Race Rating Changes: The Final Push

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listen Sunday during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. With two days before Election Day, Romney is campaigning in swing states across the country. (Emmanuel Dunando/AFP/Getty Images)

Heading into the final weekend of barnstorming before Election Day, there was a noticeable shift toward the GOP in many key House races while Democrats seem to be getting more good news than bad about the Senate map.

First, the Senate math:

Yes, it’s quite possible (even likely) that Democrats such as Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bob Casey (Pa.) will have closer margins on Election Day than most expect. But Democrats are likely to hold both seats, and the climb for Republicans to net the four seats they need for an outright majority (if President Barack Obama is re-elected) seems steep heading into election week.

Here’s what we know: Republicans are likely to pick up two Senate seats in Nebraska and North Dakota (although the race there remains close). Those gains are likely to be offset by Democratic pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where an Independent is poised to win and will likely caucus with Democrats. Assuming Republicans hold their seats in Arizona and Nevada, which seems like a good bet, that’s a zero net gain, leaving the chamber’s makeup at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. Full story

Indiana: Howey Poll Gives Donnelly Big Edge Over Mourdock

Rep. Joe Donnelly led Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) led state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) by 11 points in the latest bipartisan survey from Howey Politics Indiana.

Donnelly garnered 47 percent of the vote, while Mourdock had 36 percent in the survey.  A libertarian candidate, Andrew Horning, picked up 6 percent, and 11 percent of voters were undecided.

The new poll comes 10 days after Mourdock’s controversial remark in the candidates’ final debate that pregnancy from rape is something “God intended.” In this new survey, 87 percent of respondents were familiar with that remark.

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Utah: Matheson Trails Love in New Poll

Utah Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson trails Republican challenger Mia Love in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love could be pulling away from Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in the race for Utah’s 4th district.

Love led Matheson by 12 points, 52 percent to 40 percent, in a new poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune. Just 9 percent of Republicans surveyed backed Matheson, which is not enough in a district Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is expected to carry with ease.

However, the Matheson campaign released a poll Thursday night — just hours ahead of the Tribune poll’s release — that showed him ahead by 2 points.

These two polls can’t both be right, but both national parties have been spending here as if the race is close. Full story

Virginia: Mitt Romney, George Allen Rally GOP Faithful

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets the crowd at a campaign stop at the Farm Bureau Center in Doswell, Va. Romney was joined on the stump by Republican Senate candidate George Allen, who is locked in a tight race with Democrat Tim Kaine. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

DOSWELL, Va. — Presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Senate candidate George Allen rallied the GOP faithful today to begin a final joint push across this crucial battleground state.

In the second event of a three-stop tour, several hundred supporters donning stickers for Romney, Allen and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) crowded into the expansive Farm Bureau Center outside Richmond to hear the nominees for president and Senate. Full story

Rape Comment Forces John Koster Into Damage Control

Former state Rep. John Koster has been in damage control mode. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

In this election, some candidates have made unguarded comments at off-the-record fundraisers, while others have drawn fire for impolitic comments about women and rape.

Former state Rep. John Koster (R) has managed to do both. Koster, who remains closely tied with Democrat Suzan DelBene in Washington State’s 1st district, has been in damage control mode since Wednesday, when a progressive group released a secretly recorded audiotape of him saying that “the rape thing” does not justify abortion.

In the audiotape, posted on YouTube by the progressive group Fuse Washington, Koster responds to an unseen questioner who asks him: “Is there any time that you would agree with abortion?”

Koster’s reply includes the comment: “On the rape thing, it’s like: How does putting more violence onto a woman’s body and taking the life of an innocent child that’s the consequence of this crime – how does that make it better?”

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Indiana: American Bridge Sends Talking Richard Mourdock Mailers

Some Hoosier voters will hear state Treasurer Richard Mourdock’s voice in their mailbox this week.

American Bridge strikes again with a talking mail piece, and this time it features the GOP Senate nominee’s controversial comment from last week’s debate that pregnancy from rape is “something God intended to happen.”

The Indiana Senate race between Mourdock and Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) is one of the most competitive in the country. Roll Call rates it as a Tossup.

The $30,000 mail buy will target independent voters, according to an aide from the Democratic group. Here’s a demonstration from American Bridge:

American Bridge issued a similar talking mailer in the Missouri Senate race that quoted Rep. Todd Akin’s (R)  “legitimate rape” comment.

Indiana: Dueling Internal Polls Show Different Races

Rep. Joe Donnelly is running for Senate in Indiana. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

What’s the effect of state Treasurer Richard Mourdock’s (R) week-old debate comment that pregnancy from rape is something “God intended”?

Depends on whom you ask.

Today, Mourdock’s campaign released a second poll showing his race versus Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) as a statistical tie. His own campaign survey showed Mourdock leading Donnelly, 45 percent to 44 percent.

It’s safe to say, Donnelly’s team sees the race differently. His campaign released its own survey today that showed him leading Mourdock, 43 to 36 percent, among 600 likely voters.

Either way, the race for Indiana’s Senate seat remains highly competitive. Roll Call rates it as a Tossup.

Mourdock’s pollster, John McLaughlin and Associates, conducted his campaign poll Oct. 29-30. Donnelly’s pollster, Global Strategy Group, conducted his campaign poll Oct. 28-30.

Both surveys interviewed 600 likely voters and had a margins of error of 4 points.

Changed Politics and District Haunt Judy Biggert in Illinois

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

LEMONT, Ill. — Rep. Judy Biggert built a reputation as a genteel Republican willing to work across the aisle during her 14 years in Congress.

But politics has changed, and Biggert has not.

“The last time I went to the Civility Caucus, there were three people there: the two co-chairs and me,”  Biggert recalled to a roundtable of local business leaders last week.

Today, one of those co-chairmen is the head of the organization that has already spent $1.35 million to defeat her next week: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.).

Biggert has never faced a race like this — and it shows. Now there’s a good chance her hesitance to embrace the aggressive tactics of today’s politics could cost her in her race against former Rep. Bill Foster (D). Full story

California: Raul Ruiz Up 6 Points in Internal Poll

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted for the campaign of Raul Ruiz found the Democrat up 6 points in his challenge to California Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R).

Ruiz led 48 percent to 42 percent in the Lake Research Partners poll, with 7 percent of voters undecided. The poll was taken of 409 residents of the 36th district who are either likely to vote or have already voted. It was conducted Oct. 20-22 and had a 4.9-point margin of error.

The polling memo stated that both candidates’ unfavorable ratings have increased over the past few weeks, as both sides have stepped up attacks. So, “in the final weeks of the race, it is important for the Ruiz campaign to introduce Ruiz to the 33% of voters who have not already voted and still have no impression of Ruiz,” the memo stated. Full story

Robert Dold Fights District, Party Label in Bid for Second Term

Rep. Robert Dold and his 5-year-old daughter, Honor, greet a supporter at his campaign headquarters in Highland Park, Ill. (Shira Toepliz/CQ Roll Call)

HIGHLAND PARK, Ill. — Freshman Rep. Robert Dold boasts the dubious distinction of representing the most Democratic district of any Republican Member of the House.

If he’s lucky, Dold will keep that title next year in this redrawn district north of Chicago.

“Where is Zion?” asked his daughter Harper, 10, studying an atlas from the front seat of Dold’s blue, decorated campaign bus early Saturday afternoon. “Is this the right map?”

That’s probably the same question Dold asked himself 16 months ago, when Democrats redrew the Congressional map in Illinois. Democrats unsuccessfully dumped millions into the 10th district during the past three cycles, so Dold began his first term as a top target, even before the redrawn map made his road to a second term more challenging. Full story

Illinois: Democrats’ Redistricting Crown Jewel Not as Royal as Expected

Rep. Jan Schakowsky campaigns with Democratic House hopefuls Tammy Duckworth and Brad Schneider at Harmony Park in Arlington Heights, Ill. (Shira Toeplitz/CQ Roll Call)

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. — Democratic hopes of winning the House majority have been quashed, but in this northern Chicago suburb’s crowded village hall on a Saturday morning, one can see the glimmer of what might have been.

At this single location, early voters wait an hour to cast ballots in one of three redrawn Congressional districts. The hall serves as a symbol of the extent to which Democrats redrew the lines of the state’s map to their advantage.

Throughout the cycle, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) repeated these words: “The road to the majority runs through Illinois.” But less than week before Election Day, it’s clear that Democrats won’t net the 25 seats needed to regain the Speaker’s gavel, and it’s equally clear they won’t make as many gains in Illinois as they had hoped. Full story

Arizona: Barbs Turn Personal Among Richard Carmona, Jon Kyl and John McCain

The Arizona Senate race has taken a nasty and personal turn in the final days, highlighted by increasingly sharp barbs between GOP Sens. Jon Kyl and John McCain and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D).

The spat caps a tumultuous year for the Arizona delegation and politics in the state, and there is little to indicate relationships will improve in the next Congress — especially if Carmona wins the Tossup race.

Carmona faces Rep. Jeff Flake (R) in the race to replace Kyl, who is retiring. But recently Kyl and McCain have played starring roles in battering Carmona, while Flake is hardly in the fray at all. Full story

Wisconsin: More Negative Ads Out to Shape Senate Race

Rep. Tammy Baldwin and former Gov. Tommy Thompson are continuing to pursue an advertising strategy, implemented last week, that seeks to spook Wisconsonites. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Welcome to the kitchen sink, Wisconsin.

“Nuclear Iran.” … “Uranium.” … “Big oil.” … “Body armor.”

Feeling scared? Because it seems the Senate campaigns of former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) and Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) hope so, at least if you’re a Wisconsin voter.

With about a week left before Election Day, Baldwin and Thompson are continuing to pursue an advertising strategy, implemented last week, that seeks to spook Wisconsonites with negative spots that deal with 9/11 and the Iranian nuclear threat and bolster the existing themes of the election. Baldwin’s campaign has been running on “Tommy: He’s just not for you anymore,” and Thompson’s campaign has been running on Baldwin being “too extreme for Wisconsin.”

Today, Thompson’s camp unveiled another brutal ad, this one called “Body Armor,” which accused Baldwin of fighting to “block funding that provides body armor for our troops just to make a political point.”

Full story

Minnesota: Chip Cravaack Leading in GOP Poll

An internal poll conducted by Rep. Chip Cravaack's campaign showed him ahead of his Democratic challenger. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 11:55 a.m. | With a week to go before Election Day, two competing polls from Minnesota’s 8th district show vastly different pictures of the tossup race between Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) and former Rep. Rick Nolan (D).

An internal poll conducted by Cravaack’s campaign showed the Republican incumbent ahead of Nolan by 10 points. The poll of 400 likely voters had Cravaack with 50 percent of the vote to Nolan’s 40 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points and it was conducted Oct. 24 and Oct. 25.

At the same time, a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,020 likely voters showed Nolan in the lead with 48 percent to Cravaack’s 44 percent, just slightly outside of the 3.8 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Oct. 25 and Oct. 26.

Full story

Virginia: Tim Kaine Up 7 in New Poll

Tim Kaine (left) led in the latest Washington Post poll of the Virginia Senate race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from the Washington Post found that former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine led by 7 points in the open-seat Senate race.

The Democrat and fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) are battling in one of the most competitive contests of the cycle in a state that could go either way in the presidential race. And after a year of running even, polling results over the past six months have been as mixed as they once were steady.

However, the Post’s polling has not changed over the past month. In the latest survey, Kaine led 51 percent to 44 percent, a nearly identical result from the Post’s September poll. Full story