Remainders: And Then There Was Nunn

Here’s what you may have missed “At the Races” on Monday …

• #IRS – CQ Roll Call’s Eliza Newlin Carney examines what the IRS mess means for campaign finance laws.
• #GASEN – Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., will soon announce her decision on a Senate bid.
• #NC12 – A Democratic fundraiser is mulling a bid for Rep. Melvin Watt’s seat. Watt was recently nominated to run the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
• #VASEN – The Virginia GOP changed how it will nominate Democratic Sen. Mark Warner’s 2014 challenger.
• #UT04 – Sarasota Springs Mayor Mia Love announced she will challenge Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson to a rematch in 2014.

What we’re mulling on Monday …

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Virginia GOP to Nominate Mark Warner Challenger via Convention

Republicans will attempt to challenge Warner. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Virginia Republicans voted on May 17 to hold a nominating convention next year — rather than a primary — to select a challenger to Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, the Virginian-Pilot reported.

The move, which came at the state party’s annual convention in Richmond, could affect the GOP field that vies for the nomination. Conventions, where only party activists vote, often nominate more conservative candidates than the broader GOP primary electorate. Full story

Inside the 2014 Senate Races

Roll Call’s initial Senate ratings outlook projects a potentially bullish cycle for Republicans, with an opportunity to recapture the majority for the first time in eight years.

But that’s exactly how things looked two years before the 2012 elections, when Democrats surprised many with victories in Missouri and North Dakota on their way to picking up two seats. So the challenge for the GOP and incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas is to capitalize on their opportunities.

That and how voters feel about President Barack Obama in 2014 could determine how the parties fare at the ballot box less than two years from now. Democrats won their current majority in 2006, in the second midterm election under President George W. Bush.

Republicans are hoping Obama’s second midterm is similarly kind to them, if not equal to the president’s 2010 midterm shellacking, when the GOP won seven seats (and control of the House) despite beginning the cycle as the underdog.

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Virginia: Warner Won’t Run for Governor

Warner barnstormed Virginia on behalf of President Barack Obama and Sen.-elect Tim Kaine in the runup to Election Day. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., announced Tuesday that he will not seek a return to the governorship next year, setting up a likely bid for re-election in 2014.

“Over the last year, a lot of Virginians – Democrats, Republicans, and independents – have approached me and asked that I consider running for Governor a second time,” Warner said in a statement. “I loved being governor, but I have a different job now — and it’s here in the United States Senate.”

It’s well-known that Warner enjoyed his time as governor from 2002 to 2006, and rumors of a potential return to Richmond have wafted through the Old Dominion political scene for the past year. As the most popular politician in the state, Warner would have been the heavy favorite in the gubernatorial race, and he is currently favored to win his first bid for re-election to the Senate. Full story

Virginia: George Allen Concedes to Tim Kaine

George Allen kisses his wife, Susan, during his concession speech at the Virginia Republicans' election night party in Richmond. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Former Sen. George Allen (R) has conceded to former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D).

The two men, fond of each other personally, were vying for a Senate seat that was central to GOP plans to take control of the Senate.

At the time of Allen’s concession, Kaine was leading by about 1 point and the presidential contest was almost completely tied.

Candidates Make Last-Minute Loans to Campaigns

A slew of Congressional candidates dipped into their own wallets over the past week to fund one final push in their campaigns.

Here’s Roll Call’s running tally, according to local reports and online filings with the Federal Election Commission:

Senate races:

• Last week, former Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) guaranteed a $500,000 loan for his campaign against former Gov. Tim Kaine (D). An Allen aide described it as a bridge loan to ensure available funds while the campaign processed credit card donations. Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup.
• Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) made a last-minute, $250,000 loan to aid her bid against Sen. Dean Heller (R). Roll Call rates this as a Tossup.
• Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) continued to fund much of her campaign against Rep. Christopher Murphy (D). As of Oct. 17, she had contributed $40 million of her own funds to her race. Roll Call rates this as Leans Democratic.

House races:

• Attorney Kathy Boockvar (D) contributed $15,000 to her campaign to unseat Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). Roll Call rates this race as Safe Republican.
• Rep. Mark Critz (D-Pa.) loaned his campaign $35,000 on Oct. 25. That’s in addition to the $64,400 Critz, a former House aide, still owes his campaign from his primary against fellow Rep. Jason Altmire (D). Critz faces attorney Keith Rothfus (R) in a race Roll Call rates as a Tossup.
• Former Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) contributed $500,000 to his campaign to defeat Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) in the 11th district southwest of Chicago. A scientist and businessman, Foster has loaned his campaign big bucks in his previous bids. Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup.
• Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.) wrote a check for $100,000 to her campaign on Oct. 29. She faces attorney Sean Patrick Maloney (D) in a race Roll Call rates as a Tossup. She also donated funds to her 2010 bid.
• State Rep. Randy Weber (R) gave his campaign $25,000 to defeat former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Texas). Weber already loaned his campaign $226,500 earlier this cycle. Roll Call rates this race as Leans Republican.

Virginia: Mitt Romney, George Allen Rally GOP Faithful

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets the crowd at a campaign stop at the Farm Bureau Center in Doswell, Va. Romney was joined on the stump by Republican Senate candidate George Allen, who is locked in a tight race with Democrat Tim Kaine. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

DOSWELL, Va. — Presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Senate candidate George Allen rallied the GOP faithful today to begin a final joint push across this crucial battleground state.

In the second event of a three-stop tour, several hundred supporters donning stickers for Romney, Allen and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) crowded into the expansive Farm Bureau Center outside Richmond to hear the nominees for president and Senate. Full story

Virginia: Tim Kaine Hunting for Few Undecideds Left

Democrat Tim Kaine is running for Senate in Virginia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

ASHLAND, Va. — Former Gov. Tim Kaine spent an hour today in a Democratic town within a heavily Republican county in an effort to encourage his supporters to persuade the remaining undecided voters to vote for him and to increase turnout among Democrats.

Standing on a stage where live bluegrass bands often play, Kaine, who is running against former Gov. George Allen (R) for the state’s open Senate seat, said that 3 percent of voters are probably still undecided. He said “person-to-person contact” is vital at this point in the campaign. Kaine said that more than $20 million in outside money has been spent against him by rich individuals from out of state who can write checks with a lot of zeros, and said he wants to “show there aren’t enough zeros in the world” to beat a grass-roots campaign run by Virginians.

Truman Parmele, the owner of the coffee shop and music venue, said bands play there five nights a week, performing any kind of music but hip-hop. Parmele, 67, said he’s independent, formerly in the Air Force and moderate on social issues. He told Roll Call that Obamacare scares him, and he asked Kaine whether he would support a flat tax. Parmele said Kaine is “very personable” and said he will probably support him.

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American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS Make Gargantuan Final Senate Ad Push

The Republican-affiliated sister groups American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS will begin a massive $10.5 million Senate ad blitz today and Wednesday, blanketing competitive Senate races, including those in Maine, Montana and New Mexico, with hard-hitting attack ads.

With control of the Senate in the balance, the deep-pocketed groups are making a concerted final push to help put GOP candidates over the line.

The ads that begin today are in the following Senate races:

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Virginia: Tim Kaine Up 7 in New Poll

Tim Kaine (left) led in the latest Washington Post poll of the Virginia Senate race. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new poll from the Washington Post found that former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine led by 7 points in the open-seat Senate race.

The Democrat and fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) are battling in one of the most competitive contests of the cycle in a state that could go either way in the presidential race. And after a year of running even, polling results over the past six months have been as mixed as they once were steady.

However, the Post’s polling has not changed over the past month. In the latest survey, Kaine led 51 percent to 44 percent, a nearly identical result from the Post’s September poll. Full story

Virginia: Tim Kaine Up 4 Points in DSCC Senate Race Poll

(Douglas Graham/Roll Call File Photo)

Former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) has the edge over fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) in their highly competitive race for the state’s open Senate seat, according to a poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Kaine led 48 percent to 44 percent in the poll, which was conducted Oct. 15-18 among 802 likely voters and had a 3.5-point margin of error.

The race has been close throughout, though polling margins over the past month have been erratic. Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.

Virginia: NRSC Launches First IE Ad in Senate Race

The National Republican Senatorial Committee kicked off its independent expenditure spending in Virginia today by launching a television ad that criticizes former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) for supporting increased federal spending.

Virginia: Tim Kaine, George Allen Release Ads Ahead of Debate

Former Govs. Tim Kaine (left) and George Allen have their fourth debate scheduled for tonight. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

Set to face each other in their fourth debate tonight, former Govs. George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) each released television ads today that push the central messages of their respective Senate campaigns. Full story

Virginia: Tim Kaine Posts $4.5M Third-Quarter Haul

Tim Kaine (left) had his best fundraising quarter yet in the Virginia Senate race. He faces former Sen. George Allen next month. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 11:35 a.m. | Former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) continued his fundraising dominance in the third quarter, raising a personal-best $4.5 million for his Senate bid.

According to a campaign release, Kaine has now raised “nearly $15 million total from more than 40,000 individual donors, including 10,000 new donors in the last six weeks.” His strong fundraising allowed the campaign to but an additional $3 million in television time for the final five weeks of the campaign, increasing his total fall buy to about $7.5 million. He still had $1 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Full story

Virginia: Another Poll Finds Tim Kaine in Front

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A new independent poll found former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) ahead of former Gov. George Allen (R) by 5 points in the race for the open Senate seat.

Kaine led 49 percent to 44 percent in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday. Seven percent were undecided.

It is the latest in a string of polls that show Kaine pulling out to a significant lead against Allen in what’s been a margin-of-error race for the past year and a half. The poll was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1 among 969 likely voters. It had a 3.1-point margin of error.