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September 22, 2014

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July 10, 2012

Nevada: Ethics Probe Clouds Tossup Senate Race

Rep. Shelley Berkley, the Democratic nominee for the Nevada Senate seat once held by scandal-plagued Republican John Ensign, is now embroiled in an ethics investigation of her own — making a top pick-up opportunity for her party a steeper climb.

Berkley is running to unseat appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) in a presidential battleground state that is crucial to Democrats’ chances at holding both the White House and Senate. Her bid was clouded Monday by the House Ethics Committee announcement — less than four months from Election Day — that it is investigating whether Berkley broke any ethics rules or laws by saving a kidney transplant program at a hospital where her physician husband had a lucrative contract. Full story

Wisconsin: EMILY’s List Takes On Senate Frontrunners

Women Vote!, the independent expenditure arm of EMILY’s List, released its first television ad in Wisconsin this cycle in support of Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) with a $400,000 broadcast television buy.

The ad, which will air in Milwaukee, Green Bay and Wausau, targets GOP Senate candidates businessman Eric Hovde and former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

“D.C. insiders like Tommy Thompson and Eric Hovde are not going to stick up for me,”  the ad’s first subject says.

The ad continues by portraying the GOP candidates as out of touch with Wisconsin before praising Baldwin as someone who “won’t give the state away to special interests.”

The choice to take on both Thompson and Hovde underscores the changing dynamic in the GOP primary. The two candidates are quickly emerging as the race’s frontrunners. Full story

July 9, 2012

Kentucky: Andy Barr Poll Shows Him Behind by 5 Points

Kentucky: Andy Barr Poll Shows Him Behind by 5 Points

Rep. Ben Chandler (right), seen here in 2008 with then-Sen. Barack Obama, will have to run several points ahead of the president in his rural Kentucky district to get re-elected in November. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call)

Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leads Republican Andy Barr by 5 points in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional district, according a newly released Republican poll.

Among likely voters surveyed in late June, Chandler got 47 percent to Barr’s 42 percent. The poll, conducted by well-respected GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the Barr campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee, found Barr’s support remains unchanged since a February poll. Chandler’s support ticked down 2 points over the five months, a shift well within the margin of error. Full story

July 6, 2012

Texas: Ted Cruz Internal Poll Shows Lead Over David Dewhurst

Texas: Ted Cruz Internal Poll Shows Lead Over David Dewhurst

Ted Cruz (above) led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a recent internal poll. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ted Cruz led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 9 points in a recent internal poll conducted for the former Texas solicitor general’s campaign, a Cruz source has confirmed.

From the earliest days of the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Dewhurst has been the frontrunner. But in this survey, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Cruz. Forty percent supported Dewhurst, and 11 percent were undecided.

Full story

July 5, 2012

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde Poll Shows Narrowing Senate Primary Field

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde Poll Shows Narrowing Senate Primary Field

A new poll for businessman Eric Hovde showed the Wisconsin Senate GOP primary to basically be a two-way race. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call)

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde are locked in a close two-way race for the GOP Senate nomination in Wisconsin, according to an internal poll conducted for the Hovde campaign by polling firm On Message Inc.

The poll showed Thompson and Hovde at the top of the primary field, receiving support from 34 percent and 29 percent of likely Republican voters, respectively. Former Rep. Mark Neumann received support from 16 percent of respondents while Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald did not crack the 10 percent mark. Full story

June 26, 2012

Minnesota: Michele Bachmann Opponent’s Poll Shows Competitive Race

Minnesota: Michele Bachmann Opponents Poll Shows Competitive Race

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A newly released Democratic poll shows Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) could face a competitive race in November, although there is little other evidence at this point that she is in danger.

Bachmann led businessman Jim Graves (D) 48 percent to 43 percent, according to a survey paid for by the likely Democratic Farmer Labor nominee’s campaign. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.

The survey marks the first public indication that the 6th district race could be competitive. Democrats unsuccessfully targeted Bachmann in the 2008 cycle, but they argue the Congresswoman is more vulnerable than ever following her failed presidential bid. Full story

Utah: Poll Shows Jim Matheson With Healthy Lead Over Mia Love

Utah: Poll Shows Jim Matheson With Healthy Lead Over Mia Love

(Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson led his Republican opponent by 15 points in an independent poll released over the weekend.

The vulnerable incumbent, running in new territory thanks to redistricting, is facing Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, for whom national Republicans have high hopes. The new poll showed Love has a name recognition gap to overcome before November, but that margin is likely to close by then in this Republican-leaning district.

In the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll, Matheson took 53 percent to Love’s 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The survey of 379 registered voters in the 4th district was taken June 15-21 and had a 5.1-point margin of error.

June 25, 2012

Michigan: Democratic Poll Shows Gary McDowell Within 2 Points of Dan Benishek

Updated 5:33 p.m. | A new Democratic poll of Michigan’s 1st district showed former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) within 2 points of freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R).

Benishek barely leads McDowell, 40 percent to 38 percent, with 22 percent of respondents undecided, according to a survey paid for by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and released to Roll Call.

The poll is the most recent indication Democrats can compete in the northern Michigan House district this cycle. It’s one of the must-win seats for House Democrats if they want to make inroads into the GOP’s 25-seat majority this November. Full story

Missouri: John Brunner Poll Has Him Up Big

A poll released by Missouri Senate candidate John Brunner showed him up by 20 points over his competitors in the GOP primary.

In a horse race matchup among likely primary voters, Brunner led with 40 percent, followed by former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin with 20 percent each. Nineteen percent of respondents were undecided.

A spokesman for the Brunner campaign said it was a clean ballot test — that is, respondents weren’t given any additional information before being asked their candidate preference. Full story

June 22, 2012

Pollster Alan Secrest Going Out of Business

Updated 6:48 p.m. | A well-known Democratic pollster alerted his clients last week that he is going out of business — less than five months before Election Day.

“Our financial circumstances have left us no choice but to discontinue this work and close our business,” Alan Secrest wrote Thursday in an email to clients. “It has been our pleasure to serve you, and I wish we could continue. But we cannot.”

It’s highly unusual for a pollster from any party to close down shop, especially so close to an election. During the course of his decades-long career, Secrest’s clients included Democrats from all ends of the ideological spectrum, including hundreds of Congressional races around the country.

Offering his apologies, Secrest explained that he cannot offer refunds to his current clients.

“All remaining funds have gone to taxes, salaries, bills and there are simply no assets available with which to continue to operate,” he said. “Certainly this is not the path we would have chosen, but that is the most straight forward assessment of our circumstance.”

Full story

June 21, 2012

Florida: Bill Nelson Up in New Poll

In a new poll, two-term Sen. Bill Nelson led likely GOP nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV by 4 points in a Florida Senate matchup.

Nelson topped Mack 43 percent to 39 percent in the poll of registered — not likely — Florida voters. Nelson led among independent voters by 11 points, 44 percent to 33 percent.

Forty-four percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Nelson and 26 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Full story

June 20, 2012

Wisconsin Senate Poll: Tommy Thompson Leads in Republican Primary

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson led his closest competitor in the Republican Senate primary by a margin of almost 20 points in a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey, one of the first in the state since the widely followed gubernatorial recall election earlier this month, also showed Thompson ahead of presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin by 8 points.

Thompson, who was elected four times as the state’s governor, took 34 percent in a test of the GOP primary, according to the survey. The remainder of the GOP field were closely split, with former Rep. Mark Neumann, businessman Eric Hovde and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald taking 16 percent, 14 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Twenty-five percent of the likely voters polled were undecided. Full story

Pennsylvania: Internal Critz Poll Shows 10-Point Lead

Pennsylvania: Internal Critz Poll Shows 10 Point Lead

Rep. Mark Critz is one of the most vulnerable House Members this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) released an internal poll today showing him with a 10-point advantage over his Republican opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus.

Crits led Rothfus 46 percent to 36 percent in the survey paid for by the Congressman’s campaign and released to reporters.

Full story

Hawaii: Dueling Polls in Open 2nd District Democratic Primary

Hours after an independent poll showed a tied race in the open 2nd district Democratic primary, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann released an internal poll that found him continuing to hold a double-digit lead over Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard.

Hannemann led in his survey with 42 percent, followed by Gabbard with 26 percent and former state Rep. Bob Marx with 8 percent. None of the other candidates received more than 2 percent, and 17 percent of those polled remained undecided.

The Hannemann poll, conducted June 14-16 by QMark Research, included 407 registered voters and had a 4.9-point margin of error. Full story

June 19, 2012

Nebraska: Deb Fischer Has Wide Lead Over Bob Kerrey in Internal GOP Poll

Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R) campaign released an internal poll today that showed her ahead of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) by a large margin in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The poll showed Fischer at 58 percent while Kerrey garnered 33 percent.

A source from the Kerrey campaign told Roll Call that other private polling shows a much tighter race, and the source stressed that Fischer is widely unknown in the state.

Full story

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