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April 19, 2014

Posts in "Leans Republican"

October 22, 2012

California: Crossroads GPS Helping Mary Bono Mack

Republican-aligned Crossroads GPS has added California’s GOP-held 36th district to its target list for television advertising spending over the final weeks of the campaign.

The group is spending a total of $2.2 million on TV this week across nine districts, part of an $8.1 million investment in 11 House races that it announced last week. The addition of Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s (R-Calif.) district increases that number to 12 and is further confirmation that the Palm Springs-based district is one of the top battlegrounds in the country.

Bono Mack is being challenged by physician Raul Ruiz (D).

Full story

October 20, 2012

Bill Clinton to Rally for Southern California House Candidates

Bill Clinton to Rally for Southern California House Candidates

Former President Bill Clinton introduces musician Bruce Springsteen as they campaign for President Barack Obama's reelection during an appearance at Cuyahoga Community College in Parma. Ohio. (Photo by Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

Bill Clinton will attend a Southern California rally on Tuesday to formally endorse Democratic Congressional candidates in a region fertile with pickup opportunities for the party.

The former president is scheduled to attend a “California’s Voice” afternoon rally at the University of California, Irvine, a serene, suburban Orange County campus between Los Angeles and San Diego. There he will endorse five candidates either challenging a Republican incumbent or running for an open seat. Full story

October 16, 2012

California: NRCC On the Air for Mary Bono Mack

California: NRCC On the Air for Mary Bono Mack

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The National Republican Congressional Committee hit the airwaves this week on behalf of California Rep. Mary Bono Mack.

It’s the committee’s first independent expenditure in this competitive race. The 36th district was not among either national party committee’s original TV reservations, but the race has now emerged as a battleground.

The NRCC ad ties physician Raul Ruiz to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Medicare cuts and job losses. “Raul Ruiz might be a doctor, but Nancy Pelosi is already writing his prescriptions,” the ad’s announcer says. Full story

October 15, 2012

California: Democratic Polls Offer the Party Good News

California: Democratic Polls Offer the Party Good News

Raul Ruiz, Democratic candidate for California's 36th district, speaks during his campaign rally in Palm Desert on Saturday. Ruiz is running to unseat GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Two internal Democratic polls released today offered the party good news in both defensive and offensive territory in California.

In the Palm Springs-based 36th district, the campaign of physician Raul Ruiz (D) released a poll that found him ahead of Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R), 46 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll also offered this encouraging sign: President Barack Obama led Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 5 points. Full story

October 11, 2012

Ohio: Charlie Wilson Responds With Own Poll in 6th District Race

Ohio: Charlie Wilson Responds With Own Poll in 6th District Race

Former Rep. Charlie Wilson (right) leads in a poll released by his campaign today. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Rep. Charlie Wilson’s (D) campaign released new internal polling numbers today showing him with a 6-point lead over freshman Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Wilson led Johnson 49 percent to 43 percent in the poll paid for by the Democrat’s campaign.

These numbers come one day after Republicans released their own late-September survey giving the Congressman an 8-point advantage over Wilson. Then again, a mid-September survey from Wilson’s campaign showed a tied race.

Is your head spinning yet? The two polls also paint different pictures of the presidential race in this conservative, coal country district in eastern Ohio:

Wilson’s recent poll showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, according to a campaign aide. Johnson’s poll gave Romney a larger lead, 53 percent to 39 percent.

In 2008, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would have won this redrawn 6th district with about 53 percent of the vote.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted Wilson’s poll of 500 likely general election voters Oct. 8-10. The margin of error is 4.4 points.

See Wilson’s full polling memo after the jump:

Full story

October 10, 2012

DCCC Cancels Three Big City Buys: Philly, Boston and Chicago

House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media buys.

The Philadelphia cancellation for Oct. 25-29 isn’t good news for two Democratic challengers running in districts covered by that pricey television market: Pennsylvania’s 8th district and New Jersey’s 3rd district.

The elimination comes just a week after the National Republican Congressional Committee cut its big buy in the Philadelphia market, too. It’s a sign these House races aren’t as competitive as party officials anticipate (Roll Call rates both as Leans Republican).

DCCC officials countered that challengers to GOP Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jon Runyan (N.J.) didn’t need the help.

Full story

Ohio: GOP Poll Gives Bill Johnson 8-Point Lead

Ohio: GOP Poll Gives Bill Johnson 8 Point Lead

A GOP poll showed Rep. Bill Johnson will an 8-point lead. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Bill Johnson (R) led former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) by 8 points in their rematch of the 2010 race, according to a GOP survey released today.

Johnson had 47 percent and Wilson had 39 percent in the survey paid for jointly by the freshman lawmaker and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The results counter Wilson’s own mid-September polling that showed a tied race. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

The 6th district race has become one of the most competitive House races in Ohio, next to the Member-vs.-Member race in the 16th district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dedicated additional resources to the 6th district race two weeks ago. Full story

October 8, 2012

Wisconsin: New GOP Poll Gives Sean Duffy an 11-Point Edge

Wisconsin: New GOP Poll Gives Sean Duffy an 11 Point Edge

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Republican survey showed freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) leading his challenger by 11 points.

Duffy had 51 percent of the vote, while former state Senate President Pro Tem Pat Kreitlow (D) had 40 percent in the poll paid for by American Action Network, a third-party, center-right group that spends heavily in House races.

The new numbers come less than a week after House Democrats announced they would increase their financial commitment to the 7th district. The survey’s accompanying memo aims to dispel that, declaring the district “not a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats.”

Full story

October 4, 2012

Mixed Bag of Polling for GOP Freshmen

Mixed Bag of Polling for GOP Freshmen

Rep. Jeff Denham's challenger released a poll today showing he had significantly cut into the Congressman's lead. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Many House Republican freshmen have competitive re-election campaigns on their hands, including a trio where fresh polling results this week made clear that some are far better off than others.

Freshman Reps. Scott Rigell (R-Va.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.) and Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) each garnered solid Democratic challengers, but a poll conducted for the Rigell campaign indicates he’s in the strongest position of the three to return to Congress next year. Full story

Race Rating Changes: House Map Jells; Senate Still Fluid

Race Rating Changes: House Map Jells; Senate Still Fluid

Vulnerable Rep. Bill Owens has improved prospects for re-election, as his race moves from a Tossup rating to Leans Democratic. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

What a difference two years makes. At this point in 2010, as the GOP wave began to build, political handicappers and political operatives alike were trying to keep up with the number of newly competitive races moving onto the rapidly expanding House battleground. The same was true at this time in 2006 and 2008, when we were attempting to size up the coming Democratic waves.

Fast-forward two years, and a month before Election Day we are taking House races off the board, as it becomes clear to both parties that contests they hoped to put in play just haven’t materialized this cycle. We expect there may be a few less competitive races that begin to move in the competitive direction, but that hasn’t happened to a large extent at this point.

There is other significant movement in a handful of House races that we now rate as more likely than not to switch hands. GOP Reps. David Rivera (Fla.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (N.Y.) are in races that look to be increasingly uphill. Both face rematches from 2010 (although Rivera’s troubles have much more to do with his own ethics problems than the strength of his Democratic challenger).

In Senate race moves, we are moving two Democratic-held seats virtually off the board. Republicans always knew that Hawaii was going to be a tough race considering the overwhelming Democratic tilt of the state. But former Gov. Linda Lingle was the best possible candidate they could have gotten. However, it’s clear that the race really never got off the ground. Lingle would have had to run a flawless campaign AND Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) needed to stumble. Neither happened, and the race is now off the board. Full story

Arizona: NRSC Buys Ad Space in Senate Race

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has purchased one week’s worth of statewide advertising for about $550,000 in Arizona to support the campaign of Rep. Jeff Flake (R). Recent polls have shown a narrowing margin between the Congressman and his Democratic rival, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.

Full story

October 3, 2012

Arizona: Richard Carmona Rakes In $2.2M in Third Quarter

Arizona: Richard Carmona Rakes In $2.2M in Third Quarter

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Senate nominee and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona raised $2.2 million in the third quarter, according to a campaign press release. The campaign of Carmona’s Republican rival, Rep. Jeff Flake, declined to release its numbers on Wednesday.

This new figure doubles Carmona’s second-quarter haul. The campaign was “still calculating” its cash-on-hand total at press time, but Carmona spent heavily on television for the month of September.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican. It is an open-seat race because Sen. Jon Kyl (R) is retiring.

NRCC Cuts $780,000 in Philadelphia Buys Aimed for Jon Runyan

NRCC Cuts $780,000 in Philadelphia Buys Aimed for Jon Runyan

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans cut $780,000 of ad reservations in the Philadelphia broadcast market today intended for Rep. Jon Runyan’s (R-N.J.) re-election, according to a Republican source familiar with the move.

The cancellation for Oct. 5-18 signals the National Republican Congressional Committee is confident Runyan will defeat attorney Shelley Adler (D) and believes that chunk of money is better spent in other races.

Full story

October 1, 2012

Illinois: Poll for David Gill Shows Single-Digit Race

The campaign of emergency room physician David Gill (D) released a poll Monday showing him in a dead heat with his opponent, Republican Rodney Davis, a former top aide to Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.).

Gill leads Davis, 40 percent to 39 percent, in a statistical dead heat. An independent candidate, John Hartman, receives 8 percent of the vote.

The 13th district in southern Illinois is competitive — especially so since Rep. Timothy Johnson (Ill.) suddenly announced his retirement after the GOP primary. In May, local Republican officials selected Davis to be their nominee instead.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

Gill’s campaign pollster, Victoria Research and Consulting, took the opinion of 400 likely voters Sept. 26-27. The margin of error is 4.9 points.

Arizona: DSCC Makes a Move in Race Between Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona

Arizona: DSCC Makes a Move in Race Between Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up with a $526,000 weeklong ad buy in support of Arizona Senate nominee Richard Carmona.

The money is set to cover this week only and is part of the first independent expenditure the committee has made in the race.

Carmona, a former surgeon general, faces Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in what has become a competitive race. The Washington Post first reported the news of the DSCC’s move.

Carmona has spent heavily on advertising in September in an effort to define himself in a positive light. According to a recent Carmona internal poll, he has narrowed the race’s margin.

But the next couple of weeks are crucial to the trajectory of this race. Early voting is only nine days away, and Flake just went up with negative advertising against Carmona. Outside groups are also expected to jump into the race to support Flake. Politicos are watching closely to see how Carmona holds up against the barrage.

Full story

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