Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge

Former Ambassador Jim Cain is seriously considering seeking the Republican Senate nomination in North Carolina next year.

“The race is indeed something that I am considering,” Cain told CQ Roll Call in an email from China. “Many friends and supporters around the state are encouraging me to challenge Senator [Kay] Hagan.”

Cain is a former Republican National committeeman and served as ambassador to Denmark during President George W. Bush’s second term. An attorney at Kilpatrick Townsend, Cain previously served as president and chief operating officer of the National Hockey League’s Carolina Hurricanes. His candidacy would likely draw significant support from the Raleigh business community.

Despite the state’s GOP lean, Republicans know they will have a tough fight against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan. Still, several Republicans are considering taking her on. Full story

Empty Inbox? Join Gillibrand’s Campaign Email List

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y. is a prolific pen pal.

The Empire State’s junior senator has sent emails to her supporters at a copious clip in the past month — sending a total of four messages just this week. Democratic operatives who monitor campaign email traffic say Gillibrand’s operation emails supporters more often than almost anyone else in the Senate.

“Outside of leadership, probably yes,” said one Democratic digital consultant, who added that the senator might send more messages than the president’s campaign operation.

Why the inbox barrage? It’s not because she has a tough re-election anytime soon. Gillibrand won’t face another Senate race until 2018 and she’s a strong fundraiser, pulling in $15 million for her 2012 re-election, a contest she won by 45 points.  Full story

North Carolina: McHenry Won’t Run Against Hagan

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Patrick T. McHenry, R-N.C., announced on Thursday that he will not challenge Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the 2014 Senate race.

The five-term member’s name was floated in the state as a potential challenger to the first-term Democrat — who is considered one of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election this cycle – and recent polls put him at the top of the heap among a handful of  potential GOP candidates.

However, McHenry said in a statement that he “has too much to get done” in the House and thus is declining to enter the race.

“My colleagues in the House have entrusted me with important responsibilities as a subcommittee chairman on the Financial Services Committee as well as leading recruitment efforts for the” National Republican Congressional Committee, McHenry said. “But with her unwavering support for President Obama’s failed policies, I have no doubt that North Carolinians will think twice before sending Kay Hagan back to Washington.” Full story

North Carolina: Ellmers Will Decide on Hagan Challenge in June

Hagan is vulnerable in 2014. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The GOP field to challenge Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan will likely take shape in June, local Republican operatives say.

Most notably, GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers — who is currently weighing whether to challenge one of the cycle’s most vulnerable Democratic senators — said through an aide that she hopes to have a decision then.

“Congresswoman Ellmers is praying about it, discussing it with supporters and monitoring how things develop,” Ellmers campaign spokeswoman Jessica Wood told CQ Roll Call. “She expects to have a decision in June.”

(See also in Roll Call: Rothenberg: Most Vulnerable of ’14? Pryor by a Hair ) Full story

Hagan Latest 2014 Democrat to Come Out for Gay Marriage

Hagan is the latest Senate Democrat to come out in favor of gay marriage rights. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Supreme Court’s focus this week on gay marriage has put Democratic senators seeking re-election in 2014 under a microscope, with no shortage of media outlets asking their offices about evolving views on the issue.

With the court taking up the constitutionality of a portion of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which restricted the federal definition of marriage to opposite sex couples, several Democratic senators have determined in recent days that now is the time to make public revised or clarified stands on the marriage issue. Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina, who is up for re-election in 2014, became the latest Democrat to announce her support for gay marriage Wednesday morning in an interview with the Raleigh News & Observer.

Full story

Shop Talk: Hagan Signs Coady, Brees to Re-Election Finance Team

Hagan is staffing up for her 2014 re-election campaign (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., continues to staff her re-election campaign by bringing on two new aides: John Coady will serve as her finance director and Erika Brees will serve as her state finance director.

Brees and Coady are veterans of another targeted incumbent’s re-election race: Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign in Missouri last year. Coady held the same title with the McCaskill campaign, while Brees was her Missouri deputy finance director.

The junior senator from North Carolina is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2014 cycle, although her GOP opponent is unclear. In the meantime, Hagan continues to bring on operatives for her re-election. She announced last week that she had hired Preston Elliott to be her 2014 campaign manager.

The list of Hagan’s potential opponents includes obstetrician and tea party supporter Greg Brannon, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, Rep. Renee Ellmers, state Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry.

Shop Talk: Hagan Hires Preston Elliot as Campaign Manager

Hagan hired a campaign manager for her 2014 re-election bid. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., announced Tuesday she has hired Preston Elliott to be her 2014 campaign manager in a race that’s expected to be among Democrats’ toughest this cycle.

An experienced operative, Elliott served as campaign manager for Sen. Jon Tester’s re-election campaign in Montana, one of the most heavily targeted races of the 2012 cycle. He is also a veteran of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s 2010 re-election effort, and he was the deputy political director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“I am so pleased to have Preston on board as my campaign manager,” Hagan said in a statement. “He has a proven track record of success, and with his help and the help of North Carolinians of all walks of life, I expect to cross the finish line with a victory in November 2014.”

Obstetrician and tea party supporter Greg Brannon is the first Republican challenger to enter the race.

But Republicans say Brannon won’t be the only — or the strongest — contender. They name state House Speaker Thom Tillis, Rep. Renee Ellmers, state Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry as potential candidates.

North Carolina: Hagan Challenger Kicks Off Campaign

Hagan has a new challenger in her 2014 re-election bid. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Greg Brannon, an obstetrician and tea party supporter in North Carolina, kicked off his Senate campaign Wednesday with a two-day tour of the state.

Brannon is the first Republican to announce a challenge to Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, who is running her first re-election campaign since knocking out then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Hagan is one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, running in a state that President Barack Obama lost in 2012.  CQ Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup. Full story

NRA Targets Democratic Senators Up in 2014 With Local Newspaper Ads

The National Rifle Association will target several senators up for re-election in 2014, including Pryor. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Rifle Association will launch a print advertising campaign targeting mostly Democratic senators up for re-election in 2014, according to sources close to the group.

On Thursday, full-page ads are scheduled to run in local newspapers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina and West Virginia. They will be supplemented by digital advertising in these states and 10 others, including Alaska, Colorado, Montana, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

Additionally, the group has scheduled full-page ads to run Feb. 25 in regional editions of USA Today, reaching parts of 15 states.

The campaign is estimated to cost north of $375,000, sources said. Full story

EMILY’s List Endorses Hagan and Shaheen

Shaheen has received the backing of EMILY's List. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

EMILY’s List, the Democratic group that backs female candidates who support abortion rights, has endorsed Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

“For the past four years, Senators Hagan and Shaheen have been tireless advocates for women and families in Congress,” EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock said in a press release. “Both became the first Democratic women to represent their state in the Senate with the help of the EMILY’s List Community,

Shaheen enters the cycle in much better re-election shape than Hagan. New Hampshire delivered for President Barack Obama, who won the swing state by 6 points, and both of its House seats swung back to the Democrats in 2012. More importantly, there is no obvious Republican challenger to Shaheen at this point. Hagan is one of the most vulnerable members of the Democratic caucus, and her state went for Mitt Romney in 2012, despite a strong Obama ground operation.

Few will dispute that EMILY’s List is riding high after the 2012 cycle. The organization dramatically increased its membership, in large part to a reaction from Republican candidate gaffes and anti-abortion policies.

GOP Outside Group Makes Issue Ad Buy on Fiscal Cliff

The GOP-aligned American Action Network has launched an online advertising campaign urging Beltway policy insiders to support congressional Republicans during the fiscal cliff debate.

The online digital campaign includes Web videos and search, mobile and display ads. The money behind the buy is in the tens of thousands of dollars. The group’s newest Web video features economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who is associated with AAN’s sister organization, American Action Forum.

Holtz-Eakin is a former Congressional Budget Office director and was a top domestic adviser to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., during his 2008 presidential campaign.

Updated 11:29 a.m. | Crossroads GPS is making an effort on this front as well, with a $240,000 local radio ad buy targeting five Democratic senators who are in races Roll Call rates as Tossups.

Those radio spots are airing in target=”_blank”>Alaska, targeting Sen. Mark Begich; target=”_blank”>Louisiana, targeting Sen. Mary L. Landrieu; target=”_blank”>North Carolina, targeting Sen. Kay Hagan; target=”_blank”>South Dakota, targeting Sen. Tim Johnson and West Virginia, targeting Sen. Jay Rockefeller.

Inside the 2014 Senate Races

Roll Call’s initial Senate ratings outlook projects a potentially bullish cycle for Republicans, with an opportunity to recapture the majority for the first time in eight years.

But that’s exactly how things looked two years before the 2012 elections, when Democrats surprised many with victories in Missouri and North Dakota on their way to picking up two seats. So the challenge for the GOP and incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas is to capitalize on their opportunities.

That and how voters feel about President Barack Obama in 2014 could determine how the parties fare at the ballot box less than two years from now. Democrats won their current majority in 2006, in the second midterm election under President George W. Bush.

Republicans are hoping Obama’s second midterm is similarly kind to them, if not equal to the president’s 2010 midterm shellacking, when the GOP won seven seats (and control of the House) despite beginning the cycle as the underdog.

Full story