Kentucky: DSCC Hits McConnell on Radio in First Spot of Cycle

Democrats are targeting McConnell. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A day after actress Ashley Judd declined to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Democrats went up with a week-long radio advertisement Thursday attacking the Kentucky Republican.

The basketball themed, 60-second radio spot marks the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s first campaign advertisement of the 2014 cycle. A DSCC aide declined to go into detail about the exact size of the buy but said it cost “five figures or more.”

Democrats face an uphill battle in the Bluegrass State, which has consistently voted for Republicans for federal office in recent cycles. What’s more, McConnell — and his $7.4 million campaign war chest — is known for his brutal campaigns. Despite this, the Kentucky race remains one of Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat in 2014.

Several local Democrats, plus Judd, have declined to challenge McConnell. However, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes has reportedly spoken with the DSCC about running and, according to a local television station WHAS, could file exploratory committee paperwork as early as next week.

The DSCC could be using this spot to show Grimes they are willing to support her if she enters the race:

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Kentucky: Judd Makes Rare Reference to Senate Race in Speech

Judd might run for Senate in Kentucky. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated: 4:29 p.m. | Actress Ashley Judd made a few rare references to her possible bid to challenge Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., during a speech in Cincinnati on Friday.

According to local FOX affiliate WXIX-TV, Judd mentioned the sizable campaign war chest that McConnell is expected to leverage during his re-election campaign next year. At a speech to the American Counseling Association, Judd joked that her mother, country singer Naomi Judd, wants to turn her garage into a campaign headquarters, according to the local report. Full story

South Carolina: Elizabeth Colbert Busch Wins Democratic Primary

Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert, won the Democratic nomination for South Carolina’s open 1st District on Tuesday, easily beating frequent candidate Ben Frasier in a special-election primary.

Colbert has, so far, run a solid campaign, with significant fundraising and slick television ads. In her first spot, she shared her résumé — director of sales and marketing at a shipping company, director of business development at a former naval shipyard in North Charleston — and hammered home the message that she knew how to create jobs.

What went unmentioned was her political affiliation, which will be her biggest hurdle to coming to Congress. The comfortably Republican district voted 62 percent for then-Rep. Tim Scott in November 2012. After his appointment to the Senate, the seat became vacant, setting up this special election.

One Colbert Busch aide told CQ Roll Call that the general election campaign would be, more or less, “a nonpartisan attack on business as usual in Washington.”

Colbert Busch will face the winner of a Republican runoff on April 2.

The general election is May 7. CQ Roll Call rates the race as Likely Republican.

Inside the 2014 Senate Races

Roll Call’s initial Senate ratings outlook projects a potentially bullish cycle for Republicans, with an opportunity to recapture the majority for the first time in eight years.

But that’s exactly how things looked two years before the 2012 elections, when Democrats surprised many with victories in Missouri and North Dakota on their way to picking up two seats. So the challenge for the GOP and incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas is to capitalize on their opportunities.

That and how voters feel about President Barack Obama in 2014 could determine how the parties fare at the ballot box less than two years from now. Democrats won their current majority in 2006, in the second midterm election under President George W. Bush.

Republicans are hoping Obama’s second midterm is similarly kind to them, if not equal to the president’s 2010 midterm shellacking, when the GOP won seven seats (and control of the House) despite beginning the cycle as the underdog.

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Race Rating Changes: The Final Push

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listen Sunday during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. With two days before Election Day, Romney is campaigning in swing states across the country. (Emmanuel Dunando/AFP/Getty Images)

Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.

First, the Senate math:

Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.

Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story

Oklahoma House Candidate to Deliver GOP Address

Markwayne Mullin, the GOP candidate running to fill the open seat in Oklahoma’s 2nd district, will deliver the weekly Republican address Saturday.

The businessman and rancher was formally tapped today by Speaker John Boehner (Ohio). He’s the second Congressional hopeful Boehner has selected to give the weekly address this cycle — the other in late September was Vernon Parker, the candidate in Arizona’s 9th district.

“Small businesses continue to struggle in this weak economy, and all the taxing, spending and red tape coming from the Obama administration is only making things worse,” Boehner said in a statement. “Markwayne Mullin has run a business and created jobs, and he understands the need to shut down the jobs-destroying red tape factory in Washington, D.C.”

“If elected,” Boehner continued, “I know he’ll be a strong voice in the House for a smaller, more accountable and less costly government.” Full story

Race Ratings Changes: Less Than One Month to Go

Rep. Dan Benishek increasingly looks like he won't return for the 113th Congress. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

One year ago it would have been hard to picture both the Arizona and Connecticut open-seat Senate races as Tossups with less than a month to go before Election Day. But funny things can happen to the Senate battleground map based on candidates and the campaigns they run — just ask Republicans this cycle about Missouri.

The open-seat Senate races in the Nutmeg State and the Grand Canyon State are thousands of miles apart, yet share some distinct similarities. Both feature House Members who began the race as the heavy frontrunner and challengers who have surged based on the strength of their campaigns. Those challengers will still have to overcome a heavy partisan disadvantage at the presidential level, but that prospect seems to be increasingly possible. Therefore, we are moving both races into the tossup column, even though in both races, the party that currently holds the seat still has a very small advantage. Full story

DCCC Cancels Three Big City Buys: Philly, Boston and Chicago

House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media buys.

The Philadelphia cancellation for Oct. 25-29 isn’t good news for two Democratic challengers running in districts covered by that pricey television market: Pennsylvania’s 8th district and New Jersey’s 3rd district.

The elimination comes just a week after the National Republican Congressional Committee cut its big buy in the Philadelphia market, too. It’s a sign these House races aren’t as competitive as party officials anticipate (Roll Call rates both as Leans Republican).

DCCC officials countered that challengers to GOP Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Jon Runyan (N.J.) didn’t need the help.

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Race Rating Changes: House Map Jells; Senate Still Fluid

Vulnerable Rep. Bill Owens has improved prospects for re-election, as his race moves from a Tossup rating to Leans Democratic. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

What a difference two years makes. At this point in 2010, as the GOP wave began to build, political handicappers and political operatives alike were trying to keep up with the number of newly competitive races moving onto the rapidly expanding House battleground. The same was true at this time in 2006 and 2008, when we were attempting to size up the coming Democratic waves.

Fast-forward two years, and a month before Election Day we are taking House races off the board, as it becomes clear to both parties that contests they hoped to put in play just haven’t materialized this cycle. We expect there may be a few less competitive races that begin to move in the competitive direction, but that hasn’t happened to a large extent at this point.

There is other significant movement in a handful of House races that we now rate as more likely than not to switch hands. GOP Reps. David Rivera (Fla.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (N.Y.) are in races that look to be increasingly uphill. Both face rematches from 2010 (although Rivera’s troubles have much more to do with his own ethics problems than the strength of his Democratic challenger).

In Senate race moves, we are moving two Democratic-held seats virtually off the board. Republicans always knew that Hawaii was going to be a tough race considering the overwhelming Democratic tilt of the state. But former Gov. Linda Lingle was the best possible candidate they could have gotten. However, it’s clear that the race really never got off the ground. Lingle would have had to run a flawless campaign AND Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) needed to stumble. Neither happened, and the race is now off the board. Full story

Race Ratings Changes: Indiana Senate Moves to Tossup; Mix of House Moves

Rep. Leonard Boswell has been helped by spending from outside groups in his Iowa race. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

This is arguably the most volatile period for the House battleground map, as partisan operatives are making their final ad spending decisions and beginning to move money away from some races to put more resources into other contests.

The Senate map is much less fluid, yet this is the time when some races begin to fade in terms of their competitiveness and others become more so. In recent weeks we’ve seen the New Mexico Senate contest move to the less competitive category, while Connecticut and Indiana are now fully in play. We are still monitoring developments in Connecticut (and could make another ratings change there soon), but new polling in Indiana confirmed for us that a ratings change was due. Full story

Nebraska: Deb Fischer, Bob Kerrey Commit to Third Debate

State Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) have agreed to a third debate, according to the Associated Press.

The debate will take place on Oct. 1 and will air statewide on public television, radio and online.

The pair have squared off once before. The Omaha Chamber of Commerce will host the second debate on Sept. 28 in Omaha; it will be broadcast on an affiliate the following Sunday.

Roll Call rates this race as Likely Republican.

Michigan: Nancy Cassis Will Not Support Kerry Bentivolio if He Is Nominee

NOVI, Mich. — Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis will not support her primary opponent if he wins the 11th district Republican nomination next week.

“Not after what I’ve seen,” she told Roll Call over a late breakfast at Big Boy restaurant last week. “I couldn’t in good conscience.”

Cassis is running a write-in campaign to defeat Kerry Bentivolio, an Iraq veteran and reindeer rancher who is the only Republican on the Aug. 7 primary ballot. They are running in the 11th district in the suburbs and exurbs west of Detroit.

Former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) prompted the divisive primary earlier this summer when he filed faulty ballot petitions and did not have enough signatures to make the ballot. A few weeks later, McCotter resigned from Congress. Full story

Michigan: Nancy Cassis Banks Second Congressional Endorsement

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) backed former state Sen. Nancy Cassis (R) in the 11th district Monday, marking the write-in candidate’s second Congressional endorsement.

Cassis faces an uphill climb to defeat reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio, the only Republican on the Aug. 7 primary ballot.

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Michigan: Freshman Justin Amash Backs Kerry Bentivolio

Reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio (R) picked up the backing of freshman Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) today in the primary race in the 11th district.

“Having spent time with Kerry over the last few weeks and having listened to his vision for our country, I believe that Kerry is someone we can count on to do what’s right, not just what’s easy,” Amash said in a statement released by Bentivolio’s campaign.

The endorsement comes one day after Bentivolio’s campaign announced it was on the air with a TV ad. It’s yet another sign the once-unknown Republican aims to run a competitive race for the GOP primary against former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a write-in candidate.

Earlier this month, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) dropped his re-election bid after his campaign submitted ballot petitions filled with errors and duplicate names. Bentivolio was then the only Republican left on the party’s ballot, but local GOP officials started searching for a new write-in candidate to support in the Aug. 7 primary.

Michigan GOP officials settled on Cassis, who sources say plans to put $200,000 of her own money into the race.

Minnesota: Michele Bachmann Opponent’s Poll Shows Competitive Race

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A newly released Democratic poll shows Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) could face a competitive race in November, although there is little other evidence at this point that she is in danger.

Bachmann led businessman Jim Graves (D) 48 percent to 43 percent, according to a survey paid for by the likely Democratic Farmer Labor nominee’s campaign. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.

The survey marks the first public indication that the 6th district race could be competitive. Democrats unsuccessfully targeted Bachmann in the 2008 cycle, but they argue the Congresswoman is more vulnerable than ever following her failed presidential bid. Full story