Remainders: Recruitment Woes

Here’s what you may have missed “At the Races” on Monday …

• Former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin announced on her Facebook page that she will not seek the open Senate seat in South Dakota.
• A GOP poll found that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has a slight lead over likely Republican Senate candidates Joe Miller and Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. Palin, however, has not indicated that she will run for the seat.
• A crowded GOP primary in West Virginia’s 2nd District may be likely. The seat is being vacated by Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who announced last year that she’s running for the state’s open Senate seat following Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s retirement.
• David Schwarz, a former staffer for Republican Rep. Jack Kingston, is running for his former boss’ seat in Georgia’s 1st District. Kingston left the seat open when he announced he was running for the Peach State’s open Senate seat.

What we’re mulling on Monday …

• Two new polls out in New Hampshire found Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., has a double-digit lead in a hypothetical match-up with former Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.
• North Carolina state Sen. Malcolm Graham became the first candidate to announce he will run for Rep. Mel Watt’s seat. Watt was nominated by President Barack Obama to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency, although he has yet to be confirmed and has yet to resign his seat. If confirmed, Watt’s House departure would likely create a crowded special election.

Sarah Palin Leads Senate Poll for Alaska GOP Primary

(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has a small lead over two likely Republican Senate candidates in a hypothetical primary matchup, according to a GOP poll.

Palin has given no indication that she’s close to returning to public service, including next year in a challenge to Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. But the poll, conducted by GOP firm Harper Polling on behalf of the Tea Party Leadership Fund, found that a majority of Alaska Republicans still view her in a positive light.

With no indication of a Palin candidacy, the more telling news in the poll was that Joe Miller, who ran for Senate in 2010, had the worst image among the three Republicans and trailed Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell in a two-way race. Treadwell led 45 percent to 26 percent, with 29 percent unsure. Full story

Super PACs Fuel GOP Civil War

Republicans who have long pushed for campaign finance deregulation are now paying for one of its consequences: the rise of influential conservative super PACs vying for the soul of a fractured GOP.

That Republicans crushed by the 2012 election results are feuding over what went wrong and what comes next is nothing new. Less noticed has been the big money bankrolling GOP factions and the influential new super PACs and outside groups that hold the party’s future in their hands.

More than a dozen such groups have sprung up since Election Day, CQ Weekly reports this week — some promoting centrists, minorities or liberalized immigration rules, others championing conservatives at odds with “establishment” party leaders. As the story notes: Full story

Monday Remainders: Mark Sanford and Sons

Sanford had a rough week on the campaign trail. (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images File Photo)

What we’re mulling on Monday …

• #MIsen: Michigan’s Democratic primary waters are clear now — so when will Rep. Gary Peters jump into the Senate race? Debbie Dingell announced in a Saturday Facebook post that she will not seek the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich. No word yet from Peters on an announcement.
• #SC01: Not everyone has abandoned former Gov. Mark Sanford’s special election bid. National Right to Life PAC spent almost $6,000 on mailers for Sanford, according to online records with the Federal Election Commission.
• #HIsen: Your move, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will back Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary, via the Honolulu Star Advertiser.

What you might have missed “At the Races” on Monday…. Full story

Joe Miller: GOP Establishment Not ‘Terribly Excited to See Me’ #AKsen

Alaska Republican Joe Miller said he is leaning toward once again seeking his party’s nomination for Senate — likely to the chagrin of some GOP leaders in Anchorage and Washington, D.C.

“Certainly those in the establishment of the Republican Party aren’t going to be terribly excited to see me,” Miller said in an interview with CQ Roll Call last week.

Miller said he’s already met with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran, a fellow Kansas native, and described their conversation as “frank.”

In 2010, the attorney and tea party favorite won the GOP Senate nomination by defeating Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski. After the primary, national Republicans publicly supported Miller, but his campaign quickly faltered in the general election and Murkowski won re-election as a write-in candidate.

Last week, Miller launched an exploratory committee to challenge Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, a top GOP target in 2014. He’s currently shoring up grass-roots support and donations to ensure he has what it takes to win it all this time.

Full story

Alaska: GOP Recruit Concerned About State Party Turmoil

A top GOP recruit to challenge Sen. Mark Begich of Alaska is worried the turmoil roiling the state Republican Party is putting him and other potential candidates at a distinct disadvantage.

Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who is actively exploring a bid for Senate, said the state party is way behind its Democratic counterparts when it comes to opposition research and rapid response — two of its key responsibilities with no challenger currently in the race.

“The Republican Party at this point is not yet doing what it should be doing — no matter who the Republican candidate is going to be — to be prepared for a campaign battle,” Treadwell said in a phone interview. Full story

Alaska: Joe Miller Launching Senate Exploratory Committee

Joe Miller, the tea-party-backed Alaska Republican who lost a 2010 Senate race, announced on Sunday that he is launching an exploratory committee as he considers another Senate campaign.

The announcement comes just two days after first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Begich announced raising almost $1 million in the first fundraising quarter of the cycle. It also comes after a tumultuous week at the state Republican Party, which ousted yet another chairman.

Full story

Alaska: Begich Raises $948K in First Fundraising Quarter

Begich announced his fundraising for the first quarter. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, raised just under $1 million in the first quarter of the year, according to a copy of his fundraising report obtained by CQ Roll Call.

Begich raised $948,000 from January through March and had more than $1.5 million in cash on hand at the end of last month.

That’s a solid start for the targeted incumbent Democrat, especially considering the Frontier State’s relatively inexpensive media markets. (See more fundraising totals in Roll Call.)

Full story

Hagan Latest 2014 Democrat to Come Out for Gay Marriage

Hagan is the latest Senate Democrat to come out in favor of gay marriage rights. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Supreme Court’s focus this week on gay marriage has put Democratic senators seeking re-election in 2014 under a microscope, with no shortage of media outlets asking their offices about evolving views on the issue.

With the court taking up the constitutionality of a portion of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which restricted the federal definition of marriage to opposite sex couples, several Democratic senators have determined in recent days that now is the time to make public revised or clarified stands on the marriage issue. Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina, who is up for re-election in 2014, became the latest Democrat to announce her support for gay marriage Wednesday morning in an interview with the Raleigh News & Observer.

Full story

NRA Targets Democratic Senators Up in 2014 With Local Newspaper Ads

The National Rifle Association will target several senators up for re-election in 2014, including Pryor. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Rifle Association will launch a print advertising campaign targeting mostly Democratic senators up for re-election in 2014, according to sources close to the group.

On Thursday, full-page ads are scheduled to run in local newspapers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina and West Virginia. They will be supplemented by digital advertising in these states and 10 others, including Alaska, Colorado, Montana, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

Additionally, the group has scheduled full-page ads to run Feb. 25 in regional editions of USA Today, reaching parts of 15 states.

The campaign is estimated to cost north of $375,000, sources said. Full story

Alaska: Begich Raised $336K in 4th Quarter

Begich has almost $1 million in cash on hand for the start of the campaign cycle. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democratic Sen. Mark Begich brought in more than $300,000 in the fourth quarter, giving him almost $1 million in cash on hand to kick off his 2014 re-election campaign cycle.

Begich is one of six Senate Democrats seeking re-election in a state the president lost last year, making him one of his party’s most vulnerable members of the cycle. Roll Call rates this race as a Tossup.

Several Republicans are taking serious looks at challenging him in 2014. Potential GOP opponents include Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who said in December that he formed an exploratory committee for the race, and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller.

Full story

GOP Outside Group Makes Issue Ad Buy on Fiscal Cliff

The GOP-aligned American Action Network has launched an online advertising campaign urging Beltway policy insiders to support congressional Republicans during the fiscal cliff debate.

The online digital campaign includes Web videos and search, mobile and display ads. The money behind the buy is in the tens of thousands of dollars. The group’s newest Web video features economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who is associated with AAN’s sister organization, American Action Forum.

Holtz-Eakin is a former Congressional Budget Office director and was a top domestic adviser to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., during his 2008 presidential campaign.

Updated 11:29 a.m. | Crossroads GPS is making an effort on this front as well, with a $240,000 local radio ad buy targeting five Democratic senators who are in races Roll Call rates as Tossups.

Those radio spots are airing in target=”_blank”>Alaska, targeting Sen. Mark Begich; target=”_blank”>Louisiana, targeting Sen. Mary L. Landrieu; target=”_blank”>North Carolina, targeting Sen. Kay Hagan; target=”_blank”>South Dakota, targeting Sen. Tim Johnson and West Virginia, targeting Sen. Jay Rockefeller.

Alaska: Treadwell One Step Closer to Senate Bid

Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell said at a GOP luncheon in Fairbanks on Friday that he is forming a Senate exploratory committee as he considers whether to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014, The Associated Press reported.

CQ Roll Call previously reported that Treadwell had begun making calls to line up support for a likely Senate bid. He’s one of many Republicans looking to challenge Begich in the solidly Republican state, and the field is only beginning to take shape.

Begich was first elected in 2008, defeating Republican incumbent Ted Stevens one week after Stevens was found guilty of corruption charges in federal court. That ruling was thrown out five months later. Begich, then the mayor of Anchorage, won by less than 4,000 votes.

Treadwell, who in 2001 was appointed by President George W. Bush to the United States Arctic Research Commission, was elected lieutenant governor in 2010.

Inside the 2014 Senate Races

Roll Call’s initial Senate ratings outlook projects a potentially bullish cycle for Republicans, with an opportunity to recapture the majority for the first time in eight years.

But that’s exactly how things looked two years before the 2012 elections, when Democrats surprised many with victories in Missouri and North Dakota on their way to picking up two seats. So the challenge for the GOP and incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas is to capitalize on their opportunities.

That and how voters feel about President Barack Obama in 2014 could determine how the parties fare at the ballot box less than two years from now. Democrats won their current majority in 2006, in the second midterm election under President George W. Bush.

Republicans are hoping Obama’s second midterm is similarly kind to them, if not equal to the president’s 2010 midterm shellacking, when the GOP won seven seats (and control of the House) despite beginning the cycle as the underdog.

Full story

Alaska: Republicans Lining Up to Take on Mark Begich

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

At least two well-known Republicans are actively considering challenges to Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, who enters the 2014 cycle as one of the most endangered incumbents.

According to Republican insiders in the state, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller are making calls and lining up support for potential Senate bids. Former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman and Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan are also viewed as potential Begich challengers. Gov. Sean Parnell might be interested as well, insiders said.

GOP consultant Andrew Halcro said it might be easier to ask which Republicans aren’t considering taking on Begich. But, he added, Begich will be more difficult to defeat than most think after striking a moderate tone and working hard during the past four years.

Begich is running for his first re-election. In 2008, he defeated Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, one week after Stevens was found guilty of corruption charges in federal court — a ruling that was thrown out five months later. Begich, then mayor of Anchorage, won by less than 4,000 votes.

GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried Alaska last week by 13 points.