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April 1, 2015

Posts in "Primaries"

June 19, 2014

Elise Stefanik Leads in New York Primary Poll

Elise Stefanik Leads in New York Primary Poll

Doheny trailed in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former White House aide Elise Stefanik is in a strong position to win Tuesday’s GOP primary in an upstate New York district, according to a new poll.

Stefanik led 45 percent to 37 percent for businessman Matt Doheny in the automated poll conducted by Republican firm Harper Polling. The poll follows more than $1 million in outside spending in the 21st District on Stefanik’s behalf.

Doheny is slightly better known in the district, but 41 percent of respondents had a negative view him while 39 percent viewed him favorably. Nearly half of all those surveyed, 49 percent, said they had a positive image of Stefanik while 29 percent had a negative opinion of her. Full story

Republican Calls for Recount in Targeted California Race

Republican Calls for Recount in Targeted California Race

Miller, a California Republican, is retiring. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republican Lesli Gooch’s campaign called for a recount Wednesday evening in California’s 31st District, a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats in 2014.

“We have been in consultation with campaign attorneys and polling data experts over the past several days. They feel a recount is warranted and have identified precincts that will be recounted,” Gooch’s campaign said in a news release.

Gooch trails Democrat Pete Aguilar for second place by 209 votes and therefore faces long odds to victory in the recount. Her campaign had until Wednesday to determine whether to call for a recount — a costly endeavor they must pay for out of pocket.

In California’s primary, the top two vote recipients proceed to the general election, regardless of party. Democrats need Aguilar to advance to the general election to have any shot at competing here this fall, as businessman Paul Chabot has already secured the first-place spot in the top-two primary.

Full story

Senate Majority Might Not Be Decided Until December

Senate Majority Might Not Be Decided Until December

The Senate majority could be decided late in Louisiana if Landrieu's race goes to runoff. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

For all the money spent on the November elections, control of the Senate might not be decided until a Saturday three weeks before Christmas.

Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., hopes to win re-election outright on Nov. 4 in a jungle primary against a handful of challengers. But winning a majority of the vote in a multi-candidate field would be a significant feat, and the campaigns of both Landrieu and her leading Republican opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy, are undoubtedly preparing for an extended, one-on-one race.

If a Dec. 6 runoff coincides with a 50-49 Republican advantage in the Senate, consultants in and out of the state warn of an unprecedented onslaught of spending from party committees and outside groups in a race that could become more about the national parties than the two candidates on the ballot.

“Mary kind of becomes a pawn in a much, much bigger game,” said Dane Strother, a Democratic media consultant and Baton Rouge native who’s worked on previous Landrieu campaigns. “The entire force of national politics will land on Louisiana. They’ll buy every radio ad, every TV ad, inundate with direct mail. It will be a war.” Full story

June 18, 2014

James Lankford on ‘Big Dirty Secret’ of Senate Campaign (Video Interview)

Oklahoma Republican James Lankford, a second term congressman seeking the state’s open Senate seat, chose his words carefully in a recent interview when discussing his top opponent, former state Speaker T.W. Shannon.

“I keep Reagan’s 11th Commandment that I don’t run down other Republicans,” Lankford told CQ Roll Call.

That’s true in both interviews and in his paid media strategy, as Lankford noted he plans to not run any negative ads in advance of the June 24 primary. Full story

Lankford Builds Momentum in Oklahoma Senate Race

Lankford Builds Momentum in Oklahoma Senate Race

Lankford is running for Senate in Oklahoma. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Don’t call it a comeback. Rep. James Lankford was always there.

But the Oklahoma Republican’s Senate bid has picked up momentum ahead of Tuesday’s primary, which now looks likely proceed to a runoff, giving Lankford his clearest shot at the open seat.

To win the GOP nod, the two-term congressman must eclipse the national star power of his most formidable opponent, former state Speaker T.W. Shannon, in a battle that also includes former state Sen. Randy Brogdon and several lesser-known candidates. If no candidate receives 50 percent of the primary vote Tuesday, the top two vote recipients head to an August runoff.

Lankford’s recent rise in polls and on the airwaves are signals that scenario, and his chances of taking the nomination, are increasingly likely, according to Sooner State Republicans.

“It seems to me now like Lankford has the momentum,” said Oklahoma Republican Party Chairman Dave Weston.

Full story

June 17, 2014

Reinforcements Infiltrate Mississippi Senate Race Runoff

Reinforcements Infiltrate Mississippi Senate Race Runoff

In the Mississippi Senate race, McDaniel received more outside help Tuesday. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

The Senate Conservatives Fund launched a new TV ad in Mississippi on Tuesday, becoming the latest outside group to spend significant money on the state’s Republican Senate primary runoff.

With a week to go in the three-week-long race, the SCF’s political action arm expended $210,000 for a spot arguing “it’s time for a conservative change” from six-term Sen. Thad Cochran to state Sen. Chris McDaniel.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR9DSxO4hfE 

The outside help comes as both candidates have pushed to raise money of their own for the extended contest. Cochran benefited from a 250-person fundraiser at the National Republican Senatorial Committee last week that provided an $820,000 financial surge. Full story

T.W. Shannon Makes Final Airwaves Push Before Primary

T.W. Shannon Makes Final Airwaves Push Before Primary

Lankford faces T.W. Shannon in the June 24 Senate primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Oklahoma Speaker T.W. Shannon has debuted two new ads in the last week before the Senate GOP primary: a positive spot touting his credentials, plus an ad featuring former Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Okla.

Shannon and Rep. James Lankford, R-Okla., are locked a tight GOP primary on June 24  that will likely head to an August runoff if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote. Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., is stepping down at the end of this Congress, creating this contentious special election for his seat.

In Shannon’s positive spot, provided to CQ Roll Call, Shannon speaks directly to the camera.

“America is at a crossroads,” he says, standing near Route 66. Full story

June 16, 2014

Crossroads Upends New York’s 21st District Primary

Crossroads Upends New Yorks 21st District Primary

Crossroads is spending heavily in New York's 21st District primary against Matt Doheny, above. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

In New York’s sprawling 21st District, a recent influx of more than $1 million from outside groups has catapulted a 29-year-old first-time candidate ahead of the two-time nominee in the Republican primary for this coveted seat.

American Crossroads alone has already made more than $750,000 in independent expenditures to boost former White House aide Elise Stefanik’s bid — the group’s only spending in a House primary so far in 2014.

The June 24 Republican primary pits Stefanik against Matt Doheny, a deep-pocketed businessman and repeat candidate.

Early on in the race, Doheny’s familiarity with local voters and track record of self-funding his campaigns gave him an advantage. But two outside groups have flooded the district’s airwaves in a way that sources say has thrown the momentum to Stefanik.  Full story

Lankford Led Shannon in Oklahoma Senate Pre-Primary Fundraising

Lankford Led Shannon in Oklahoma Senate Pre Primary Fundraising

Lankford is running in the June 24 Senate primary. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. James Lankford headed into the final three weeks of the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary with more than double the cash on hand of his top opponent, state Speaker T.W. Shannon.

Shannon and Lankford are locked in a tight battle to succeed Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, who is resigning at the end of this Congress. The winner of the June 24 primary — or Aug. 26 runoff — will be heavily favored in the November special election to serve out the remaining two years of Coburn’s term.

According to pre-primary reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission, Lankford had $732,000 in cash on hand as of June 4, while Shannon had $330,000. Full story

Elizabeth Warren Endorses in Targeted Massachusetts Race

Elizabeth Warren Endorses in Targeted Massachusetts Race

Elizabeth Warren" src="http://atr.rollcall.com/wp-content/uploads/warren_097_0501414-445x296.jpg" alt="elizabeth warren john tierney" width="445" height="296" />

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., endorsed Rep. John F. Tierney’s re-election bid at a campaign rally in the Bay State’s 6th District Monday, calling the House Democrat a “tireless champion for Massachusetts families.”

“I had the chance to work closely with Congressman Tierney on consumer protection issues years before I ran for the Senate, and I’m very glad to work as his partner in Congress today,” Warren said in a release. “Throughout his career, he has fought hard to strengthen our schools, to improve access to high-quality, affordable education, and to make the kinds of investments that grow our economy in the 6th District and across the Commonwealth.”

Tierney faces a primary in September against veteran Seth Moulton and attorney Marisa DeFranco. Moulton has raised more money than Tierney — one of only a few challengers to bring in more bucks than an incumbent this cycle — although the congressman has more cash in the bank.

Full story

June 13, 2014

Pre-Primary Reports Filed for Charlie Rangel, Mike Coffman and Many More

Pre Primary Reports Filed for Charlie Rangel, Mike Coffman and Many More

Rangel faces a competitive June 24 primary. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Fundraising reports filed Thursday by candidates running in the June 24 primaries revealed eleventh hour insight into the financial viability of embattled incumbents and their challengers.

The reports, covering campaign finances from April 1 to June 4, show whether campaigns have money, how quickly they are spending it and how much cash they had for the final stretch.

After a tumultuous week, in which House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary, here is a look at the financial side of the races to watch in less than two weeks: Full story

Thad Cochran Rakes in Campaign Cash for Runoff

Thad Cochran Rakes in Campaign Cash for Runoff

Supporters in D.C. and Mississippi have opened their wallets for Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., since he came up 1,400 votes behind his GOP primary challenger last week and was forced into a runoff.

In the eight days since, the six-term incumbent has raised $370,000, according to multiple 48-hour reports filed to the Federal Election Commission as of Friday morning. That includes contributions from supporters back home, lobbyists and his fellow senators, including Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, John Cornyn of Texas and Jerry Moran of Kansas, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

And there is more coming in. The NRSC hosted a 250-person fundraiser for Cochran on Tuesday that raised $820,000, a committee official confirmed. Some of those funds are likely reflected in his 48-hour reports. Full story

June 11, 2014

GOP Immigration Push Forced to Reconcile With Eric Cantor Loss

Talk about timing.

Nearly a dozen Republican pollsters gathered Wednesday morning for a long-scheduled event to deliver survey results funded by a lobbying effort for the House to pass a comprehensive immigration overhaul — but they were forced to reconcile their findings with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s primary defeat Tuesday night.

In a Capitol Hill hotel ballroom, the pollsters, whose collective client lists include a majority of Republicans in Congress, went through the two polls they conducted of Hispanic voters and of the electorate at-large for FWD.us, a pro-immigration overhaul, tech-community lobbying group founded by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

It’s a two-pronged argument that highlights the importance of congressional action on immigration for the party’s ability to win national elections and reassures Republicans they should not fear repercussions at the primary ballot box.

While Cantor’s stunning loss was to a challenger who based part of his message attacking the No. 2 House Republican on that issue, the pollsters explained that was in fact not the race from Tuesday night that should be used to judge immigration’s electoral power. Full story

Brat Could See Barrage of GOP Opponents in 2016

David Brat, the Republican college professor who ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a historic upset Tuesday, shouldn’t get too comfortable.

While Brat is the heavy favorite to win in Virginia’s solidly Republican 7th District in November, he would start his congressional career with a bull’s-eye on his back from fellow Richmond-area Republicans.

And with state legislative elections falling in odd years, anyone who wanted to wage a primary bid against Brat in 2016 would get a free pass — able to keep their positions in the state Senate and House of Delegates.

Full story

Eric Cantor’s Polling Firm Takes Heat (Updated)

Eric Cantors Polling Firm Takes Heat (Updated)

Updated 5:25 p.m. | After House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning primary loss in Virginia Tuesday night, national GOP operatives are barreling through the five stages of grief: Denial, anger, and now bargaining — looking for answers on his out-of-the-blue political death.

Their fingers are, in part, pointed directly at McLaughlin & Associates, the Republican polling firm behind the wildly incorrect survey on Cantor’s race. In his poll conducted at the end of May, Cantor had a 34-point lead over college professor David Brat.

Two weeks later, Cantor faced a 12-point drubbing.

Full story

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