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May 22, 2012

Massachusetts: Dem Poll Has Senate Race Tied

Massachusetts: Dem Poll Has Senate Race Tied

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll from earlier this month of likely Massachusetts voters found the competitive Senate race between Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren tied.

In a horserace matchup between Brown and Warren, the presumptive Democratic nominee, both took 46 percent of the vote. Full story

New Mexico: Internal Polls Illustrate Tight Race for Democratic Nod

Two new internal polls in New Mexico’s 1st district illustrate how tight the battle for the Democratic nomination is with just two weeks to go.

Former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, state Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham are running in the June 5 Democratic primary. The winner will be favored to hold the Albuquerque-based seat, which Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) is vacating to run for Senate. Full story

May 17, 2012

Poll: David Cicilline Has Tough Primary in Rhode Island

Poll: David Cicilline Has Tough Primary in Rhode Island

Rep. David Cicilline has a difficult re-election race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. David Cicilline, one of the most endangered House Democrats this cycle, might not even make it out of the September primary, according to a poll conducted for Rhode Island television affiliate WPRI.

The Congressman got 40 percent versus 36 percent for his primary challenger, businessman Anthony Gemma. Twenty percent of those surveyed were undecided.

Full story

May 15, 2012

Massachusetts: Richard Tisei Leads John Tierney in Republican Poll

Massachusetts: Richard Tisei Leads John Tierney in Republican Poll

Richard Tisei (above) took 40 percent to Rep. John Tierney's 33 percent in a recent poll. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Congressional candidate Richard Tisei (R) led Rep. John Tierney (D) by 7 points in a recent 6th district poll.

In a confidential polling memo sent from GOP pollster John McLaughlin to Tisei’s campaign manager — and obtained by Roll Call — Tisei took 40 percent to Tierney’s 33 percent, with 27 percent undecided. The horse race numbers include voters who definitely, probably and lean toward voting for each candidate.

Six months before the election, it’s a potentially major development in heavily Democratic Massachusetts, a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the House since 1994. It’s also likely to be a fundraising boon to Tisei, who has outraised Tierney in each of the past two quarters. Full story

May 14, 2012

Arkansas: Tom Cotton Up in New 4th District Poll

A new poll shows attorney Tom Cotton has pulled ahead of 2010 GOP nominee Beth Anne Rankin in the 4th Congressional district’s GOP primary.

A May 10 Talk Business-Hendrix College survey of likely voters found Cotton garnered 51 percent to Rankin’s 33 percent. Ten percent didn’t know for whom they would vote.

An earlier poll by the same group, conducted on April 17, found the race tied at 38.5 percent each.

Cotton has been up on local TV with some strong biographical ads, which may explain his movement in the poll. Full story

May 11, 2012

Florida: Democratic Poll Shows Allen West Tied With Patrick Murphy

Florida: Democratic Poll Shows Allen West Tied With Patrick Murphy

A poll released Thursday by Rep. Allen West's Democratic opponent showed the race as a dead heat. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll released Thursday by Congressional candidate Patrick Murphy (D) found him tied with Republican Rep. Allen West 45 percent to 45 percent in a horse-race matchup. Ten percent of the likely voters polled were undecided. Murphy is challenging West in Florida’s newly configured 18th district.

The survey conducted by longtime Florida pollster Keith Frederick found that West, one of the 112th Congress’ most outspoken Members, has 83 percent name recognition in the district. The polling memo released publicly did not include Murphy’s name ID. Both decided to run for the newly-configured seat after redistricting; both were previously running in Florida’s 22nd district.

The survey found presumptive GOP White House nominee Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama in the district. In a ballot test, Romney led with 49 percent to Obama’s 46 percent. Four percent were undecided.

Full story

May 10, 2012

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown Close in New Poll; Catholics Favor Brown

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown Close in New Poll; Catholics Favor Brown

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren continue to be locked in a statistical dead heat in their Massachusetts Senatorial race. According to a late April poll conducted by the nonpartisan MassINC Polling Group, Warren had an edge within the margin of error.

In a horse race among registered voters, the Democrat led Brown by 2 points, 43 percent to 41 percent. Full story

May 1, 2012

Kentucky: Dueling Polls in 6th District

Kentucky: Dueling Polls in 6th District

Two polls give Rep. Ben Chandler (right) the lead in Kentucky's 6th district race, but one shows Chandler in a better position than the other does. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 4:00 p.m. | Just how competitive is the race in Kentucky’s 6th district, where four-term Rep. Ben Chandler (D) faces a rematch with attorney Andy Barr (R)? That depends on which poll you believe.

Chandler’s campaign released a poll Monday showing him with a 24-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Chandler, 54 percent to 30 percent.

But a poll from Barr’s pollsters had the Republican trailing Chandler by only 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent.

What might account for the difference? Chandler’s pollsters, Mark Mellman’s the Mellman Group, surveyed 400 voters representing the “likely 2012 electorate” in late March, while Public Opinion Strategies, Barr’s pollsters, surveyed 400 “likely 2012 voters” in late February.

Full story

By Joshua Miller Posted at 3:12 p.m.
Ky.-6, Polling

April 27, 2012

Between the Lines: Then There Was One

Kansas is now the only state in the country with an outstanding redistricting map.

New Hampshire’s new map became law on Monday when Gov. John Lynch (D) signed a bill passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature. Reps. Charles Bass and Frank Guinta ultimately agreed to the map after some earlier tension over moving voters between the two districts.  Both Congressmen are being targeted by Democrats in an effort to defeat them this cycle.

April 26, 2012

Florida: Vern Buchanan Has 22-Point Lead in GOP Poll

Florida: Vern Buchanan Has 22 Point Lead in GOP Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) led former state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald (D) by more than 20 points in a GOP poll of 16th district voters obtained by Roll Call.

The three-term Congressman led 58 percent to 36 percent. Six percent of the 400 likely voters polled were undecided in the survey conducted by respected GOP pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies. Full story

April 25, 2012

California: Internal Poll Shows Close 2nd District Race

An internal poll commissioned for Democratic activist Norman Solomon in California’s open 2nd district found him in position to advance beyond the June 5 primary, with several other Democrats close behind.

The race to replace retiring Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) will most likely be between two Democrats under California’s new top-two primary format, in which two candidates no matter their party may advance to the general election. Full story

Arizona: Richard Carmona Poll Shows Competitive Race

Arizona: Richard Carmona Poll Shows Competitive Race

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll done for former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) shows the Arizona Senate race is competitive for Democrats this fall, an argument national party strategists have been working to make.

The Anzalone Liszt Research survey found Rep. Jeff Flake (R) ahead of Carmona 43 percent to 39 percent in a general election matchup. The poll did not test Carmona against Flake’s GOP primary rival, real estate investor Wil Cardon.

Carmona, who has never run for office before, had a much lower name identification than Flake, who was first elected to the House in 2000. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed were able to identify Carmona, while 48 percent said they knew who Flake was. Full story

April 24, 2012

New York: Buerkle Up Against Maffei in New Poll

New York: Buerkle Up Against Maffei in New Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.), whose re-election prospects were damaged by redistricting, begins the race with a slight lead, according to a GOP poll obtained by Roll Call. Full story

April 19, 2012

Gallup: Congressional Approval Ticks Up to 17 Percent

Maybe Americans have learned to hate the game and not the players. But probably not.

Approval of the way Congress is handling its job ticked up to 17 percent, the highest since last July, according to the latest Gallup poll, released this morning.

That’s a bit higher than the all-time low of 10 percent in February.

Disapproval of Congress now stands at 79 percent, also the lowest disapproval number the respected polling company found since July. Full story

April 18, 2012

Pennsylvania: New Poll Shows Altmire-Critz Race Close

Pennsylvania: New Poll Shows Altmire Critz Race Close

Reps. Jason Altmire (left) and Mark Critz prepare to shake hands before a debate at the WPXI studio in Pittsburgh. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Rep. Jason Altmire led Rep. Mark Critz by a mere 4 points in a test of Tuesday’s Democratic primary matchup, according to a poll released today.

The Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV poll showed Altmire ahead of Critz 43 percent to 39 percent in the finals days of their increasingly competitive contest.

The two Democrats are facing off in southwestern Pennsylvania’s 12 district after GOP-led redistricting combined their current territory. Full story

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