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April 9, 2012
It’s a race for second place in Northern California’s coastal 2nd district, according to an internal poll for state Assemblyman Jared Huffman’s campaign.
The Democrat holds a wide lead in the 12-candidate all-party primary with 24 percent, followed by fellow Democrats Stacey Lawson with 9 percent, Norman Solomon with 7 percent and Susan Adams with 5 percent. Dan Roberts and Michael Halliwell, the only two Republicans in the race, took 5 percent each. Full story
In New Jersey’s hotly contested Member-vs.-Member Democratic primary, Rep. Steven Rothman narrowly outraised Rep. Bill Pascrell by about $30,000 in the first quarter. Rothman “raised over $540,000,” while Pascrell raised “approximately $510,000,” according to campaign press releases.
As for cash on hand, Rothman had just less than $1.8 million. Pascrell’s campaign did not release its cash total. At year’s end, Pascrell had $1.5 million in the bank, versus Rothman’s $1.7 million.
BEAVER, Pa. — Rep. Tim Holden’s challenger released a new poll today that shows the 10-term Congressman trailing his Democratic opponent just a few weeks before the Keystone State primary.
Attorney Matt Cartwright led Holden, 42 percent to 36 percent, in the poll paid for by Cartwright’s campaign.
The survey is yet another indication that Holden’s political future is on the line in the April 24 primary. Pennsylvania Republicans redrew the Congressional map last year, forcing Holden to seek re-election in a mostly new district. Full story
With campaign polling so ubiquitous, I’m not often driven to report on a survey this far out from Election Day. Horse race polling this early can be deceiving and the volume of surveys produced has made it more difficult to identify significant trends.
But every rule has an exception, and the poll of battleground independents conducted for Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, merits discussion. The organization’s latest poll reveals the complexity of choices before independent voters — a crucial demographic that could determine the outcome of the Nov. 6 elections — and the subtle nuances that could influence whom they might ultimately support.
Third Way surveyed independent voters in a dozen battleground states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Perhaps the poll’s most informative findings in terms of educating us on the direction of the 2012 presidential race and what might affect the outcome: Third Way reports in a memo discussing the survey that it has refined its data to identify the 38 percent of independent voters that are still “up for grabs” — voters it designates as “swing state independents” — and discovered that while this demographic has more positive feelings toward President Barack Obama than his presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, these voters are “closer ideologically” to the former Massachusetts governor.
New Mexico Rep. Martin Heinrich raised $490,000 in the first quarter and had $1.6 million in cash on hand as of the end of March, his Senate campaign announced today.
This is the last quarterly report before Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas face off in the June 5 Democratic primary, which Heinrich is favored to win. Balderas has yet to announce his quarterly numbers, which are due to be postmarked to the Federal Election Commission by midnight on Sunday.
According to the Heinrich campaign, 73 percent of his contributions came from within the state and 80 percent were under $200.
Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), under growing ethical scrutiny, will report an impressive $484,000 in fundraising receipts in the first three months of this year, according to an internal memo obtained by Roll Call.
The campaign had about $1.5 million in cash on hand at the end of March, according to the memo to supporters from Celena Thibodeaux, Buchanan’s finance director.
It was unclear if the Congressman’s first-quarter campaign haul included contributions or loans from himself. A call and email to a campaign spokeswoman were not immediately returned this afternoon.
Buchanan, the vice-chairman for finance for the National Republican Congressional Committee, is seen as a top target by Florida and national Democrats, especially after a front-page New York Times story reported an apparently “widening” federal investigations into the Congressman. But his fundraising in the first quarter shows that he continues to have strong financial support and resources available for a campaign.
Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren raised an extraordinary $6.9 million in the first quarter of 2012, her campaign manager announced in an email to supporters. That means the presumptive Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts more than doubled the fundraising of Sen. Scott Brown (R), who raised $3.4 million in the first three months of the year.
“Scott Brown still has $4 million more in the bank than we do, and there’s a lot of work ahead to do to close the gap,” campaign manager Mindy Myers wrote. Brown ended March with $15 million in cash on hand, so that means Warren ended the quarter with about $11 million.
Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.
Embattled freshman Rep. David Rivera (R-Fla.) picked up a Democratic opponent today, after losing one last week.
Real estate businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses announced her candidacy for Florida’s southern 26th district this morning, seven days after state Rep. Luis Garcia (D), who got in a very public tussle with national Democratic figures, dropped his bid.
“Florida’s growth has been stagnant coming out of this downturn in part because Congressman David Rivera has been too focused on defending himself in his ongoing scandals rather than fighting for jobs and strengthening our small businesses,” Roses said in a statement, embracing hyperbole. Full story
April 7, 2012
Rep. Timothy Johnson’s preferred candidate in the race to replace him will announce his campaign Monday, much to the chagrin of many Illinois Republicans — including Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) — who remain irked about the way the six-term Congressman’s post-primary retirement went down this week.
Jerry Clarke, Johnson’s former chief of staff, will announce his campaign Monday for the 13th district seat. An Iraq War veteran, Clarke currently serves as chief of staff for freshman Rep. Randy Hultgren (R-Ill.).
Several Illinois Republicans, including Rep. John Shimkus, have encouraged former Shimkus aide Rodney Davis to enter the race. Davis is still talking over a potential bid with his family, according to Shimkus’ chief of staff, Craig Roberts, who added that Davis is “leaning toward doing it, and if he does, he’ll have our full support.” Full story
April 6, 2012
Sen. Jon Tester’s campaign has launched two more positive TV ads in Montana to boost the Democrat’s first bid for re-election.
The 30-second ads, which the campaign said it spent about $60,000 on, will begin airing statewide this weekend. Both focus on Tester’s efforts to support military veterans.
The campaign of Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) raised $3.4 million in the first quarter of 2012 and had about $15 million in cash on hand — a huge war chest for his race against Harvard professor and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren (D).
Warren hasn’t announced her full fundraising haul for the first quarter, but her campaign said it raised $2.5 million from “Massachusetts families.”
Rep. Jason Altmire raised slightly more than Rep. Mark Critz in the final months before their April 24 Democratic primary in a southwestern Pennsylvania House district.
Altmire’s campaign announced he raised about $330,000 from Jan. 1 through April 4, which is the pre-primary reporting period.
Critz raised about $285,000 during the same period, his top campaign aide confirmed to Roll Call. Full story
April 5, 2012
Embattled Sen. Dick Lugar (Ind.) has had a rough couple of weeks, and a new poll underscores just how much trouble he is in against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the GOP primary next month.
Lugar led Mourdock 42 percent to 35 percent among likely GOP primary voters, according to the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll released today. While the poll showed Lugar with a single-digit lead, 42 percent is a dangerously low number for a veteran lawmaker and it underscores just how competitive Lugar’s first tough re-election battle has become.
Indiana has an open primary, and therefore, independents and Democrats can vote in the May 8 contest. Lugar and Mourdock ran even among self-identified Republicans in the poll, which suggests the Senator’s saving grace lies with independents. Lugar led among independents and voters who said they lean Republican, 52 percent to 26 percent. Full story
Republican Richard Tisei pulled in an impressive $350,000 in the first quarter of 2012 in his bid to unseat Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.). Tisei, a former state Senator and GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, managed to raise the substantial sum despite being a Republican in a state that overwhelmingly favors Democrats.
His campaign told Roll Call he ended last month with $454,000 in cash on hand. Tierney’s fundraising numbers for the first quarter were not immediately available.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Tisei raised $312,000 to Tierney’s $161,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Full story
Ron Barber, a former aide to Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), is off to a strong start in his campaign to fill the ex-Congresswoman’s seat.
In the reporting period that began Jan. 1 and ended March 28, the Democrat raised almost $550,000 and had nearly $465,000 in the bank.
Barber raised the large sum in less than two months with a big hand from a who’s who of Democratic interest groups and Members. Full story