in a new independent poll. But Tierney, who has suffered politically from revelations about his wife’s family’s gambling ring, is burdened with some significant weaknesses, the survey showed.

Tierney got 46 percent compared with Tisei’s 34 percent in the WBUR poll of likely voters that included leaners conducted by the MassINC Polling Group. Eleven percent were undecided, and 7 percent said they would vote for the Libertarian candidate.

When leaners were not included, Tierney’s lead over Tisei was 7 points.

But red flags abounded for the eight-term Congressman in this poll. Only 35 percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of him — a low number for a longtime Member — while 30 percent had an unfavorable view. Twenty-one percent had heard of him but were undecided, and 10 percent had never heard of him. Full story

September 10, 2012

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich Up 7 Points in Senate Poll

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) held a 7-point lead in the state’s open-seat Senate race and Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) led by 12 points in the race to replace Heinrich in the House, according to a new independent poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.

Heinrich led former Rep. Heather Wilson (R), 49 percent to 42 percent, and Lujan Grisham led Janice Arnold-Jones (R) in the Albuquerque-based 1st district, 46 percent to 34 percent.

The polls were conducted Sept. 3-6 by Research & Polling. The Senate poll included a sample of 667 likely voters with a 3.8-point margin of error. The 1st district poll surveyed 409 likely voters with a 4.8-point margin of error.

In the state’s two less competitive Congressional districts, Reps. Steve Pearce (R) and Ben Ray Luján (D) each led by 26 points over their respective challengers.

September 5, 2012

California: Internal Poll Has Alan Lowenthal Up 20

(Douglas Graham CQ/Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for the campaign of California state Sen. Alan Lowenthal found the Democrat ahead of his Republican opponent by 20 points in the race for the newly drawn 47th district. Full story

August 30, 2012

New York: Democratic Poll Has Tim Bishop up by 14 Points

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll released by the campaign of New York Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop found the incumbent leading GOP challenger Randy Altschuler by 14 points among likely voters. In a horserace matchup, Bishop took 53 percent to Altschuler’s 39 percent.

Eight percent of those polled were undecided. Also, 54 percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of Bishop, while 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Forty-two percent had a favorable opinion of Altschuler, while 29 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him

The race in New York’s Long Island-based 1st district is a rematch of 2010, when Altschuler, a businessman, lost by a very narrow margin. While the district was adjusted during the redistricting process, the partisan makeup remained about the same, so the 14 point margin seems somewhat far-fetched.

Full story

California: John Garamendi Leads in 3rd District Democratic Poll

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

California Rep. John Garamendi (D) led his Republican challenger by 15 points in a new poll conducted for a Democratic-aligned super PAC.

Garamendi led Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann 54 percent to 39 percent. The two are running in the redrawn, Sacramento-area 3rd district, which became more competitive after redistricting.

The poll of 400 likely voters in the district was conducted August 26-27 by GBA Strategies on behalf of House Majority PAC. It had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal automated poll last month that showed Garamendi ahead by 15 points.

Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.

August 29, 2012

California: Dan Lungren, Ami Bera Tied In Democratic Poll

A new poll shows Republican Rep. Dan Lungren (above) tied with his Democratic challenged in the race for California's 7th district. (Bill Clark CQ/Roll Call File Photo)

A Democratic poll released this morning found physician Ami Bera (D) and Rep. Dan Lungren (R) dead even in California’s 7th district.

Both got 47 percent, with 6 percent undecided. It’s their second straight matchup in the Sacramento area, but the district was altered in favor of Democrats during redistricting.

The poll also found President Barack Obama ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 52 percent to 44 percent. Full story

August 28, 2012

Connecticut: New Polls Give Parties Mixed Senate, House News

Rep. Christopher Murphy is in a more competitive Senate race than once thought. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Two polls released today offer mixed news for Republicans and Democrats in competitive Connecticut Senate and House races.

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee surveying the 5th district House race showed former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) had a 9-point lead over state Sen. Andrew Roraback (R). Forty-four percent of those polled said they intended to vote for Esty, while 35 percent said they would back Roraback. Full story

August 24, 2012

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich’s Lead Expands in Internal Poll

Rep. Martin Heinrich is running for Senate in New Mexico this fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

New Mexico Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) led by more than 7 points in an internal poll released today by his campaign for the state’s open Senate seat.

In the poll, conducted by GBA Strategies, Heinrich led former Rep. Heather Wilson (R), 51 percent to 44 percent. The poll of 700 likely voters was taken Aug. 14-19. It had a 4-point margin of error. Full story

August 21, 2012

California: Mark Takano Up by 4 in Internal Poll

In a California House race targeted by both parties, Riverside Community College Board Trustee Mark Takano (D) led by 4 points in a poll conducted for his campaign.

According to a polling memo obtained by Roll Call, the poll, conducted by EMC Research of Oakland, Calif., found Takano ahead of Riverside County Supervisor John Tavaglione (R), 42 percent to 38 percent, with 20 percent undecided. Tavaglione enjoys a 15-point name identification advantage, 55 percent to 40 percent. Full story

August 16, 2012

Illinois: New Democratic Poll Shows Robert Dold and Brad Schneider Tied

Democrat Brad Schneider is challenging Republican Rep. Robert Dold in Illinois' 10th district. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 1:30 p.m. | Freshman Rep. Robert Dold (R) and businessman Brad Schneider (D) are in a dead heat in the race for an Illinois House seat, according to a new Democratic poll released today.

Dold and Schneider each received 46 percent in the survey conducted for the Service Employees International Union and House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.

The 10th district presents Democrats with one of their best pick-up opportunities this fall. Currently, Dold represents the most Democratic district held by a GOP House Member. What’s more, Democrats improved the 10th for their party in their redraw of the state’s Congressional map last year. Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.

Democrats argue the poll is further evidence Dold is in trouble going into November.

“Bob Dold is in serious trouble because he is seriously out of step with Illinois,” said Alixandria Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC.

Full story

August 14, 2012

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich Expands Lead in Democratic Poll

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for a coalition of environmental and conservation organizations found that Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) has expanded his lead over former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) in the race for New Mexico’s open Senate seat. Full story

August 9, 2012

Indiana: New Dem Poll Shows Tied Senate Race

Rep. Joe Donnelly (left) is in a dead heat with opponent Richard Mourdock in the latest poll released by his campaign. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) released a new poll today showing he remains in a dead heat with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the Hoosier State’s open Senate race.

Donnelly received 41 percent to Mourdock’s 40 percent in the survey obtained by Roll Call and paid for by the Democrat’s campaign.

The survey shows Democrats believe the race remains competitive several months after Mourdock defeated six-term Sen. Dick Lugar for the Republican nomination in May. Roll Call rates the Indiana Senate race as Leans Republican. Full story

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