- Both Parties Brace for Obama Immigration Decision
- Iowa Lawmaker Guilty of Receiving Illegal Payments
- The ISIS Economy
- Walker Holds Edge in Wisconsin
- Deadlocked in Iowa
Posts in "Likely Democratic"
March 27, 2014
Rep. Gary Peters, D-Mich., locked in an increasingly competitive race for Senate, will debut his first television spot this week during two Wolverine State college basketball games.
Peters’ first spot will air Friday as fans settle in to watch the games featuring Michigan State University and the University of Michigan — two teams that have made it to the Sweet 16 round of the March Madness college tournament. (The Spartans play No. 1 ranked Virginia, while the Wolverines face off against surprise challenger Tennessee.)
Peters will most likely face former Secretary of State Terry Lynn Land this November. Public polling shows the race for retiring Democratic Sen. Carl Levin’s seat to be close, but Peters has held a lead of a few digits.
The Democrat’s campaign will air two spots — a 30-second ad and a 60-second version — over a seven-week period as part of a seven-figure buy, according to the Peters campaign. Full story
March 24, 2014
Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown has been touring New Hampshire relentlessly since announcing earlier this month he is moving toward a challenge to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen — and his operation is now beginning to take shape.
A Republican source close to Brown said he will likely begin announcing full-time staff for his exploratory committee next week, with Andy Leach remaining senior adviser. A team of allies has helped Brown get a campaign off the ground, including Eric Fehrnstrom, a former Brown and Mitt Romney adviser who toured with Brown over the weekend.
Less than two weeks since entering the race, Brown is still ingratiating himself with the state he’s lived in since December. He’s fighting to prove his Granite State bonafides with an electorate largely aware of his representation of the Bay State in the Senate.
January 27, 2014
Updated 3:45 p.m. | Former Virginia Sen. John Warner is crossing party lines to support Democratic Sen. Mark Warner’s re-election campaign this year.
Warner, a former five-term Republican senator, told the Associated Press on Monday he is backing his successor in the Senate over former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie.
Speaking later with CQ Roll Call, John Warner said he encouraged Mark Warner to seek re-election, citing the state’s need for seniority in the Senate.
“I’m not jumping my traces,” John Warner said. “I’m just exercising what I think is a responsible judgment, because Mark Warner is gaining seniority and stature, and has a proven ability to cross the aisle and make things happen.”
The two Warners faced off in a 1996 Senate race, with the incumbent holding on by a 5-point margin. After the loss, Mark Warner went on to win a term as governor in 2001, before running again for the Senate seat of the retiring John Warner.
This is the second time this cycle the former Republican senator has backed a Democratic Senate candidate. Warner contributed to the campaign of Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn, who is running for an open seat in Georgia. Full story
December 3, 2013
Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown will headline the New Hampshire GOP’s holiday party later this month, fueling more speculation about his political aspirations in the Granite State.
The Tuesday announcement from the state party comes as Brown gives serious consideration to challenging Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., after losing his Senate seat in the neighboring Bay State just one year ago.
Brown, who recently donated $10,000 to the state party, will speak at the Dec. 19 event. Tickets to the event cost $50.
“Senator Brown is an outstanding leader and a strong voice for fiscally responsible policies,” New Hampshire GOP Chairwoman Jennifer Horn said in a statement. “He has been a tremendous supporter of our party and we are grateful that he continues to help us raise the resources we need to win in 2014.” Full story
November 8, 2013
The Boston Globe reported Friday that national Republicans are actively recruiting former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown to run again — this time in New Hampshire.
With former Rep. Charles Bass the latest Republican to take a pass on the Senate race, the party is still in search of a top-tier challenger to take on Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran told the Globe that despite the speculation that Brown is simply flirting with a bid, he doesn’t think the former senator “is just fooling around.”
Of course, a successful Brown Senate bid would be nearly unprecedented. Just two senators have ever represented more than one state in the Senate, and it hasn’t happened since the 1870s, according to a list maintained by the Senate Historical Office.
“It will be uphill, no question about it, for him,” former Rep. Jeb Bradley, who also took a pass on this race, told CQ Roll Call. “But I think he’s certainly got as good a chance as any Republican that I can think of to be successful.”
New Hampshire’s other senator echoed that sentiment, believing that Brown would help expand the Senate landscape into New England. Full story
September 3, 2013
Former Rep. Jeb Bradley, R-N.H., told New Hampshire’s WMUR-TV that he will not run for statewide office next year, removing one of the party’s top potential Senate candidates.
Bradley, now the state Senate majority leader, cited family health issues for his decision. He would have been the favorite in a GOP primary for Senate. Some Republican insiders had said in recent weeks that Bradley might opt for a gubernatorial bid, but he made clear Tuesday that he was not interested in either the governor’s mansion or the Senate.
The announcement leaves former state Sen. Jim Rubens and conservative activist Karen Testerman as likely candidates to take on Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is running for a second term.
Republicans also are eyeing a third candidate for the race: Dan Innis, dean of the business and economics school at the University of New Hampshire. Innis, who is gay and married, also owns the Ale House Inn in Portsmouth. Full story
June 25, 2013
After more than 36 years representing Massachusetts in the House, Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey will be the commonwealth’s next senator.
Backed by millions of dollars in air and ground support from national Democrats, the eighth-longest-tenured House member succeeded in holding the seat of Democrat John Kerry, who resigned to become secretary of State earlier this year.
In Tuesday’s special election, The Associated Press called the race for Markey with 82 percent of precincts reporting. At that point, Markey led Republican Gabriel Gomez, 54 percent to 45 percent. Full story
There’s no telling whether the Boston Bruins’ stunning loss in the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday night will further depress turnout in Tuesday’s Senate special election, but experts have already predicted a record low number of voters will go to the polls.
Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin said at a press conference on Monday that he expects about 1.6 million voters to participate in the race between Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey and the Republican nominee, Gabriel Gomez. Polls opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 8 p.m.
(See also in Roll Call: Gomez Loss Would Bump Bay State Off GOP’s Map)
The 37 percent turnout projection is based on the hot weather, the relatively few number of calls to the state election office and hits on its website, and the fact that only 64,000 absentee ballots were requested. Galvin’s projection for the April 30 primaries turned out to be too high, according to spokesman Brian McNiff. Full story
June 21, 2013
Former Sen. Scott P. Brown, who lost a bid for a full term in November, will make his first appearance on the Massachusetts special-election campaign trail June 24. But a day before the election, the race will likely look more like his November 2012 loss than his January 2010 upset.
Republican nominee Gabriel Gomez’s team remains optimistic based on a solid Tuesday debate performance and a recent internal poll that showed him within striking distance of Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass. Plus, turnout is unpredictable in any special election.
But even if Gomez is still down just 7 points internally, public polls released this week don’t offer any evidence of a surge of support like the one that lifted Brown to a 5-point special-election victory on Jan. 19, 2010:
June 17, 2013
With a new poll showing Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., pulling away, yet another outside group spot is hitting GOP nominee Gabriel Gomez in the Massachusetts Senate special election.
The new Senate Majority PAC advertisement, released on Monday, ties Gomez to Mitt Romney, the former Bay State governor and presidential nominee whose business background was tarnished in early 2012 ads. The ad is part of a $1 million media buy from the group, contributing to the overwhelming spending advantage Markey and his Democratic allies enjoy in this race.
June 14, 2013
The first Republican-aligned super PAC to hit the TV airwaves in the Massachusetts Senate special election released its two advertisements Thursday evening.
The Americans for Progressive Action ads are part of a reported $700,000 media buy on behalf of Republican Gabriel Gomez, who is being thoroughly outspent by Rep. Edward J. Markey and his Democratic allies.
The ads are similar, mention both candidates and attempt to contrast the two opponents. But their themes are quite different — one hits Markey for allegedly distorting facts about Gomez, while the other is critical of Markey’s vote to give the Internal Revenue Service a role in implementing the health care overhaul.
Watch “Truth and Honor” here:
Watch “Enforce” here: Full story
June 12, 2013
While no national GOP-aligned outside groups have spent so far in the race, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has definitively decided it won’t expend any resources on the Massachusetts Senate special election.
“The Chamber has not engaged in the MA senate race and does not have any plans to do so,” Chamber spokeswoman Blair Latoff Holmes said in an email to CQ Roll Call. Full story
June 7, 2013
In the party’s first major television foray into the competitive June 25 Massachusetts Senate special election, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC released ads Friday in an effort to define Gabriel Gomez as an ordinary Republican.
That’s the ultimate goal for the party in this Democratic-leaning state. And the two ads released Friday by the national Democratic groups specifically target seniors — potential high-propensity voters even in odd-timed elections. Neither ad mentions Rep. Edward J. Markey, the Democratic nominee, preferring instead to accuse Gomez of supporting cutting Medicare and raising the retirement age.
According to a Republican source tracking ad buys, the DSCC has purchased $751,000 in TV time through June 25 and Senate Majority PAC $448,000 through June 17. Full story
June 5, 2013
The League of Conservation Voters launched a direct-mail program Wednesday to assist Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey in the Massachusetts special election for Senate.
With just three weeks left, the group announced it is spending almost $400,000 to highlight Markey’s leadership on environmental issues and the positions of Republican nominee Gabriel Gomez — which the LCV labels as “extreme.”
The first mail piece lands at homes this week. The glossy paper states that “no one has fought harder than Ed Markey” for clean-energy jobs and reducing the dependence on foreign oil. It also hits Gomez as a “Wall Street insider” and accuses him of being “in the pocket of Big Oil.” Full story
February 1, 2013
Former state Sen. Richard Tisei and state Rep. Dan Winslow, both Republicans, floated the possibility that they might run for Senate in Massachusetts on the heels of former Sen. Scott P. Brown’s announcement that he will not run in the special election to succeed Secretary of State John Kerry.
Without Brown, the Republican bench in Massachusetts is thin, with no obvious candidate for a statewide bid.
“I will reflect this weekend about my own family’s needs and whether there is room in the national Republican Party for a member who is both fiscally prudent and socially tolerant,” Winslow, an attorney and former chief counsel to Brown and ex-Gov. Mitt Romney, said in a statement.
Tisei, who lost a hard-fought race against Democratic Rep. John F. Tierney in November, said he was evaluating the race.
“[I]n the coming days, I will be talking with family, friends, and supporters to consider the best role that I can play in helping to bring new, alternative leadership to Washington,” he said in a statement.
Democratic Reps. Stephen F. Lynch and Edward J. Markey are battling for the Democratic nomination. The general election will be held June 25. CQ Roll Call rates the Massachusetts Senate special election as Likely Democratic.