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February 13, 2016

Posts in "Polling"

October 5, 2015

Democrats Still Seek Strong Challenger to Burr in North Carolina

At least one Democrat has entered the race against Burr, but there will be more to follow. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

At least one Democrat has entered the race against Burr, but there will be more to follow. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

With the Democratic primary in North Carolina less than six months away, the party still isn’t united behind a candidate to try to knock off GOP Sen. Richard Burr. And some Democrats are concerned that time is running out.

“I don’t see Burr as being vulnerable in the state, six months before my primary, 60 days before my filing deadline,” North Carolina Democratic consultant Brad Crone said.

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September 23, 2015

GOP Poll: Comstock in Strong Position for Re-Election

Polling shows Comstock is in good position for re-election in Virginia's 10th District. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Polling shows Comstock is in good position for re-election in Virginia’s 10th District. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Freshman Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., holds a strong lead against a generic Democratic opponent, according to polling by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Comstock — who does not yet have a Democratic opponent as none have announced bids in this northern Virginia district — leads a generic Democrat 49-36 percent, according to the NRCC’s poll.

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September 17, 2015

Poll: Democrats Lead in Illinois, Wisconsin Senate Races

Kirk trails his Democratic opponent in Illinois. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Kirk trails his Democratic opponent in Illinois. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

GOP Sens. Mark S. Kirk of Illinois and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin both trail their likely Democratic opponents a little more than a year out from Election Day, according to polling conducted for End Citizens United PAC.

Kirk trails Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, 41-45 percent, while Johnson trails his likely Democratic opponent, former Sen. Russ Feingold, 39-47 percent, according to the poll.

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September 16, 2015

Predictive Markets Still Bullish on Bush

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Despite lower poll numbers, Bush holds a significant lead in predictive markets. (Scott Olson/Getty Images File Photo)

Seasoned political operatives are dismayed at Donald Trump’s staying power in the Republican presidential primary.

But for those Republicans waiting for Trump’s surge to crest and more establishment candidates to rise to challenge him, there’s reason not to dump their Jeb Bush stock.

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September 10, 2015

Donald Trump Vs. the 11 Commandments of Presidential Politics

Donald Trump has defied the rules of engagement observed by generations of presidential aspirants, voicing opinions, waging battles and forming alliances that have sunk other candidates.

Here are all the ways he’s defied the rules of political gravity. Full story

August 31, 2015

Internal Poll Shows Cresent Hardy Leading Potential Challengers

Hardy is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Hardy is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Cresent Hardy, R-Nev., leads all four of the potential Democratic opponents in head-to-head matchups for his 4th District seat, an internal poll conducted for his campaign and obtained by CQ Roll Call shows.

Hardy — who is arguably the most vulnerable House Republican in 2016 — has the slimmest lead over former state Assemblywoman Lucy Flores.

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August 28, 2015

Drowning in Weak Polling, How Long Can Lindsey Graham Stay in 2016 Race?

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s presidential campaign has had a tough time getting traction so far, and a new Quinnipiac University poll keeps him in the conversation about who might be the first of the 17 Republican presidential candidates to fold.

But do his low poll numbers suggest the end is near?

Full story

August 20, 2015

Poll: House Incumbents Who Oppose LGBT Rights Lose Support

Democrats want to target Garrett for his opposition to LGBT rights. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democrats want to target Garrett for his opposition to LGBT rights. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A set of polls conducted for the Human Rights Campaign found incumbents would imperil their re-election chances if they oppose a bill that bans discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender individuals.

The polling, shared first with CQ Roll Call, found that in six districts held by Republicans, voters would be less likely to support the GOP incumbent if they opposed the Equality Act. A seventh poll conducted in a competitive seat held by a Democrat found the same result. The Equality Act is a bill introduced in July that would “extend existing non-discrimination laws to protect [LGBT] people.”

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August 14, 2015

Democrats Courting ‘Gold Standard’ to Unseat Young in Iowa (Updated)

Democrats want to wait for the strongest candidate to challenge Young. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photos)

Democrats want to wait for the strongest candidate to challenge Young. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photos)

Updated Aug. 17, 11:11 a.m. | Democrats are getting a candidate in Iowa’s only tossup congressional election — just not the one they’re ready for.

Iraq War veteran Jim Mowrer announced Monday he’s challenging freshman Rep. David Young in the 3rd District.

Full story

August 10, 2015

Planned Parenthood Says Shutdown Would Hurt GOP Senators

Planned Parenthood funding could be an issue in next year's competitive Senate races. (File Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Planned Parenthood funding could be an issue in next year’s competitive Senate races. (File Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

UPDATE: 3:56 p.m. | If Republicans in targeted Senate races like those in New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania vote to defund Planned Parenthood after its recent controversies, polling released by the group claims they could face political backlash of their own.

On Monday, the Planned Parenthood Action Fund unveiled the results of a set of polls conducted last week by Hart Research Associates, which found that nearly two-thirds of likely voters in all three states still support the group — even after an anti-abortion group released videos that appear to show officials from the group speaking callously about the sale and harvesting of fetal tissue.

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July 29, 2015

Democrat to Detractors: I’m Doing Better Than Your Guy

Schneider is running for an open Santa Barbara House seat. ((Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Schneider is running for an open Santa Barbara House seat. (Meredith Dake/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Seeking to avoid a contentious primary, some national Democrats have been working behind the scenes to force Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider out of a competitive open-seat House contest in California’s 24th District.

But Schneider has no plans to bow out of the race, and on Wednesday released a poll showing a slight lead in a primary against the candidate national Democrats prefer: Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal.

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July 16, 2015

Designers on 2016 Presidential Campaign Logos: Meh

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s entrance into the 2016 presidential race also meant the unveiling of his campaign logo: a bolded version of his last name with an American flag standing in for the letter “E.”

Professional designers for the most part were not impressed with Walker’s logo — especially given its similarity to the logo of eyewear company America’s Best Contacts & Eyeglasses. And the general consensus on his logo and those of his rivals? A resounding “meh.”

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June 4, 2015

Pew Poll: Immigration Pessimism on the Rise

Support for a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants remains strong, but the number of Americans who believe immigrants are a drain on the country is on the rise, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

The center reports 72 percent of Americans said in a poll conducted in May that undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. should be allowed to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. That result has fluctuated only slightly in recent years, according to Pew.

Full story

By David Eldridge Posted at 10 a.m.
Polling

April 29, 2015

Good News for Democrats Courting Millennial Voters

A majority of millennials want Democrats to hold the White House in 2016, and Clinton leads the field. (File Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

A majority of millennials want Democrats to hold the White House in 2016, and Clinton leads the field. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

If Democrats can turn out millennial voters for the presidential race in 2016, their downballot candidates may just get the boost they’re looking for from the 18- to 29-year-old crowd.

A Harvard Institute of Politics poll released Wednesday found a significant majority of millennial voters most likely to vote — 55 percent — wanted Democrats to hold onto the White House in 2016. Forty percent would prefer a Republican commander in chief. The poll, which was conducted online from March 18 to April 1, surveyed more than 3,000 adults nationwide ages 18 to 29.

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March 31, 2015

GOP Pollster: ‘Transformational’ Nominee Helps Blue State Senators

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Ayres speaks to Reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast. (Courtesy Michael Bonfigli/The Christian Science Monitor)

A prominent Republican pollster sounded warning bells about the shifting demographics of the American electorate at a breakfast with reporters Tuesday morning, saying his party must be more inclusive of minority voters if it wants to win the White House in 2016.

Whit Ayres, founder of the Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research, said the GOP must win more than 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, as well as appeal to younger voters, in order to be successful at the presidential level in 2016. To do that, he said the party needs to change its messaging and tone on issues such as immigration and same-sex marriage.

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