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July 29, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

June 25, 2012

Missouri: John Brunner Poll Has Him Up Big

A poll released by Missouri Senate candidate John Brunner showed him up by 20 points over his competitors in the GOP primary.

In a horse race matchup among likely primary voters, Brunner led with 40 percent, followed by former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin with 20 percent each. Nineteen percent of respondents were undecided.

A spokesman for the Brunner campaign said it was a clean ballot test — that is, respondents weren’t given any additional information before being asked their candidate preference. Full story

June 22, 2012

Pollster Alan Secrest Going Out of Business

Updated 6:48 p.m. | A well-known Democratic pollster alerted his clients last week that he is going out of business — less than five months before Election Day.

“Our financial circumstances have left us no choice but to discontinue this work and close our business,” Alan Secrest wrote Thursday in an email to clients. “It has been our pleasure to serve you, and I wish we could continue. But we cannot.”

It’s highly unusual for a pollster from any party to close down shop, especially so close to an election. During the course of his decades-long career, Secrest’s clients included Democrats from all ends of the ideological spectrum, including hundreds of Congressional races around the country.

Offering his apologies, Secrest explained that he cannot offer refunds to his current clients.

“All remaining funds have gone to taxes, salaries, bills and there are simply no assets available with which to continue to operate,” he said. “Certainly this is not the path we would have chosen, but that is the most straight forward assessment of our circumstance.”

Full story

June 21, 2012

Florida: Bill Nelson Up in New Poll

In a new poll, two-term Sen. Bill Nelson led likely GOP nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV by 4 points in a Florida Senate matchup.

Nelson topped Mack 43 percent to 39 percent in the poll of registered — not likely — Florida voters. Nelson led among independent voters by 11 points, 44 percent to 33 percent.

Forty-four percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Nelson and 26 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Full story

June 20, 2012

Wisconsin Senate Poll: Tommy Thompson Leads in Republican Primary

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson led his closest competitor in the Republican Senate primary by a margin of almost 20 points in a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey, one of the first in the state since the widely followed gubernatorial recall election earlier this month, also showed Thompson ahead of presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin by 8 points.

Thompson, who was elected four times as the state’s governor, took 34 percent in a test of the GOP primary, according to the survey. The remainder of the GOP field were closely split, with former Rep. Mark Neumann, businessman Eric Hovde and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald taking 16 percent, 14 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Twenty-five percent of the likely voters polled were undecided. Full story

Pennsylvania: Internal Critz Poll Shows 10-Point Lead

Pennsylvania: Internal Critz Poll Shows 10 Point Lead

Rep. Mark Critz is one of the most vulnerable House Members this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) released an internal poll today showing him with a 10-point advantage over his Republican opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus.

Crits led Rothfus 46 percent to 36 percent in the survey paid for by the Congressman’s campaign and released to reporters.

Full story

Hawaii: Dueling Polls in Open 2nd District Democratic Primary

Hours after an independent poll showed a tied race in the open 2nd district Democratic primary, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann released an internal poll that found him continuing to hold a double-digit lead over Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard.

Hannemann led in his survey with 42 percent, followed by Gabbard with 26 percent and former state Rep. Bob Marx with 8 percent. None of the other candidates received more than 2 percent, and 17 percent of those polled remained undecided.

The Hannemann poll, conducted June 14-16 by QMark Research, included 407 registered voters and had a 4.9-point margin of error. Full story

June 19, 2012

Nebraska: Deb Fischer Has Wide Lead Over Bob Kerrey in Internal GOP Poll

Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R) campaign released an internal poll today that showed her ahead of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) by a large margin in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

The poll showed Fischer at 58 percent while Kerrey garnered 33 percent.

A source from the Kerrey campaign told Roll Call that other private polling shows a much tighter race, and the source stressed that Fischer is widely unknown in the state.

Full story

June 18, 2012

Maine: Angus King Way Up in New Poll

Former Maine Gov. Angus King (I) topped a Pine Tree State Senate horserace matchup in a new poll released today.

In a survey of likely voters, King received 50 percent, GOP nominee Charlie Summers got 23 percent and Democratic nominee Cynthia Dill picked up just 9 percent. Seventeen percent of those polled didn’t know or were undecided.

King, elected to his first of two consecutive terms as governor in 1994, is highly regarded. A whopping 60 percent had a favorable impression of him while 21 percent had an unfavorable impression of him. Thirteen percent of those polled were undecided, and only 5 percent said they had never heard of him.

Full story

June 14, 2012

Wisconsin: Poll Shows Tommy Thompson Ahead of Tammy Baldwin

Updated 6:30 p.m. | Wisconsin Senate candidate and former Gov. Tommy Thompson led presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), according to a new poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, a firm whose polling methods and accuracy are considered somewhat controversial.

The poll found that if the election were held today, 52 percent of respondents would support Thompson, the perceived frontrunner in the Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat. Only 36 percent said they would vote for Baldwin.

Though insiders widely consider Thompson the GOP frontrunner, he faces tough primary competition from three other candidates: state Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, former Rep. Mark Neumann and businessman Eric Hovde. Full story

June 11, 2012

North Dakota: New Poll Shows Kevin Cramer Surge for House Seat

Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (R) could upset his party-backed opponent in the Tuesday primary for North Dakota’s open at-large seat, a new poll suggested.

Cramer led fellow Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, 60 percent to 21 percent with 19 percent undecided, in a Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the local Valley News Live/KFYR-TV. The poll surveyed 625 likely voters from June 4 to 6. It had a margin of error of 4 percent.

A Cramer victory would make history in North Dakota GOP politics. It’s rare for anyone to mount a significant challenge against the GOP’s endorsed candidate in a primary — let alone win the GOP nod.

Full story

June 9, 2012

The 2012 Campaign Through the Eyes of ‘Walmart Moms’

Forget Seamus, the Ryan budget or even the “War on Women.” Undecided female voters didn’t even mention some of the 2012 cycle’s most-hyped news topics in a pair of  focus groups on Wednesday evening.

Walmart sponsored the 90-minute focus groups, which were organized by a bipartisan team of pollsters: Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis and Alex Bratty of Public Opinion Strategies. Moderators questioned two groups of “Walmart Moms” — self-described undecided voters who shop at the store at least one a month — in Richmond, Va., and Las Vegas.

It’s a surprisingly rare opportunity for inside-the-Beltway reporters to hear out undecided female voters at length. Even on the campaign trail, interviews often last a few minutes with the most quotable participants. Nonetheless, these women are exactly the fought-over voters for whom campaigns clamor in the final weeks of an election.

Full story

June 7, 2012

North Dakota: Senate Poll Shows Dead Heat

A new independent poll shows freshman Rep. Rick Berg (R) and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) in a virtual tie for the open North Dakota Senate seat.

Heitkamp leads Berg, 47 percent to 46 percent, according to a survey conducted by the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for KVLY and KFYR television stations. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided in the poll.

The survey comes as good news to Democrats, who hope to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Kent Conrad seat as part of their larger effort to maintain control of the Senate. The results are yet another sign that the race is competitive, although Roll Call continues to rate it as Leans Republican. Full story

June 6, 2012

Pennsylvania: New Poll Gives Bob Casey Double Digit Lead

Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) held a commanding lead over Republican Tom Smith in a new poll released by Franklin & Marshall College today.

The poll, which surveyed 412 registered voters from May 29 to June 4, showed Casey leading Smith 42 percent to 21 percent. More than a third of voters said they still remain undecided.

Nearly 30 percent of those surveyed said they did not know enough about Casey to have an opinion about him, despite serving five years in the Senate and coming from a family that has been prominent in Pennsylvania politics for decades.

Smith — a former executive at a coal company — spent more than $3 million of his own money to win the Republican primary in April over the candidate endorsed by the state party. The poll suggested that Smith’s name recognition remains low across the state. More than 75 percent of poll respondents said they did not know enough about him to view him favorably or unfavorably.

Roll Call rates the Pennsylvania Senate race as Likely Democratic.

The poll also gives President Barack Obama a healthy lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Obama would win Pennsylvania 48 percent to 36 percent if the election were held today, the poll found.

Connecticut: Christopher Murphy, Linda McMahon Close in Senate Poll

Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon and Rep. Christopher Murphy (D) could see a tough general election fight to replace retiring Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I), according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

In a test of a November matchup between the two, Murphy took 46 percent to McMahon’s 43 percent, a result within the poll’s 2.6-point margin of error.

Full story

June 2, 2012

Massachusetts: New Polls Show Senate Race a Dead Heat

Two new polls showed the white-hot Massachusetts Senate race between GOP Sen. Scott Brown and Democratic Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren to be neck-and-neck. The race remains essentially tied despite weeks of controversy surrounding Warren’s intermittent claims during her professional career that she is of Native American heritage.

A Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll of likely voters found Brown getting 39 percent to Warren’s 37 percent in a matchup. Twenty-three percent of those surveyed were undecided.

A Springfield Republican newspaper/Western New England University Polling Institute poll of registered voters found Brown getting 43 percent to Warren’s 45 percent. Eleven percent of those surveyed were undecided. Full story

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