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October 25, 2014

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July 25, 2012

New York: Dan Maffei Up 4 Points Over Ann Marie Buerkle in Democratic Poll

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the Service Employees International Union found former Rep. Dan Maffei (D) led freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) by 4 points — within the margin of error — in a recent poll of the Empire State’s newly configured 24th district.

In a horse-race matchup, Maffei pulled 44 percent, Buerkle got 40 percent and Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum received 5 percent. Eleven percent of the likely voters surveyed said they were undecided.

Full story

July 24, 2012

California Poll: Julia Brownley Leads Tony Strickland in Open 26th

Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) led state Sen. Tony Strickland (R) in the race for the 26th district, according to a poll conducted for the Democrat’s campaign and obtained by Roll Call.

In a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, Brownley topped Strickland by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the competitive battle for this open, Ventura County-based seat. While Brownley’s lead was within the margin of error, Democrats view this poll as a good sign for her in what could be among the closest House races in California. Full story

Massachusetts: New Poll Shows Close Senate Race

Massachusetts: New Poll Shows Close Senate Race

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren remain locked in a statistical dead heat, according to a nonpartisan poll released today.

A MassINC Polling Group survey found if the election were held today, 38 percent of registered voters would cast their ballot for Brown, while 40 percent would cast their vote for Warren, a Harvard professor and consumer advocate. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Because this was a poll of registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, the undecided number is probably higher than the actual number of voters who haven’t yet made up their mind in the white-hot race which could decide control of the Senate. Full story

New York: Democratic Poll Has Tim Bishop Up Big

New York: Democratic Poll Has Tim Bishop Up Big

Rep. Tim Bishop faces a rematch with his 2010 opponent. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the Service Employees International Union found Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) in very comfortable shape four months before his rematch with businessman Randy Altschuler (R) in the Empire State’s 1st district.

In a horse-race matchup, Bishop led Altschuler 56 percent to 32 percent, with 12 percent of those polled undecided. The poll of likely voters, conducted by respected Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and obtained by Roll Call, also found Bishop with a relatively favorable image in the eastern Long Island district. Full story

July 23, 2012

California: DCCC Pushes Back With Poll in 47th District

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pushed back today against a poll conducted for Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong (R) that showed a close race with state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) for California’s Democratic-leaning 47th district. Full story

July 20, 2012

California: GOP Polls Find Competitive House Races

California: GOP Polls Find Competitive House Races

Rep. Lois Capps is in a competitive re-election race in California. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Polls conducted for two California Republicans found close races in Democratic-leaning districts that rank among the GOP’s targets for November.

According to memos released by their campaigns, former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) trailed Rep. Lois Capps (D) by 2 points in the 24th district, and Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong (R) trailed state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) by 3 points in the 47th district. Full story

July 19, 2012

Washington: Tight Race for Second in 1st District

Three Democrats are in a close battle for second place in the all-party primary for Washington’s 1st district, a poll released today found, with ballots hitting voters’ mailboxes by the end of this week.

Snohomish County Councilman John Koster, the lone Republican, took 36 percent in the poll conducted by Seattle-based consulting firm Strategies 360. Full story

July 18, 2012

Florida: Vern Buchanan Up in GOP Poll

Florida: Vern Buchanan Up in GOP Poll

Rep. Vern Buchanan (above) is leading Democrat Keith Fitzgerald in a new poll of Florida's 16th district race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new survey from Republican pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies found Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) comfortably ahead of his Democratic opponent in Florida’s newly configured 16th district.

In a horse-race matchup, Buchanan led Democrat Keith Fitzgerald by 22 points, 54 percent to 32 percent. It’s the same lead Buchanan had in a March poll conducted by Bolger.

Full story

July 16, 2012

Maine: Democratic Poll Shows Mike Michaud Way Up

Maine: Democratic Poll Shows Mike Michaud Way Up

(Joshua Miller/CQ Roll Call)

A new poll from Maine Rep. Mike Michaud (D) shows him leading his GOP challenger, state Senate President Kevin Raye, by 32 points. In a horse-race matchup among likely voters, Michaud led Raye 62 percent to 30 percent, with 8 percent of those polled undecided.

In a polling memo from Democratic firm Normington, Petts & Associates, which conducted the survey for Michaud, pollster Jill Normington noted that Michaud is well-liked. Fifty-one percent of those polled had a favorable impression of Michaud, while only 21 percent had saw him unfavorably.

The Raye campaign knocked the release of the poll.

“It appears as though the Michaud campaign needs a little comic relief,” said Raye adviser Kathie Summers-Grice. “Any time Mike has a bad fundraising quarter, it’s duck and deflect and let’s throw something out there.” Full story

Pennsylvania: Democratic Poll Shows Mark Critz With Single-Digit Lead

Pennsylvania: Democratic Poll Shows Mark Critz With Single Digit Lead

A new Democratic poll shows Rep. Mark Critz with a slim lead over his GOP opponent. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Democratic poll showed Rep. Mark Critz (D) leading his GOP opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus, by a slim 6-point margin in the competitive southwestern Pennsylvania district.

Critz led Rothfus, 44 percent to 38 percent, in the survey conducted for House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and the SEIU.

Republicans plan to target the elusive 12th district after several unsuccessful attempts to pick it up in recent years. Last year, Keystone State GOP officials redrew the Congressional boundaries and made Critz’s district more conservative.

This survey marks the second Democratic poll showing Critz ahead since the April primary. The Critz campaign released its own poll from mid-June showing the Congressman with a 10-point lead.

Benenson Strategy Group conducted the House Majority PAC and SEIU poll of 400 likely general election voters from July 9 to 11. The survey had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup.

July 13, 2012

Hawaii: Fundraising, Dueling Polls in Senate Race

In their potential showdown for the Hawaii’s open Senate seat, Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) and former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) have in the last two days announced their second-quarter fundraising and released dueling polls.

Lingle raised more than $1.1 million in the second quarter, outpacing Hirono, who brought in $941,000 from April to June and had $2 million in cash on hand as of June 30. Lingle did not release her cash-on-hand total. Full story

July 12, 2012

Hawaii: GOP Poll Finds Close Senate Race

Hawaii: GOP Poll Finds Close Senate Race

A poll for Republican Linda Lingle's campaign showed the Hawaii Senate race is competitive. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign found the Republican would be in a tight race with either of her potential Democratic opponents in this Democratic-leaning state.

According to a polling memo from Jan van Lohuizen, the Voter Consumer Research poll found Lingle leading Rep. Mazie Hirono by 5 points and trailing former Rep. Ed Case by 1 point, which is within the 4-point margin of error. The survey of 600 likely general election voters was taken July 8-10. Full story

July 11, 2012

Texas: David Dewhurst Leads in Internal Poll

Texas: David Dewhurst Leads in Internal Poll

(Pat Sullivan/Associated Press)

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst led former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz by 8 points in a recent internal poll obtained by Roll Call.

Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Dewhurst in the July 31 GOP runoff, while 42 percent supported Cruz. National Journal’s the Hotline first reported the results of the poll, which was conducted by Dewhurst pollster Mike Baselice.

It is a striking difference from a late June Cruz internal poll obtained last week that showed Cruz with a 9-point lead over Dewhurst.

The difference in the results appears to be rooted in how each campaign determines who is a “likely runoff voter.” The Dewhurst poll surveyed those who had voted in previous GOP primaries and stated an intent to vote in the runoff. Full story

Maine: Angus King Maintains Huge Lead in Senate Race

A new nonpartisan poll of the Maine Senate race shows former Gov. Angus King (I) with a very solid lead over his Republican and Democratic challengers.

In a horse-race matchup of likely voters, King led with 55 percent of those polled. Republican Charlie Summers took 27 percent, while Democrat Cynthia Dill took 7 percent. Nine percent didn’t know for whom they would vote.

Those numbers track with another nonpartisan poll from last month, which had King at 50 percent.

King is widely expected to caucus with Democrats if he wins, though he has not publicly announced which party he would caucus with, if any. Full story

Wisconsin: Marquette Poll Suggests Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde Lead GOP Primary

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde hold solid leads over their opponents in the race for the GOP nomination for Wisconsin’s open Senate seat, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey is the latest in a string of news suggesting that Hovde and Thompson are the race’s frontrunners.

The poll, which surveyed 432 likely GOP voters, shows Thompson leading Hovde with support from 35 percent of likely voters compared with Hovde’s 23 percent. Former Rep. Mark Neumann and state Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald remained in a distant third and fourth place, respectively. Twenty-five percent of of likely voters said they remained undecided. The GOP primary portion of the poll had a margin of error of 4.8 points.

The Marquette poll is the latest evidence that the primary has narrowed to two primary competitors. A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday showed Hovde leading the former governor by 2  points. An internal poll from the Hovde campaign released last week showed him trailing Thompson by 5 points.

The opposition also seems to expect to face either Thompson or Hovde in the general election. EMILY’s list released a television ad Tuesday that targets the pair and ignores the other GOP candidates. The ad buy has $400,000 behind it.

The general election portion of the poll, which surveyed 810 likely voters, showed presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin behind Thompson by 4 points and defeating all of her other potential opponents. That section had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Roll Call rates the general election as a Tossup.

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