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Posts in "Tossup"
January 3, 2014
The competitive composition of Florida’s 13th District makes this race fascinating, but it’s also the first big contest on the calendar for 2014. This special election will serve as a test balloon for the parties to check their messaging with a split electorate months ahead of Election Day.
Longtime Rep. C.W. Bill Young’s death has spurred the first competitive race for the western Florida district in a few decades. Young carried the district easily, but President Barack Obama narrowly won the seat with 50 percent in 2012.
December 30, 2013
In a year with a few contenders, Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor is widely considered the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election. For Republicans, his seat is a must-win for the party to recapture the Senate majority.
With the president’s job approval rating dropping and southern Democrats disappearing from the congressional ranks, Pryor’s successful bid for a third term would be the ultimate proof that Senate elections are truly a choice between the two candidates on the ballot and the quality of the campaigns.
First elected in 2002, Pryor remains as the last Democrat from a congressional delegation filled with them just a few years ago. With the unpopularity of the president in Arkansas and Pryor’s vote in favor of the president’s health care overhaul law, Republicans believe they have a good shot at a clean sweep in the state’s federal races next November thanks to freshman Rep. Tom Cotton’s candidacy. Full story
December 29, 2013
There is so much to like about the 2014 Alaska Senate race, starting with the fact that there is a competitive race there at all.
In 2008, Mark Begich became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alaska since 1974. Without that upset victory over an incumbent Republican senator — who was convicted on corruption charges, which would later be thrown out, a week before the election — it’s highly unlikely Democrats would be competing in this solidly Republican state. Full story
December 12, 2013
Updated 9:31 a.m. | A Democrat-aligned super PAC has booked airtime in Louisiana, where Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La., is facing one of the toughest re-election races in the country.
Senate Majority PAC’s first ad in the Bayou State criticizes GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy for voting to raise the retirement age, “to raise Medicare costs $6,000 per year” and to shut down the federal government.
Watch the ad here:
December 11, 2013
Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu launched the first TV ad of her re-election campaign on Wednesday, highlighting her bill that would allow individual health care plan holders to keep their insurance under Obamacare.
The ad is an effort to defend the third-term Democrat from GOP attacks over the president’s health care law that have already hit the Bayou State airwaves — with more sure to come.
“Thousands of Louisianians and millions of Americans that carried individual policies will now have an opportunity to keep those health care plans,” Landrieu campaign manager Adam Sullivan said in a statement. “The President made a promise, and Sen. Landrieu is working to make sure it is kept and will continue her legislative efforts to fix and improve the Affordable Care Act.”
According to a release, the ad, backed by a $250,000 buy, will air in the Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Alexandria, Shreveport and Monroe media markets.
Watch Keeping the Promise here: Full story
December 5, 2013
While Democrats up for re-election are facing heat over Obamacare, a Democratic-aligned super PAC launched a TV ad targeting the leading Republican in the North Carolina Senate race on the issue of health care.
According to a Republican tracking ad buys, Senate Majority PAC is spending $736,000 over the next two weeks across four media markets to defend Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and criticize her top Republican challenger, state Speaker Thom Tillis. Full story
December 2, 2013
A second Republican state legislator who previously considered a Senate bid of his own in Louisiana has instead endorsed the campaign of GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy.
Cassidy’s Senate campaign announced Monday that state Sen. Elbert Guillory had joined state Rep. Alan Seabaugh as the latest potential foe to get behind his challenge to Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu — a top target of national Republicans.
Guillory gained some national attention this spring after switching parties. He had joined the Democratic Party in 2007, but he switched back to the GOP in May and became Louisiana’s only black Republican state senator. Full story
November 27, 2013
The Alaska Republican primary ballot next year will be a tale of two Dan Sullivans.
Former state Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan, a first-time candidate, announced a challenge last month to Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, the better-known of the two, is running for lieutenant governor.
The presence of more than one Dan Sullivan is causing some confusion in polling on the two races, but it may not necessarily have negative repercussions for either candidate in the Aug. 19 primaries. While there will undoubtedly be plenty of advertising in this inexpensive state over the next nine months, any lingering confusion could conceivably provide the Senate candidate a few extra points of support. Full story
November 5, 2013
The candidate: Former chief judge Ann Callis, a Democrat
The member: Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, a Republican
The district: Mitt Romney narrowly won this district with 49 percent of the vote.
The candidate’s team: Marshall Cohen (manager), Travis Lowe and Clare Gannon of Three Point Media (media), Jason McGrath and Mike Bocian of GBA Strategies (polling), Emily Parcell and Beth Hernandez of The Pivot Group (mail)
Former chief judge Ann Callis said she will need to raise $2 million to $2.5 million to wage a competitive campaign in the 13th District next year, according to an Oct. 10 interview she gave CQ Roll Call.
Callis is seeking to oust freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., in the competitive district that split nearly evenly between the two presidential candidates. Davis first faces a primary against former Miss America Erika Harold. Full story
A Democrat-aligned super PAC is coming to the defense of North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan, who was hit last week in a TV ad from a conservative outside group.
Senate Majority PAC launched a TV ad today that attempts to debunk the attack ad from Americans for Prosperity, which slammed the Democrat over her support for the health care law. The new spot, backed by a $400,000 buy, also highlights Hagan’s record, calling her an “independent senator working to help balance budgets and create jobs.”
November 4, 2013
A potential GOP rival to Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy reversed course over the weekend and endorsed the three-term Louisiana congressman, who is running for Senate.
As first reported by the New Orleans Times-Picayune, state Rep. Alan Seabaugh, who had seriously considered running, instead endorsed Cassidy in a statement on Sunday. The move rids one potential hurdle for Cassidy in his attempt to defeat Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu.
October 31, 2013
Montana Rep. Steve Daines, who is widely expected to run for Senate, is inviting supporters to a “special event” next week.
According to an invitation distributed by the Daines campaign on Thursday, the Republican’s event will take place Nov. 6 at a Holiday Inn in Bozeman. The missive included an unchanged logo, “Daines U.S. Congress.”
“Steve wants an opportunity to thank supporters like you — we hope to see you there!” the invitation reads. Full story
October 30, 2013
Florida Gov. Rick Scott has scheduled a special election to replace the late Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Fla., for next year.
The primary election will be Jan. 14, and the general election will be March 11.
Young died Oct. 18. Operatives from both parties expect a highly contested and competitive race for his seat. The district narrowly voted for President Barack Obama last year, making it the first special election of the cycle that could serve as a harbinger for the 2014 midterm elections.
Former state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink joined attorney Jessica Ehrlich in the Democratic primary Wednesday morning. Soon after Sink’s announcement, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee indicated that that organization would back her over Ehrlich.
As for the Republicans, GOP political consultant Nick Zoller jumped in earlier this month, and other Republicans are giving the seat a look as well.
The Tampa Bay Times first reported the news of the special-election date.
The race is rated Tossup by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.
Former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink will run to replace the late Republican Rep. C.W. Bill Young in Florida’s 13th District.
“I never let politics, fingert-pointing or name-calling stand in the way of getting results for the people I represent, and it’s these results-oriented values that I want to bring to Washington,” she said in a statement. “For the sake of our economy, our businesses and our families, we have to restore problem-solving leadership.”
October 23, 2013
Rep. Steve Daines, one of the last remaining 2014 Senate recruit holdouts, is expected to announce his decision by the end of this year, according to a Montana Republican source familiar with his thinking.
To this point, Daines has refused to offer a timeline for a decision about whether to seek the Big Sky State’s open Senate seat, a top GOP pickup opportunity. He’s also noted that Montana voters want a shortened election season after a nearly two-year battle last cycle.
Daines reiterated both points in an Oct. 17 interview with Montana Public Radio, and he even seemed to indicate that he wouldn’t make an announcement until the new year. But the GOP source said that an announcement should come this quarter. Full story