Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
November 26, 2014

Posts in "Leans Republican"

October 10, 2012

DCCC Cancels Three Big City Buys: Philly, Boston and Chicago

House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media buys.

The Philadelphia cancellation for Oct. 25-29 isn’t good news for two Democratic challengers running in districts covered by that pricey television market: Pennsylvania’s 8th district and New Jersey’s 3rd district.

The elimination comes just a week after the National Republican Congressional Committee cut its big buy in the Philadelphia market, too. It’s a sign these House races aren’t as competitive as party officials anticipate (Roll Call rates both as Leans Republican).

DCCC officials countered that challengers to GOP Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jon Runyan (N.J.) didn’t need the help.

Full story

Ohio: GOP Poll Gives Bill Johnson 8-Point Lead

Ohio: GOP Poll Gives Bill Johnson 8 Point Lead

A GOP poll showed Rep. Bill Johnson will an 8-point lead. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Bill Johnson (R) led former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) by 8 points in their rematch of the 2010 race, according to a GOP survey released today.

Johnson had 47 percent and Wilson had 39 percent in the survey paid for jointly by the freshman lawmaker and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The results counter Wilson’s own mid-September polling that showed a tied race. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

The 6th district race has become one of the most competitive House races in Ohio, next to the Member-vs.-Member race in the 16th district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dedicated additional resources to the 6th district race two weeks ago. Full story

October 8, 2012

Wisconsin: New GOP Poll Gives Sean Duffy an 11-Point Edge

Wisconsin: New GOP Poll Gives Sean Duffy an 11 Point Edge

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new Republican survey showed freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) leading his challenger by 11 points.

Duffy had 51 percent of the vote, while former state Senate President Pro Tem Pat Kreitlow (D) had 40 percent in the poll paid for by American Action Network, a third-party, center-right group that spends heavily in House races.

The new numbers come less than a week after House Democrats announced they would increase their financial commitment to the 7th district. The survey’s accompanying memo aims to dispel that, declaring the district “not a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats.”

Full story

October 4, 2012

Mixed Bag of Polling for GOP Freshmen

Mixed Bag of Polling for GOP Freshmen

Rep. Jeff Denham's challenger released a poll today showing he had significantly cut into the Congressman's lead. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Many House Republican freshmen have competitive re-election campaigns on their hands, including a trio where fresh polling results this week made clear that some are far better off than others.

Freshman Reps. Scott Rigell (R-Va.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.) and Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) each garnered solid Democratic challengers, but a poll conducted for the Rigell campaign indicates he’s in the strongest position of the three to return to Congress next year. Full story

Race Rating Changes: House Map Jells; Senate Still Fluid

Race Rating Changes: House Map Jells; Senate Still Fluid

Vulnerable Rep. Bill Owens has improved prospects for re-election, as his race moves from a Tossup rating to Leans Democratic. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

What a difference two years makes. At this point in 2010, as the GOP wave began to build, political handicappers and political operatives alike were trying to keep up with the number of newly competitive races moving onto the rapidly expanding House battleground. The same was true at this time in 2006 and 2008, when we were attempting to size up the coming Democratic waves.

Fast-forward two years, and a month before Election Day we are taking House races off the board, as it becomes clear to both parties that contests they hoped to put in play just haven’t materialized this cycle. We expect there may be a few less competitive races that begin to move in the competitive direction, but that hasn’t happened to a large extent at this point.

There is other significant movement in a handful of House races that we now rate as more likely than not to switch hands. GOP Reps. David Rivera (Fla.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (N.Y.) are in races that look to be increasingly uphill. Both face rematches from 2010 (although Rivera’s troubles have much more to do with his own ethics problems than the strength of his Democratic challenger).

In Senate race moves, we are moving two Democratic-held seats virtually off the board. Republicans always knew that Hawaii was going to be a tough race considering the overwhelming Democratic tilt of the state. But former Gov. Linda Lingle was the best possible candidate they could have gotten. However, it’s clear that the race really never got off the ground. Lingle would have had to run a flawless campaign AND Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) needed to stumble. Neither happened, and the race is now off the board. Full story

Arizona: NRSC Buys Ad Space in Senate Race

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has purchased one week’s worth of statewide advertising for about $550,000 in Arizona to support the campaign of Rep. Jeff Flake (R). Recent polls have shown a narrowing margin between the Congressman and his Democratic rival, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.

Full story

October 3, 2012

Arizona: Richard Carmona Rakes In $2.2M in Third Quarter

Arizona: Richard Carmona Rakes In $2.2M in Third Quarter

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Senate nominee and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona raised $2.2 million in the third quarter, according to a campaign press release. The campaign of Carmona’s Republican rival, Rep. Jeff Flake, declined to release its numbers on Wednesday.

This new figure doubles Carmona’s second-quarter haul. The campaign was “still calculating” its cash-on-hand total at press time, but Carmona spent heavily on television for the month of September.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican. It is an open-seat race because Sen. Jon Kyl (R) is retiring.

NRCC Cuts $780,000 in Philadelphia Buys Aimed for Jon Runyan

NRCC Cuts $780,000 in Philadelphia Buys Aimed for Jon Runyan

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Republicans cut $780,000 of ad reservations in the Philadelphia broadcast market today intended for Rep. Jon Runyan’s (R-N.J.) re-election, according to a Republican source familiar with the move.

The cancellation for Oct. 5-18 signals the National Republican Congressional Committee is confident Runyan will defeat attorney Shelley Adler (D) and believes that chunk of money is better spent in other races.

Full story

October 1, 2012

Illinois: Poll for David Gill Shows Single-Digit Race

The campaign of emergency room physician David Gill (D) released a poll Monday showing him in a dead heat with his opponent, Republican Rodney Davis, a former top aide to Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.).

Gill leads Davis, 40 percent to 39 percent, in a statistical dead heat. An independent candidate, John Hartman, receives 8 percent of the vote.

The 13th district in southern Illinois is competitive — especially so since Rep. Timothy Johnson (Ill.) suddenly announced his retirement after the GOP primary. In May, local Republican officials selected Davis to be their nominee instead.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

Gill’s campaign pollster, Victoria Research and Consulting, took the opinion of 400 likely voters Sept. 26-27. The margin of error is 4.9 points.

Arizona: DSCC Makes a Move in Race Between Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona

Arizona: DSCC Makes a Move in Race Between Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up with a $526,000 weeklong ad buy in support of Arizona Senate nominee Richard Carmona.

The money is set to cover this week only and is part of the first independent expenditure the committee has made in the race.

Carmona, a former surgeon general, faces Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in what has become a competitive race. The Washington Post first reported the news of the DSCC’s move.

Carmona has spent heavily on advertising in September in an effort to define himself in a positive light. According to a recent Carmona internal poll, he has narrowed the race’s margin.

But the next couple of weeks are crucial to the trajectory of this race. Early voting is only nine days away, and Flake just went up with negative advertising against Carmona. Outside groups are also expected to jump into the race to support Flake. Politicos are watching closely to see how Carmona holds up against the barrage.

Full story

September 27, 2012

Dueling Internal Polls in Iowa and Pennsylvania House Races

Dueling Internal Polls in Iowa and Pennsylvania House Races

A Democratic poll showed Rep. Steve King in a competitive race in Iowa. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

‘Tis the season for dueling internal polls.

In Iowa, former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack (D) released a survey today showing her trailing Rep. Steve King (R) by 2 points in the first public poll of this race in several weeks.

A few hours later, the conservative group American Future Fund put out a poll showing King ahead by several points, 48 percent to 41 percent. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican. Full story

September 26, 2012

Arizona: Richard Carmona Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat in Senate Race

Arizona: Richard Carmona Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat in Senate Race

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new internal poll released Tuesday night by the Senate campaign of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona showed the Arizona race to be in a statistical tie. Rep. Jeff Flake is the Republican nominee and has, until recent weeks, been considered a likely bet to replace retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R).

Flake led Carmona by 1 point in the poll. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they backed Flake, while 43 percent backed Carmona. Three percent said they supported a libertarian candidate.

Flake and Carmona have net positive ratings. Thirty-eight percent of respondents had a favorable impression of Flake, while 32 percent had an unfavorable impression of him. As for Carmona, 34 percent viewed him positively, while 15 percent had a negative view of him.

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Lizst Research from Sept. 18-23. The live-interview survey included 600 likely voters. The margin of error was 4 points.

September 25, 2012

Wisconsin: SEIU Backs Off 8th District

The Service Employees International Union has canceled a previously scheduled television ad buy in support of businessman Jamie Wall’s (D) challenge of Rep. Reid Ribble (R).

Roll Call has learned from a source monitoring Wisconsin advertising markets that the union will no longer follow through with its approximately $130,000 reservation in the Green Bay media market, which covers the 8th district. But the same source noted that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is still scheduled to go on television in Green Bay on Oct. 9.

The House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, had previously canceled a $130,000 television ad-buy reservation in mid-September.

Full story

Iowa: New DCCC Poll Shows Leonard Boswell, Tom Latham Tied

Iowa: New DCCC Poll Shows Leonard Boswell, Tom Latham Tied

A new poll out today showed Rep. Leonard Boswell (above) tied with Rep. Tom Latham in the race for Iowa's 3rd district. (Tom Williams CQ/Roll Call File Photo)

A new Democratic poll shows Reps. Leonard Boswell (D) and Tom Latham (R) tied in their race for Iowa’s redrawn 3rd district.

Both Members earned 45 percent in the survey paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and released today.

Earlier this cycle, local operatives wrote Boswell off because of Latham’s hefty cash advantage. But the race has become increasingly competitive in recent months, much like every other House race in the Hawkeye State.

The poll had the race as a dead heat, even though respondents viewed Latham in a more positive light. Thirty-nine percent viewed Latham favorably, while only 34 percent viewed Boswell favorably.

In the same poll, President Barack Obama leads GOP nominee Mitt Romney, 52 percent to 45 percent.

The Benenson Strategy Group poll interviewed 400 likely voters in the district from Sept. 18- 20. The margin of error was 4.9 percent.

Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

September 21, 2012

California: House Majority PAC Targets Jeff Denham

California: House Majority PAC Targets Jeff Denham

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

House Majority PAC, a Democratic-aligned group, is going on the air in California’s 10th district against freshman Republican Rep. Jeff Denham.

The group is launching a Medicare-themed television ad that targets “Denham’s plan” for Medicare and states that his Democratic opponent, astronaut Jose Hernandez, would strengthen the program. The ad hits the Sacramento airwaves Saturday and will run for a week and a half behind a six-figure independent expenditure. Full story

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