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- Obama Returns to Vacation
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- Crist Wants to Campaign with Obama
Posts in "Leans Republican"
November 6, 2013
The candidate: Democratic National Committeewoman Erin Bilbray
The member: Two-term Rep. Joe Heck, a Republican, who won re-election by a 7-point margin last year.
The district: President Barack Obama carried the 3rd District by a single point in 2012.
The candidate’s team: Bradley Mayer (manager), Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group (pollster), Ann Liston of Adelstein | Liston (media), Achim Bergmann of Bergmann Zwerdling Direct (direct mail), Rhonda Foxx (finance director)
Democrat Erin Bilbray said she will seek support from former President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama in her campaign for 3rd District in the southern tip of Nevada.
“I hope [Clinton] will, and of course I would ask,” Bilbray said in an Oct. 10 interview with CQ Roll Call. She later added that she believes an endorsement from Obama would help her in the district. Full story
November 4, 2013
The candidate: Democrat Jennifer Garrison, former state lawmaker.
The member: Two-term Rep. Bill Johnson, a Republican from Ohio.
The state: In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried the district with 55 percent.
The candidate’s team: Charlie Hale (campaign manager), Mark Riddle (senior adviser), The Campaign Group (media consultant), Benenson Strategy Group (pollster), New Partners (research), New Blue Interactive (digital strategist)
Former state Rep. Jennifer Garrison said any campaign help from President Barack Obama would not help her chances of winning the 6th District in southeastern Ohio.
“Obama isn’t very popular in my part of the state, and I respect the office of the presidency of the United States,” Garrison said in an Oct. 8 interview with CQ Roll Call. “But I suspect that the president would not be campaigning for someone unless he thought that would be helpful, and in my case it probably would not.” Full story
October 3, 2013
Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh will run for Senate, providing Democrats with a key recruit for an open-seat race in a highly competitive state.
“Too many lawmakers back in Washington put their own agendas ahead of their responsibility to their constituents and to all Americans,” Walsh said in an advance statement obtained by the Associated Press.
August 13, 2013
Former Rep. Pat Williams, D-Mont., told Lee Newspapers on Monday that he strongly considered, but ultimately opted against, running for the Big Sky State’s open Senate seat.
Williams, who left Congress in 1997 after nine terms and would turn 77 before Election Day next year, said he’d been fielding calls urging him to run for three months — though he didn’t say whether any of them came from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Since former Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s surprise decision not to run, a few other prospective Democratic candidates have followed suit. The top names that remain in the recruitment mix include Lt. Gov. John Walsh and state Supreme Court Justice Brian Morris. Full story
July 9, 2013
Former South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds, a target of state and national conservatives, now officially has a hurdle in his path to the Republican Senate nomination.
Larry Rhoden, the state Senate majority whip, told the Sioux Falls Argus Leader that he intends to announce a Senate bid on Wednesday. He’s the first to step forward with a GOP primary challenge to Rounds, whose eight-year tenure in the governor’s office left activists on the right unhappy.
Rhoden told CQ Roll Call in March that he was considering running, though conservatives at that time were still awaiting word from GOP Rep. Kristi Noem. She has since declined to run, leaving activists still in search of an alternative. Full story
June 11, 2013
Republicans are now on track to avoid a costly, high-profile primary in the South Dakota Senate race next year.
Rep. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., announced Tuesday she will seek re-election rather than take on former Gov. Mike Rounds in the primary for the open seat. Her move clears a major hurdle in the GOP’s path to picking up the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson.
“I am grateful to everyone who has encouraged me and pledged support for a potential campaign for the U.S. Senate,” Noem said in a statement. “However, after spending the weekend discussing our future with Bryon and our children, we decided that right now we are in the best position to serve South Dakota as a member of the U.S. House.”
(See also in Roll Call: Search For Anti-Rounds Candidate Continues In South Dakota) Full story
October 22, 2012
Republican-aligned Crossroads GPS has added California’s GOP-held 36th district to its target list for television advertising spending over the final weeks of the campaign.
The group is spending a total of $2.2 million on TV this week across nine districts, part of an $8.1 million investment in 11 House races that it announced last week. The addition of Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s (R-Calif.) district increases that number to 12 and is further confirmation that the Palm Springs-based district is one of the top battlegrounds in the country.
Bono Mack is being challenged by physician Raul Ruiz (D).
October 20, 2012
Bill Clinton will attend a Southern California rally on Tuesday to formally endorse Democratic Congressional candidates in a region fertile with pickup opportunities for the party.
The former president is scheduled to attend a “California’s Voice” afternoon rally at the University of California, Irvine, a serene, suburban Orange County campus between Los Angeles and San Diego. There he will endorse five candidates either challenging a Republican incumbent or running for an open seat. Full story
October 16, 2012
The National Republican Congressional Committee hit the airwaves this week on behalf of California Rep. Mary Bono Mack.
It’s the committee’s first independent expenditure in this competitive race. The 36th district was not among either national party committee’s original TV reservations, but the race has now emerged as a battleground.
The NRCC ad ties physician Raul Ruiz to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Medicare cuts and job losses. “Raul Ruiz might be a doctor, but Nancy Pelosi is already writing his prescriptions,” the ad’s announcer says. Full story
October 15, 2012
Two internal Democratic polls released today offered the party good news in both defensive and offensive territory in California.
In the Palm Springs-based 36th district, the campaign of physician Raul Ruiz (D) released a poll that found him ahead of Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R), 46 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The poll also offered this encouraging sign: President Barack Obama led Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 5 points. Full story
October 11, 2012
Former Rep. Charlie Wilson’s (D) campaign released new internal polling numbers today showing him with a 6-point lead over freshman Rep. Bill Johnson (R).
Wilson led Johnson 49 percent to 43 percent in the poll paid for by the Democrat’s campaign.
These numbers come one day after Republicans released their own late-September survey giving the Congressman an 8-point advantage over Wilson. Then again, a mid-September survey from Wilson’s campaign showed a tied race.
Is your head spinning yet? The two polls also paint different pictures of the presidential race in this conservative, coal country district in eastern Ohio:
Wilson’s recent poll showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, according to a campaign aide. Johnson’s poll gave Romney a larger lead, 53 percent to 39 percent.
In 2008, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would have won this redrawn 6th district with about 53 percent of the vote.
Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted Wilson’s poll of 500 likely general election voters Oct. 8-10. The margin of error is 4.4 points.
See Wilson’s full polling memo after the jump:
October 10, 2012
House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media buys.
The Philadelphia cancellation for Oct. 25-29 isn’t good news for two Democratic challengers running in districts covered by that pricey television market: Pennsylvania’s 8th district and New Jersey’s 3rd district.
The elimination comes just a week after the National Republican Congressional Committee cut its big buy in the Philadelphia market, too. It’s a sign these House races aren’t as competitive as party officials anticipate (Roll Call rates both as Leans Republican).
DCCC officials countered that challengers to GOP Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jon Runyan (N.J.) didn’t need the help.
Rep. Bill Johnson (R) led former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) by 8 points in their rematch of the 2010 race, according to a GOP survey released today.
Johnson had 47 percent and Wilson had 39 percent in the survey paid for jointly by the freshman lawmaker and the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The results counter Wilson’s own mid-September polling that showed a tied race. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.
The 6th district race has become one of the most competitive House races in Ohio, next to the Member-vs.-Member race in the 16th district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dedicated additional resources to the 6th district race two weeks ago. Full story
October 8, 2012
A new Republican survey showed freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) leading his challenger by 11 points.
Duffy had 51 percent of the vote, while former state Senate President Pro Tem Pat Kreitlow (D) had 40 percent in the poll paid for by American Action Network, a third-party, center-right group that spends heavily in House races.
The new numbers come less than a week after House Democrats announced they would increase their financial commitment to the 7th district. The survey’s accompanying memo aims to dispel that, declaring the district “not a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats.”
October 4, 2012
Many House Republican freshmen have competitive re-election campaigns on their hands, including a trio where fresh polling results this week made clear that some are far better off than others.
Freshman Reps. Scott Rigell (R-Va.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.) and Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) each garnered solid Democratic challengers, but a poll conducted for the Rigell campaign indicates he’s in the strongest position of the three to return to Congress next year. Full story