Democratic Poll: Freshman Holds Minor Lead Over Carl DeMaio
Posted at 1:16 p.m. on July 24, 2014
Freshman Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., holds a slight lead over his GOP challenger, former San Diego City Councilmember Carl DeMaio, more than three months from Election Day, in a new poll conducted for House Majority PAC and provided first to CQ Roll Call.
Peters leads DeMaio, 48 percent to 43 percent — slightly outside the survey’s 4.9 point margin of error. The poll was conducted by GBA Strategies and surveyed 400 likely voters via live telephone between July 20-22.
This race in California’s 52nd District, located in and around San Diego, is a top Republican target in November. The National Republican Congressional Committee has touted DeMaio as a top recruit in the district that President Barack Obama won with 52 percent last cycle.
Here’s the full survey memo:
House Majority PAC Poll by Emily Cahn
Both Peters and DeMaio are sitting on large war chests: Peters had more than $1.9 million in the bank as of June 30, while DeMaio had more than $1.4 million. DeMaio has placed $1.2 million in television advertising buys for the fall.
The NRCC and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees have reserved television airtime for the race as well — a sign both parties expect a competitive contest. The NRCC reserved $1.7 million in television airtime, while the DCCC reserved $1.4 million.
House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC that commissioned the poll, also reserved more than $510,000 in fall advertising.
Combined, operatives expect this race will be one of the most expensive House contests of the cycle.
Last cycle, Peters defeated Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Calif., by a 2.5-point margin.
California’s 52nd District is rated a Tossup contest by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.