Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 8, 2016

GOP Poll: Cotton Holds Edge Over Pryor in Arkansas

Pryor faces a tough re-election race in 2014. (Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

A poll conducted on behalf of Rep. Tom Cotton’s campaign found the Arkansas Republican with a 4-point lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor — within the margin of error for the survey.

In one of the GOP’s top pickup opportunities in 2014, Cotton led 45 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent of those surveyed undecided.

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. on Oct. 15-17. The margin of error was 4 points.

Pollster Wes Anderson argues in the polling memo that Pryor is vulnerable because of his support of President Barack Obama and the president’s health care law. The poll found that about 6 in 10 voters held an unfavorable view of Obama and opposed Obamacare.

Meanwhile, the Pryor campaign launched a new TV ad this week that hangs the government shutdown on Cotton. With the Republican brand taking a hit nationally in the polls in the wake of the shutdown, the ad ties Cotton to “a small group of reckless congressmen” that led the effort.

The race is rated a Tossup by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

  • susierosie

    Voters in Arkansas are more mad about the GOP government shutdown than the ACA. In fact Arkansas voters are going to be yelling in 2014, “Don’t touch my ACA.” LOL.

  • terjeanderson

    The same Republican pollster who claimed that Ed Markey was only 3% ahead of Gabriel Gomez in the MA Senate special election. How’d that work out for them?

    They are one of the go-to pollsters for Republican candidates seeking to release polls showing them stronger than they really are. Quite a few losing GOP candidates in 2012 (Coors in CO, Doherty in RI, to name just two) were proudly releasing OnMessage internal polls saying they were ahead – they weren’t.

    And every mention of OnMessage polling should include reference to the fact that in 2012 they agreed to pay a $15,000 fine for conducting illegal push polling in NH in 2010.

    This is a close race – but don’t trust this poll (or pollster).

  • mabramso

    Pryor is toast, and it isn’t because of this poll. He’s a Democrat in a state with ZERO Democrat House members. The best comparison in reverse is Massachusetts. Pryor is the equivalent of Scott Brown, who is no longer in the Senate because he couldn’t overcome the demographics of the state. Pryor will not be able to overcome the redness of the state unless Cotton makes a very stupid Akin-like comment.

  • Thomas Aquinas

    The argument between the liberty school and the collectivists is not one about improvement, but rather about the best ways of doing so.

  • Thomas Aquinas

    It’s important to keep in mind that preserving liberty is up to each of us:

  • EricNV

    I trust my gut, which says that anyone on record as voting for Obamacare and up for re-election next year is in big heap trouble.

  • Jim Michaels

    Pryor is a big time liberal/socialist that must go. He is a great example of the problems in Washington. He stands for MORE control of our lives by the government and he sees nothing wrong with that. Wake up!

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