- Renee Ellmers May Face Primary Challenge
- Several Ohio Democrats Considering Senate Primary
- Democrats Set National Convention Date for 2016
- First Race Ratings for Gubernatorial Contests Revealed
- Democrats Could Face Primary Mess in Illinois Senate Race
October 29, 2012
Here’s what cut through the clutter today:
The newest in a series of ads from Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) featuring Missouri voters attacking Rep. Todd Akin (R) over the issue that gave McCaskill a chance to hold her seat.
A woman opens the ad saying, “Todd Akin is scary,” with a second criticizing his comments about “legitimate rape.” The ad also replays August video of Akin making those comments on a St. Louis TV station. Following that statement, Akin lost support of most national Republicans and conservative activists, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
A new poll in the bitterly fought Massachusetts Senate race found Sen. Scott Brown (R) tied with Democrat Elizabeth Warren. In a horse-race matchup among likely voters, including those who lean toward Brown or Warren, each candidate took 47 percent.
The survey, conducted for the Boston Globe by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, found 54 percent of those polled had a favorable impression of Brown, while 37 percent saw him unfavorably. Forty-nine percent saw Warren, a Harvard University professor and consumer advocate, favorably while 42 percent had an unfavorable view of her.
A number of earlier polls found Warren leading.
Roll Call rates the race as a Tossup.
The poll surveyed 583 likely Bay State voters by live telephone interview from Oct. 24 to 28. It had a margin of error of 4.1 points.
Updated 12:50 p.m. | Not many events could keep a president from campaigning for re-election one week before Election Day, but the hurricane threatening the Eastern Seaboard and nearing landfall is exactly that kind of disaster.
President Barack Obama is off the campaign trail and will be at least through Tuesday because he needs to monitor storm response to Hurricane Sandy. On Sunday night, the president left Washington, D.C., for Florida to attend a campaign rally, but by 7 a.m today, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney announced the president would skip the rally and return to the capitol this morning. The White House and the Obama campaign also announced this morning that a scheduled campaign trip to Green Bay, Wis., on Tuesday was canceled.
GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney went to Ohio, a battleground state away from the storm, instead of Virginia as previously planned. But by late morning, Romney’s campaign had decided to cancel all campaign events through Tuesday.
Updated 11:55 a.m. | With a week to go before Election Day, two competing polls from Minnesota’s 8th district show vastly different pictures of the tossup race between Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) and former Rep. Rick Nolan (D).
An internal poll conducted by Cravaack’s campaign showed the Republican incumbent ahead of Nolan by 10 points. The poll of 400 likely voters had Cravaack with 50 percent of the vote to Nolan’s 40 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points and it was conducted Oct. 24 and Oct. 25.
At the same time, a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,020 likely voters showed Nolan in the lead with 48 percent to Cravaack’s 44 percent, just slightly outside of the 3.8 point margin of error. The poll was conducted Oct. 25 and Oct. 26.
A new poll from the Washington Post found that former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine led by 7 points in the open-seat Senate race.
The Democrat and fellow former Gov. George Allen (R) are battling in one of the most competitive contests of the cycle in a state that could go either way in the presidential race. And after a year of running even, polling results over the past six months have been as mixed as they once were steady.
October 27, 2012
A new GOP poll found Republican Brendan Doherty leading Rep. David Cicilline (D) by 6 points in the hard fought and bitterly nasty race for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional district.
The respected Republican firm OnMessage conducted a survey of likely voters for Doherty, which found him leading Cicilline 45 percent to 39 percent in a horse race matchup. Six percent of those polled said they would vote for independent candidate David Vogel, while 11 percent remained undecided.
Forty-two percent had a favorable view of Doherty, a retired state police officer, while 33 percent had an unfavorable view. Thirty-nine percent had a favorable view of Cicilline, while 46 percent had an unfavorable view of him.
President Barack Obama received 55 percent to Mitt Romney’s 34 percent in a ballot test in the poll, underscoring the district’s Democratic leanings.
The race appears to have turned significantly more competitive in recent days. The independent expenditure arms of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have both bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of ad time covering the final days of the campaign.
Cicilline campaign manager Eric Hyers said the poll was a distraction.
“Brendan Doherty has run one of nastiest and negative races in recent memory,” he wrote in an email. “He is trying to distract from the fact he is a Romney Republican who has the backing of national Republicans, and will, as President Bill Clinton said today in a robo-call, ‘be just another vote for those Republicans.’ That poll resembles nothing we have seen, and actually every public poll done so far has shown David ahead.”
Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.
The GOP poll, conducted by live telephone interview on Oct. 24 and 25, surveyed 400 likely voters in the district. It had a margin of error of 4.9 points.
Here is the full GOP polling memo:
A poll commissioned by two leading Missouri newspapers indicates the state’s Senate race may be narrowing approaching the final week, but internal polling from Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign tells a different story.
The independent poll, released late Friday night, showed McCaskill holding just a 2-point lead over her beleaguered GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Akin. The poll had a 4-point margin of error.
New internal numbers out this morning, however, showed McCaskill up by double digits, 53 percent to 39 percent. Most other polling has also shown McCaskill well ahead of Akin since he made remarks about pregnancies resulting from what he called “legitimate rape.”
“As we plan for the final week of the campaign, Sen. McCaskill is fully in command, and we see no indication that Akin has rebounded. Quite the contrary; his ratings are now as low as we have ever measured them,” McCaskill’s pollsters from Kiley & Company said in a memo.
The polling firm Mason-Dixon conducted the outside survey of 625 likely voters for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star and St. Louis TV station KMOV. Asked about the new numbers, the McCaskill campaign was quick to remind KMOV that a Mason-Dixon poll released shortly before the Republican primary missed the mark entirely.
That poll showed Akin with 17 percent support, placing a distant third behind former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner. Akin prevailed in the primary with about 36 percent of the vote. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted shortly after the rape comments showed McCaskill ahead by 9 points.
McCaskill’s campaign launched three new ads statewide earlier in the week, continuing an aggressive campaign in spite of the lead.
“I think from a national perspective, Todd is doing what people said couldn’t be done,” Akin senior adviser Rick Tyler told KMOV.
Akin’s campaign has tried to bring the narrative back to economic issues and McCaskill’s job performance and away from his controversial statements, but that’s proved difficult with limited campaign resources. It has also been pushing a variety of allegations against businesses in which McCaskill’s husband is involved.
Akin has caused other trouble for himself, though.
He was forced to amend 10 years of financial disclosures after inexplicably failing to report a pension income he earned as a state employee. He previously filed an amendment to his disclosure forms because he had neglected to list at least $355,000 in property.
Roll Call rates the race as Leans Democratic.
October 26, 2012
Updated 10:31 a.m. | Col. Mark Kelly, the husband of retired Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), wrote an email Friday evening that was critical of retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally, the Republican running for the House seat formerly held by his wife.
Kelly has backed McSally’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Ron Barber, since his first run for Congress in a June special election to replace Giffords.
According to an email sent to Barber’s list of supporters, a comment McSally made to the Washington Post sparked Kelly’s ire.
“We are rugged individuals,” she told the Post. “We elect unique people to represent us in this district — Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, Gabby Giffords. I resemble Gabby Giffords more than the man who worked for her, although I am grateful for his service.”
In an email with the subject line “I cannot believe this,” Kelly proceeded to express outrage at McSally for comparing herself to Giffords.
“Martha McSally is no Gabby Giffords. Time and time again, she has refused to give a straight answer when asked directly about the most important issues facing Southern Arizona,” he wrote.
By the end of the night in Wisconsin, the exchanges between former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson and Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin seemed less like a debate than a fight between two candidates desperate to beat one another and exhausted from the battle.
The blows have become personal in the Badger State, where the Senate race has devolved from big issues such as the economy and health care to the candidate’s responses to the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
That Senate candidates in Wisconsin are re-litigating a dark period from more than a decade ago, through both television ads and verbal sparring sessions, reveals a stark reality: The effort by each campaign to make the other candidate seem less appealing in the election’s closing days knows few bounds and is deemed essential to capture the open seat.
“I believe you should never politicize 9/11,” Baldwin said during a charged moment in the debate.
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) laced into President Barack Obama in an open letter today, blasting him and his campaign for producing an advertisement that uses a double entendre-laden theme to encourage first-time voting.
The ad was a testimonial from actress Lena Dunham of HBO’s “Girls” fame. In the spot, she quite obviously compares losing one’s virginity to voting for the first time.
“What could you possibly have been thinking?” Blackburn writes in her letter. “The ad you have launched featuring a young actress equating voting for you to a sexual act is offensive to me, to millions of women and to the stature of the office you hold. As a father of two beautiful girls, how could you possibly have allowed this to be aired?”
With fewer than two weeks before Election Day, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has stopped running ads in Maine against front-running Independent Angus King, sources confirm.
Outside groups, including Crossroads GPS, are still engaged in the ad war in the Senate contest, however. Most operatives say the race is slipping out of reach for Republican Charlie Summers, but that’s not the only motivation for the NRSC, which also pays attention to where outside groups are committed to spending, allowing the party committee to allocate resources elsewhere.
Crossroads GPS went up with a $330,000 one-week buy against King beginning Tuesday in the only truly three-way race in the country.
Outside involvement on the part of the NRSC and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been tricky throughout the race, given that King has not declared which party he will caucus with if elected. The NRSC decided to go up with negative ads, while the DSCC never officially endorsed Democratic candidate Cynthia Dill.
Though the NRSC pulling out of the state is not a death knell for Summer’s bid, it certainly is a sign that the group believes its money is better spent elsewhere, especially with so many close races across the country and control of the Senate up for grabs.
The news of the NRSC backing out of Maine media was first reported by Politico.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is investing $500,000 of coordinated funds to assist GOP nominee Tom Smith in his challenge to Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D).
The move indicates national Republicans view an opportunity to widen their path to the majority, even if the incumbent here remains favored.
CNN first reported the news.
The NRSC’s investment is about how much the Democratic-aligned Majority PAC expended this week for a television advertisement in the state, which had not broached the competitive landscape until recently. Thanks in part to the $10 million personal loan to his campaign, Smith outspent Casey, $6.8 million to $2.5 million, in the third quarter.
Casey and Smith debated for the first time today, as recent polls have shown the race pulling close. Pennsylvania is not among the states that allows for early voting, so there is truly another week and a half left.
House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (Wis.), the Republican vice presidential nominee, was scheduled this afternoon at 4:30 p.m. to hold a conference call with top GOP House candidates to give them an update on the state of the presidential race.
The call includes candidates in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Young Guns and Vanguard programs, the committee’s recruitment and candidate support initiatives for top candidates.
The race between Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama remains very close less than two weeks before Election Day. Republicans are almost certain to retain control of the House, and Democrats have the edge in their effort to hold the Senate majority.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its Republican counterpart by some $1.3 million in the first two and a half weeks of October.
According to pre-general reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, the DSCC raised $7.3 million Oct. 1-17. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $6 million during the same period, including about $800,000 from a joint fundraising committee with GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
The DSCC has not received any money from joint fundraising committees with Obama for America or the Democratic National Committee.
Both parties are pushing for a majority in the Senate, which Democrats currently control 53-47.
Here’s what cut through the clutter today:
One of the most common Republican ad trends this cycle is featuring elderly relatives — usually parents — defending the candidate’s Medicare credentials. Rep. Joe Walsh (R) is taking another tack: In his newest ad, his son Joey defends his honor in light of a new ad from veteran Tammy Duckworth’s (D) campaign about child support problems.