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February 14, 2016

GOP Poll: Rounds Holds Large Lead in Senate Contest | #SDSEN

Former Gov. Mike Rounds, a Republican, has a large lead over likely Democratic challenger Rick Weiland in South Dakota’s open Senate contest, according to an automated GOP poll released on Monday.

Rounds leads Weiland, a former aide to former Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D., 58 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent of respondents undecided, according to the survey from Harper Polling.

The open-seat contest marks one of the Senate GOP’s best pickup opportunities this cycle. Sen. Tim Johnson’s retirement announcement left his party searching for a top candidate to take on the former two-term governor.

Rounds is the favorite to win the GOP nomination, but he faces a primary against three other GOP candidates: physician Annette Bosworth, state Rep. Stace Nelson and state Senate Majority Whip Larry Rhoden.

Weiland fares much better against this tier of candidates, according to the poll.

Against Bosworth, Weiland leads 38 percent to 36 percent; against Nelson, Weiland trails by 2 points; and against Rhoden, Weiland trails 41 percent to 35 percent.

The poll, which surveyed 517 likely voters on Sept. 5-6 via an automated telephone survey, has a 4.3-point margin of error.

The South Dakota Senate race is rated a Lean Republican contest by Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

  • YoungConservative

    One step closer to removing one of Obummer’s rubber stamps. Now for just a few more GOP pick ups.

  • Mojojojo

    “58 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent of respondents undecided”

    …anyone else wanna point out what’s wrong with this statement?

  • YoungConservative

    Roll Call misquoted the poll. It’s 52/38/10

  • Mojojojo

    Bingo. Although I’d shrink the gap another 6 points or so, given Harper’s brief but poor polling record…

    1st place ranked on Fordham’s pollster list, PPP has Landrieu beating Cassidy by 10 points in Louisiana. Harper? Fellow Republican Cassidy up by 2! I won’t hold my breath…

  • YoungConservative

    I’ve noticed over the past couple cycles though, early in elections PPP’s results do not come anywhere close to other pollsters results (almost always favoring Dems) and then fall in line with the others closer to election day. It’s like they purposely portray a race as going one way and then become more accurate at the end to keep their reputation. Compare their results to any other pollster in senate and governor races this year and you will see they are not just this far different only from Harper.

  • Mojojojo

    I’ve noticed the opposite of that, pollsters moving toward them in the final days. Definitely happened in 2012, but maybe agree to disagree on earlier years…

    Of course PPP was favoring Dems relative to other pollsters—all the most accurate polls were. Almost every poll in the field lowballed Obama’s eventual huge victory, including ones that looked biased toward Obama. Pew is a lefty poll too, and look how accurate they were. You’re sounding a little ad hominem…

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