Connecticut: Christopher Murphy, Linda McMahon Still in Statistical Tie

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll showed Rep. Christopher Murphy (D) had a narrow, within-the-margin-of-error lead over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon in the open-seat race to replace retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

Murphy got 46 percent, while McMahon had 44 percent. Eight percent of respondents said they remained undecided. The poll was conducted by Siena Research Institute.

One eyebrow-raising point of the poll’s implementation is that it took place over 10 days — far longer than most conventional polls. That 10-day window is a highly fluid point in the race  — including two debates and massive television advertising saturation.

Full story

Ohio: Jim Renacci Attacks Betty Sutton on Cash for Clunkers

Rep. Jim Renacci, a former car dealership owner, faces Rep. Betty Sutton, the sponsor of Cash for Clunkers, in Ohio's 16th district. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

CANTON, Ohio — The auto industry reigns in this northeastern corner of the Buckeye State, and three years after Congress passed Cash for Clunkers, the issue persists on the campaign trail.

So it’s serendipitous that a former car dealership owner, freshman Rep. Jim Renacci (R), faces the program’s chief sponsor, Rep. Betty Sutton (D), in the 16th district.

“As a car dealer, of course I saw car sales go up for the two months the programs was in place,” Renacci said in a Tuesday afternoon interview. “But for the next five months, I saw new car sales go down. That’s a problem. All we did was pull sales forward.”

The Cash for Clunkers program, passed in 2009 with bipartisan support from Ohio Members, gave drivers up to $4,500 to buy a new fuel-efficient car by trading in their used vehicle. Renacci shut the doors on his Chevrolet dealership in nearby Wadsworth during his 2010 bid for Congress. Full story

John Boehner to Boost Candidates in Iowa, Illinois

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Speaker John Boehner will be in Iowa campaigning for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Wednesday, and he also plans to fundraise for two House challengers while he’s in the state.

Ben Lange and John Archer, who are running against Democratic incumbents in Iowa’s 1st and 2nd districts, respectively, will get a boost from the Speaker.

The Ohio Republican will start the day with a fundraising luncheon in Davenport for Archer, a lawyer who is running against Rep. Dave Loebsack (D). The event will be held at the Davenport Country Club, and donations range from $250 to $1,000 a person, according to the Quad-City Times. Full story

Missouri: Claire McCaskill Internal Poll Shows 14-Point Lead

(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new internal poll from Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign showed her with an expanding lead over GOP Rep. Todd Akin.

The poll had McCaskill leading by 14 points, 52 percent to Akin’s 38 percent, a substantial increase over the last internal numbers released from the same pollster, which showed her with a 9-point lead.

The tracking survey, which pollster Kiley & Co. said was finished this evening, suggested McCaskill’s campaign is succeeding in driving up the unfavorable perception of Akin. Her campaign has launched an aggressive effort to attack the Republican on an assortment of policy issues, highlighted by last week’s ads that featured victims of sexual assault criticizing Akin’s position against emergency birth control.

Full story

Crossroads GPS Announces $5 Million Ad Buy in Seven States

Karl Rove’s powerful Crossroads GPS is set to go on the air for one week to attack a half-dozen Democratic Senate candidates and one Democratic-leaning Independent, at a total cost of $5 million.

According to the group, the ads will run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in Indiana, former Gov. Angus King in Maine, Sen. Jon Tester in Montana, Rep. Shelley Berkley in Nevada, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, former Gov. Tim Kaine in Virginia and Rep. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.

“From tax hikes to reckless spending, these liberal politicians are rubber-stamps for the out-of-touch policies which have resulted in an anemic economy and fewer jobs,” Crossroads GPS Director of State and Regional Media Relations Nate Hodson said in a statement. “Crossroads hopes to prevent the higher taxes and more government these politicians support from continuing to hinder the economic recovery we need.”

Roll Call has learned the $5 million buy breaks down as follows (with links to the spots as posted online): Full story

Rand Paul Enters Fray in Missouri, at Least a Little

Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) PAC is adding Missouri to the list of states where it has created an ad against Democratic Senators opposing his effort to curb U.S. aid to Egypt, Libya and Pakistan.

The ad against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) circulated on YouTube today. It could be a small boon for the beleaguered campaign of challenger Rep. Todd Akin (R). Paul has previously put up similar ads with money behind them targeting Senators in West Virginia, Ohio and Florida.

Full story

Hawaii: Don Young Backs Linda Lingle After Supporting Mazie Hirono, Pushes Oil Exploration

Rep. Don Young of Alaska is endorsing former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) is endorsing former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) in the race to fill Hawaii’s open Senate seat, even though he appeared in an ad backing Rep. Mazie Hirono (D) during primary season.

Young made the announcement in a letter on Monday, endorsing Lingle because her victory — as unlikely as it seems to be — could help Republicans take control of the Senate. The campaign is not close, with polling showing Lingle trailing Hirono by double digits. But it continues to generate strange side stories far from the mainland.

“As the only noncontiguous states in the union, Alaska and Hawaii are connected through a unique set of issues facing each state. Energy is on the minds of both Alaskans and Hawaiians,” Young wrote. “Harry Reid and his cohorts — continue to stand in the way of responsible development of Alaska’s resources.”

Full story

Nevada: Harry Reid Ridicules Danny Tarkanian’s Financial Woes

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid criticized the finances of GOP nominee Danny Tarkanian (above), who is running in Nevada's 4th district. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Updated 7:12 p.m. | Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) continued in his chosen role of Democratic attack dog today, this time entering the fray in a House campaign in Nevada and criticizing GOP nominee Danny Tarkanian’s finances.

Following a failed real estate deal, Tarkanian and his family are facing a $17 million judgement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Tarkanian has said his family is the victim of fraud in the California project. Reid, however, has other ideas. He called the real estate deal a “ridiculous loan.”

“His judgment was so bad that he gambled and lost his family’s entire nest egg because he failed to do his homework,” Reid said on a conference call today.

Full story

Oklahoma House Candidate to Deliver GOP Address

Markwayne Mullin, the GOP candidate running to fill the open seat in Oklahoma’s 2nd district, will deliver the weekly Republican address Saturday.

The businessman and rancher was formally tapped today by Speaker John Boehner (Ohio). He’s the second Congressional hopeful Boehner has selected to give the weekly address this cycle — the other in late September was Vernon Parker, the candidate in Arizona’s 9th district.

“Small businesses continue to struggle in this weak economy, and all the taxing, spending and red tape coming from the Obama administration is only making things worse,” Boehner said in a statement. “Markwayne Mullin has run a business and created jobs, and he understands the need to shut down the jobs-destroying red tape factory in Washington, D.C.”

“If elected,” Boehner continued, “I know he’ll be a strong voice in the House for a smaller, more accountable and less costly government.” Full story

Race Ratings Changes: Less Than One Month to Go

Rep. Dan Benishek increasingly looks like he won't return for the 113th Congress. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

One year ago it would have been hard to picture both the Arizona and Connecticut open-seat Senate races as Tossups with less than a month to go before Election Day. But funny things can happen to the Senate battleground map based on candidates and the campaigns they run — just ask Republicans this cycle about Missouri.

The open-seat Senate races in the Nutmeg State and the Grand Canyon State are thousands of miles apart, yet share some distinct similarities. Both feature House Members who began the race as the heavy frontrunner and challengers who have surged based on the strength of their campaigns. Those challengers will still have to overcome a heavy partisan disadvantage at the presidential level, but that prospect seems to be increasingly possible. Therefore, we are moving both races into the tossup column, even though in both races, the party that currently holds the seat still has a very small advantage. Full story

Wisconsin: Paul Ryan’s House Opponent Traveling to Ky. for Debate

Democrat Rob Zerban, who is challenging vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan (R) in Wisconsin’s 1st district, will travel to Kentucky today for the vice presidential debate, his campaign announced.

Ryan, who is running simultaneously for the House and the White House, is still heavily favored in the race. But Zerban has proven to be a formidable candidate, outraising the well-funded Ryan in the third quarter by more than $200,000, bolstered by the support of liberal groups such as former Sen. Russ Feingold’s Progressives United and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. As Roll Call recently reported, Ryan has made ad reservations in the state to boost his re-election cause.

Roll Call rates this race as Safe Republican.

Tennessee: Transcript Reveals Scott DesJarlais Urged Mistress to Have Abortion

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) was at work on Capitol Hill today despite the media firestorm that was unfolding around him.

According to parts of a transcript from a more-than-decade-old phone call published by the Huffington Post, DesJarlais, then a doctor, urged a pregnant mistress to get an abortion. The woman was a patient of the conservative anti-abortion doctor-turned-lawmaker.

“You told me you’d have an abortion, and now we’re getting too far along without one,” DesJarlais says at one point. He also suggests heading to Atlanta to “solve” the issue.

“Well, we’ve got to do something soon,” he says. “And you’ve even got to admit that because the clock is ticking right?” Full story

Ohio: GOP Poll Gives Bill Johnson 8-Point Lead

A GOP poll showed Rep. Bill Johnson will an 8-point lead. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Bill Johnson (R) led former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) by 8 points in their rematch of the 2010 race, according to a GOP survey released today.

Johnson had 47 percent and Wilson had 39 percent in the survey paid for jointly by the freshman lawmaker and the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The results counter Wilson’s own mid-September polling that showed a tied race. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

The 6th district race has become one of the most competitive House races in Ohio, next to the Member-vs.-Member race in the 16th district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dedicated additional resources to the 6th district race two weeks ago. Full story

Missouri: Claire McCaskill Releases Ads Featuring Sexual Assault Survivors

In a move that seemed inevitable, the campaign of Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) has now released a series of TV ads featuring survivors of sexual assault criticizing GOP challenger Rep. Todd Akin’s views on emergency contraception.

Two of the spots feature women who identify themselves as personally against abortion. One of them, identified as “Diana,” also identifies herself as a Republican.

“In the hospital, I was offered emergency contraception. Because of my personal beliefs, I declined. Here’s what else I believe: No woman should be denied that choice,” she said. ”I’ve never voted for Claire McCaskill, but because of Todd Akin, I will now.”

Full story

Missouri: NRSC Blasts Claire McCaskill Without Mentioning Todd Akin

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Updated 8:38 p.m. | The National Republican Senatorial Committee criticized Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) today after a report found companies connected to her family received almost $40 million from the federal government.

NRSC Executive Director Rob Jesmer weighed in with the first lengthy criticism of McCaskill from the national party structure since NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) effectively called the race a bad investment in an interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal.

“Sen. McCaskill should apologize to the people of Missouri who sent her to Washington to rein in the size of the federal government, not to max out the government credit card and then get richer off of it,” Jesmer said. “This is just the latest in a long line of broken promises to Missourians and hypocritical conduct in Washington by Claire McCaskill.”

Full story