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Posts in "Tossup"
October 24, 2012
A flurry of polls were released over the last few days in the battleground 52nd district, where Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) is attempting to hold off a challenge from San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters (D).
Until now, there had been a dearth of polling on this competitive race. None of the three polls now out match each other, and the race is likely closer than any of the numbers suggest.
Sixty percent of the redrawn district is new to Bilbray, and the race has attracted a torrent of outside spending in recent weeks as both parties push to get out the early vote for this race and the competitive mayoral election.
October 23, 2012
NEW ALBANY, Ind. — In the final, high-stakes debate before Election Day, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) touched on an issue that has bedeviled another Republican Senate candidate, saying that “even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”
“I just, I struggled with it myself for a long time,” Mourdock said as he teared up. “But I came to realize that life is that gift from God.”
MADISON, Ind. — Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) will release internal polling today showing him with a 2-point lead over his Senate opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R).
Donnelly leads Mourdock, 40 percent to 38 percent, in the survey paid for by the Democrat’s campaign. A Libertarian candidate, Andrew Horning, recieved 8 percent in that survey.
Two weeks before Election Day, the Indiana Senate race remains highly competitive. Roll Call rates it as a Tossup. On Tuesday night, the candidates will meet for their second and final debate in New Albany.
Public polling of the race is rare because of the Hoosier State’s restrictions on automated calls. But a mid-September, bipartisan poll from Howey Politics Indiana showed similar results.
Mourdock’s internal polling from early October showed the GOP nominee with a 3-point lead.
Global Strategy Group conducted Donnelly’s poll of 603 likely voters from Oct. 17 to 21. The margin of error is 4 points.
See Donnelly’s full polling memo here.
October 22, 2012
Former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) has the edge over fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) in their highly competitive race for the state’s open Senate seat, according to a poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Kaine led 48 percent to 44 percent in the poll, which was conducted Oct. 15-18 among 802 likely voters and had a 3.5-point margin of error.
The race has been close throughout, though polling margins over the past month have been erratic. Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.
Former Rep. Rick Nolan (D) could have the edge over Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) in the 8th district, according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll released today that showed the challenger with a 7-point lead.
Nolan led Cravaack 50 percent to 43 percent, according to the newspaper’s poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted Oct. 16. The poll has a margin of error of 3 points.
The new poll showing Nolan in the lead is in stark contrast to three polls released earlier in the month, each of which showed the race to be deadlocked. The Nolan campaign is claiming the momentum in this. The Cravaack campaign disputed the findings of the Star Tribune poll.
October 20, 2012
Bill Clinton will attend a Southern California rally on Tuesday to formally endorse Democratic Congressional candidates in a region fertile with pickup opportunities for the party.
The former president is scheduled to attend a “California’s Voice” afternoon rally at the University of California, Irvine, a serene, suburban Orange County campus between Los Angeles and San Diego. There he will endorse five candidates either challenging a Republican incumbent or running for an open seat. Full story
Rep. Jeff Flake is the second Arizona Republican in a month to deliver the GOP’s weekly address.
The move appears to be an effort to boost Flake’s Senate campaign and to present a national face of fiscal conservatism.
“My wife, Cheryl, and I celebrated some great news this week. We became grandparents for the first time. Aiden Jeffrey Flake was lucky enough to be born in the greatest country in the world,” he said. “While it will be years before he is ready to start school, his share of the national debt is already over $50,000.
“If we continue along our current budget trajectory, our grandson is simply not going to have the same opportunities that my grandparents created for me,” said Flake, who has used this personal story previously in the campaign.
He is locked in a Tossup race against former Surgeon General Richard Carmona. This is an open seat created by Sen. Jon Kyl’s (R) retirement.
Flake’s fellow Arizonan, House candidate Vernon Parker, delivered the GOP address in late September. He is in a Tossup race against former state Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in Arizona’s 9th district.
October 19, 2012
Republican-aligned American Action Network is investing another $500,000 into Minnesota’s hotly contested 8th district race on behalf of freshman GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack, Roll Call has learned.
With the additional reservation, AAN is now scheduled to spend $1 million from today through Election Day to help Cravaack survive a stiff challenge from former Rep. Rick Nolan (D). That includes $700,000 in television time in Minneapolis, $200,000 in Duluth and $100,000 online. The group had already spent $700,000 on the race. Full story
October 18, 2012
In a rarely used debate format, Wisconsin Senate candidates Tommy Thompson (R), a former governor, and Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) were permitted to directly spar with each other in unmoderated six-minute chunks on topics picked by voters.
The hourlong debate in Wausau played very much like an extended, spliced-together greatest hits video of Thompson and Baldwin campaign ads, an at times heated back-and-forth defined more by established talking points than off-the-cuff remarks. Given that predictability, and in a race that’s too close to call 19 days before Election Day, it’s unclear whether either candidate was able to sway the few remaining undecided voters in ways their media operations can’t.
The debaters addressed the 2010 health care law, with Baldwin in favor and Thompson opposed; the deficit crisis, with Baldwin calling for higher-earning Americans to pay more and Thompson accusing the Democrat of being a tax-and-spender; and even Wisconsin’s own vice presidential candidate, with Baldwin calling Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget extreme and Thompson trying to distance himself after telling reporters in August that “most people know that Paul and I are close friends and that we teamed up on many issues, especially on Medicare.”
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released earlier this evening had Baldwin leading Thompson 49 percent to 45 percent. A Marquette University poll released Wednesday had Thompson leading Baldwin 46 percent to 45 percent. Sources on both sides of the aisle, in Wisconsin and in Washington, D.C., say that Wisconsin’s Senate contest is among the most competitive in the country and could be decisive in determining the chamber’s majority. Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.
Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) has contributed $832,000 in personal funds to his Senate campaign, according to an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Thompson, who served as Health and Human Services secretary under President George W. Bush, has been relatively cash-strapped since surviving a bruising four-way August primary, during which he contributed more than $700,000 of his own money to his campaign via a combination of donations and loans in the closing days of that race.
Earlier in August, Thompson had told the Journal Sentinel that he didn’t think it was “right” for candidates to self-finance their campaigns, saying, “I don’t think that people should buy an election with their own wealth.” But in his meeting with the paper posted today, Thompson said his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, has benefited significantly from raising money out of state and that he had no “power base” from which to fundraise.
Rep. Shelley Berkley’s Senate campaign released an internal poll this afternoon after two new public autodial polls found the Democrat down by at least 6 points.
A memo from the Mellman Group polling firm reported that Berkley led Republican Sen. Dean Heller, 41 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The campaign released a poll last week that had Berkley ahead by an identical margin.
“As you know, every public poll in the 2010 Senate race proved to be far off the mark,” the polling memo stated in reference to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) race last cycle. “So it is with the 2012 polling.” Full story
October 17, 2012
A new poll showed Rep. Christopher Murphy (D) had a narrow, within-the-margin-of-error lead over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon in the open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
Murphy got 46 percent, while McMahon had 44 percent. Eight percent of respondents said they remained undecided. The poll was conducted by Siena Research Institute.
One eyebrow-raising point of the poll’s implementation is that it took place over 10 days — far longer than most conventional polls. That 10-day window is a highly fluid point in the race — including two debates and massive television advertising saturation.
CANTON, Ohio — The auto industry reigns in this northeastern corner of the Buckeye State, and three years after Congress passed Cash for Clunkers, the issue persists on the campaign trail.
So it’s serendipitous that a former car dealership owner, freshman Rep. Jim Renacci (R), faces the program’s chief sponsor, Rep. Betty Sutton (D), in the 16th district.
“As a car dealer, of course I saw car sales go up for the two months the programs was in place,” Renacci said in a Tuesday afternoon interview. “But for the next five months, I saw new car sales go down. That’s a problem. All we did was pull sales forward.”
The Cash for Clunkers program, passed in 2009 with bipartisan support from Ohio Members, gave drivers up to $4,500 to buy a new fuel-efficient car by trading in their used vehicle. Renacci shut the doors on his Chevrolet dealership in nearby Wadsworth during his 2010 bid for Congress. Full story
October 16, 2012
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the Service Employees International Union have launched ad campaigns totaling almost $2 million in two tight statewide races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
The New Hampshire campaign features a $1.3 million joint ad by AFSCME and SEIU assailing GOP gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne as a “radical” who “wants to end Medicare as we know it.”
Polls show Lamontagne statistically tied with Democrat Maggie Hassan in the open-seat gubernatorial contest. The joint ad targeting Lamontagne will run in the Boston-Manchester market between now and Election Day. Full story
October 14, 2012
SAN DIEGO — Democrat Scott Peters on Saturday rallied more than 400 labor volunteers who were preparing to canvass for voters across the city to support his bid to oust Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) in California’s newly drawn 52nd district and to help Democrats running in other local races.
Before setting out on a chilly (for this city) morning, state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (I), who made national headlines earlier this year when he left the GOP during his run for mayor, introduced Peters to the large labor council gathering in a parking lot near Qualcomm Stadium, home of the National Football League’s San Diego Chargers.
With early voting under way in the Golden State, it was part of Peters’ initial push in this Tossup race — one that he participated in as he knocked on doors in the company of Rep. Susan Davis (D-Calif.) to ask voters for their support. Full story