Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
October 1, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

July 13, 2012

Hawaii: Fundraising, Dueling Polls in Senate Race

In their potential showdown for the Hawaii’s open Senate seat, Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) and former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) have in the last two days announced their second-quarter fundraising and released dueling polls.

Lingle raised more than $1.1 million in the second quarter, outpacing Hirono, who brought in $941,000 from April to June and had $2 million in cash on hand as of June 30. Lingle did not release her cash-on-hand total. Full story

July 12, 2012

Hawaii: GOP Poll Finds Close Senate Race

Hawaii: GOP Poll Finds Close Senate Race

A poll for Republican Linda Lingle's campaign showed the Hawaii Senate race is competitive. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign found the Republican would be in a tight race with either of her potential Democratic opponents in this Democratic-leaning state.

According to a polling memo from Jan van Lohuizen, the Voter Consumer Research poll found Lingle leading Rep. Mazie Hirono by 5 points and trailing former Rep. Ed Case by 1 point, which is within the 4-point margin of error. The survey of 600 likely general election voters was taken July 8-10. Full story

July 11, 2012

Texas: David Dewhurst Leads in Internal Poll

Texas: David Dewhurst Leads in Internal Poll

(Pat Sullivan/Associated Press)

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst led former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz by 8 points in a recent internal poll obtained by Roll Call.

Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Dewhurst in the July 31 GOP runoff, while 42 percent supported Cruz. National Journal’s the Hotline first reported the results of the poll, which was conducted by Dewhurst pollster Mike Baselice.

It is a striking difference from a late June Cruz internal poll obtained last week that showed Cruz with a 9-point lead over Dewhurst.

The difference in the results appears to be rooted in how each campaign determines who is a “likely runoff voter.” The Dewhurst poll surveyed those who had voted in previous GOP primaries and stated an intent to vote in the runoff. Full story

Maine: Angus King Maintains Huge Lead in Senate Race

A new nonpartisan poll of the Maine Senate race shows former Gov. Angus King (I) with a very solid lead over his Republican and Democratic challengers.

In a horse-race matchup of likely voters, King led with 55 percent of those polled. Republican Charlie Summers took 27 percent, while Democrat Cynthia Dill took 7 percent. Nine percent didn’t know for whom they would vote.

Those numbers track with another nonpartisan poll from last month, which had King at 50 percent.

King is widely expected to caucus with Democrats if he wins, though he has not publicly announced which party he would caucus with, if any. Full story

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Suggests Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde Lead GOP Primary

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde hold solid leads over their opponents in the race for the GOP nomination for Wisconsin’s open Senate seat, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey is the latest in a string of news suggesting that Hovde and Thompson are the race’s frontrunners.

The poll, which surveyed 432 likely GOP voters, shows Thompson leading Hovde with support from 35 percent of likely voters compared with Hovde’s 23 percent. Former Rep. Mark Neumann and state Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald remained in a distant third and fourth place, respectively. Twenty-five percent of of likely voters said they remained undecided. The GOP primary portion of the poll had a margin of error of 4.8 points.

The Marquette poll is the latest evidence that the primary has narrowed to two primary competitors. A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday showed Hovde leading the former governor by 2  points. An internal poll from the Hovde campaign released last week showed him trailing Thompson by 5 points.

The opposition also seems to expect to face either Thompson or Hovde in the general election. EMILY’s list released a television ad Tuesday that targets the pair and ignores the other GOP candidates. The ad buy has $400,000 behind it.

The general election portion of the poll, which surveyed 810 likely voters, showed presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin behind Thompson by 4 points and defeating all of her other potential opponents. That section had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Roll Call rates the general election as a Tossup.

July 10, 2012

Nevada: Ethics Probe Clouds Tossup Senate Race

Rep. Shelley Berkley, the Democratic nominee for the Nevada Senate seat once held by scandal-plagued Republican John Ensign, is now embroiled in an ethics investigation of her own — making a top pick-up opportunity for her party a steeper climb.

Berkley is running to unseat appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) in a presidential battleground state that is crucial to Democrats’ chances at holding both the White House and Senate. Her bid was clouded Monday by the House Ethics Committee announcement — less than four months from Election Day — that it is investigating whether Berkley broke any ethics rules or laws by saving a kidney transplant program at a hospital where her physician husband had a lucrative contract. Full story

Wisconsin: EMILY’s List Takes On Senate Frontrunners

Women Vote!, the independent expenditure arm of EMILY’s List, released its first television ad in Wisconsin this cycle in support of Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) with a $400,000 broadcast television buy.

The ad, which will air in Milwaukee, Green Bay and Wausau, targets GOP Senate candidates businessman Eric Hovde and former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

“D.C. insiders like Tommy Thompson and Eric Hovde are not going to stick up for me,”  the ad’s first subject says.

The ad continues by portraying the GOP candidates as out of touch with Wisconsin before praising Baldwin as someone who “won’t give the state away to special interests.”

The choice to take on both Thompson and Hovde underscores the changing dynamic in the GOP primary. The two candidates are quickly emerging as the race’s frontrunners. Full story

July 9, 2012

Kentucky: Andy Barr Poll Shows Him Behind by 5 Points

Kentucky: Andy Barr Poll Shows Him Behind by 5 Points

Rep. Ben Chandler (right), seen here in 2008 with then-Sen. Barack Obama, will have to run several points ahead of the president in his rural Kentucky district to get re-elected in November. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call)

Rep. Ben Chandler (D) leads Republican Andy Barr by 5 points in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional district, according a newly released Republican poll.

Among likely voters surveyed in late June, Chandler got 47 percent to Barr’s 42 percent. The poll, conducted by well-respected GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the Barr campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee, found Barr’s support remains unchanged since a February poll. Chandler’s support ticked down 2 points over the five months, a shift well within the margin of error. Full story

July 6, 2012

Texas: Ted Cruz Internal Poll Shows Lead Over David Dewhurst

Texas: Ted Cruz Internal Poll Shows Lead Over David Dewhurst

Ted Cruz (above) led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a recent internal poll. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ted Cruz led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 9 points in a recent internal poll conducted for the former Texas solicitor general’s campaign, a Cruz source has confirmed.

From the earliest days of the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Dewhurst has been the frontrunner. But in this survey, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Cruz. Forty percent supported Dewhurst, and 11 percent were undecided.

Full story

July 5, 2012

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde Poll Shows Narrowing Senate Primary Field

Wisconsin: Eric Hovde Poll Shows Narrowing Senate Primary Field

A new poll for businessman Eric Hovde showed the Wisconsin Senate GOP primary to basically be a two-way race. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call)

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde are locked in a close two-way race for the GOP Senate nomination in Wisconsin, according to an internal poll conducted for the Hovde campaign by polling firm On Message Inc.

The poll showed Thompson and Hovde at the top of the primary field, receiving support from 34 percent and 29 percent of likely Republican voters, respectively. Former Rep. Mark Neumann received support from 16 percent of respondents while Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald did not crack the 10 percent mark. Full story

June 26, 2012

Minnesota: Michele Bachmann Opponent’s Poll Shows Competitive Race

Minnesota: Michele Bachmann Opponents Poll Shows Competitive Race

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A newly released Democratic poll shows Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) could face a competitive race in November, although there is little other evidence at this point that she is in danger.

Bachmann led businessman Jim Graves (D) 48 percent to 43 percent, according to a survey paid for by the likely Democratic Farmer Labor nominee’s campaign. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.

The survey marks the first public indication that the 6th district race could be competitive. Democrats unsuccessfully targeted Bachmann in the 2008 cycle, but they argue the Congresswoman is more vulnerable than ever following her failed presidential bid. Full story

Utah: Poll Shows Jim Matheson With Healthy Lead Over Mia Love

Utah: Poll Shows Jim Matheson With Healthy Lead Over Mia Love

(Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson led his Republican opponent by 15 points in an independent poll released over the weekend.

The vulnerable incumbent, running in new territory thanks to redistricting, is facing Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, for whom national Republicans have high hopes. The new poll showed Love has a name recognition gap to overcome before November, but that margin is likely to close by then in this Republican-leaning district.

In the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll, Matheson took 53 percent to Love’s 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The survey of 379 registered voters in the 4th district was taken June 15-21 and had a 5.1-point margin of error.

June 25, 2012

Michigan: Democratic Poll Shows Gary McDowell Within 2 Points of Dan Benishek

Updated 5:33 p.m. | A new Democratic poll of Michigan’s 1st district showed former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) within 2 points of freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R).

Benishek barely leads McDowell, 40 percent to 38 percent, with 22 percent of respondents undecided, according to a survey paid for by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and released to Roll Call.

The poll is the most recent indication Democrats can compete in the northern Michigan House district this cycle. It’s one of the must-win seats for House Democrats if they want to make inroads into the GOP’s 25-seat majority this November. Full story

Missouri: John Brunner Poll Has Him Up Big

A poll released by Missouri Senate candidate John Brunner showed him up by 20 points over his competitors in the GOP primary.

In a horse race matchup among likely primary voters, Brunner led with 40 percent, followed by former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin with 20 percent each. Nineteen percent of respondents were undecided.

A spokesman for the Brunner campaign said it was a clean ballot test — that is, respondents weren’t given any additional information before being asked their candidate preference. Full story

June 22, 2012

Pollster Alan Secrest Going Out of Business

Updated 6:48 p.m. | A well-known Democratic pollster alerted his clients last week that he is going out of business — less than five months before Election Day.

“Our financial circumstances have left us no choice but to discontinue this work and close our business,” Alan Secrest wrote Thursday in an email to clients. “It has been our pleasure to serve you, and I wish we could continue. But we cannot.”

It’s highly unusual for a pollster from any party to close down shop, especially so close to an election. During the course of his decades-long career, Secrest’s clients included Democrats from all ends of the ideological spectrum, including hundreds of Congressional races around the country.

Offering his apologies, Secrest explained that he cannot offer refunds to his current clients.

“All remaining funds have gone to taxes, salaries, bills and there are simply no assets available with which to continue to operate,” he said. “Certainly this is not the path we would have chosen, but that is the most straight forward assessment of our circumstance.”

Full story

Sign In

Forgot password?

Or

Subscribe

Receive daily coverage of the people, politics and personality of Capitol Hill.

Subscription | Free Trial

Logging you in. One moment, please...