Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
May 4, 2015

Top 10 Most Vulnerable Senators

elections 2014

In 2014 Senate races, Pryor is one of the most vulnerable Democrats. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Three months before Election Day, it’s clear some senators may not return to Congress after the midterms — and that’s mostly good news for Republicans.

The GOP’s path to the Senate majority includes a mix of open seats and targeted Democratic incumbents. The two most vulnerable seats are in South Dakota and West Virginia, where Democratic senators are retiring. Republicans also have opportunities in open seats in Iowa and, to a lesser degree, Michigan.

But even if they are victorious in those states, the GOP must defeat at least two incumbents to reach the net six seats needed for control.

Luckily for Republicans, Democrats make up the vast majority of endangered senators seeking re-election. The GOP has a lengthy catalog of states where it has an opportunity to win, though there is a wide gap betweenthe  No. 1 and No. 10 most vulnerable senators — who are ordered by most likely to lose.

Roll Call’s “10 Most Vulnerable Senators” list will be updated monthly ahead of the Nov. 4 elections. For now, here is where the incumbents stand:

1. Sen. John Walsh, D-Mont.
Running for the former seat of Democrat Max Baucus, Montana’s appointed senator was the most vulnerable incumbent prior to a New York Times report that he plagiarized a significant portion of a paper written for his master’s program at the Army War College seven years ago.

In a state that already leans Republican, Walsh is now firmly planted at the top of this list as he faces a top GOP recruit. Rep. Steve Daines raised more, spent more and had more in cash on hand at the end of the second fundraising quarter.

2. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark.
Pryor would have made the top spot had Baucus not resigned to become ambassador to China, with Walsh appointed to take his place.

President Barack Obama took just 37 percent in Arkansas in 2012, and his approval rating there isn’t much better. Beyond that, Republicans landed a top recruit in freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, an Army veteran with two Harvard degrees and support from across his party’s broad spectrum.

Pryor’s rock-solid brand name could outweigh the reddening of Arkansas and the unfavorable national environment. He has a path, and because of that Pryor could conceivably drop on this list as the election nears. The question is, who surpasses him?

3. Sen. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La.
The Landrieu campaign is pushing to end the election on Nov. 4, when the three-term senator will face Rep. Bill Cassidy and a couple other Republicans in a jungle primary. But if she fails to eclipse 50 percent, it’s hard to predict what will happen in a one-on-one runoff.

Her fate in a Dec. 6 contest could depend on how the rest of the Senate races play out. If Democrats will retain control of the chamber no matter what happens in Louisiana, Landrieu’s odds improve. If Republicans have picked up enough seats to take the majority, Landrieu could be serving her final term.

4. Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C.
Hagan’s approval rating is underwater in a red-leaning state where Obama’s is too, and outside groups have already started spending in what is expected to be one of the most expensive races this cycle.

But state Speaker Thom Tillis, Hagan’s Republican opponent, is off to slow a start. After narrowly avoiding a runoff, he headed immediately into the legislative session, where he has been stuck for the past dozen weeks. He finished the second quarter with just $1.5 million in the bank; Hagan had almost six times that amount.

5. Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska
Begich’s 2008 defeat of legendary Republican Sen. Ted Stevens was by fewer than 4,000 votes and came just days after the incumbent’s conviction on federal corruption charges. Six years later, Begich will face one of a trio of prospective Republican challengers facing off in an Aug. 19 primary: Dan Sullivan, Mead Treadwell or Joe Miller.

After a pro-Begich super PAC has spent months slamming Sullivan on the airwaves, the campaign may see its best shot at the Ohio-born, former commissioner of the state Natural Resources department. But Begich has already been hit considerably on TV as well, and there will be plenty more outside spending on the state’s cheap airwaves in the final weeks.

6. Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo.
Udall was supposed to have a fairly easy coast to re-election. Then Rep. Cory Gardner made a last minute decision to enter the race, and now Udall has a fight on his hands. Polls put the two in a statistical tie.

With the entry of a strong Republican candidate came the flood of outside money to oust the Democratic senator and to protect him. Udall’s campaign went negative against Gardner in their very first ad. In Colorado, a truly purple state with libertarian tendencies, the negativity is probably there for the duration.

7. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
The lone Republican on this list, McConnell is again involved in an expensive and close race, as he was in 2008. Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes is one of the top fundraisers in the country, largely because she’s challenging the Senate minority leader.

McConnell has eschewed assistance from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which he wants to focus on picking up a net six seats, winning Senate control and making him majority leader. He’ll first need to get past Grimes in a race that promises to be close but in which Republicans hold the advantage.

8. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.
Shaheen drew a strong opponent when former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown moved one state over and decided to run for Senate. But Brown has struggled to translate his much-lauded likeability to his newly adopted home. Shaheen, meanwhile, remains popular, and she has a healthy lead over Brown in most polls and in fundraising.

New Hampshire Republicans say Brown’s fortunes depend on the national climate: If it is a powerful wave year for Republicans, he will likely win. If it is not, Shaheen is headed back to the Senate.

9. Al Franken, D-Minn.
Franken is sitting on $5 million in a state Obama won twice, giving him a decided edge in his race for re-election. But Franken drew a strong Republican opponent in Mike McFadden, a businessman with fundraising chops to make it competitive, and the personal resources to help his campaign along. Even Minnesota Democrats acknowledge it will likely be tight. But, as of right now, Franken is probably headed back to the Senate.

10. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.
Merkley is likely headed back to the Senate. Recent polls put him about 15 points ahead of Republican Monica Wehby, and he has a hefty cash advantage.

Obama won Oregon by double digits twice. But just six years ago, Merkley was the underdog heading into the final three months of his race against Republican Sen. Gordon Smith. Merkley won, but narrowly, toppling Smith by 3 points.

Oregon has also seen the uglier side of the new health care law. The state scrapped its state-run exchange in April — and Wehby, a doctor, could capitalize on such a climate.

Related Stories:

6 Reasons Senate Republicans Should Be Optimistic — and Concerned About Election Day

NRSC Chairman: Senate Map Has Expanded to 12 States

Mark Pryor Up 2 Points in Democratic Poll

McConnell Declines NRSC Intervention for Re-Election

Roll Call Election Map: Race Ratings for Every Seat

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  • ZenderTranscender

    All but one is Obamafied, and he (McConnell) deserves to lose because of the huffy, macho way he set the hateful pattern for the GOP after Obama was elected.They all need to go.

    • WTFUAMERIKA

      Obamao is the hater. He has nothing but contempt for us. I wouldn’t expect you to see it. Trying to rewrite history like progressives have been all along. Remember the kids singing to dear leader. Mm,Mm,Mm. Barack’s insane Yo MaMa. His apology tour. How is it you people stay loyal to a man who wants to destroy us? Democrats are traitors that’s how. The Fascist Destructocrat take over of our health care and his bleeding the Middle class is fine with you right? Of course it is. You’re a communist just like him.

      • ZenderTranscender

        You’re way over the line. You don’t know me and have no idea what you’re spewing and spattering about. I don’t bow down to any politician or political party. That’s for fools. I think for myself.
        You’re doing a party line blather.

        • WTFUAMERIKA

          Nope. I’ve no loyalty to establishment republicans. Actually they Piece me off more than the Commie control freak progressive lib liars. They’re backstabbers. What line? The moveable red line?
          defending Obama is indefensible. Where are you complaining about him? You’re one of “THEM”.
          You guys should really stop trying to pretend you’re not because it’s so obvious. I’ll believe you when you agree Obamao sucks.

          If you love your country you have to hate him.
          if you hate your country you have to love him.
          I see no “Gray” here.
          Hope is Chains. He lied about that too. Has he not yet earned the name of DOMESTIC ENEMY?

  • Gary Doan

    Al Franken has zero chance. He won on a funky recount in 2008, a year the Democrats dominated the elections. I doubt they can find uncounted votes in a poll workers trunk twice.

    • ARMY1971

      No funky recount just the Dumbocrats doing what they always do stealing elections.

    • brickman

      You areREALLY going to be disappointed in November.

      • Bcrew

        Maybe about Frankenmuth but not when the Democrats lose the senate. Sounds like you’ll be the one really disappointed.

        • brickman

          I’m not a Democrat so it won’t bother me. I just won’t drink GOP Kool-Aid regarding Shaheen, Franken, Merkley and Warner.

          • Bcrew

            Ya you’re an “independent” who just happens to vote Democrat 98% of the time and likes criticizing conservatives. Hilarious.

          • brickman

            I’m not an independent. I’m a registered Republican. I do criticize conservatives sometimes. Sometimes they’re idiots. The “war on whites” is the latest example. I was once elected to a town council seat as a Republican and in the last election(2013) I voted for 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats. They all won. I’ m in the group in the center that decides elections. I would have voted for Jon Runyan again for Congress but he’s retiring.

            Franken leads by more than Abbott does in Texas. Only people blinded by partisanship think that McFadden or Davis will win.I’m sure that you think that the dems who think that Wendy Davis will win are nuts. If you think that Franken will lose you are on the other side of the crazy coin.

          • Bcrew

            So the “war on whites” thing is stupid but the “war on women” thing is not just as? You sound like one of those people that try to act like you’re moderate for the purpose of making yourself look enlightened. We need conservatives in the Republican Party. Runyon was a conservative. There are no conservatives in the Democratic Party. They are intolerant of conservative principles. Voting for Democrats is ignorant. You’re the one in the center who decides elections? Like the low info voters that got Obama elected and let a clown like Harry Reid run the Senate? You must be proud.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            You lie like a Liberal. You’re NO Republican. You’re the enemy.

          • brickman

            You accuse without having any facts like a conservative.You didn’t think I was the enemy when I served in the army protecting your sorry butt.I AM A REGISTERED REPUBLICAN. Go talk to the wind(your icon)!

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            RINOS have to go too. You’re a Destructocrat in disguise. Accuse without facts? Is that like Destructocrats calling anyone who doesn’t approve of Dear Leaders Destruction of The U.S.A. a Racist? Yup. Appropriate Icon for the times isn’t it? You’re not mad about the V.A. MURDERING our vets? Our Wreckretary of State served. He’s a traitor from way back. He built his political career on being one. You post like an Alinskyite. Why in the world would I think you’re a liar?

          • brickman

            You still offer NO proof to back anything you say. You remind me of Trotskyite agitators that I used to see in NYC in the sixties. You offer NO facts about anything but think that if you make up words that only you think are clever that your engaging in debate. YOU’RE NOT. To go back to the beginning I never mentioned Obama or okayed the murder of vets( of which I am one) but I stated that Al Franken was not going to lose in his reelection bid and that anyone who thinks so is going to be disappointed. I stand by that.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Nice projection there brickhead. There is no engaging in debate with you control freak God playing progressive libs. You do it by design. Alinsky 101.
            Are you going to threaten riots again if the Destructocrats lose the Midterms?
            Proof? it’s happening right before your eyes. Not my fault if you’re blind.
            You’re a lab rat in the progressives social engineering experiment.

          • brickman

            All you do is make up outlandish charges and call people names. Tell me when Democrats rioted after losing midterms in 1946, 1966, 1994 or 2010. You can’t because your whole rant is made up crap.

            It’s interesting that a term that Trotsky made up in the 1920s appears in the 1907 Oxford English Dictionary.

            I await your next round of ad hominems and baseless charges.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            See how stupid you are. You don’t remember the threats to riot if Obamao lost?
            You’re right about that 1907 That’s one thing wrong with the post. But he’s the first to Utilize it.
            I would have added that fact in but didn’t think it was necessary. I’ll make sure I clarify in future posts.
            Now that you researched that why don’t you research YOUR fallacies.

          • brickman

            Richard Henry Pratt used the term in 1902. That’s the first usage cited in that dictionary. Funny how the stupid one ( me) has all the facts and the smart one ( you)has nothing but invective and horsehockey.

            And as per the original topic, Al Franken will win in Minnesota .

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Self flattery is no flattery. Self aggrandizing is a Fascist Progressive Control Freak Commie Trait.
            Just ask your Presidente (My Dictator).
            Why don’t you study the origins of Political Correctness, Social Justice and the rest of the manipulating terms you Christian persecuting Freedom Hating Anti-American Pigs use?
            Avoiding the threats to riot question though aren’t you? You demonic Alinskyites like to avoid questions that you can’t answer with lies. (He dedicated his book to Lucifer)
            You also avoid answering questions you don’t want to by giving an answer to the question you would prefer instead.
            If you’re so smart why are you so stupid? There is no logical debate with you Progressive Fascist Control Freak Commie Totalitarian Christian Persecuting Thieving Tyrannical Lib Pigs.
            You’re a cult. A cult of fools that willfully surrender yourselves to the religion Of Big Government.
            If Franken does lose will you do the world a favor and slice your wrists for us? I’m done with this idiotic circular conversation. Seems to be the only kind you can have with your Cult. Not surprising.
            You didn’t research your Fallacies which you accept as reality either. I’m not calling names. Calling you what you really are is speaking “Truth to Power ” as Nancy Pelosi would say. Tell me. If someone offed the witch could we say it’s a late term abortion and call it a day?
            Since you little antagonistic A.Holes always have to get the last word in I’ll let you have the last statement or this will go on FOREVER!!! It’s the nature of your control freak cult.
            “The Fate of all mankind I fear is in the hands of fools.” Now go “talk to the wind” Progressive scum.
            See the pictures that inspired my Icon?

  • Patriotic American

    If they voted for Obamacare, then they need to go! Period!

    • Dan Miler

      Coming from someone who obviously knows NOTHING about Obamacare.

      • Jim r

        Nobody knows what’s in Obamacare- Nancy Pelosi-we have to pass it to see what’ s in it. Obama-illegally-signed 25 executive order making changes to the law.

      • Rick C

        I know that Obama campaigned on reducing premiums by $2500 a year. How’s that working out so far?

        • Dan Miler

          Pretty damn good. I have the best coverage I have ever had and my premiums are excellent. So are everyone’s that I know of. I hear a lot of hootin and hollarin but no actual proof of anything negative.

          if you don’t believe me, feel free to send me an email address and I will show you my premiums and recent doctor and hospital visits, and emergency room visits, along with prescription prices. Then, I will emplore you to show me actual proof of Obamacare affecting you negatively.

          But… in the end we both know that you will simply ignore this offer. :) have a great day!

          • ThomasA

            Well yeah, people on welfare love it when the government gives them other people’s money. Of course you’re happy.

          • Dan Miler

            Welfare? ROFL! I have never been on welfare. Anyone making less than 90k/year is eligible for subsidies. Your statement goes to show how little you know about the law. Guess that’s what happens when you watch Faux News tho.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Said the useful idiot.
            Why is Obamao again unconstitutionally kicking the employee mandate into 2015?
            Maybe to fool us into not exterminating the Destructocrats in Nov, so he can finish with his Destruction of our Country.
            Nice try. The latest Liberal ploy is to come to a forum well after people are done posting and interject your lies without response? You people are traitors to your Country and fellow Americans. Liberals just suck period.

          • thegreyman

            Well this cancer patient’s coverage, along with every other veterinarian with the AVMA, was terminated due to PPACA. I now have 40% higher premiums, much higher deductibles. 18,000 vets were dropped, about 20% of all of us in the US. Our family members are not included in that total.

            You want proof Dan? Here: http://www.avmaghlit.org/content/userfiles/files/FAQ12_18_2012.pdf

            And we’re just one tiny group among millions who lost their coverage.

            I worked hard all my life to achieve something, and provide for my family. In the stroke of a pen, Sen. Landrieu stole a couple of decades worth of work from me. Her health care liaison, Peter, personally told me it “wasn’t fair” that I had good coverage, even though I’d busted my butt for it. Later, they said that my coverage, that worked their ass off helping me through 2 cancer surgeries, was “substandard”.

            So tell me, Dan: why did my life have to be risked just so you could have a freebie?

          • jefflll

            Proof? How’s this? My sister was one of those that was self employed and lost her insurance under the small employer mandate. With OCare she was going to have to pay way more than double her original premiums, with a $10,000 out of pocket deductible before the insurance kicked in, and her network for care was so narrow that the policy was worthless. She is now uninsured and will take the IRS penalty, as she can no longer afford to pay the premiums, when added with the fact that in past years she has never spent $10k in medical expenses in a single year ($10k is her current OCare deductible).

            I have lost one of my specialty doctors whom I really like, as have my parents due to OCare. Both DRs stated that they could no longer make a profit and would in fact lose money due to having to hire extra personnel for their practices just to manage OCare compliance issues. Let me guess, you want them to work for free, right?

            My wife who is a senior RN works for a major “Not For Profit” hospital that may go out of business because of the Medicare cuts in reimbursements that make up a lot of their revenue and is making their budget untenable. This hospital is joined by approx 800 others across the nation that employ nearly 1 million people.

            So I have given three examples in mine and my family’s lives on how this law has negatively impacted us. These stories are unfolding across the nation and guess what? For every bad story is a voter who will want to hold someone accountable, like me and my family will. And since not one (R) voted for this crap, guess would WILL be held responsible?

            To change your post ending line a bit, “But… in the end we both know that you will simply ignore this proof. :) have a great day!”

          • Dan Miler

            Oh Jeff I had high hopes for you but unfortunately you lied. The small business mandate was delayed until at least 2015 even possibly 2016, so was the “IRS penalty”. That goes to show you how much you don’t know about Obamacare. Fortunately tho, most of us DO know the facts.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Delayed so the Democrats can STEAL the midterms like they did the last Fraudulent Presidential election?

          • Dan Miler

            Oh and it should be pointed out that Republicans are the ones pushing for cuts in Medicare. That is all, have a nice day.

            BTW my email is dm010772@gmail.com Show me screenshots. if you provide me with an email I will gladly show you screenshots of my premiums and copays.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            And here’s the Liberal lying propagandist again!

          • WhoaBigFella

            Effin deadbeat. Your premiums are subsidized, genius.

          • Dan Miler

            Everyone that makes less than 90k per year has subsidized premiums. I didn’t know that deadbeat meant making less than 90k. ROFL!!!

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            You’re unaware of the Federal courts judgment on subsidiaries right? Now Destructocrats just lie right to your face and don’t even care.
            Your Presidente (my Dictator) lies every time he opens his Progressive Control Freak Fascist mouth. So does his treasonous party. You don’t make $90,000 a year. You’re not smart enough too. You can’t see what a train wreck Obamao and his party are with their WAR ON THE MIDDLE CLASS? You must work for the Government or some other stupid leftist “Crime Organization”.

          • Dan Miler

            I like how you attempt to point out that I am not smart, while making numerous grammatical errors. LOL That sad part is that you aren’t intelligent enough to enjoy that very irony.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Speaks well of those Government Union controlled PUBLUK SKEWELS doesn’t it?
            We need separation of School and State. People are even to stupid to cross the street now.
            I call them sidewalk leapers. I knew how to cross in elementary school. I call them sidewalk leapers.
            That’s Progress? I’m smart enough to see through Obamao. You? Nope.

          • Rick C

            Great, so you and a few people you know are better off. Sucks for the several million people on the individual market who lost their doctor or their hospital, or had their rates go up, but at least you got yours!

          • Dan Miler

            Not millions. That’s what happens when you watch Faux News. You are misinformed.

          • Liberty’s Advocate

            It strikes me that according to Dan, everyone is misinformed but YOU. It is also generally evident that people like you who suffer from that contagious, debilitating and ultimately deadly disease of Liberalism are often times BRAIN DEAD before they remember to fall down. If you want to grow intellectually, Dan, you will have to learn to trust alternative news sources – a difficult thing to do for those who have fallen pray to the brainwashing of the biased Liberal lamestream media.

            FoxNews has more facts on news items than you on the left have answers for the questions they raise about the growing number of administration scandals. You are so brain numbed you don’t even recognize ObamaCare as being the biggest threat to your liberty and freedom ever foisted upon the unsuspecting American population. It is also a direct threat to your UNALIENABLE RIGHT to control your own life and destiny.

            The truly sad thing is the murderous effect your blind faith has on the future medical and financial well being of the general population, and that you don’t even question the Administration’s proven lies and false promises used to sell it by the BRAIN DEAD DEMOCRATS in the Senate.

            So go ahead and swallow the hollow explanations and policies and the shredding of the Constitution tactics used by the administration to CHANGE the law, which is UNAmerican, UNConstitutional and immoral yet truly characteristic of the tactics of the criminal enterprise you helped put in the White House and are now defending. You deserve each other. You are trying to sell me a turd by calling it a Snickers bar.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Why do liberals try to convince people that know the truth that their lies are true? Should we start burning all the books your Fascist leader doesn’t approve of. I suppose he’s start with the bible.
            You know in the lefts persecution of Christians he’s only reluctantly saving them from ISIS. In reality he’s been aiding their caliphate. Syria, Libya and Egypt. That went right over your head too right? Oh …and,” Tell Vlad I’ll be more flexible after my election” Really? How could he know he won already if it wasn’t “IN THE BAG”.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Dan’s a Useful Idiot. They come for them when they’re no longer needed. Says History.

          • Liberty’s Advocate

            You don’t get it, do you Dan? The CBO reports that premiums (subsidies like yours not considered) for the average individual will rise within two years as much as $800/mo. under ObamaCare … do the MATH! That’s around $9600/per year/per person … over $19,000/year per couple. Of course, this will be after your insurance company and every other insurance company in the USA no longer OFFERS healthcare coverage and the Liberal ‘wet dream’ of the single payer system is put in place. So don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back for your good fortune. You don’t understand SQUAT and your self-inflicted injury will be difficult to afford.

          • Dan Miler

            Actually, no the CBO did not report that. Faux News reporterd that the CBO reported that. There’s a difference you know. :)

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Sure is. Your sources are lying to you. That’s why more and more people are going to Fox. Dan. Any IDIOT would know even before it passed what a Disaster Obamaocare would be. Trying to convince people it’s not when they’re confronted with the horror of it in real time breaks your own devious progressive rules. Steal then peoples liberty a little at a time so it goes unnoticed. You and your fellow Destructocrats hit America with a sledge hammer of progressivism. We noticed Fascist control freak.
            CBO is a Joke. It’s Commie Core math.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Why isn’t the Propaganda king parading all you A.holes around with Press conferences etc. then?
            The Hollywood production façade of a President isn’t using you useful idiots. Why?

      • ThomasA

        Given that many of the Obamacare regulations haven’t even been decided yet, and the fact that the president is suspending many rules that have, I don’t think anyone can know about Obamacare.

        • occam

          Wrong butt-breath. My insurance doubled in cost and copys went up. Whe nI asked why I was told it was because of Obamacare compliance. I know about Obamascam

          • Dan Miler

            my email is dm010772@gmail.com Please show me proof. I am more than happy to show you proof of my premiums and copays if you provide me with an email address. if your insurance doubled, that’s because your insurance company sucks.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            As Dan exhibits the true nature of a heartless Liberal. Selfish self centered and Oblivious to all reality except their solipsistic one.
            Lately I’ve noticed all liberals are just total A.holes.
            Is that true about all liberals now?
            Nevermind……I forgot who I was asking.
            I’m so glad the Destructocrats are here to run my life because freedom really sucks doesn’t it Dan.

          • Dan Miler

            How am I an Ahole when I am simply asking for proof in how it has affected people? At the same time I am offering a chance to prove my points with actual documents. I have given out my email but yet to see any proof. :) Guess that makes me an ahole? LOL

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Didn’t I say Nevermind? You’re a traitor to your country. You’re blind to the train wreck he is because you’re loyal to your party and NOT to your country,
            V.A. waiting lists? What do you think they intend for us? I suppose that’s a lie too. Because you choose to ignore facts it doesn’t make them go away.

          • occam

            Wrong again butt-breath. My costs doubled because my HMO plan was considered too good to be compliant with Obamascam. Basically my costs doubled to offset the deadbeats, freeloaders and wards of the state who spend their money on things they can’t aford instead of buying insurance. The same dead beat types didn’t buy auto insurance before states started mandating it to register vehicles. That’s the reason behind uninsured motorist insurance

            Effectively my taxes were raised via a sneeky part of Obamascam that forced my policy costs to increase.

            Mark my words … the costs will continue to go up when the real costs of Obamascam that are now being held back because the devious criminal democrats deferred them to the future kick in. . Same thing for fines and penalties for not complying and buying insurance. Those have been delayed for political reasons. Agian devious crminal democrats don’t want to piss-off their dead-beat voters.

            Please have the last word. This discussion has once again proven that I can’t outsmart stupid.

          • Dan Miler

            There isn’t anything in the health care law that says your rates will double. If your rates doubled, choose a different plan, because your provider sucks.

            You know, we can have a conversation w/o the name calling. Calling people names because you don’t agree with them makes you seem like a spoiled 2nd grader.

          • WTFUAMERIKA

            Please. Dems. are the name callers. We learned it from you. Nice Projection there.Tell your Domestic enemy fascist king that.

      • Paul Lewis

        We lost our family healthcare due to ACA rules. I DESPISE any damn person that voted and supported that asshat law.

        • WTFUAMERIKA

          Wall, last cigarette and blindfold. That’s how I feel about it.

      • altster76

        Actually he knows the only thing he needs to know, it should not have happened. If the truth would have been told in 2009, it would have been soundly defeated. It is Obamacare that will defeat most of the incumbents this fall.

      • WTFUAMERIKA

        I know something about it. It sucks!!

      • Patriotic American

        Dan Miller I can tell that you apparently aren’t as informed as you think you are. “Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.” ~Ronald Reagan.

        • Dan Miler

          You do know that Reagan:

          – Raised taxes 7 times
          – Supported and signed a ban on assault rifles
          – Gave amnesty to over 3 million undocumented workers

          Now while I certainly do not see a problem with any of that, I doubt many of you teabaggers actually know this. But don’t take my word for it, feel free to research it yourself. :)

      • Patriotic American

        “If we’re going to fix health care, we’ve got to get at the delivery of care and the cost of care,” Bertolini said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “The ACA does none of that. The only person who’s really going to drive that is the consumer and the decisions they make.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/101879571#.

    • Patriotic American

      Thank you all for the comments. Dan Miller I can tell that you apparently aren’t as informed as you think you are. “Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.” ~Ronald Reagan.

    • Patriotic American

      The facts are these…Obamacare as Barney Frank stated, is based on a whole bunch of lies and deceit. Very little if any has come true and we were all sold a bill of goods. All and all it is a bad law and needs to be repealed in favor of multi-state, consumer based, consumer driven, and devoid of government intervention style healthcare. If you look at the travesty that has surfaced in the VA debacle you can see why “single payer” government run healthcare is NOT THE ANSWER.

  • spintreebob

    Hope all 10 lose.

    • jefflll

      And the article did not even talk about the open Senate seats in IA, GA and MI. Two of those already appear to be going (R) and MI is a very close toss up. Of the three, two were held by (D)s. Wait until all the anti-OCare ads go up and ads about the voting records of these (D)s hit the air waves, we will see how all these (D)s hold up.

      • WTFUAMERIKA

        Yup. Hope is CHAINS is finally hitting everyone. Destructocrats can’t LIE their way out of this one.

  • Francis Vetter

    One RINO gone and the other 9 flip- Let the Impeachment begin!

    • Honk

      NO! To impeach, we’d need a 2/3s majority, and that is not happening. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States

      • Francis Vetter

        They can go nuclear like harry Reid did to pass obamacare, change the Senate rules for impeachment, then change them back.

        • brickman

          The Senate 2/3 requirement for impeachment is in the US Constitution not in Senate rules. It can be changed only with an amendment. Not too knowledgeable are ya?

        • Honk

          It is baked in the Consitution. Besides, I like to think we are better than the Democrats.

  • Eisenhower

    Merkley and Franken are probably safe given their states history, and unless this is a wave election I just don’t see them going down. I live in New Hampshire and I know lot a of people in Dover, Portsmouth, Concord, and Manchester who are voting to re-elect Shaheen and Hassan (the Governor). I know a lot of my conservative friends in places like Franklin, Northfield, etc., who just really don’t like Scott Brown, the “Masshole”. I think Udall, Begich, and McConnell will survive. I don’t know about Hagan, from what I’ve heard McCrory and the Republican legislature are pretty unpopular too so I feel like this is a true tossup. I think Walsh is done and not just because of the scandal, but because Steve Daines has managed to blunt the possible libertarian spoiler in this race, by matching the Montana electorate’s view on everything from NSA spying to spending.

    • Syanis

      Franken is hated in Minnesota including by the Dems. I don’t see him having a chance of winning. His last win had a LOT of fishy business in it and since then he’s been a tragedy for MN.

      • brickman

        Please tell me the last time that a Senator ahead by 15 points in August lost short on being caught with a dead girl or a live boy.

      • altster76

        He’s a joke(er).

      • blockmccloud

        Michelle Bachmann the nut is hated in MN. MN is a blue state. franken wins. You lose

        • Syanis

          Bachmann is a nut, I’ll give you that.

    • mabramso

      McConnell will scrape by, and Udall might as well, but I don’t know if Begich will survive. AK is very, very red. From all accounts, he is running a good campaign, but so did Scott Brown in MA last time. It’s very difficult to overcome the demographics of a state.

      • Eisenhower

        Begich has been running a pretty smart campaign by staying as close to the state’s libertarian impulse as possible while at same time trying to localize the race. He may benefit from the efforts to legalize marijuana out there, which from what I understand has a decent shot of passing. Combine that with a divisive Republican primary its up in the air. And demographics aren’t everything as Tester in MT and Heitkamp in ND proved in states easily won by Romney with similar libertarian/populist streaks. Of course the difference here is that 2012 was a Presidential year, so we’ll see.

        • mabramso

          Then I guess it will depend on how well the GOP can tie Begich to Obamacare, which is about as far away from libertarian as you can get. MT has never been all that red. They have had at least one Dem senator for as long as I can remember, and they even voted for Clinton once. And of course demographics aren’t everything. But in 6th year midterms it accounts for a lot (as the GOP discovered quite rudely in 2006).

          • Eisenhower

            Obamacare is an achilles heel for Begich, which is why he plays the Heitkamp line of “it needs to be fixed”, and he’s been hitting the whole anti-survelliance state rhetoric which is very libertarian. 6th year midterms are usually bad for the incumbent party, however if the other party is seen as “overreaching” or has just as bad an approval rating then we could end up with another 98 situation. And I believe in 06 Democrats went into that mid-term election with a 54% approval rating in the polls, that’s not the case this time with the GOP. Now if this is a wave election year, due to anti-Obama sentiment then I think Begich is gone, but as of right now I think he’s in good shape. Right now it’s about ground game for Begich and whether or not he can define his opposition before they get done with their primary.

            Montana went to Clinton due to Perot’s Independent Campaign back in 92. You’re right about Montana it’s libertarian/populist streak has made it hard for either party to fully dominate it. Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer is a perfect example of a politician from that state staunchly opposing the REAL ID Act, The Patriot Act, Gun Control, while supporting a public option for healthcare, and allowing Americans to buy perscription drugs from Canada. I remember him and President Obama got into some conflict with eachother over the Healthcare reform several years back. Jon Tester’s another one ran in 06 on repealing the Patriot Act, and in 2012 accused his Republican opponent of being pro-big brother.

          • mabramso

            On the other side of the coin:
            1. The counter to “it needs to be fixed” is that HIS party is never really going to fix it.
            2. It’s not going to be 1998, unless the House starts impeachment proceedings, which Obama is quite predictably trying very hard to goad the GOP into doing. In 1998, Clinton was actually popular, and midterms are almost always about the incumbent President, not the incumbent Congress. It worked for Truman, but that was not a 6th year midterm.
            3. GOP groups are spending big-time there as well, even before the primary, so I am not sure the “define the opposition” tactic will work, especially in a red state. And it may backfire. It’s kind of like going into MA and campaigning that a Democrat candidate is an left-wing extremist. There will be a collective “so what?”, and it will really motivate the hardliners to turn out and vote against him.

            The bottom line is that Begich has to walk a very fine line and get very lucky. So far he has done that; it remains to be seen whether or not it will last until November.

    • ARMY1971

      Yea your state was taken over by the liberal progressive dopes who ran away from Mass and into your once great state. Now your state like my former home NY is nothing more than a haven for the takers, single moms, teachers, cops etc, all living off the taxpayers dime. But soon you will see business leave, than the white middle class and NH will look like NY, NJ, Pa. Just moved to the Gunshine state and tell all the ex NYers here remember why we are all here, sunshine yes, Dumbocrats and all their tax and spending for sure.

      • Eisenhower

        It’s not just that, the leading candidates for Senate are frankly awful. Scott Brown is A Masshole who came up here because he wants his job back and keeps mixing up NH with MA. And Bob Smith is so hold and dried up that John McCain looks young and vigorous by comparison, and no one knows who the hell Jim Reubens or Andy Martin are. And in the Gubernatorial race in the primary it’s the establishment (Havenstien backed by Romney) versus the libertarians (Hemingway backed by Humphrey) neither of whom have much of a chance against Hassan. Let’s face since Gov. John Lynch and the Bush years the NH GOP has dropped the ball with the only exception being Sen. Ayotte.

    • OldBald06

      Waving!!! Waving!!! Merkley needs to go!!!

  • Robin Scalia

    I think tis maybe wrong Just like the Romney Ryan sure thing Why don’t you really ask the people that vote

    • drixnot3

      lol… just checking the other links on this page it becomes clear this site is biased. Exactly the same thing as the Romney “unskewed” polls

  • F Michael Addams

    Teapublicans pick up Montana and South Dakota…and that’s it…Dem’s win many governorships….Make some History, Wildcats…Allison for Kentucky..

    • Jim r

      Insane to vote for this libtard. She is a moron. Grime the Slime

      • blockmccloud

        So are you and Mitch. Mitch is a goner,

        Results show that 51,000 more Democrats went to the polls Tuesday, and Grimes got about 95,000 more votes than McConnell, who had to split the Republican vote with Bevin.

        Even though Kentucky is seen as a red state, Democrats have a 54
        percent registration advantage to 39 percent for registered Republicans.

        McConnell may also be nervous because on ; Tuesday night he received the lowest percentage of the primary vote the Bluegrass State’s last 22 incumbent senators have ever pulled in.

    • Jim r

      Grime the slime

      • Jim r

        Libturds care more about illegals than the American taxpayer and citizen.

        • occam

          Libturds love illegals because they become goverment dependents and vote democrat

      • blockmccloud

        Grime the WINNER

        Results show that 51,000 more Democrats went to the polls Tuesday, and Grimes got about 95,000 more votes than McConnell, who had to split the Republican vote with Bevin.

        Even though Kentucky is seen as a red state, Democrats have a 54
        percent registration advantage to 39 percent for registered Republicans.

        McConnell may also be nervous because on ; Tuesday night he received the lowest percentage of the primary vote the Bluegrass State’s last 22 incumbent senators have ever pulled in.

    • Bcrew

      No chance that Dems keep the senate. Keep dreaming.

      • F Michael Addams

        Uh-huh…and Benghazi…and IRS…and don’t forget birth certificate…and President Romney…and President McShame…

  • Dan Hillberry

    If the people do one minute of research, which sounds like it would be more than the duo writing this article, all the Dems will lose, especially, Pryor, Landrieu, and the clown Franken.

    • mabramso

      McFadden has a chance in MN, but Franken probably wins.

      • ARMY1971

        Yea probably right Minny is loaded with liberal progressive Dumbocrats.

        • Hannah Eriksen

          Send them a few thousand more Somalis to wreck their cities and schools even more. They might see the light in another ten years.

  • gambezi

    Excellent, they all need to go. Bring on a republican congress and impeach Obama. I’m a democrat and I’m voting republican this fall.

    • altster76

      Awesome to hear. Tell your friends.

    • blockmccloud

      You’re a low information voter

  • What-up

    I hope Dick Durbin, losses too..

    • brickman

      I hope that my trees turn to candy but we all have our disappointments.

  • Brian

    As someone who gets Colorado tv stations, I can guarantee the Udall camp is running a lot of negative ads. I’m going to need a new remote as I will have no “mute” button by Labor Day.

    • hicknloopermustgo

      Yep…Udall and Hick have to go. As well as Jeanne Nicholson in Senate District 16.

  • Richard_Ellmyer

    “Merkley is likely headed back to the Senate. Recent polls put him about 15 points ahead of Republican Monica Wehby, and he has a hefty cash advantage.”

    With a fifteen point advantage WHY is Merkley on this list?

    All the Koch brothers money CANNOT match the influence that the 911 tape of Monica Wehby’s ex-boyfriend made in fear of Wehby’s breaking into his house and stalking him. It is destined to be a political classic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn6vz_0uzoo

    Democrats should welcome Republicans throwing money away on Monica Wehby’s already lost campaign.

    Regardless of how much money is spent by either campaign this is how voters vote. Most Democrats will vote for Merkley. Most Republicans will vote for Wehby. Most Non-Aligned voters will vote for Merkley.

    Merkley wins by double digits.

    Richard Ellmyer
    North Portland

    • mabramso

      She’s on the list because it’s a top 10 list, and there isn’t anyone left to put there.

    • Jim r

      What about the Soros money?

    • Bcrew

      Who cares? Dems still lose the senate.

  • Quancidine Gribble

    My name is Quancidine Hinson-Gribble and this is my experience with Senator Kay Hagan. I wrote to Senator Kay Hagan because of the crimes that I experienced at the Survivors Outreach Center on Fort Bragg, NC on August 3, 2012. The crimes were committed by Amy J. Melendez and Joanie Hammons who are employees there.
    These two woman are stealing the Identity of “WIDOWS OF VETERANS”, government issued ID cards, and then destroying our vital information after they have done these crimes. Once the ID cards leave Fort Bragg, NC they are in the hands of people who have purchased them. The identity of the “WIDOWS of VETERANS” have been compromised and “SANITIZED” out of the system so the “NEW IDENTITY” can file IRS Income taxes in our name.
    All Senator Hagan did was to help Colonel Jeffrey M. Sanborn of Garrison Command, Ethel (Craven) Knock the ID Card supervisor at the Fort Bragg, NC ID card office and John W. Ellerbe Project Manager for the United States Army with giving them my personal information so they could go into the DFAS/DEERS and VA database and to put “FRAUDULENT” information in so I would be denied my benefits.
    Senator Hagan has cost me over $300,000.00. I WANT THE WORLD TO KNOW THAT SENATOR HAGAN HAS BEEN BOUGHT OFF BY SPECIAL INTERESTS GROUPS AND FORT BRAGG, NC.
    Thank GOD, I had all of my documentation and that the authorities are arresting people for their participation for these crimes.
    This toad and her cronies have reached the end of their road for stealing from “WIDOWS of VETERANS” and “VETERANS”!!!
    For anyone wanting a copy of my documentation, I will be more than happy to give it to them. Please contact me at (910) 670-0652 or e-mail me at: quancidinehgribble@aol.com
    Thank you,
    Quancidine Hinson-Gribble

  • mabramso

    #1-6 have a good shot at flipping. After that, it gets doubtful pretty fast. Of course, these are only incumbents. The GOP will flip SD and WV at a minimum, have a good shot at flipping the open seat in IA, and if very lucky, could flip the open seat in MI.

  • ARMY1971

    Both major parties are nothing more than shills, but still seeing that scum bag Al frankenstein lose would make this guy very happy indeed. But don’t know if those square heads in liberal progressive Minn have enough brains to do it.

  • OldBald06

    Merkley doesn’t serve Oregon. Merkley serves Merkley and the dems. He’s useless.

  • Raconteur

    Dang…

    Appropriately, all but one of the “Top Ten” are Democrats.

    Say goodbye to your Senate majority, Harry.

    And…good riddance.

  • brickman

    I know 10 is a round number but the last three on your list are not vulnerable. Shaheen will win by 6-7, Franken by 10 and Merkeley by 15.

  • dwstick

    I’m not sure that Franken is a shoo-in for reelection. He voted FOR Obamacare. Minnesota had a fairly sizable medical instruments manufacturing base. When some of the Obamacare taxes on medical instruments kicked in, a lot of people lost their jobs because the industry couldn’t compete.
    And he was one of the gang-of-eight senators that wrote that letter to the IRS, requesting that it ‘scrutinize’ (translation: harass and bully) conservative groups looking for tax-exempt status.

    • Right_Here

      Remember he didn’t actually win last time. You may recall the Florida style recounts a’la the Gangster Rocko in Key Largo;

      “Let me tell you about politicians.
      I make them, I make them out of whole cloth, just like a tailor makes a suit. I get their name in the newspaper. I get them some publicity and I get their name on the ballot. Then, after the election, we count the votes,

      and if they don’t turn out right, we recount them again until they do — ”

      Edward G. Robinson to Humphrey Bogart in Key Largo (full quote)

  • T bone

    What an enjoyable column.

  • BruceMacMahon

    Shaheen’s opponent in New Hampshire is not, I repeat, not Scott Brown.

    See, there’s this thing called a Republican primary in September.

    She is very beatable If the NH establishment GOP pushes Brown onto the ticket, Shaheen will win easy.

    Please stop crowning Brown as the GOP nominee. There’s a lot of anti-Brown sentiment in the GOP here.

  • thegreyman

    You neglect to mention that Ted Stevens (R) AK conviction was purely due to prosecutorial misconduct, and that the trial results were not just overturned, but vacated, and he prosecutors turned over for disciplinary action.

    • altster76

      a convenient omission.

    • richard40

      So basically the dem won in AK because of a fraudalent corrupt prosecution, which has since been overturned. Typical dem tactics.

  • http://twitter.com/newclasstraitor NewClassTraitor

    Question is: will the GOP challengers win “beyond the cheating margin”?

  • bggatbdl

    The Republicans are nothing but a bunch of third-rate criminals that have destroyed the lives of millions of women, children, minorities, and gays with their destructive, hate-filled policies. This article is pure propaganda as trying to discourage Democrats from showing up to the polls in November. Every since Bush stole the election in 2000, with the help of the Koch Brothers, Republicans have no hesitation to try and steal other elections so they can make Big oil rich.

    • NW-HardWood

      The democrat party is looking more and more like the Fascist partys of
      the 1930s and 40s Secretive, totalitarian, intolerant, punitive, and
      flat out dangerous. Only a progressive sends someone to
      prison to help facilitate a political lie. Only a progressive would
      militarize the bureaucracy and use it against it’s citizens. Only a
      Progressive would allow thousands of weapons to go to dangerous
      criminals knowing and hoping hundreds would die…..for domestic
      political purposes. Only a progressive and union control of the IRS
      would threaten the the First Amendment. Only a progressive would destroy a country and make it in his own image. Only a progressive thinks it’s ok to be an anti Semite. Only a progressive would align with the Fascist Muslim Brotherhood. Only a progressive would look you right in the eye and with malice lie. Only a progressive believes “they are the
      ones they have been waiting for”…mmmm…mmmmm…mmmm! Only a
      progressive would think it’s OK for obamas rule of law to mean he writes his own laws. There is little doubt this administration is controlled by malicious, vindictive
      criminal thugs.

      • WTFUAMERIKA

        Yup. They’re the enemy for sure.

    • BruceMacMahon

      As opposed to the current administration, the very definition of first-rate criminals.

      An unconstitutional domestic spying program that Bush could only have dreamed of.

      An IRS that has been turned into a political weapon to do the president’s dirty work and silence political opposition.

      Thousands of guns smuggled over the border for Mexican drug gangs.

      And now, an open borders policy with no restrictions based on criminal records or contagious diseases.

      How “progressive”.

      That said, your comment is quite remarkable. In just THREE sentences, you fit in War on Women!!!, the race card, the gay card, the “Republicans hate children!!!” card, voter suppression, Bush stole the election!, big oil, AND the Koch brothers.

      I’ll give that a solid 8 out of 10.

      You forgot to accuse accuse Wall Street of funding the NRA’s campaign of mass-murder.

      Also, nothing about Republicans trying to destroy the middle class…which is flourishing under Obama’s economic plans, right?

  • ConservativeSenior

    The message here is that our government is for sale to the highest bidder.

  • http://WWW.SPIRITOFAMERICAPARTYRADIOSHOW.COM TOM P O’DONNELL

    ALL THE MORE REASON TO SHOOT FOR THREE GOALS.
    1-ONE TERM PER TERMITE
    2-ONE DOLLAR CHAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION MAXIMUM
    3-NO LOBBIES EXCEPT IN HOTELS.
    http://WWW.SPIRITOFAMERICAPARTYRADIOSHOW.COM

  • somewhere

    gosh – there are so many reasons to be hopeful “it’s a sweep!” Mainly to stop the liar in chief with a bunch of protective morons; aka Democrats – who are either too stupid to know what is going on or: implicit in protecting [him]. Those citizens who still support the madman in charge need to open your minds/forget the liberal media bias and find out the truth before you continue to support a president that is just as dangerous as any other criminal who accidentally became a world leader in other dark parts of history. Here’s just one example – go find others on your own – he’s hoodwinking a nation to destroy a world.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIMucHfUMyg

    ps – she’s not a conservative – MP Daly is in the Socialist Party in Ireland (and this is from a while ago – it’s only gotten worse because so many are hiding from the truth.)

  • WTFUAMERIKA

    Anyone notice the libs are invading all the sites that tell the truth. The little fascists block us from all their sites and now have to come here to bother us. My nose is getting real itchy for these control freak little Anti-American Christian Persecuting terrorists. Know what I mean?

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