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October 10, 2015

Posts in "Polling"

August 9, 2012

Indiana: New Dem Poll Shows Tied Senate Race

Rep. Joe Donnelly (left) is in a dead heat with opponent Richard Mourdock in the latest poll released by his campaign. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) released a new poll today showing he remains in a dead heat with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the Hoosier State’s open Senate race.

Donnelly received 41 percent to Mourdock’s 40 percent in the survey obtained by Roll Call and paid for by the Democrat’s campaign.

The survey shows Democrats believe the race remains competitive several months after Mourdock defeated six-term Sen. Dick Lugar for the Republican nomination in May. Roll Call rates the Indiana Senate race as Leans Republican. Full story

August 8, 2012

Illinois: Jason Plummer Poll Shows Him With Double-Digit Lead

A new poll from businessman Jason Plummer’s campaign shows the GOP nominee leading by double digits in the open 12th district.

Plummer had 45 percent and retired Maj. Gen. William Enyart (D) received 28 percent in the Public Opinion Strategies poll.

The retirement of Rep. Jerry Costello (D-Ill.) created an open-seat race in this downstate district. It’s a competitive race, and Roll Call rates it as a Tossup. Full story

August 3, 2012

West Virginia: Nick Rahall Way Up in Democratic Poll

(Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) led his Republican challenger, state Del. Rick Snuffer, by 28 points in a new Democratic poll.

In a horse-race matchup, Rahall, seeking his 19th term in the House, pulled 62 percent to Snuffer’s 34 percent. According to a polling memo released by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, which conducted the survey, “Rahall leads every gender, age, and geographic subgroup — including men and women, Independents, and in the Charleston/Huntingdon and the Bluefield/Beckley media markets.”

The poll found 64 percent of likely voters in the 3rd district had a favorable view of Rahall, while 30 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Snuffer’s favorable/unfavorable numbers were not released.

Full story

August 2, 2012

California: GOP Poll Finds 9th District Race a Dead Heat

Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and his Republican challenger, Ricky Gill, are in a dead heat in the 9th district, according to a poll conducted for Gill and the National Republican Congressional Committee. Full story

August 1, 2012

California: Jerry McNerney Leads Ricky Gill by 16 Points in Own Poll

A poll conducted for Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney found him comfortably ahead of his GOP challenger in his California district. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

A poll conducted for Rep. Jerry McNerney found the Democrat ahead of his Republican challenger, Ricky Gill, 49 percent to 33 percent.

McNerney led Gill by 24 points among “decline to state” voters, according to the polling memo from Lake Research Partners. The firm conducted the poll of 504 likely voters from July 8-11, and it had a 4.4-point margin of error. Its sample included 45 percent Democrats, 38 percent Republicans and 18 percent DTS or other voters.

This is one of a number of competitive races in California this cycle. Roll Call rates it as Leans Democratic.

Arizona: Ron Barber Up Over Martha McSally in Internal Poll

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll that Rep. Ron Barber’s (D-Ariz.) campaign released today showed the incumbent has a solid lead over retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally as they head into the fall election.

Barber has the support of 53 percent of respondents, while 40 percent said they backed McSally. Both are their parties’ likely nominees.

Full story

New York: DCCC Poll Has Bill Owens Up 12 Points Over Matt Doheny

Updated, 6:25 p.m. A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found vulnerable Rep. Bill Owens (D) ahead of Republican Matt Doheny by 12 points in a horse-race matchup.

In a head-to-head ballot test in the newly configured 21st district, Owens got 50 percent to Doheny’s 38 percent. Green Party candidate Donald Hassig pulled 4 percent, while 8 percent were undecided.

Redistricting did no favors for Owens, who won in 2010 against Doheny and a third candidate with only 48 percent of the vote. The partisan tilt of the upstate district remained about the same: tossup territory. Full story

July 31, 2012

New York: Conflicting Polls Released in 19th District

It’s the battle of the polls in upstate New York.

This morning, a Republican poll showed freshman Rep. Chris Gibson (R) leading his Democratic challenger, Julian Schreibman, by 17 points. This afternoon, Schreibman’s campaign released a poll showing the Republican up by 10 points.

The Democratic poll found Gibson leading Schreibman, 42 percent to 32 percent. (The Republican poll found Gibson leading Schreibman, 53 percent to 36 percent.)

The second poll, conducted by respected pollster Jefrey Pollock of the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, found Schreibman to be largely unknown, with significant room to grow his name ID. It also found that Gibson was only familiar to 46 percent of voters in the district. Full story

North Carolina: DCCC Releases Poll Showing Mike McIntyre Ahead

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found vulnerable Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) leading his Republican challenger, state Sen. David Rouzer, by 19 points. That’s a very different image than the one painted by a GOP poll released Monday, which found McIntyre leading Rouzer by only 4 points.

The Democratic survey found McIntyre led Rouzer 53 percent to 34 percent, including those who were undecided but leaned toward one candidate or the other. Full story

Democratic House Majority Super PAC Releases Polls Showing Leads in Utah, Maryland

Rep. Jim Matheson (right) leads Mia Love in Utah's 4th district race, according to a poll released by the House Majority PAC. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, released two polls this morning that indicate Democrats are well-positioned in high-profile races in Utah and Maryland.

In the tossup race for Utah’s 4th, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Rep. Jim Matheson (D), while 33 percent supported Mia Love (R). In the Maryland 6th district survey, businessman John Delaney (D) had the support of 44 percent of those polled, while 42 percent said they would vote for Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R). The difference is within the poll’s margin of error.

Full story

New York: GOP Poll Shows Chris Gibson Ahead by Double Digits

Rep. Chris Gibson is one of several New York freshmen who are vulnerable. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Republican Rep. Chris Gibson led Democrat Julian Schreibman by 17 points in the reconfigured 19th district in upstate New York, according to a new GOP poll. Gibson got 53 percent to Schreibman’s 36 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided about the race.

A memo about the poll, conducted by respected Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Roll Call, also found the GOP leading the generic Congressional ballot. Full story

July 30, 2012

California Poll: Brian Bilbray, Scott Peters Tied in 52nd District

Rep. Brian Bilbray tied with his Democratic opponent for California's 52nd district in a recent poll. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters found the Democrat tied with Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in the 52nd district.

Peters and Bilbray both took 40 percent, including those only leaning toward either candidate, with 19 percent undecided. This is a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, who need to capitalize in California for a chance at the House majority.

Both parties’ House campaign committees have reserved about $1.6 million in fall TV time in San Diego. Full story

Texas: Dueling Final Polls in Senate Runoff

Supporters of Ted Cruz remained confident heading into Tuesday's Texas Senate runoff. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Come Wednesday morning, at least one pollster will have some explaining to do about final numbers heading into Tuesday’s Texas Senate runoff.  That’s because the last surveys released over the weekend showed both Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz ahead.

A Dewhurst poll conducted last week showed him ahead of Cruz by 5 points. Then Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, released an automated survey that showed Cruz up by 10 points.

Cruz has steadily built momentum since the late May primary, and most observers of the race believe he will win — probably by a comfortable margin. Sources in the Cruz camp were confident going into the weekend, saying their polling has held steady since Roll Call obtained a late June internal survey that showed Cruz in the lead.

Full story

North Carolina: GOP Poll Shows Mike McIntyre With Small Lead, Well Under 50 Percent

Rep. Mike McIntyre (left) is among the most vulnerable House Democrats this cycle. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Vulnerable North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) had a slight edge over state Sen. David Rouzer, his Republican opponent, according to a new poll conducted by the Rouzer campaign.

In a matchup among likely voters in the reconfigured 7th district, McIntyre pulled 44 percent to Rouzer’s 40 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Redistricting made the 7th significantly more favorable to Republicans and made McIntyre one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the House. Full story

Missouri: McCaskill Trails All Republicans in Latest Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) is just that, according to a new poll released this weekend by two Missouri media outlets.

In horserace matchups, McCaskill trailed all three of her serious Republican primary opponents.

Businessman John Brunner, who has put millions of his own money into the race, did the best against McCaskill, garnering 52 percent to the Senator’s 41 percent. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman pulled 49 percent to McCaskill’s 41 percent. And Rep. Todd Akin got 49 percent to McCaskill’s 44 percent. Full story

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