House Ratings Changes in Florida, New York
Posted at 2:46 p.m. on Sept. 24, 2012
Today, Roll Call moves two Florida House race ratings in the Democrats’ direction, while one New York House race ratings change favors the Republicans.
The honcho of hyperbole, the chief pooh-bah of provocation and the high baron of belittlement is poised to come to the 113th Congress. It’s Alan Grayson time. The former Congressman looks on track to comfortably beat long-shot GOP nominee Todd Long in a Democratic district and return to Washington, D.C. Roll Call moves this race to from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
Embattled Rep. David Rivera (R) appears more and more vulnerable as reported federal investigations swirl around him. This race is now tighter than it was a few weeks ago — polls have shown the race to be close — and that moves it from Leans Republican to a Tossup.
Still, politics in Miami isn’t like other places in the United States. Rivera could well survive against Democratic nominee Joe Garcia, who lost Congressional races in 2008 and 2010. And longtime Florida Republicans are careful to never write off Rivera, who is seen as a survivor’s survivor.
“David Rivera could be standing in a burning building, the executioner could have a gun to his head and then a nuclear bomb could go off and you think, ‘He’s done,’” said Sunshine State GOP strategist Rick Wilson. “Next thing, David walks out the back door and asks if you want to go grab lunch.”
It doesn’t look as if this will be the year Democrats take out Rep. Richard Hanna (R). With the right candidate, maybe the freshman lawmaker could have been vulnerable. But just more than 40 days before the election, he appears to be in very comfortable shape in his race against former Congressional aide Dan Lamb (D). In a quick interview with Roll Call on Monday afternoon, a cheerful Hanna emphasized his constituent services, quick turnaround on casework and legislative record.
Roll Call moves his race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.