Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 9, 2016

GOP Internal Poll: McSally, Barber Are Deadlocked

McSally is challenging Barber again in Arizona. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An internal poll conducted for the campaign of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally found the Arizona Republican had a slight, within-the-margin-of-error lead over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber.

McSally led 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 points in the OnMessage Inc. poll obtained by CQ Roll Call.

The pair are locked in a rematch of 2012, when Barber narrowly defeated McSally, and they are likely to stay close in the polls heading into November in this swing district.

The poll showed similar numbers to one the same Republican firm conducted in June. Commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee, that poll found Barber ahead, but within the margin of error.

Forty percent of respondents in the latest poll had a positive view of President Barack Obama, while 53 percent viewed him negatively.

The campaign declined to release candidate favorability ratings or name identification figures. Both candidates should be relatively well-known — this is the third congressional bid in the past two years for both Barber and McSally, who ran in a June 2012 special (McSally lost in the GOP primary) before facing off in November.

This is one of the most competitive House races in the country and is rated a Tossup by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call. At the end of March, Barber had $1.2 million in cash on hand and McSally had about $850,000.

Wes Anderson and Kayla Sulzer conducted the poll for OnMessage Inc. It was a live interview telephone survey of 400 likely general-election voters fielded April 14-16. Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they were Republicans, while 36 percent stated they were Democrats.

Here is the full polling memo:


    The Republican party and their cronies have done themselves a great disservice by holding the extension bill hostage since late last December. While they continued delaying and rejecting each proposal submitted in the senate, millions of families have suffered adversely financially. Millions of families have faced eviction, home foreclosures, personal bankruptcy, and homelessness, while the republican senate played “party politics”, using these families as bargaining chips, for political leverage, to further their political agenda. These are people with children who are suffering for no fault of their own, because of lay offs and corporate downsizing. These are not the “lazy” unemployed workers depicted in the press by some republicans in the senate. It’s always easy to point blame at others for failures, rather to one’s own self for failed policies. Remember, it wasn’t the poor and unemployed that caused our economy “meltdown” several years ago. It was the greedy bankers that were responsible, and needed bailing out with taxpayer’s dollars. Which after the bail outs, gave each other huge bonuses. Now the republican party, with senators such as John Boehner, are holding the much needed help for these families as leverage for the passing of their OIL bill in the senate. Sadly, this is what it all comes down to. I hope the republicans are prepared for the tremendous backlash by these millions of families and their loved ones in the coming elections. They may not care at the moment, but I assure you that they will realized their mistake when the democrats win by another landslide. The republicans have proven themselves to represent only the interests of a chosen few in our great country

  • lazy wolf

    That was a really long winded way of saying that you have nothing positive to point out about the current party in power.

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