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August 1, 2015

Posts in "Polling"

July 30, 2012

California Poll: Brian Bilbray, Scott Peters Tied in 52nd District

Rep. Brian Bilbray tied with his Democratic opponent for California's 52nd district in a recent poll. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters found the Democrat tied with Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in the 52nd district.

Peters and Bilbray both took 40 percent, including those only leaning toward either candidate, with 19 percent undecided. This is a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, who need to capitalize in California for a chance at the House majority.

Both parties’ House campaign committees have reserved about $1.6 million in fall TV time in San Diego. Full story

Texas: Dueling Final Polls in Senate Runoff

Come Wednesday morning, at least one pollster will have some explaining to do about final numbers heading into Tuesday’s Texas Senate runoff.  That’s because the last surveys released over the weekend showed both Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz ahead.

A Dewhurst poll conducted last week showed him ahead of Cruz by 5 points. Then Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, released an automated survey that showed Cruz up by 10 points.

Cruz has steadily built momentum since the late May primary, and most observers of the race believe he will win — probably by a comfortable margin. Sources in the Cruz camp were confident going into the weekend, saying their polling has held steady since Roll Call obtained a late June internal survey that showed Cruz in the lead.

Full story

North Carolina: GOP Poll Shows Mike McIntyre With Small Lead, Well Under 50 Percent

Vulnerable North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) had a slight edge over state Sen. David Rouzer, his Republican opponent, according to a new poll conducted by the Rouzer campaign.

In a matchup among likely voters in the reconfigured 7th district, McIntyre pulled 44 percent to Rouzer’s 40 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Redistricting made the 7th significantly more favorable to Republicans and made McIntyre one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the House. Full story

Missouri: McCaskill Trails All Republicans in Latest Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) is just that, according to a new poll released this weekend by two Missouri media outlets.

In horserace matchups, McCaskill trailed all three of her serious Republican primary opponents.

Businessman John Brunner, who has put millions of his own money into the race, did the best against McCaskill, garnering 52 percent to the Senator’s 41 percent. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman pulled 49 percent to McCaskill’s 41 percent. And Rep. Todd Akin got 49 percent to McCaskill’s 44 percent. Full story

July 27, 2012

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp Leads Rick Berg in Poll

Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) led Rep. Rick Berg (R) 50 percent to 44 percent in a Senate race poll conducted for the North Dakota Democratic Party. Full story

July 26, 2012

Arizona: David Schweikert Up Over Ben Quayle in Internal Poll

Updated 10:05 p.m. | Rep. David Schweikert led fellow Republican Rep. Ben Quayle by 16 points in a recent Schweikert campaign internal poll.

The two Congressmen are engaged in a blockbuster Member-vs.-Member race for Arizona’s 6th district that has caught the attention of state Republicans. According to the survey from this past Sunday, 49 percent of respondents supported Schweikert, while 33 percent said they intended to vote for Quayle.

There had been rumblings in Arizona political circles of an internal campaign poll showing a wide Schweikert lead for several days.

The poll, conducted by Adam Geller of National Research Inc., was conducted July 22 and was a live telephone survey. It included 300 “likely GOP primary voters” and had a margin of error of 5.66 points.

Whoever wins this race will likely have a lock on the district for years to come. Roll Call rates this race as Safe Republican.

Updated 10:05 p.m.

A source in the Quayle camp said that it is a close race and Schweikert is “not ahead.”

Michigan: Poll Gives Gary Peters Big Lead Over Hansen Clarke

A new poll shows Rep. Gary Peters ahead of Rep. Hansen Clarke by double digits in their upcoming Democratic primary in Michigan’s 14th district.

Peters led Clarke, 45 percent to 27 percent, according to a survey released Wednesday and sponsored by Fox News 2 Detroit. Full story

Hawaii: Mazie Hirono Leads Linda Lingle by Double Digits in DSCC Poll

A new Democratic poll shows Rep. Mazie Hirono (above) leading former Gov. Linda Lingle in a general election matchup. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Update 11:00 a.m. | A Democratic poll released this morning found Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) well ahead of former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in a test of Hawaii’s likely general election Senate matchup.

Hirono led Lingle by 19 points in the poll, conducted by the Mellman Group on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It was released today, the same day that Hirono and former Rep. Ed Case will meet for their final debate before the Aug. 11 Democratic primary and as Hirono highlights her ability to work across the aisle on behalf of Hawaii’s interests. Full story

July 25, 2012

New York: Dan Maffei Up 4 Points Over Ann Marie Buerkle in Democratic Poll

A new poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the Service Employees International Union found former Rep. Dan Maffei (D) led freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) by 4 points — within the margin of error — in a recent poll of the Empire State’s newly configured 24th district.

In a horse-race matchup, Maffei pulled 44 percent, Buerkle got 40 percent and Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum received 5 percent. Eleven percent of the likely voters surveyed said they were undecided.

Full story

July 24, 2012

California Poll: Julia Brownley Leads Tony Strickland in Open 26th

Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) led state Sen. Tony Strickland (R) in the race for the 26th district, according to a poll conducted for the Democrat’s campaign and obtained by Roll Call.

In a top pickup opportunity for Democrats, Brownley topped Strickland by 4 points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the competitive battle for this open, Ventura County-based seat. While Brownley’s lead was within the margin of error, Democrats view this poll as a good sign for her in what could be among the closest House races in California. Full story

Massachusetts: New Poll Shows Close Senate Race

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren remain locked in a statistical dead heat, according to a nonpartisan poll released today.

A MassINC Polling Group survey found if the election were held today, 38 percent of registered voters would cast their ballot for Brown, while 40 percent would cast their vote for Warren, a Harvard professor and consumer advocate. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Because this was a poll of registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, the undecided number is probably higher than the actual number of voters who haven’t yet made up their mind in the white-hot race which could decide control of the Senate. Full story

New York: Democratic Poll Has Tim Bishop Up Big

Rep. Tim Bishop faces a rematch with his 2010 opponent. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the Service Employees International Union found Rep. Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) in very comfortable shape four months before his rematch with businessman Randy Altschuler (R) in the Empire State’s 1st district.

In a horse-race matchup, Bishop led Altschuler 56 percent to 32 percent, with 12 percent of those polled undecided. The poll of likely voters, conducted by respected Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and obtained by Roll Call, also found Bishop with a relatively favorable image in the eastern Long Island district. Full story

July 23, 2012

California: DCCC Pushes Back With Poll in 47th District

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pushed back today against a poll conducted for Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong (R) that showed a close race with state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) for California’s Democratic-leaning 47th district. Full story

July 20, 2012

California: GOP Polls Find Competitive House Races

Polls conducted for two California Republicans found close races in Democratic-leaning districts that rank among the GOP’s targets for November.

According to memos released by their campaigns, former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) trailed Rep. Lois Capps (D) by 2 points in the 24th district, and Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong (R) trailed state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) by 3 points in the 47th district. Full story

July 19, 2012

Washington: Tight Race for Second in 1st District

Three Democrats are in a close battle for second place in the all-party primary for Washington’s 1st district, a poll released today found, with ballots hitting voters’ mailboxes by the end of this week.

Snohomish County Councilman John Koster, the lone Republican, took 36 percent in the poll conducted by Seattle-based consulting firm Strategies 360. Full story

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