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April 21, 2014

Posts in "Polling"

June 21, 2013

Special-Election Polling Doesn’t Match 2010 Upset #MASEN

Special Election Polling Doesnt Match 2010 Upset #MASEN

Brown's 2010 success likely won't be repeated. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Sen. Scott P. Brown, who lost a bid for a full term in November, will make his first appearance on the Massachusetts special-election campaign trail June 24. But a day before the election, the race will likely look more like his November 2012 loss than his January 2010 upset.

Republican nominee Gabriel Gomez’s team remains optimistic based on a solid Tuesday debate performance and a recent internal poll that showed him within striking distance of Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass. Plus, turnout is unpredictable in any special election.

But even if Gomez is still down just 7 points internally, public polls released this week don’t offer any evidence of a surge of support like the one that lifted Brown to a 5-point special-election victory on Jan. 19, 2010:

Full story

June 17, 2013

Democrats Tie Republican to Romney in Special Election #MASEN

With a new poll showing Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., pulling away, yet another outside group spot is hitting GOP nominee Gabriel Gomez in the Massachusetts Senate special election.

The new Senate Majority PAC advertisement, released on Monday, ties Gomez to Mitt Romney, the former Bay State governor and presidential nominee whose business background was tarnished in early 2012 ads. The ad is part of a $1 million media buy from the group, contributing to the overwhelming spending advantage Markey and his Democratic allies enjoy in this race.

Full story

June 4, 2013

Poll: Markey’s Lead Increases in Special Election #MASEN

Poll: Markeys Lead Increases in Special Election #MASEN

Another public poll showed Markey in the lead over the Republican candidate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new automated poll out Tuesday found Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., with a 12-point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez in the upcoming Senate special election.

Markey took 52 percent in the New England College poll, with 40 percent backing Gomez and 8 percent undecided. Both candidates received the support of about three-quarters of voters in their own party, which — given the state’s severe Democratic lean — gave Markey a big edge over Gomez.

The poll arrived as both campaigns launched new TV ad campaigns this week. Just three weeks remain before the June 25 race to fill the remaining Senate term of Secretary of State John Kerry. Full story

May 21, 2013

Gary Peters Leads Poll, Hires Campaign Manager #MISEN

Gary Peters Leads Poll, Hires Campaign Manager #MISEN

Peters is running for Senate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Rep. Gary Peters has a campaign manager and a lead in the polls — but he’s still awaiting a GOP opponent for the open-seat Senate race in Michigan.

With the Republican field likely to begin to take shape next month, the third-term Democrat announced on Tuesday that Julie Petrick has signed on as campaign manager. Petrick managed Peters’ first election to Congress in 2008 and is coming from the political team at EMILY’s List.

In the race for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, the 14th District’s Peters took an early lead in a hypothetical matchup with the 8th District’s GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, who is considering a bid. The poll was conducted by EPIC-MRA and found Peters with a 7-point lead, though a third of voters were undecided. Full story

May 1, 2013

GOP Tests Gay Candidate as ‘New Generation Republican’ in Poll #CA52

GOP Tests Gay Candidate as New Generation Republican in Poll #CA52

Peters is vulnerable in 2014. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new GOP poll tested former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, an openly gay Republican and potential congressional candidate, as a “new generation Republican” in the highly competitive 52nd District.

DeMaio, who ran unsuccessfully for mayor last year, posted solid favorable ratings. He led freshman Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

The poll informed likely voters that DeMaio is openly gay and he would prefer that the GOP focus on fixing the federal government’s finances rather than on social issues. According to the polling memo, the results of pitching that kind of a profile in this moderate district were encouraging across the political spectrum.

“The data from this survey shows that DeMaio could be very successful in a congressional race portraying himself as a ‘new generation Republican,’” Tarrance Group pollster Dave Sackett wrote.

The survey memo, obtained by CQ Roll Call, was paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Full story

March 25, 2013

California: Honda Touts Additional Democratic Support

California: Honda Touts Additional Democratic Support

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Michael M. Honda is continuing to roll out internal polling and endorsements to scare off potential challenges from fellow Democrats.

Honda announced Monday the endorsements of California’s two Democratic senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, who said in separate statements that Silicon Valley needed Honda’s leadership.

The latest endorsements come a week after Honda released an internal poll that found him well ahead in a hypothetical top-two primary against two possible challengers, a Republican who lost to him in 2012 and former Obama administration official Ro Khanna, who is rumored to be eyeing Honda’s seat. The news also comes two months after Honda was endorsed by President Barack Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.

Khanna has not announced his plans yet, but his million-dollar war chest is enough to push Honda to play defense aggressively early in the cycle. The state’s top-two primary format means Honda could face Khanna in the general election, a scenario that ended the careers of two Democratic incumbents in 2012.

March 21, 2013

California: Honda’s Internal Poll Finds Him in Strong Position

California: Hondas Internal Poll Finds Him in Strong Position

An internal poll released by Honda showed the seven-term Democrat leading two opponents in a hypothetical top-two primary matchup by a wide margin. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Michael M. Honda, D-Calif., sent a signal to his potential opponents Thursday that they would start a campaign at a major disadvantage if they challenged him.

An internal poll released by Honda showed the seven-term Democrat leading two opponents in a hypothetical top-two primary matchup by a wide margin.

Honda took 57 percent, followed by 2012 GOP candidate Evelyn Li with 13 percent and former Obama administration official Ro Khanna with 5 percent. Full story

March 18, 2013

New Poll Shows Support for Gay Marriage at All-Time High

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll found record high support — 58 percent — for gay marriage.

In a new survey released Monday, only 36 percent of those polled thought marriage for gay and lesbian couples should be illegal and 6 percent had no opinion.

Gay marriage has been one of the country’s fastest-shifting political issues of the decade. Just three years ago, the same poll found 47 percent of respondents favored legal gay marriage and 50 percent were against it.

The new numbers were released on the heels of two top officials — a Democrat and Republican — announcing that their views have evolved on the matter. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said last week that he now supports the right of gay people to get married. On Monday, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced via video that she has evolved to support same-sex marriage. Clinton is a possible 2016 presidential frontrunner.

Full story

Three Takeaways From the RNC’s Autopsy Report for 2014

Three Takeaways From the RNCs Autopsy Report for 2014

Priebus announced the details of the RNC's "autopsy" report of the 2012 elections. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The Republican National Committee rolled out a massive post-2012-elections report Monday that focused on crafting what RNC Chairman Reince Priebus called a “fresh beginning” for a party that was on the losing end of a number of electoral contests last cycle.

“We know we have problems,” Priebus said to a packed ballroom at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. “We’ve identified them, and we’re implementing the solutions to fix them.”

The report’s recommendations were mostly broad in nature — better messaging, more openness to those with differing views, earlier outreach and engagement to minority groups, a stronger data infrastructure and a more robust get-out-the-vote operation.

Many of the recommendations focused on national campaigns, for example condensing the presidential primary calendar and controlling the debate schedule. But there were specific recommendations that are likely to have a more immediate effect on 2014:

Full story

By Joshua Miller Posted at 1:10 p.m.
Ads, GOTV, Polling, RNC

March 7, 2013

Massachusetts: New Poll Finds Markey Senate Special Election Frontrunner

Massachusetts: New Poll Finds Markey Senate Special Election Frontrunner

Markey leads a new poll of the Senate special election in Massachusetts (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey remains the strong favorite to win the special election for Senate in Massachusetts, according to a new poll of registered voters released late Wednesday.

Markey led Rep. Stephen F. Lynch, his Democratic primary opponent, 50 percent to 21 percent, among polled potential Democratic voters, according to a UMass Lowell-Boston Herald survey. Twenty-three percent said they were were unsure about the primary.

Markey, a House veteran first elected in 1976, also led his all three potential GOP challengers by a comfortable margin in horserace matchups. His closest GOP competitor was former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan, who took 30 percent to Markey’s 48 percent. Sullivan is seen as the frontrunner in his race for the Republican nomination with state Rep. Dan Winslow and Gabriel Gomez, a private equity investor and former Navy SEAL.

Lynch also led all Republicans in horserace matchups.

Full story

February 21, 2013

New Jersey: Survey Shows Menendez’s Popularity Sliding

New Jersey: Survey Shows Menendezs Popularity Sliding

Menendez's poll numbers went south in a recent survey. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Robert Menendez’s popularity in the Garden State has taken a big hit following the drumbeat of media reports about his alleged improprieties.

In a new poll from Quinnipiac University, 41 percent of registered New Jersey voters surveyed said they disapprove of the way Menendez is handling his job as senator, while only 36 percent approve. A month ago in a similar poll, 51 percent approved and 33 percent disapproved.

Twenty-eight percent of those polled said Menendez was “honest and trustworthy,” while 44 percent said he was not.

Those numbers would be daunting for any incumbent facing re-election. But Menendez, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, will not face voters until 2018. He won re-election with 59 percent of the vote last November.

Another Democrat, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, on the other hand, is exploring a run for the state’s open Senate seat in 2014. He fared well in the poll, with 59 percent saying they had a favorable opinion of him and only 11 percent seeing him unfavorably. Potential Republican candidate Geraldo Rivera didn’t do as well: only 20 percent had a favorable opinion of him, with 39 percent seeing him unfavorably.

The Quinnipiac University poll used live interviewers to survey 1,149 registered voters on land lines and cellphones Feb. 13-17. The poll’s margin of error was 2.9 points.

February 15, 2013

Georgia: New Poll Finds Close Race in GOP Senate Primary

Georgia: New Poll Finds Close Race in GOP Senate Primary

Broun is in a statistical tie in a new poll. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Georgia Republican Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey and Tom Price lead the field of potential contenders for the GOP nomination in the open Senate race.

In a new survey conducted by Harper Polling, a GOP firm, 19 percent of Republicans polled said Broun would be their pick for the nominee to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss, 18 percent picked Gingrey and 17 percent said they would vote for Price.

Rep. Jack Kingston took 13 percent, and two other candidates, Ross Tolleson and Kelly Loeffler, got negligible support in the survey.

Broun is the only declared candidate for the seat, but Gingrey and Kingston are expected to decide on a run soon. Price has said he will wait to make a decision until May. Full story

February 14, 2013

New Jersey: Another Poll Gives Booker Big Edge Over Lautenberg

Yet another poll shows Newark Mayor Cory Booker with a commanding lead over Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg in a 2014 Democratic primary.

Meanwhile, television personality Geraldo Rivera has work to do if he wants to be a viable contender, according to a new Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll.

In the poll released Thursday, 40 percent of Democrats backed Booker, while 25 percent said they would support Lautenberg. Notably, only 15 percent of surveyed Democrats said they wanted Lautenberg to return to the Senate.

Lautenberg has not yet said definitively whether he will seek re-election in 2014. Regardless of his plans, CQ Roll Call rates this race as Safe Democratic.

Only 26 percent of respondents said they were likely to vote for Rivera. The television personality indicated his interest in the Garden State Senate race last month.

Full story

February 8, 2013

Iowa: Vilsack Would Be Potent Senate Candidate, Poll Finds

Not so fast, Rep. Bruce Braley. There’s another Iowa Democrat with plenty of goodwill awaiting him if he runs for Senate: former Gov. Tom Vilsack.

That’s according to a new poll of 802 Iowa adults conducted by Ann Selzer on behalf of the Des Moines Register. It was fielded Feb. 3-6 and released Friday — one day after Braley announced he would seek the seat.

With Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin retiring, poll respondents were read a list of possible candidates and asked whether each would be appealing. Fifty-six percent said Vilsack would be an appealing candidate, and 36 percent said the same of Braley, who represents a northeastern Iowa district. Rep. Tom Latham received the best score among the Republicans, with 40 percent viewing him as an appealing candidate. Full story

February 1, 2013

Iowa: King Has Early Primary Edge Over Latham

Iowa: King Has Early Primary Edge Over Latham

A GOP poll showed King ahead in a hypothetical primary against another lawmaker. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Iowa Rep. Steve King would have an early edge over Rep. Tom Latham in a hypothetical Republican Senate primary, according to a new poll from the  GOP firm Harper Polling.

King led Latham in a two-way and multi-candidate GOP primary matchup, one that has the potential to become ideologically driven. However, Latham was the only Republican who led Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in a hypothetical general election matchup to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. Latham led Braley by 3 points, while King trailed him by 5 points.

None of these members of Congress have said whether they will seek the open Senate seat, but all three are believed to be interested in what could be among the most competitive races in 2014. CQ Roll Call currently rates the race as Leans Democratic. Full story

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