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Posted at 5:01 a.m. on July 31, 2012
Freshman Republican Rep. Chris Gibson led Democrat Julian Schreibman by 17 points in the reconfigured 19th district in upstate New York, according to a new GOP poll. Gibson got 53 percent to Schreibman’s 36 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided about the race.
A memo about the poll, conducted by respected Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Roll Call, also found the GOP leading the generic Congressional ballot.
POS surveyed 400 likely voters in the district from July 25-26. Live interviewers called respondents on land lines and cellphones. Thirty-four percent of respondents identified themselves as registered Republicans, 31 percent as Democrats and 34 percent as being registered with another party or unaffiliated with any party. The margin of error was 4.9 points.
While Gibson may have the edge from stronger name ID among voters, this poll probably exaggerates the ease with which he might be re-elected. The newly configured district is largely new turf for him, and it would have voted 53 percent for Barack Obama in 2008. Democrats on bullish on Schreibman, a former federal prosecutor.
Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.
Read the full GOP memo here: