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September 18, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

May 22, 2014

Internal Poll: GOP Challenger Up In Targeted Illinois Race

GOP state Rep. Mike Bost had a 6-point lead on freshman Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart in a targeted Illinois House race, according to an internal poll conducted for Bost’s campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Bost garnered 43 percent to Enyart’s 37 percent, according to the poll, conducted by GOP polling firm The Tarrance Group.

The poll also found Enyart was not well established in his Illinois’ 12th District one year and five months into his term. Only 27 percent of voters approved of the job Enyart is doing, with half telling pollsters they were ready for new leadership in Congress.

Full story

May 15, 2014

Tea Party Candidate Lags in New Jersey Primary Poll

The New Jersey Republican-machine-backed candidate in an open-seat primary led a prominent tea party candidate by 11 points in a Monmouth University Poll released Thursday.

In the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jon Runyan, former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur, who is backed by the county establishments of New Jersey’s 3rd District, had the support of 46 percent of likely primary voters, while 35 percent backed tea party favorite and ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the party’s nominee in last year’s Senate special election. Twenty percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The outcome of the June 3 primary is highly consequential to the general. Most New Jersey and national Republican operatives are aiming for a MacArthur victory, fearing that a tea party candidate could lose the seat to Democrats. The Democratic candidate, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, is a safe bet to win her party’s nomination, and at this point the race is rated a Tossup by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call. Full story

May 14, 2014

For Democrats, It’s Déjà Vu in California’s 31st District

Democrats may have reason for concern about a replay from 2012, when the party fumbled a sure pickup opportunity in Southern California thanks to the state’s new top-two primary.

According to a poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and obtained by CQ Roll Call, former Democratic Rep. Joe Baca, who has raised little money and is not backed by the national party, is gaining on the two Democratic front-runners in the 31st District open-seat race. With a 5-point rise since last month, Baca is now tied for third with attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, behind Republican businessman Paul Chabot and Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, who is backed by the DCCC.

Chabot led the primary field among likely voters with 23 percent, followed by Aguilar with 15 percent, and Reyes and Baca with 13 percent apiece. Should the three top Democrats splinter the vote nearly evenly in the primary, there is a possibility one of the other Republicans finishes second — again.

“This dynamic leaves the door open for a scenario in which two Republicans clear the primary and Democrats are shut out of the general election, as they were in 2012,” pollsters for California-based Tulchin Research wrote in a memo.

The pollsters found Baca was unlikely to finish in the top two, but “this development has further diluted the Democratic vote…”

Full story

May 13, 2014

Cotton Internal Poll Finds Senate Race in Dead Heat

Cotton Internal Poll Finds Senate Race in Dead Heat

Cotton is challenging Mark Pryor in a top Senate race. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Arkansas Rep. Tom Cotton’s Senate campaign is pushing back on recent polls showing the Republican trailing Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.

In an internal poll conducted for Cotton by OnMessage Inc., Cotton and Pryor are in a dead heat. It found the freshman lawmaker taking 42 percent of the vote to Pryor’s 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Full story

May 12, 2014

Tea Party Candidate Hammers Boehner Ally on ‘Amnesty’

Tea Party Candidate Hammers Boehner Ally on Amnesty

Smith is challenging Rep. Mike Simpson in the May 20 primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Two weeks from the primary, the tea party rival to Idaho Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is up with a new TV ad accusing the eight-term incumbent of supporting “amnesty.”

“Why are the Washington, D.C., special interests spending millions to prop up Mike Simpson?” a female narrator asks in attorney Bryan Smith’s ad. “Because he supports a scheme to give amnesty to illegal aliens.”

 

Full story

May 9, 2014

Sasse Launches Closing Argument TV Ad

Sasse Launches Closing Argument TV Ad

Sasse is airing his final TV ad before Tuesday's primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ben Sasse’s final TV ad ahead of Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary in Nebraska touts his big-name endorsements, his opposition to the Affordable Care Act and his campaign’s decision not to run negative advertising.

The spot lands amid a crush of ads run by outside groups backing Sasse and one of his opponents, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, in the final week before the May 13 primary.

Sasse’s spot is running statewide on broadcast and cable, part of a 1,500-point buy for the final week of the campaign, according to a campaign spokesman. Full story

May 1, 2014

Jack Kingston Poll Finds Him Ahead in Georgia Senate Primary

Jack Kingston Poll Finds Him Ahead in Georgia Senate Primary

Kingston speaks at an April 19 debate in Augusta, Ga. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

With less than three weeks until Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., released an internal poll Thursday that found him leading the crowded field.

Kingston led with 20 percent, followed by former Dollar General and Reebok CEO David Perdue with 17 percent, former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel with 14 percent, Rep. Phil Gingrey with 13 percent and Rep. Paul Broun with 8 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters were undecided.

The primary is essentially a race to finish in the top two. If no candidate receives a majority of the primary vote, the two leading vote recipients will advance to a July 22 runoff. The winner is expected to face former Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn in the general election for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Full story

April 29, 2014

Poll: Majority of Younger Voters Not Planning to Turn Up for Midterms

Candidates running for office in this year’s midterm elections should expect little help from younger voters, most of whom, according to a poll released Tuesday, are unlikely to go to the polls in November.

The Harvard Institute of Politics poll of millenials found that just 23 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds say they will definitely vote in November. That number has fallen 11 percent just since last November, when 34 percent said they planned to vote in the 2014 midterms.

In February of 2010, before the last midterm election, 31 percent said they would definitely be voting.

Pollster John Della Volpe attributed the disinterest to a “decrease in trust” in government institutions and an “increase in cynicism.” Younger voters, he said, “need to feel like they’re making a difference,” a feeling that voting in elections does not necessarily provide. He noted as well that voting is often logistically difficult on college campuses. Full story

April 28, 2014

Internal Poll: Doug Ose Leads GOP Pack in California Primary

Former Rep. Doug Ose led his fellow Republicans in a targeted California House race by a wide margin, according to a poll conducted for Ose’s campaign.

Ose took 24 percent in the poll, while his two GOP opponents in the June 3 top-two primary for California’s 7th District didn’t crack double digits. Among the other two Republicans, former Capitol Hill aide Igor Birman took 8 percent and nonprofit executive Elizabeth Emken was supported by 6 percent of the poll’s respondents.

The trio is running for the chance to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ami Bera in this competitive district, located in the Sacramento-area. Not surprisingly, Bera, who is a near lock to advance beyond the primary, led all challengers with 43 percent.

Full story

Internal Poll: N.C. Republican Close to Avoiding Runoff

Rockingham District Attorney Phil Berger Jr. is just a few points shy of avoiding a runoff in a competitive GOP primary for an open House seat in North Carolina, according to an internal poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

According to the poll, Berger led the GOP field with 36 percent in the 6th District. A candidate must get 40 percent of the vote in the May 6 primary to avoid a runoff in the Tar Heel State.

Full story

April 24, 2014

GOP Internal Poll: McSally, Barber Are Deadlocked

GOP Internal Poll: McSally, Barber Are Deadlocked

McSally is challenging Barber again in Arizona. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll conducted for the campaign of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally found the Arizona Republican had a slight, within-the-margin-of-error lead over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber.

McSally led 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 points in the OnMessage Inc. poll obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The pair are locked in a rematch of 2012, when Barber narrowly defeated McSally, and they are likely to stay close in the polls heading into November in this swing district. Full story

Poll: Colorado Senate Race Virtually Tied

Poll: Colorado Senate Race Virtually Tied

Gardner is running for Senate. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed a virtually tied race for Senate in Colorado.

Democratic Sen. Mark Udall led his GOP challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, by a single point  — 45 percent to 44 percent — in the survey. That split was within the poll’s margin of error of 2.7 points.

This survey was the first independent, live-interview poll conducted in the race since Gardner announced his candidacy in March. Until then, Udall had not attracted any top-tier opposition, but Gardner’s entrance into the race immediately made the contest more competitive.

Full story

April 22, 2014

Internal Poll: GOP Primary Wide Open in Alabama Race

A new internal poll shows the crowded primary in Alabama’s open 6th District is wide open less than two months before the primary, according to information provided first to CQ Roll Call.

The poll, conducted for GOP surgeon Chad Mathis’ campaign, found two of the six candidates in a statistical dead heat, with the third- and fourth-place contenders not far behind, and a large portion of respondents remain undecided. Full story

April 3, 2014

Internal Poll: Tierney Holds Wide Lead in Democratic Primary

Internal Poll: Tierney Holds Wide Lead in Democratic Primary

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

National Democrats say Massachusetts Rep. John F. Tierney is not facing a Democratic primary challenge nearly as competitive as some in the party had feared.

In an automated poll released Thursday by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Tierney led veteran Seth Moulton 64 percent to 17 percent, with 20 percent undecided. The wide lead is largely a testament to Tierney’s familiarity with voters in Massachusetts’ 6th District, which he has represented for nine terms, and illustrates that Moulton remains unknown.

“In sum, Tierney’s commanding lead, combined with his strong, positive profile, signify that he is the clear choice among likely primary voters” in the district, Christina Coloroso, the DCCC’s targeting and analytics director, said in a polling memo obtained by CQ Roll Call. Full story

February 26, 2014

Poll: Lindsey Graham Close to Avoiding Runoff

South Carolina Republican primary voters don’t think the country is on the right track, but they’re not yet blaming Sen. Lindsey Graham.

The two-term incumbent, who faces a handful of GOP primary challengers, led a Winthrop University poll released Wednesday with 45 percent of the vote. Graham needs more than 50 percent of the vote in the June 10 primary to escape a runoff, but none of Graham’s challengers made it out of single-digit support, while 35 percent remained undecided.

Graham kicked off his TV advertising campaign two weeks ago, highlighting his efforts to fight the Obama administration on health care and Benghazi.

That plays well in a state where just 3 percent of GOP primary voters said they think the country is on the right track and 90 percent disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. Full story

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