Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
September 18, 2014

Democratic Poll: Freshman Holds Minor Lead Over Carl DeMaio

Democratic Poll: Freshman Holds Minor Lead Over Carl DeMaio

Scott Peters is a freshman Democrat. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Freshman Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., holds a slight lead over his GOP challenger, former San Diego City Councilmember Carl DeMaio, more than three months from Election Day, in a new poll conducted for House Majority PAC and provided first to CQ Roll Call.

Peters leads DeMaio, 48 percent to 43 percent — slightly outside the survey’s 4.9 point margin of error. The poll was conducted by GBA Strategies and surveyed 400 likely voters via live telephone between July 20-22.

This race in California’s 52nd District, located in and around San Diego, is a top Republican target in November. The National Republican Congressional Committee has touted DeMaio as a top recruit in the district that President Barack Obama won with 52 percent last cycle. 

Here’s the full survey memo:

House Majority PAC Poll by Emily Cahn

Both Peters and DeMaio are sitting on large war chests: Peters had more than $1.9 million in the bank as of June 30, while DeMaio had more than $1.4 million. DeMaio has placed $1.2 million in television advertising buys for the fall.

The NRCC and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees have reserved television airtime for the race as well — a sign both parties expect a competitive contest. The NRCC reserved $1.7 million in television airtime, while the DCCC reserved $1.4 million.

House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC that commissioned the poll, also reserved more than $510,000 in fall advertising.

Combined, operatives expect this race will be one of the most expensive House contests of the cycle.

Last cycle, Peters defeated Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Calif., by a 2.5-point margin.

California’s 52nd District is rated a Tossup contest by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

  • terjeanderson

    “Democrat poll”???

    Really Politico, if you are going to pretend be anything other than a RNC house organ, the least you could do is not use the insulting Republican terminology designed to denigrate Democrats.

    “Democrat” is a noun, not an adjective. If you want to use a modifier for a poll, you need an adjective not a noun, and in this case the proper word is “Democratic”.

    But I guess we’ve come not to expect any better.

  • terjeanderson

    “Democrat poll”???

    Really Politico, if you are going to pretend be anything other than a RNC house organ, the least you could do is not use the insulting Republican terminology designed to denigrate Democrats.

    “Democrat” is a noun, not an adjective. If you want to use a modifier for a poll, you need an adjective not a noun, and in this case the proper word is “Democratic”.

    But I guess we’ve come not to expect any better.

  • Alexander Lee

    This poll is a joke sample size of 400… lol

    • terjeanderson

      Using the widely accepted standards of public opinion research, 400 is a perfectly good sample size for a Congressional District. It produces a confidence level of 95% and a confidence interval (basically the same as “margin of error”) of under 5%.

      http://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html

      You’ll find that most credible pollsters – including those working for both parties – routinely work with samples of this size for races like this.

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