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Posts in "Leans Democratic"
August 30, 2012
California Rep. John Garamendi (D) led his Republican challenger by 15 points in a new poll conducted for a Democratic-aligned super PAC.
Garamendi led Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann 54 percent to 39 percent. The two are running in the redrawn, Sacramento-area 3rd district, which became more competitive after redistricting.
The poll of 400 likely voters in the district was conducted August 26-27 by GBA Strategies on behalf of House Majority PAC. It had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal automated poll last month that showed Garamendi ahead by 15 points.
Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.
August 29, 2012
The New Mexico Senate race appears to be moving in Democrats’ direction.
That’s the sense after a string of new polling showed Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) expanding his lead beyond the margin of error against former Rep. Heather Wilson (R). Plus, national Republicans have shifted money for television time out of the state to a more competitive race.
August 28, 2012
Two polls released today offer mixed news for Republicans and Democrats in competitive Connecticut Senate and House races.
A new poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee surveying the 5th district House race showed former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) had a 9-point lead over state Sen. Andrew Roraback (R). Forty-four percent of those polled said they intended to vote for Esty, while 35 percent said they would back Roraback. Full story
August 25, 2012
Thanks to heavy and effective television advertising and a disciplined campaign, former WWE CEO Linda McMahon has pushed her Senate race against Rep. Chris Murphy (D) from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.
At the beginning of this cycle, many Washington Republicans wrote off her campaign. National Republicans now compliment her campaign’s execution over the past year. They make no pretense that this race is on par with tossups in Virginia or Massachusetts, but insist it is much more competitive than it seems on the surface. Full story
August 16, 2012
Updated 1:30 p.m. | Freshman Rep. Robert Dold (R) and businessman Brad Schneider (D) are in a dead heat in the race for an Illinois House seat, according to a new Democratic poll released today.
Dold and Schneider each received 46 percent in the survey conducted for the Service Employees International Union and House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.
The 10th district presents Democrats with one of their best pick-up opportunities this fall. Currently, Dold represents the most Democratic district held by a GOP House Member. What’s more, Democrats improved the 10th for their party in their redraw of the state’s Congressional map last year. Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.
Democrats argue the poll is further evidence Dold is in trouble going into November.
“Bob Dold is in serious trouble because he is seriously out of step with Illinois,” said Alixandria Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC.
August 14, 2012
Rep. Connie Mack IV, who had broad support from just about every swath of the Republican Party, easily picked up the GOP nomination for Senate to take on Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in November.
Mack defeated long-shot candidates former Rep. Dave Weldon, retired Army Col. Mike McCalister and activist Marielena Stuart in primary. With 42.7 percent of precincts reporting, Mack had 58.5 percent of ballots cast, according to the Associated Press.
Nelson also easily dispatched a nonserious opponent. The two-term Senator took 79.3 percent of the vote, with 43.1 percent reporting, per AP results.
Mack is seen in both Democratic and Republican circles as a particularly weak candidate. The race in November favors Nelson.
Roll Call rates the Senate race as Leans Democratic. Nelson is widely expected to outperform President Barack Obama regardless of whether he wins the battleground state.
August 9, 2012
House Democrats had a productive primary night Tuesday. But how good was it, really?
In Michigan, Democrats nominated their strongest possible general election candidate, a self-funding former state lawmaker, to challenge freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R) in the 3rd district. Another potential opportunity was solidified in the vacant 11th district, where Republicans nominated a libertarian reindeer rancher who is untested and unvetted as a candidate. Finally, on the West Coast, Democrats nominated the best possible candidate, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, in Washington’s vacant 1st district.
“We were presented with some good opportunities last night,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) boasted to reporters Wednesday. “Make no mistake about it: Michigan was a huge loss for Republicans and a real opportunity for Democrats.”
August 2, 2012
Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and his Republican challenger, Ricky Gill, are in a dead heat in the 9th district, according to a poll conducted for Gill and the National Republican Congressional Committee. Full story
August 1, 2012
A poll conducted for Rep. Jerry McNerney found the Democrat ahead of his Republican challenger, Ricky Gill, 49 percent to 33 percent.
McNerney led Gill by 24 points among “decline to state” voters, according to the polling memo from Lake Research Partners. The firm conducted the poll of 504 likely voters from July 8-11, and it had a 4.4-point margin of error. Its sample included 45 percent Democrats, 38 percent Republicans and 18 percent DTS or other voters.
This is one of a number of competitive races in California this cycle. Roll Call rates it as Leans Democratic.
An internal poll that Rep. Ron Barber’s (D-Ariz.) campaign released today showed the incumbent has a solid lead over retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally as they head into the fall election.
Barber has the support of 53 percent of respondents, while 40 percent said they backed McSally. Both are their parties’ likely nominees.
July 30, 2012
Retired Air Force Colonel Martha McSally posted on her Facebook page over the weekend that “the entire AZ Republican Congressional delegation will host a meet and greet” for her Wednesday evening. She added that her campaign’s goal is to raise “another $315k” by Sept. 1.
“I arrived this evening in D.C for four days … [National Republican Congressional Committee] candidate school plus meetings with many people, members of Congress, and organizations,” she also wrote.
McSally is the presumptive GOP nominee to challenge Rep. Ron Barber (D) in the fall in the race for the new 2nd district.
Roll Call rates this race as Leans Democratic.
July 26, 2012
Update 11:00 a.m. | A Democratic poll released this morning found Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) well ahead of former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in a test of Hawaii’s likely general election Senate matchup.
Hirono led Lingle by 19 points in the poll, conducted by the Mellman Group on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It was released today, the same day that Hirono and former Rep. Ed Case will meet for their final debate before the Aug. 11 Democratic primary and as Hirono highlights her ability to work across the aisle on behalf of Hawaii’s interests. Full story
July 24, 2012
Members of Congress from Hawaii and Alaska have a history of bipartisan cooperation, and that was on full display today in the Hawaii Senate race.
Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) appeared in a 90-second web ad alongside Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) to endorse her for Hawaii’s open Senate seat. Hirono is facing former Rep. Ed Case in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary, the winner of which will take on former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in the general election.
July 23, 2012
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pushed back today against a poll conducted for Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong (R) that showed a close race with state Sen. Alan Lowenthal (D) for California’s Democratic-leaning 47th district. Full story
July 16, 2012
Rep. Connie Mack IV (R) has hired veteran Washington, D.C., fundraisers in an effort to bolster his Senate prospects, hoping to capitalize on recent polls that have shown him running competitive with Sen. Bill Nelson (D).
According to Republican sources, Mack, at the urging of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has hired well-known fundraiser Jim McCray to handle his national fundraising and has brought on Michael Gula and Jonathan Graham of Gula Graham to handle his political action committee fundraising. Among its other Congressional clients, the Gula Graham Group has long been been retained by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) to run his PAC fundraising. McCray, meanwhile, has worked on multiple GOP presidential campaigns. Full story