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July 29, 2015

Posts in "Polling"

October 6, 2014

Democratic Pollster Sees the Light in Senate Battleground States

Democratic Poll

Hagan and Udall face close re-election races this fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll suggests Democrats in 12 Senate battleground states have made significant gains with their messaging to key demographics, putting the races at a “tipping point” where the opinion of women — specifically unmarried women — may provide the path for Democrats to maintain their hold on the Senate this November.

“Every single metric that I look at has moved or edged towards Democrats,” Stan Greenberg, the co-founder of Democracy Corps and a Democratic pollster, said. “I cannot find anything that has moved in the other direction.” Full story

By Clark Mindock Posted at 6:59 p.m.
Polling

Dueling Polls Released in Battleground House Race (Updated)

Southerland is a Florida Republican. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 12:07 p.m. | A new internal GOP poll showed Rep. Steve Southerland II had a six-point lead last week over his Democratic rival, attorney Gwen Graham.

Southerland had the support of 45 percent of respondents, while Graham had the backing of 39 percent, according to the congressman’s campaign polling memo, a copy of which was obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The pair are locked in a heated battle for Florida’s 2nd District, based in the Panhandle area.

Full story

October 1, 2014

Top New Jersey House Race a Dead Heat in Democratic Poll

house races

Runyan's, left, decision to step down created a competitive open-seat race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The Democratic nominee in one of the party’s targeted House races in New Jersey is running even with her Republican opponent, according to an internal Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll obtained by CQ Roll Call.

Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard led Republican insurance company owner Tom MacArthur, 43 percent to 42 percent. The automated poll found 15 percent of voters remain undecided with a little more than a month to go until Election Day.

The survey of 603 likely voters was conducted Sept. 27-28 and had a 4-point margin of error.

Full story

September 29, 2014

Collin Peterson Campaign Responds to GOP Poll

collin peterson

Peterson's race is rated Leans Democratic. (Scott J. Ferrell/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

In response to a poll released last week by Republicans showing a tight race, Minnesota Rep. Collin C. Peterson’s campaign on Monday released a poll of its own from early September that had found the incumbent with a wider lead.

The three-week-old survey, shared first with CQ Roll Call, showed the Democratic incumbent up 53 percent to 29 percent over state Sen. Torrey Westrom. Westrom’s poll, conducted Sept. 21-23 by the Tarrance Group, found Peterson with a 5-point lead.

The Peterson poll also showed the incumbent with a 58 percent favorable rating, with just 19 percent viewing him unfavorably. That survey of 405 likely voters was conducted by Global Strategy Group from Sept. 4-7 with a 4.9-point margin of error. Full story

September 26, 2014

Internal Poll: Democrat Holds Slight Lead in Arkansas

midterms

Hays is a Democrat from Arkansas. (Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new campaign poll from Democrat Patrick Henry Hays showed him ahead of his Republican opponent by 3 points in one of his party’s top House targets in Arkansas.

Hays, the former mayor of North Little Rock, had a small lead over banker French Hill, 44 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and paid for by Hays. That’s within the poll’s 4.8 percent margin of error.

Hays and Hill are vying for Arkansas’ 2nd District, an open-seat race because GOP Rep. Tim Griffin is leaving Congress to run for lieutenant governor. The district voted for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by a 12-point margin last cycle, and the race is rated a Leans Republican contest by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

Full story

September 22, 2014

Internal Poll: Democrat Holds Slight Lead in California House Contest

ami bera race

Bera is a freshman Democrat from California. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Photo)

A new Democratic poll showed freshman Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., with a slim lead over former Rep. Doug Ose, R-Calif., in the race for his Sacramento-based district.

In a survey conducted for House Majority PAC and provided first to CQ Roll Call, Bera leads Ose, 47 percent to 43 percent. The Democrat’s advantage was just inside the poll’s margin of error of 4.7 points. 

The two pols are facing off in competitive 7th District, which President Barack Obama carried by just 4 points in 2012. The contest is rated Leans Democratic by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

Full story

Poll: Davis Holds Large Lead in Top Illinois Contest

Davis greets Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka at Republican Day during the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., a top Democratic target this cycle, had a 19-point lead over his opponent with six weeks to go until Election Day, according to a poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Davis led Democratic rival Ann Callis, 55 percent to 36 percent, in the survey of the 13th District conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided.

Full story

September 15, 2014

Democratic Poll Shows Dead Heat in New Jersey Race

house race polls

MacArthur is running for the House in southern New Jersey. (Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll shows a dead heat in a competitive New Jersey House race.

In the survey, obtained first by CQ Roll Call, insurance company owner Tom MacArthur, the Republican nominee, leads the Democrat, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, 46 percent to 43 percent. The results are within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.

New Jersey’s 3rd District is open this cycle because GOP Rep. Jon Runyan is retiring. The district, which starts in the Philadelphia suburbs and runs east to the Garden State’s coastline, picked President Barack Obama by a 5-point margin in 2012.

But the president’s unpopularity has shifted the national political climate to increasingly favor the GOP in the midterms. Full story

Kay Hagan Holds Small Lead in New Poll

north carolina senate race

Hagan is a North Carolina Democrat. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll showed Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, holding a small lead over Republican Thom Tillis in the contested North Carolina Senate race.

The Elon University poll found Hagan ahead of Tillis, 44 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. The margin of error for the poll is 3.91 points.

Republicans must pick up a net of six seats to gain control of the Senate, and the Tar Heel Senate race is one of their top targets in the midterms. Hagan has held a narrow edge in most polls over the past two months.

September 12, 2014

Polls Show Two Democrats Trailing in New York

house race polling

A new poll showed Gibson ahead of his Democratic challenger. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Two new polls showed a duo of House Democrats trailing in competitive races in upstate New York.

In the Empire State’s 19th District, GOP Rep. Chris Gibson leads his Democratic challenger, venture capitalist Sean Eldridge, by 24 points, according to a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll released Thursday.

North in the 21st District, a similar survey from WWNY-7 News/Siena College showed Republican Elise Stefanik leading Democrat Aaron Woolf by 13 points. Woolf and Stefanik are competing to succeed Rep. Bill Owens, D-N.Y., who is retiring.  Full story

September 10, 2014

Iowa Poll: Democrat Leads in Top House Contest

iowa poll

Young is a Republican running in Iowa. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

A new poll found former state Sen. Staci Appel, a Democrat, with a 6-point lead over GOP nominee David Young in a top-target House contest in Iowa.

Appel leads Young, 40 percent to 34 percent, just outside the poll’s margin of error, with 24 percent of voters undecided, according to the independent survey conducted by Loras College and released on Wednesday. Full story

September 8, 2014

Democrat Leads in New Iowa Senate Race Poll

iowa senate race poll

Braley is an Iowa Democrat. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll shows Rep. Bruce Braley, a Democrat, has opened up a lead over his Republican opponent Joni Ernst in the battle for Iowa’s open Senate seat.

The Loras College poll of likely voters found Braley at 45.3 percent and Ernst at 40.5 percent. Just over 14 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The race for retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin’s seat is one of the most hotly contested in the country, and the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rates it as a Tossup. Senate Republicans must pick up a net of six seats this November to win control of that chamber, and Iowa plays a prominent part in the GOP’s math to accomplish that.

Full story

August 20, 2014

Iowa Poll Shows Democrat With Big Edge in Open House Contest

State Rep. Pat Murphy, the Democratic nominee in the open-seat House contest to replace Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Bruce Braley, had an 11 point lead over his Republican opponent, according to a poll obtained by CQ Roll Call.

Murphy led businessman Rod Blum 51 percent to 40 percent according to the poll conducted by Myers Research and Strategic Services for Murphy’s campaign. The lead was outside the 4.9 percent margin of error.

Full story

July 30, 2014

Lamar Alexander Still Up Big in Internal Primary Poll

Alexander's internal polling shows him with a strong primary lead. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A fresh poll conducted for Sen. Lamar Alexander’s campaign found he continues to hold a comfortable lead with just more than a week to go in the Tennessee Republican primary.

Alexander took 53 percent in the poll, according to a memo the Alexander campaign provided at CQ Roll Call’s request. State Rep. Joe Carr, Alexander’s most prominent challenger, took 24 percent, followed by physician George Flinn with 5 percent. The four other candidates in the race took 1 percent or less. Full story

Mark Pryor Up 2 Points in Democratic Poll

Pryor is in a dead-heat re-election race. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor led his Republican challenger by 2 points in a recent Democratic poll, which is the third survey on the race released in the last two days.

The polling memo, obtained by CQ Roll Call, stated Pryor led by a 48-46 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided — a lead within the 4-point margin of error. The survey included a sample of 600 likely voters and was conducted July 20-24 by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, which counts as a client the Arkansas gubernatorial campaign of former Rep. Mike Ross.

The memo comes one day after the Pryor campaign released an internal poll (taken July 7-10) showing him ahead 45-39 percent and an independent poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College (taken July 22-25) found Cotton up 44-42 percent. Full story

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