Remainders: Recruitment Woes

Here’s what you may have missed “At the Races” on Monday …

• Former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin announced on her Facebook page that she will not seek the open Senate seat in South Dakota.
• A GOP poll found that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has a slight lead over likely Republican Senate candidates Joe Miller and Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. Palin, however, has not indicated that she will run for the seat.
• A crowded GOP primary in West Virginia’s 2nd District may be likely. The seat is being vacated by Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who announced last year that she’s running for the state’s open Senate seat following Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s retirement.
• David Schwarz, a former staffer for Republican Rep. Jack Kingston, is running for his former boss’ seat in Georgia’s 1st District. Kingston left the seat open when he announced he was running for the Peach State’s open Senate seat.

What we’re mulling on Monday …

• Two new polls out in New Hampshire found Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., has a double-digit lead in a hypothetical match-up with former Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.
• North Carolina state Sen. Malcolm Graham became the first candidate to announce he will run for Rep. Mel Watt’s seat. Watt was nominated by President Barack Obama to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency, although he has yet to be confirmed and has yet to resign his seat. If confirmed, Watt’s House departure would likely create a crowded special election.

New Hampshire: Sununu Forgoes Comeback Senate Bid

Former Sen. John E. Sununu, R-N.H., will not challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to a rematch, he told the  the New Hampshire Union Leader in an interview Friday.

His announcement opens the floodgates for Granite State Republicans looking at the race. Many potential GOP candidates were waiting for Sununu to make a decision about the race before announcing their intentions.

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Empty Inbox? Join Gillibrand’s Campaign Email List

(Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y. is a prolific pen pal.

The Empire State’s junior senator has sent emails to her supporters at a copious clip in the past month — sending a total of four messages just this week. Democratic operatives who monitor campaign email traffic say Gillibrand’s operation emails supporters more often than almost anyone else in the Senate.

“Outside of leadership, probably yes,” said one Democratic digital consultant, who added that the senator might send more messages than the president’s campaign operation.

Why the inbox barrage? It’s not because she has a tough re-election anytime soon. Gillibrand won’t face another Senate race until 2018 and she’s a strong fundraiser, pulling in $15 million for her 2012 re-election, a contest she won by 45 points.  Full story

Remainders: If You Got It, Flaunt It. Early.

If you got it, flaunt it. And in campaign fundraising, the best flaunt their numbers early.

There are several days yet until campaigns are required to file their first quarter fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission. Typically, only campaigns with hauls worth bragging about release their figures early.

Here’s are the congressional campaign fundraising figures that caught our eye on Thursday:

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New Hampshire: Local Republicans Skeptical on Scott Brown

Brown did not rule out running for Senate in New Hampshire. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Updated 4:14 p.m. | National Republicans are encouraged by former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown’s interest in the New Hampshire Senate race.

But Granite State Republicans are surprised and, in some cases, privately skeptical about him challenging Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2014.

“It was a big surprise to me,” former state GOP Chairman Jack Kimball said. “I saw the article. I read it. It was the last thing on my mind with Scott Brown being a Massachusetts resident.”

“He wasn’t even on the radar,” Kimball added, echoing comments from multiple conversations with Granite State GOP strategists.

(See also in Roll Call: New Hampshire: Democrats Use Brown to Fundraise)

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New Hampshire: Democrats Use Brown to Fundraise

Brown did not rule out a comeback bid in New Hampshire. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Regardless of whether former Sen. Scott P. Brown, R-Mass., actually runs for Senate in New Hampshire, local Democrats are capitalizing on his recent stated interest in the race.

Both Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and the New Hampshire Democratic Party are using the prospect of a Brown bid for Senate in the Granite State to try to fundraise.

“This is serious: Brown’s campaign spent $40 million in 2012,” a Shaheen email stated. “Most of that went to lie-filled attack ads. He’ll try the same thing against Jeanne — and with Wall Street bankers Karl Rove and the Tea Party Super PACs behind him, he could raise even more.” Full story

NRA Targets Democratic Senators Up in 2014 With Local Newspaper Ads

The National Rifle Association will target several senators up for re-election in 2014, including Pryor. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Rifle Association will launch a print advertising campaign targeting mostly Democratic senators up for re-election in 2014, according to sources close to the group.

On Thursday, full-page ads are scheduled to run in local newspapers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina and West Virginia. They will be supplemented by digital advertising in these states and 10 others, including Alaska, Colorado, Montana, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

Additionally, the group has scheduled full-page ads to run Feb. 25 in regional editions of USA Today, reaching parts of 15 states.

The campaign is estimated to cost north of $375,000, sources said. Full story

EMILY’s List Endorses Hagan and Shaheen

Shaheen has received the backing of EMILY's List. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

EMILY’s List, the Democratic group that backs female candidates who support abortion rights, has endorsed Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

“For the past four years, Senators Hagan and Shaheen have been tireless advocates for women and families in Congress,” EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock said in a press release. “Both became the first Democratic women to represent their state in the Senate with the help of the EMILY’s List Community,

Shaheen enters the cycle in much better re-election shape than Hagan. New Hampshire delivered for President Barack Obama, who won the swing state by 6 points, and both of its House seats swung back to the Democrats in 2012. More importantly, there is no obvious Republican challenger to Shaheen at this point. Hagan is one of the most vulnerable members of the Democratic caucus, and her state went for Mitt Romney in 2012, despite a strong Obama ground operation.

Few will dispute that EMILY’s List is riding high after the 2012 cycle. The organization dramatically increased its membership, in large part to a reaction from Republican candidate gaffes and anti-abortion policies.

New Hampshire: Guinta Opens Door to Senate, Comeback Bids

Guinta has not ruled out running for Senate in 2014. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Outgoing Rep. Frank Guinta, R-N.H., will consider running statewide in 2014, perhaps challenging Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

“My name comes up for Senate, House and governor,” Guinta told Roll Call Thursday in a phone interview. “Obviously, it’s nice to be thought of in that way. Quite frankly, at this point, it’s something that I will focus on sometime next year.”

But two well-placed New Hampshire GOP sources noted that Guinta, the former mayor of Manchester, expressed a particular interest in the Senate race. Roll Call rates the contest as Leans Democratic.

Republicans view the seat as enticing because the party not controlling the White House historically picks up seats in midterm elections. What’s more, the Granite State has proved itself as the ultimate barometer of Congressional races, electing a new set of House Members in three of the past four cycles.

Guinta emphasized that he thought it was too early to select a race, but said he plans to “see how things play out and keep options open.”

“I’m certainly going to take some time in 2013 to assess and make a determination at some point if I would run,” Guinta said.

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Inside the 2014 Senate Races

Roll Call’s initial Senate ratings outlook projects a potentially bullish cycle for Republicans, with an opportunity to recapture the majority for the first time in eight years.

But that’s exactly how things looked two years before the 2012 elections, when Democrats surprised many with victories in Missouri and North Dakota on their way to picking up two seats. So the challenge for the GOP and incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas is to capitalize on their opportunities.

That and how voters feel about President Barack Obama in 2014 could determine how the parties fare at the ballot box less than two years from now. Democrats won their current majority in 2006, in the second midterm election under President George W. Bush.

Republicans are hoping Obama’s second midterm is similarly kind to them, if not equal to the president’s 2010 midterm shellacking, when the GOP won seven seats (and control of the House) despite beginning the cycle as the underdog.

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