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November 26, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

June 10, 2014

Internal Poll: Kingston Leads Perdue in Georgia Senate Runoff

Internal Poll: Kingston Leads Perdue in Georgia Senate Runoff

Kingston faces Perdue in a Senate runoff in Georgia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll of the Georgia Senate Republican primary runoff conducted for Rep. Jack Kingston found him with a double-digit lead over his opponent, businessman David Perdue.

Perdue got more votes than Kingston in the crowded Republican primary last month, but Kingston appears to have the momentum now that voters have to choose between just the two of them. They will face off on July 22.

According to the poll, Kingston led Perdue, 49 percent to 35 percent, with 16 percent of voters undecided. Full story

June 3, 2014

Democratic Poll: Lee Terry in Dead Heat

Democratic Poll: Lee Terry in Dead Heat

Terry is a Republican from Nebraska. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Democratic internal poll showed Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., could face a difficult fight for re-election in 2014.

The poll, commissioned by the campaign of his Democratic foe, Brad Ashford, showed the two men in a virtual tie. Each candidate had the support of 41 percent of the likely voters surveyed. A third candidate, libertarian Steven Laird, had the backing of 4 percent of respondents.

Terry faces challenges with his favorability ratings, according to the poll. Thirty-six percent of those interviewed held a favorable impression of the congressman, while 63 percent had a negative view of him.

Ashford, a state senator, is less well-known than the incumbent, but had a net positive rating. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of the challenger, while 18 percent said they viewed him unfavorably.

Another potential contender, former Republican state Sen. Chip Maxwell, was not included in the polling memo information. He is running as an independent in the race, creating angst among national Republican groups.

Here is the full polling memo:

Full story

June 2, 2014

Report: Attitudes Changing Toward Female Candidates

Report: Attitudes Changing Toward Female Candidates

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia is one of the Senate GOP's top female candidates this cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

As top female candidates around the country vie for competitive Senate and House seats in 2014, a report released Monday outlines key opportunities and challenges facing women who run for office.

Keys to Elected Office: The Essential Guide for Women, a report from the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, outlines shifting perceptions of female candidates. The report cautioned that women still face unique challenges running for office, but the authors also offered promising news for female politicians on voters’ perception of their economic acumen and non-traditional qualifications.

Foundation President Barbara Lee said the foundation’s research “applies to women running for office at every level,” though it focuses on women running for governor.

In the midterms, female candidates are running in some of the most high-profile races around the country, including Alison Lundergan Grimes’ challenge to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and state Sen. Joni Ernst’s Senate bid in Iowa. According to the Center for American Women and Politics, 24 women are still in the running for Senate and 220 for House this cycle. Women currently hold 19 percent of seats in Congress. Full story

May 22, 2014

Internal Poll: GOP Challenger Up In Targeted Illinois Race

GOP state Rep. Mike Bost had a 6-point lead on freshman Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart in a targeted Illinois House race, according to an internal poll conducted for Bost’s campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Bost garnered 43 percent to Enyart’s 37 percent, according to the poll, conducted by GOP polling firm The Tarrance Group.

The poll also found Enyart was not well established in his Illinois’ 12th District one year and five months into his term. Only 27 percent of voters approved of the job Enyart is doing, with half telling pollsters they were ready for new leadership in Congress.

Full story

May 15, 2014

Tea Party Candidate Lags in New Jersey Primary Poll

The New Jersey Republican-machine-backed candidate in an open-seat primary led a prominent tea party candidate by 11 points in a Monmouth University Poll released Thursday.

In the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jon Runyan, former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur, who is backed by the county establishments of New Jersey’s 3rd District, had the support of 46 percent of likely primary voters, while 35 percent backed tea party favorite and ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the party’s nominee in last year’s Senate special election. Twenty percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The outcome of the June 3 primary is highly consequential to the general. Most New Jersey and national Republican operatives are aiming for a MacArthur victory, fearing that a tea party candidate could lose the seat to Democrats. The Democratic candidate, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, is a safe bet to win her party’s nomination, and at this point the race is rated a Tossup by the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call. Full story

May 14, 2014

For Democrats, It’s Déjà Vu in California’s 31st District

Democrats may have reason for concern about a replay from 2012, when the party fumbled a sure pickup opportunity in Southern California thanks to the state’s new top-two primary.

According to a poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and obtained by CQ Roll Call, former Democratic Rep. Joe Baca, who has raised little money and is not backed by the national party, is gaining on the two Democratic front-runners in the 31st District open-seat race. With a 5-point rise since last month, Baca is now tied for third with attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, behind Republican businessman Paul Chabot and Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, who is backed by the DCCC.

Chabot led the primary field among likely voters with 23 percent, followed by Aguilar with 15 percent, and Reyes and Baca with 13 percent apiece. Should the three top Democrats splinter the vote nearly evenly in the primary, there is a possibility one of the other Republicans finishes second — again.

“This dynamic leaves the door open for a scenario in which two Republicans clear the primary and Democrats are shut out of the general election, as they were in 2012,” pollsters for California-based Tulchin Research wrote in a memo.

The pollsters found Baca was unlikely to finish in the top two, but “this development has further diluted the Democratic vote…”

Full story

May 13, 2014

Cotton Internal Poll Finds Senate Race in Dead Heat

Cotton Internal Poll Finds Senate Race in Dead Heat

Cotton is challenging Mark Pryor in a top Senate race. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Arkansas Rep. Tom Cotton’s Senate campaign is pushing back on recent polls showing the Republican trailing Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.

In an internal poll conducted for Cotton by OnMessage Inc., Cotton and Pryor are in a dead heat. It found the freshman lawmaker taking 42 percent of the vote to Pryor’s 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Full story

May 12, 2014

Tea Party Candidate Hammers Boehner Ally on ‘Amnesty’

Tea Party Candidate Hammers Boehner Ally on Amnesty

Smith is challenging Rep. Mike Simpson in the May 20 primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Two weeks from the primary, the tea party rival to Idaho Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is up with a new TV ad accusing the eight-term incumbent of supporting “amnesty.”

“Why are the Washington, D.C., special interests spending millions to prop up Mike Simpson?” a female narrator asks in attorney Bryan Smith’s ad. “Because he supports a scheme to give amnesty to illegal aliens.”

 

Full story

May 9, 2014

Sasse Launches Closing Argument TV Ad

Sasse Launches Closing Argument TV Ad

Sasse is airing his final TV ad before Tuesday's primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ben Sasse’s final TV ad ahead of Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary in Nebraska touts his big-name endorsements, his opposition to the Affordable Care Act and his campaign’s decision not to run negative advertising.

The spot lands amid a crush of ads run by outside groups backing Sasse and one of his opponents, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, in the final week before the May 13 primary.

Sasse’s spot is running statewide on broadcast and cable, part of a 1,500-point buy for the final week of the campaign, according to a campaign spokesman. Full story

May 1, 2014

Jack Kingston Poll Finds Him Ahead in Georgia Senate Primary

Jack Kingston Poll Finds Him Ahead in Georgia Senate Primary

Kingston speaks at an April 19 debate in Augusta, Ga. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

With less than three weeks until Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., released an internal poll Thursday that found him leading the crowded field.

Kingston led with 20 percent, followed by former Dollar General and Reebok CEO David Perdue with 17 percent, former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel with 14 percent, Rep. Phil Gingrey with 13 percent and Rep. Paul Broun with 8 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters were undecided.

The primary is essentially a race to finish in the top two. If no candidate receives a majority of the primary vote, the two leading vote recipients will advance to a July 22 runoff. The winner is expected to face former Points of Light Foundation CEO Michelle Nunn in the general election for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Full story

April 29, 2014

Poll: Majority of Younger Voters Not Planning to Turn Up for Midterms

Candidates running for office in this year’s midterm elections should expect little help from younger voters, most of whom, according to a poll released Tuesday, are unlikely to go to the polls in November.

The Harvard Institute of Politics poll of millenials found that just 23 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds say they will definitely vote in November. That number has fallen 11 percent just since last November, when 34 percent said they planned to vote in the 2014 midterms.

In February of 2010, before the last midterm election, 31 percent said they would definitely be voting.

Pollster John Della Volpe attributed the disinterest to a “decrease in trust” in government institutions and an “increase in cynicism.” Younger voters, he said, “need to feel like they’re making a difference,” a feeling that voting in elections does not necessarily provide. He noted as well that voting is often logistically difficult on college campuses. Full story

April 28, 2014

Internal Poll: Doug Ose Leads GOP Pack in California Primary

Former Rep. Doug Ose led his fellow Republicans in a targeted California House race by a wide margin, according to a poll conducted for Ose’s campaign.

Ose took 24 percent in the poll, while his two GOP opponents in the June 3 top-two primary for California’s 7th District didn’t crack double digits. Among the other two Republicans, former Capitol Hill aide Igor Birman took 8 percent and nonprofit executive Elizabeth Emken was supported by 6 percent of the poll’s respondents.

The trio is running for the chance to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ami Bera in this competitive district, located in the Sacramento-area. Not surprisingly, Bera, who is a near lock to advance beyond the primary, led all challengers with 43 percent.

Full story

Internal Poll: N.C. Republican Close to Avoiding Runoff

Rockingham District Attorney Phil Berger Jr. is just a few points shy of avoiding a runoff in a competitive GOP primary for an open House seat in North Carolina, according to an internal poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

According to the poll, Berger led the GOP field with 36 percent in the 6th District. A candidate must get 40 percent of the vote in the May 6 primary to avoid a runoff in the Tar Heel State.

Full story

April 24, 2014

GOP Internal Poll: McSally, Barber Are Deadlocked

GOP Internal Poll: McSally, Barber Are Deadlocked

McSally is challenging Barber again in Arizona. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll conducted for the campaign of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally found the Arizona Republican had a slight, within-the-margin-of-error lead over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber.

McSally led 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 points in the OnMessage Inc. poll obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The pair are locked in a rematch of 2012, when Barber narrowly defeated McSally, and they are likely to stay close in the polls heading into November in this swing district. Full story

Poll: Colorado Senate Race Virtually Tied

Poll: Colorado Senate Race Virtually Tied

Gardner is running for Senate. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed a virtually tied race for Senate in Colorado.

Democratic Sen. Mark Udall led his GOP challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, by a single point  — 45 percent to 44 percent — in the survey. That split was within the poll’s margin of error of 2.7 points.

This survey was the first independent, live-interview poll conducted in the race since Gardner announced his candidacy in March. Until then, Udall had not attracted any top-tier opposition, but Gardner’s entrance into the race immediately made the contest more competitive.

Full story

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