GOP Poll: Republican Brand Tarnished Among Hispanics

In the wake of Mitt Romney’s historically poor performance among Hispanic voters, GOP pollster Whit Ayres delivered more sobering news for his party on just how damaged the Republican brand is among that community.

According to a poll Ayres conducted in four battleground states that have high Hispanic populations, Hispanic voters said the GOP does not respect the values and concerns of their community. The GOP’s favorable rating is upside down in each state and the respondents did not equate the GOP with issues that are at the bedrock of the party. Full story

GOP Pollster: More Cellphones Needed in Surveys

A top pollster to 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney said Republicans must include more cellphones, young and Hispanic voters in their surveys to achieve more accurate results, a costly venture.

Veteran GOP pollster Glen Bolger argued that the 20 percent sample of cellphone users was not enough.

“It will increase costs, but as a party we have no choice,” Bolger wrote on his website Monday.

Republican pollsters were criticized this cycle for their surveys, which inaccurately predicted the results of many battleground states. In the wake of Romney’s loss, even the most prominent GOP survey gurus questioned their samples. Full story

Massachusetts: New Poll Finds Senate Race Very Close

Sen. Scott Brown had a slim lead over his Democratic opponent in a poll released just before Election Day. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Scott Brown (R) led Democrat Elizabeth Warren by 1 point among likely voters in a new poll, casting drops of doubt on the conventional wisdom that Warren had pulled into a comfortable and nearly insurmountable lead in the weeks before Election Day.

While the vast majority of recent reputable polling has shown Warren comfortably ahead of the incumbent, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll found Brown leading Warren 49 percent to 48 percent among Massachusetts registered voters likely to vote. One percent didn’t know and one percent said they would vote for someone else.

Among all registered voters, Warren led Brown by 2 points.

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Indiana: Howey Poll Gives Donnelly Big Edge Over Mourdock

Rep. Joe Donnelly led Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) led state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) by 11 points in the latest bipartisan survey from Howey Politics Indiana.

Donnelly garnered 47 percent of the vote, while Mourdock had 36 percent in the survey.  A libertarian candidate, Andrew Horning, picked up 6 percent, and 11 percent of voters were undecided.

The new poll comes 10 days after Mourdock’s controversial remark in the candidates’ final debate that pregnancy from rape is something “God intended.” In this new survey, 87 percent of respondents were familiar with that remark.

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Utah: Matheson Trails Love in New Poll

Utah Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson trails Republican challenger Mia Love in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love could be pulling away from Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in the race for Utah’s 4th district.

Love led Matheson by 12 points, 52 percent to 40 percent, in a new poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune. Just 9 percent of Republicans surveyed backed Matheson, which is not enough in a district Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is expected to carry with ease.

However, the Matheson campaign released a poll Thursday night — just hours ahead of the Tribune poll’s release — that showed him ahead by 2 points.

These two polls can’t both be right, but both national parties have been spending here as if the race is close. Full story

Indiana: Dueling Internal Polls Show Different Races

Rep. Joe Donnelly is running for Senate in Indiana. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

What’s the effect of state Treasurer Richard Mourdock’s (R) week-old debate comment that pregnancy from rape is something “God intended”?

Depends on whom you ask.

Today, Mourdock’s campaign released a second poll showing his race versus Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) as a statistical tie. His own campaign survey showed Mourdock leading Donnelly, 45 percent to 44 percent.

It’s safe to say, Donnelly’s team sees the race differently. His campaign released its own survey today that showed him leading Mourdock, 43 to 36 percent, among 600 likely voters.

Either way, the race for Indiana’s Senate seat remains highly competitive. Roll Call rates it as a Tossup.

Mourdock’s pollster, John McLaughlin and Associates, conducted his campaign poll Oct. 29-30. Donnelly’s pollster, Global Strategy Group, conducted his campaign poll Oct. 28-30.

Both surveys interviewed 600 likely voters and had a margins of error of 4 points.

David Axelrod Wagers Mustache on Winning Expanded Battleground States

Top Democratic strategist David Axelrod bet his mustache that President Barack Obama will win Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania next week. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

President Barack Obama’s campaign claimed today that Mitt Romney’s campaign is “flailing” in the final days, with senior strategist David Axelrod betting his mustache that Obama will win the newly minted battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.

Axelrod and Obama campaign manager Jim Messina on a conference call with reporters dismissed the Romney campaign’s late charge into those states, despite persistent polling leads for Obama, as a sign that it is losing in the existing battlegrounds and is increasingly desperate to expand the map.

“It’s break glass time in Boston,” Axelrod said. “I’ve put my mustache on the line.”

Messina said Democrats are piling up big leads among early voters in key battleground states including Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado and Florida.
Axelrod dismissed a question about Obama consistently trailing significantly among independents in polling. Full story

California: Raul Ruiz Up 6 Points in Internal Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for the campaign of Raul Ruiz found the Democrat up 6 points in his challenge to California Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R).

Ruiz led 48 percent to 42 percent in the Lake Research Partners poll, with 7 percent of voters undecided. The poll was taken of 409 residents of the 36th district who are either likely to vote or have already voted. It was conducted Oct. 20-22 and had a 4.9-point margin of error.

The polling memo stated that both candidates’ unfavorable ratings have increased over the past few weeks, as both sides have stepped up attacks. So, “in the final weeks of the race, it is important for the Ruiz campaign to introduce Ruiz to the 33% of voters who have not already voted and still have no impression of Ruiz,” the memo stated. Full story

Massachusetts: New Poll Has Elizabeth Warren Up 7 Points Over Scott Brown

A new poll in the Massachusetts Senate race showed Sen. Scott Brown down by 7 points. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll in the Massachusetts Senate race found Sen. Scott Brown (R) trailing Democrat Elizabeth Warren by 7 points in this horse-race matchup.

Warren, a Harvard University professor and consumer advocate, led Brown 53 percent to 46 percent in a newly released Suffolk University/7News poll. About 1 percent were undecided.

The survey found 45 percent had a favorable opinion of Brown, while 42 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Fifty-one percent had a favorable opinion of Warren, while 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her.

The Suffolk University poll — which is well respected in the Bay State — seemed to paint Monday’s Boston Globe poll, which showed the race tied, as something of an outlier. An average of recent polls showed Warren leading Brown by more than 4 points, a tough gap for the Senator to make up in the final week.

The Suffolk University poll surveyed 600 likely voters using live interviewers to call land lines and cellphones from Oct. 25 through Oct. 28. The poll’s margin of error was 4 points.

Massachusetts: New Poll Shows Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren Tied

A new poll showed Sen. Scott Brown tied with his Democratic challenger as the campaign winds down. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll in the bitterly fought Massachusetts Senate race found Sen. Scott Brown (R) tied with Democrat Elizabeth Warren. In a horse-race matchup among likely voters, including those who lean toward Brown or Warren, each candidate took 47 percent.

The survey, conducted for the Boston Globe by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, found 54 percent of those polled had a favorable impression of Brown, while 37 percent saw him unfavorably. Forty-nine percent saw Warren, a Harvard University professor and consumer advocate, favorably while 42 percent had an unfavorable view of her.

A number of earlier polls found Warren leading.

Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.

The poll surveyed 583 likely Bay State voters by live telephone interview from Oct. 24 to 28.  It had a margin of error of 4.1 points.

Minnesota: Chip Cravaack Leading in GOP Poll

An internal poll conducted by Rep. Chip Cravaack's campaign showed him ahead of his Democratic challenger. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 11:55 a.m. | With a week to go before Election Day, two competing polls from Minnesota’s 8th district show vastly different pictures of the tossup race between Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) and former Rep. Rick Nolan (D).

An internal poll conducted by Cravaack’s campaign showed the Republican incumbent ahead of Nolan by 10 points. The poll of 400 likely voters had Cravaack with 50 percent of the vote to Nolan’s 40 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points and it was conducted Oct. 24 and Oct. 25.

At the same time, a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,020 likely voters showed Nolan in the lead with 48 percent to Cravaack’s 44 percent, just slightly outside of the 3.8 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Oct. 25 and Oct. 26.

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Virginia: Tim Kaine Up 7 in New Poll

Tim Kaine (left) led in the latest Washington Post poll of the Virginia Senate race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from the Washington Post found that former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine led by 7 points in the open-seat Senate race.

The Democrat and fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) are battling in one of the most competitive contests of the cycle in a state that could go either way in the presidential race. And after a year of running even, polling results over the past six months have been as mixed as they once were steady.

However, the Post’s polling has not changed over the past month. In the latest survey, Kaine led 51 percent to 44 percent, a nearly identical result from the Post’s September poll. Full story

Rhode Island: GOP Poll Shows Brendan Doherty Leading David Cilcilline

A new GOP poll found Republican Brendan Doherty leading Rep. David Cicilline (D) by 6 points in the hard fought and bitterly nasty race for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional district.

The respected Republican firm OnMessage conducted a survey of likely voters for Doherty, which found him leading Cicilline 45 percent to 39 percent in a horse race matchup. Six percent of those polled said they would vote for independent candidate David Vogel, while 11 percent remained undecided.

Forty-two percent had a favorable view of Doherty, a retired state police officer, while 33 percent had an unfavorable view. Thirty-nine percent had a favorable view of Cicilline, while 46 percent had an unfavorable view of him.

President Barack Obama received 55 percent to Mitt Romney’s 34 percent in a ballot test in the poll, underscoring the district’s Democratic leanings.

The race appears to have turned significantly more competitive in recent days. The independent expenditure arms of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have both bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of ad time covering the final days of the campaign.

Cicilline campaign manager Eric Hyers said the poll was a distraction.

“Brendan Doherty has run one of nastiest and negative races in recent memory,” he wrote in an email. “He is trying to distract from the fact he is a Romney Republican who has the backing of national Republicans, and will, as President Bill Clinton said today in a robo-call, ‘be just another vote for those Republicans.’  That poll resembles nothing we have seen, and actually every public poll done so far has shown David ahead.”

Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.

The GOP poll, conducted by live telephone interview on Oct. 24 and 25, surveyed 400 likely voters in the district. It had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Here is the full GOP polling memo:

Competing Polls as Missouri Senate Race Enters Final Week

A new Missouri poll showed Sen. Claire McCaskill's lead over Rep. Todd Akin narrowing in the final days of the campaign. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll commissioned by two leading Missouri newspapers indicates the state’s Senate race may be narrowing approaching the final week, but internal polling from Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign tells a different story.

The independent poll, released late Friday night, showed McCaskill holding just a 2-point lead over her beleaguered GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Akin. The poll had a 4-point margin of error.

New internal numbers out this morning, however, showed McCaskill up by double digits, 53 percent to 39 percent. Most other polling has also shown McCaskill well ahead of Akin since he made remarks about pregnancies resulting from what he called “legitimate rape.”

“As we plan for the final week of the campaign, Sen. McCaskill is fully in command, and we see no indication that Akin has rebounded.  Quite the contrary; his ratings are now as low as we have ever measured them,” McCaskill’s pollsters from Kiley & Company said in a memo.

The polling firm Mason-Dixon conducted the outside survey of 625 likely voters for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star and St. Louis TV station KMOV. Asked about the new numbers, the McCaskill campaign was quick to remind KMOV that a Mason-Dixon poll released shortly before the Republican primary missed the mark entirely.

That poll showed Akin with 17 percent support, placing a distant third behind former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner. Akin prevailed in the primary with about 36 percent of the vote. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted shortly after the rape comments showed McCaskill ahead by 9 points.

McCaskill’s campaign launched three new ads statewide earlier in the week, continuing an aggressive campaign in spite of the lead.

“I think from a national perspective, Todd is doing what people said couldn’t be done,” Akin senior adviser Rick Tyler told KMOV.

Akin’s campaign has tried to bring the narrative back to economic issues and McCaskill’s job performance and away from his controversial statements, but that’s proved difficult with limited campaign resources. It has also been pushing a variety of allegations against businesses in which McCaskill’s husband is involved.

Akin has caused other trouble for himself, though.

He was forced to amend 10 years of financial disclosures after inexplicably failing to report a pension income he earned as a state employee.  He previously filed an amendment to his disclosure forms because he had neglected to list at least $355,000 in property.

Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.

Ohio: Jim Renacci Releases Poll Amid Questions on Ad Strategy

Rep. Betty Sutton makes a campaign stop at an Ohio Association of Professional Fire Fighters meeting at the Knights of Columbus in Avon, Ohio. Sutton is in a tight campaign for Ohio's 16th district against her Republican rival, Rep. Jim Renacci. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

CHICAGO — Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) today released a poll that showed him with a 10-point lead over his opponent, Rep. Betty Sutton (D).

Renacci led Sutton, 51 percent to 41 percent, in a survey conducted for the freshman Republican’s campaign. Seven percent of voters said they were undecided.

The survey results come just after Renacci stopped airing advertisements in the Cleveland broadcast market through Election Day. His strategy puzzled Democrats and, privately, some Republicans too. Both parties view the race as highly competitive, and Roll Call rates it as a Tossup.

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