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Posts in "Polling"
June 26, 2012
A newly released Democratic poll shows Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) could face a competitive race in November, although there is little other evidence at this point that she is in danger.
Bachmann led businessman Jim Graves (D) 48 percent to 43 percent, according to a survey paid for by the likely Democratic Farmer Labor nominee’s campaign. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.
The survey marks the first public indication that the 6th district race could be competitive. Democrats unsuccessfully targeted Bachmann in the 2008 cycle, but they argue the Congresswoman is more vulnerable than ever following her failed presidential bid. Full story
Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson led his Republican opponent by 15 points in an independent poll released over the weekend.
The vulnerable incumbent, running in new territory thanks to redistricting, is facing Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, for whom national Republicans have high hopes. The new poll showed Love has a name recognition gap to overcome before November, but that margin is likely to close by then in this Republican-leaning district.
In the Deseret News/KSL-TV poll, Matheson took 53 percent to Love’s 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The survey of 379 registered voters in the 4th district was taken June 15-21 and had a 5.1-point margin of error.
June 25, 2012
Updated 5:33 p.m. | A new Democratic poll of Michigan’s 1st district showed former state Rep. Gary McDowell (D) within 2 points of freshman Rep. Dan Benishek (R).
Benishek barely leads McDowell, 40 percent to 38 percent, with 22 percent of respondents undecided, according to a survey paid for by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and released to Roll Call.
The poll is the most recent indication Democrats can compete in the northern Michigan House district this cycle. It’s one of the must-win seats for House Democrats if they want to make inroads into the GOP’s 25-seat majority this November. Full story
A poll released by Missouri Senate candidate John Brunner showed him up by 20 points over his competitors in the GOP primary.
In a horse race matchup among likely primary voters, Brunner led with 40 percent, followed by former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin with 20 percent each. Nineteen percent of respondents were undecided.
A spokesman for the Brunner campaign said it was a clean ballot test — that is, respondents weren’t given any additional information before being asked their candidate preference. Full story
June 22, 2012
Updated 6:48 p.m. | A well-known Democratic pollster alerted his clients last week that he is going out of business — less than five months before Election Day.
“Our financial circumstances have left us no choice but to discontinue this work and close our business,” Alan Secrest wrote Thursday in an email to clients. “It has been our pleasure to serve you, and I wish we could continue. But we cannot.”
It’s highly unusual for a pollster from any party to close down shop, especially so close to an election. During the course of his decades-long career, Secrest’s clients included Democrats from all ends of the ideological spectrum, including hundreds of Congressional races around the country.
Offering his apologies, Secrest explained that he cannot offer refunds to his current clients.
“All remaining funds have gone to taxes, salaries, bills and there are simply no assets available with which to continue to operate,” he said. “Certainly this is not the path we would have chosen, but that is the most straight forward assessment of our circumstance.”
June 21, 2012
In a new poll, two-term Sen. Bill Nelson led likely GOP nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV by 4 points in a Florida Senate matchup.
Nelson topped Mack 43 percent to 39 percent in the poll of registered — not likely — Florida voters. Nelson led among independent voters by 11 points, 44 percent to 33 percent.
Forty-four percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Nelson and 26 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Full story
June 20, 2012
Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson led his closest competitor in the Republican Senate primary by a margin of almost 20 points in a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey, one of the first in the state since the widely followed gubernatorial recall election earlier this month, also showed Thompson ahead of presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin by 8 points.
Thompson, who was elected four times as the state’s governor, took 34 percent in a test of the GOP primary, according to the survey. The remainder of the GOP field were closely split, with former Rep. Mark Neumann, businessman Eric Hovde and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald taking 16 percent, 14 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Twenty-five percent of the likely voters polled were undecided. Full story
Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) released an internal poll today showing him with a 10-point advantage over his Republican opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus.
Crits led Rothfus 46 percent to 36 percent in the survey paid for by the Congressman’s campaign and released to reporters.
Hours after an independent poll showed a tied race in the open 2nd district Democratic primary, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann released an internal poll that found him continuing to hold a double-digit lead over Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard.
Hannemann led in his survey with 42 percent, followed by Gabbard with 26 percent and former state Rep. Bob Marx with 8 percent. None of the other candidates received more than 2 percent, and 17 percent of those polled remained undecided.
The Hannemann poll, conducted June 14-16 by QMark Research, included 407 registered voters and had a 4.9-point margin of error. Full story
June 19, 2012
Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R) campaign released an internal poll today that showed her ahead of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) by a large margin in the race to replace retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D).
The poll showed Fischer at 58 percent while Kerrey garnered 33 percent.
A source from the Kerrey campaign told Roll Call that other private polling shows a much tighter race, and the source stressed that Fischer is widely unknown in the state.
June 18, 2012
Former Maine Gov. Angus King (I) topped a Pine Tree State Senate horserace matchup in a new poll released today.
In a survey of likely voters, King received 50 percent, GOP nominee Charlie Summers got 23 percent and Democratic nominee Cynthia Dill picked up just 9 percent. Seventeen percent of those polled didn’t know or were undecided.
King, elected to his first of two consecutive terms as governor in 1994, is highly regarded. A whopping 60 percent had a favorable impression of him while 21 percent had an unfavorable impression of him. Thirteen percent of those polled were undecided, and only 5 percent said they had never heard of him.
June 14, 2012
Updated 6:30 p.m. | Wisconsin Senate candidate and former Gov. Tommy Thompson led presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), according to a new poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, a firm whose polling methods and accuracy are considered somewhat controversial.
The poll found that if the election were held today, 52 percent of respondents would support Thompson, the perceived frontrunner in the Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat. Only 36 percent said they would vote for Baldwin.
Though insiders widely consider Thompson the GOP frontrunner, he faces tough primary competition from three other candidates: state Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, former Rep. Mark Neumann and businessman Eric Hovde. Full story
June 11, 2012
Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (R) could upset his party-backed opponent in the Tuesday primary for North Dakota’s open at-large seat, a new poll suggested.
Cramer led fellow Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, 60 percent to 21 percent with 19 percent undecided, in a Mason-Dixon poll sponsored by the local Valley News Live/KFYR-TV. The poll surveyed 625 likely voters from June 4 to 6. It had a margin of error of 4 percent.
A Cramer victory would make history in North Dakota GOP politics. It’s rare for anyone to mount a significant challenge against the GOP’s endorsed candidate in a primary — let alone win the GOP nod.
June 9, 2012
Forget Seamus, the Ryan budget or even the “War on Women.” Undecided female voters didn’t even mention some of the 2012 cycle’s most-hyped news topics in a pair of focus groups on Wednesday evening.
Walmart sponsored the 90-minute focus groups, which were organized by a bipartisan team of pollsters: Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis and Alex Bratty of Public Opinion Strategies. Moderators questioned two groups of “Walmart Moms” — self-described undecided voters who shop at the store at least one a month — in Richmond, Va., and Las Vegas.
It’s a surprisingly rare opportunity for inside-the-Beltway reporters to hear out undecided female voters at length. Even on the campaign trail, interviews often last a few minutes with the most quotable participants. Nonetheless, these women are exactly the fought-over voters for whom campaigns clamor in the final weeks of an election.
June 7, 2012
A new independent poll shows freshman Rep. Rick Berg (R) and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) in a virtual tie for the open North Dakota Senate seat.
Heitkamp leads Berg, 47 percent to 46 percent, according to a survey conducted by the Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for KVLY and KFYR television stations. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided in the poll.
The survey comes as good news to Democrats, who hope to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Kent Conrad seat as part of their larger effort to maintain control of the Senate. The results are yet another sign that the race is competitive, although Roll Call continues to rate it as Leans Republican. Full story