New York: Chris Gibson Leads in Polls, but Margin Varies
Posted at 1:24 p.m. on Oct. 10, 2012
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(Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call File Photo)
Freshman Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.) recently led his Democratic challenger by a little or a lot, depending on which pollster did the asking.
A new poll commissioned for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Gibson leading Julian Schreibman 43 percent to 41 percent with 16 percent of those likely voters surveyed undecided. The president led Mitt Romney by 7 points in the poll conducted by Democratic firm Grove Insight.
But a new poll commissioned for the independent expenditure arm of the National Republican Congressional Committee and obtained by Roll Call found Gibson leading Schreibman 47 percent to 39 percent, with 16 percent of those likely voters surveyed undecided. The president led Romney by 3 points in the poll conducted by Republican firm On Message Inc.
The breakdown of those surveyed in the Republican poll: 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 25 percent other. The breakdown of those surveyed in the Democratic poll: 32 percent Democratic; 35 percent Republican; 33 percent other.
In 2008, the president would have beaten Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by about 8 points in the district.
The 19th district race has been fiercely contested with significant money being put on TV by outside groups.
Both polls surveyed 400 likely voters using live telephone interviewers and had margins of error of 4.9 points. The Republican poll was in the field Sept. 30-Oct. 1. The Democratic poll was in the field Oct. 5-7.
Roll Call rates New York’s 19th district race as a Tossup.