Indiana: Dem Poll Shows Lugar Leads Mourdock by 6 Points

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) is barely leading his primary opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, less than two months before the primary, according to a Democratic poll released today.

The numbers showed the six-term Senator in rough shape but still ahead of Mourdock, 45 percent to 39 percent.

Lugar faces the toughest re-election campaign of his career in the May 8 primary. Since the start of this cycle, Republicans viewed him as vulnerable in a primary, but polling of his race has been scarce in part because Indiana law restricts automated calls, including polling.

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Nebraska: Bruning Internal Poll Shows Big Lead

A poll conducted for Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning showed him with a wide lead in the GOP Senate primary. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll commissioned by Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning’s Senate campaign showed him holding a strong lead over his Republican primary rivals.

Bruning garnered 52 percent, followed by state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who got 19 percent, and state Sen. Deb Fischer, who got 11 percent.

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Florida: Poll Shows Mica With Surmountable Lead vs. Adams

(Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ten-term Rep. John Mica (R) led freshman Rep. Sandy Adams (R) in a new poll of Republican primary voters in Florida’s reconfigured 7th district in which both Members are running for re-election.

Mica led Adams 46 percent to 30 percent in a horse-race matchup , but Mica’s lead appears surmountable with the proper messaging, according to a polling memo obtained by Roll Call.

In the two-page memo, dated Monday to the Adams campaign team, respected pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies wrote: “Adams has a terrific shot to defeat John Mica in a Republican primary if she has the necessary financial resources to compete. As Republican primary voters learn more information about the two candidates in the months leading up to the August primary, Sandy will close this ballot gap significantly.”

When interviewers added neutral biographical information about both candidates, Adams took a lead in a head-to-head matchup, 42 percent to 39 percent.

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Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up Eight Points in Latest Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) led Elizabeth Warren (D) by 8 points in a new poll released today.

A survey by the Western New England University Polling Institute found 49 percent of registered Massachusetts voters would cast their ballot for Brown if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote for Warren, a Harvard professor and the presumptive Democratic nominee. Ten percent were undecided.

The poll, taken Feb. 23 through Thursday, matches two other February polls that showed Brown leading Warren in a horse-race matchup. Full story

Massachusetts: Early February Poll Showed Scott Brown Up in Senate Race

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) led Elizabeth Warren in a head-to-head Senate matchup by 9 points, according to a private poll taken earlier this month and obtained by Roll Call. The survey had Warren garnering 43 percent and Brown taking 52 percent.

Recent public polling of registered voters had Brown up by an identical 9-point margin. Recent public polling of likely Bay State voters had Warren with a slight edge in a horse race matchup.

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New Mexico: Heather Wilson Up Big in Senate Primary Poll

Former New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican Senate nomination, according to an internal poll released today.

Public Opinion Strategies partner Glen Bolger conducted the poll less than a week after Lt. Gov. John Sanchez’s Feb. 9 announcement that he was dropping out of the race. His decision left conservative businessman Greg Sowards as Wilson’s only GOP challenger. Full story

Pennsylvania: Tim Murphy’s Campaign Poll Shows Wide Primary Lead

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Pennsylvania Rep. Tim Murphy holds an overwhelming lead over his GOP primary challenger in the redrawn 18th district, according to an internal Murphy campaign poll obtained by Roll Call. Full story

Massachusetts: Scott Brown Up in New Senate Poll

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) led presumptive Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren by 9 points in a new poll of registered voters. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Brown, while 40 percent said they would vote for Warren. Nine percent were undecided.

Among independents, a voting bloc likely to decide the tossup contest, Brown led Warren 60 percent to 28 percent.

Fifty-two percent of those polled had a favorable opinion of Brown while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of him; 17 percent had heard of him but were undecided. Thirty-five percent of those polled had a favorable view of Warren, while 28 percent had an unfavorable impression of her; 24 percent had heard of her but were undecided. Full story

Michigan: Hoekstra Touts Primary Poll After Ad Mishap

It’s been a couple of rough weeks for former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) after his Senate campaign released a controversial campaign advertisement panned by Democrats and Republicans as racially insensitive.

But Hoekstra’s campaign today flaunted a new Detroit News poll that showed he’s still in good shape to win the GOP nomination — although similar surveys show he continues to face a tough race against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

Just more than 50 percent of survey respondents picked Hoekstra over his chief competition in the primary, charter schools executive Clark Durant, who received just less than 5 percent in the poll. Thirty-eight percent of registered GOP voters polled were undecided about the Aug. 7 primary. Full story

Massachusetts: Poll Has Senate Race Essentially Tied

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

A new poll found Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) and presumptive Democratic nominee Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren essentially tied in the tossup Senate race.

Warren led Brown by 3 points in a horse-race matchup, 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error. Eleven percent of those polled didn’t know for whom they would vote. Full story

Indiana: Dick Lugar Internal Poll Shows Big Lead Over Richard Mourdock

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Dick Lugar is up big over state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in Indiana’s GOP Senate primary, according to an internal poll the Senator’s campaign released.

The poll showed Lugar ahead of Mourdock, 55 percent to 30 percent among likely primary voters. The poll was conducted by Adam Geller at National Research Inc. Previously, Lugar used American Viewpoint to do his polling, but the campaign decided to switch firms, according to a Politico report.

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Massachusetts: Joseph Kennedy III Has Big Lead in New Poll

In Massachusetts, the Kennedy name is still gold.

Attorney Joseph Kennedy III, the son of ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.) and the likely Democratic nominee in the Bay State’s 4th district, had a huge lead over his probable Republican challenger, businessman Sean Bielat, according to a new poll. Sixty percent of registered voters surveyed would vote for Kennedy, while just 28 percent would vote for Bielat. Seven percent said they didn’t know. Full story

Virginia: Poll Shows Kaine, Allen Remain Tied

Tim Kaine (above) and George Allen have been neck and neck in polls during their race for Senate in Virginia. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Govs. Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R) are still unable to create separation in the state’s marquee open-seat Senate race.

A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey released Wednesday found Kaine with 45 percent to Allen’s 44 percent. The candidates have been within 2 points in each of the five polls that Quinnipiac has conducted since June.
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Illinois: Pro-Kinzinger Poll Shows Him Tied With Don Manzullo

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (above) faces fellow GOP Rep. Don Manzullo in a primary next month. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Illinois Republicans Don Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger are locked in a competitive primary, according to a new survey from a super PAC supporting Kinzinger.

The Congressmen are tied at 43 percent in the poll paid for by the Campaign for Primary Accountability. 14 percent of survey respondents said they were undecided about the March 20 primary. Full story

Maine: Democratic Poll Shows Michaud With Big Lead

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Mike Michaud has a solid lead over his Republican challenger in Maine’s 2nd district, according to a poll commissioned by the Democratic lawmaker’s campaign.

Michaud led state Senate President Kevin Raye (R) 55 percent to 32 percent in the poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Normington Petts. The survey also showed Michaud with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 51 percent/19 percent and with 88 percent name identification in the redrawn district.

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