Roll Call: Latest News on Capitol Hill, Congress, Politics and Elections
February 12, 2016

Indiana: Howey Poll Gives Donnelly Big Edge Over Mourdock

Rep. Joe Donnelly led Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock in a new poll. (CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) led state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) by 11 points in the latest bipartisan survey from Howey Politics Indiana.

Donnelly garnered 47 percent of the vote, while Mourdock had 36 percent in the survey.  A libertarian candidate, Andrew Horning, picked up 6 percent, and 11 percent of voters were undecided.

The new poll comes 10 days after Mourdock’s controversial remark in the candidates’ final debate that pregnancy from rape is something “God intended.” In this new survey, 87 percent of respondents were familiar with that remark.

The survey also shows Donnelly has built upon his lead from a similar poll in September. Howey Politics Indiana’s last survey showed Donnelly with a 2-point lead. Still, the Indiana Senate contest remains a competitive race, and Roll Call rates it as a Tossup.

Mourdock’s own numbers dispute Howey’s poll. Today, his campaign released internal polling taken about the same time that showed him leading Donnelly by a couple of points, 46 to 44 percent.

Mourdock’s survey showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama in the state, 54 percent to 41 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The Howey Politics Indiana survey also showed Romney defeating Obama, 50 to 41 percent.

McLaughlin & Associates conducted Mourdock’s poll of 600 likely voters from Oct. 30 to Nov.1 and had a margin of error of 4 points.

The Howey survey interviewed 800 likely voters from Oct. 28-30. It had a margin of error of 3.5 points.


    I am not sure how accurate the Howey surveys have been in the past, but the fact that these are not run-of-the-mill “internal polls” makes them quite credible. If the final results match these, recent history indicates that there is (realistically) NO “nucking” WAY the Rs can seize (organisational) control of the Senate while failing to defend one of their own seats (in a presidential year, no less), or win the presidency itself with less than a double-digit PP margin for this state’s electoral votes (e.g. 1996, 1992, 1976).

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