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July 12, 2012
The National Republican Congressional Committee today announced its third round of Young Guns — candidates who have reached the highest tier of the committee’s recruitment and candidate support program.
The seven new candidates are:
- Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, running in Florida’s open 22nd district
- Attorney Ben Lange, running in Iowa’s 1st district against Rep. Bruce Braley (D)
- John Deere attorney John Archer, running in Iowa’s 2nd district against Rep. Dave Loebsack (D)
- State Senate President Kevin Raye, running in Maine’s 2nd district against Rep. Mike Michaud (D)
- State Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer, running in North Dakota’s open at-large seat
- Businessman Danny Tarkanian, running in Nevada’s open 4th district
- Former Erie County Executive Chris Collins, running New York’s 27th district against freshman Rep. Kathy Hochul (D)
As expected, the Club for Growth announced this morning that it was making a significant financial investment in former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, who is battling Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the Senate Republican primary runoff.
The $1.5 million buy is sizable but does not go as far in Texas as it would in other states with cheaper media markets. The runoff election is scheduled for July 31.
A poll conducted for former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign found the Republican would be in a tight race with either of her potential Democratic opponents in this Democratic-leaning state.
According to a polling memo from Jan van Lohuizen, the Voter Consumer Research poll found Lingle leading Rep. Mazie Hirono by 5 points and trailing former Rep. Ed Case by 1 point, which is within the 4-point margin of error. The survey of 600 likely general election voters was taken July 8-10. Full story
July 11, 2012
Seth Moulton, the Marine veteran eyeing an independent bid against Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.), said he is being encouraged to run for Congress by notable Massachusetts Democrats, many of whom are worried about holding the district.
“Obviously, they’re concerned that Tierney’s going to lose the seat,” he said. “This wasn’t Republicans who asked me to do this, this was Democrats.”
Moulton declined to say who these Democrats were, but he specified that none were associated with the formal party apparatus in the state or in Washington, D.C. Full story
State Sen. Tony Strickland (R) and state Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D), battling for the open 26th district in Ventura County, both raised more than $600,000 in the second quarter.
Strickland, a top Republican recruit, announced raising $605,000 for the period ending June 30 and had more than $1 million in cash on hand.
Brownley, who entered the race late after another Democrat opted not to run, announced raising $637,000 and had $320,000 in cash on hand. She’s raised a total of $923,000 to date.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst led former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz by 8 points in a recent internal poll obtained by Roll Call.
Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Dewhurst in the July 31 GOP runoff, while 42 percent supported Cruz. National Journal’s the Hotline first reported the results of the poll, which was conducted by Dewhurst pollster Mike Baselice.
It is a striking difference from a late June Cruz internal poll obtained last week that showed Cruz with a 9-point lead over Dewhurst.
The difference in the results appears to be rooted in how each campaign determines who is a “likely runoff voter.” The Dewhurst poll surveyed those who had voted in previous GOP primaries and stated an intent to vote in the runoff. Full story
Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis (R) will run in the special election for former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter’s (R-Mich.) seat, her campaign confirmed Wednesday.
Cassis joins reindeer rancher Kerry Bentivolio (R) in the special primary on Sept. 5, the winner of which will run in the Nov. 6 special election to serve out the final few weeks of McCotter’s term.
The special primary marks the second time in a month the two Republicans will face each other for the west Detroit district. After McCotter dropped his re-election bid, Bentivolio was the only candidate left on the Aug. 7 Republican ballot.
Many local GOP officials are supporting Cassis as a write-in candidate for a full term on the GOP ballot instead.
A new nonpartisan poll of the Maine Senate race shows former Gov. Angus King (I) with a very solid lead over his Republican and Democratic challengers.
In a horse-race matchup of likely voters, King led with 55 percent of those polled. Republican Charlie Summers took 27 percent, while Democrat Cynthia Dill took 7 percent. Nine percent didn’t know for whom they would vote.
Those numbers track with another nonpartisan poll from last month, which had King at 50 percent.
King is widely expected to caucus with Democrats if he wins, though he has not publicly announced which party he would caucus with, if any. Full story
Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde hold solid leads over their opponents in the race for the GOP nomination for Wisconsin’s open Senate seat, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released today. The survey is the latest in a string of news suggesting that Hovde and Thompson are the race’s frontrunners.
The poll, which surveyed 432 likely GOP voters, shows Thompson leading Hovde with support from 35 percent of likely voters compared with Hovde’s 23 percent. Former Rep. Mark Neumann and state Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald remained in a distant third and fourth place, respectively. Twenty-five percent of of likely voters said they remained undecided. The GOP primary portion of the poll had a margin of error of 4.8 points.
The Marquette poll is the latest evidence that the primary has narrowed to two primary competitors. A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday showed Hovde leading the former governor by 2 points. An internal poll from the Hovde campaign released last week showed him trailing Thompson by 5 points.
The opposition also seems to expect to face either Thompson or Hovde in the general election. EMILY’s list released a television ad Tuesday that targets the pair and ignores the other GOP candidates. The ad buy has $400,000 behind it.
The general election portion of the poll, which surveyed 810 likely voters, showed presumptive Democratic nominee Rep. Tammy Baldwin behind Thompson by 4 points and defeating all of her other potential opponents. That section had a margin of error of 3.5 points.
Roll Call rates the general election as a Tossup.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made a significant show of support today for Rep. Shelley Berkley, announcing a $2.3 million reservation of television time in Nevada for the fall.
The announcement comes two days after the Ethics Committee announced a formal investigation into whether the Democrat used her influence in Congress to benefit her husband’s interests.
Berkley is challenging Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a race that will help decide control of a closely divided Senate. Heller launched a new campaign ad today targeting Berkley on the ethics investigation. Full story
During the second quarter, Rep. Tom Latham (R) built on his massive money advantage over his November opponent, Rep. Leonard Boswell (D).
Latham ended June with $2.14 million in cash on hand — more than four times the amount in Boswell’s campaign bank account.
Boswell and Latham are running for the 3rd district in southwestern Iowa, which includes Des Moines. Latham, one of Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) top allies, has eclipsed Boswell in fundraising throughout the campaign.
Boswell raised $300,000 in the most recent quarter, marking his best fundraising report since 2006. But Latham raised $500,000 during the same period.
Boswell will report $470,000 in the bank, according to his top campaign aide.
The Hawkeye State lost a House seat because of lagging population growth, effectively forcing the two Members to face off this November. An independent redistricting commission redrew the state’s Congressional lines last year.
Every Democratic nominee running in a competitive Illinois House district was invited to participate in a party-organized fundraiser held Friday at Chicago’s Wrigley Field — except for emergency room physician David Gill.
Gill’s exclusion from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee event signals that House Democrats have yet to commit to putting resources behind his bid for the open 13th district.
The DCCC listed five candidates on the invitation to the high-dollar fundraiser, which was headlined by Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), whose district includes Wrigley Field. Among the nominees invited were Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, former Rep. Bill Foster, businessman Brad Schneider, former East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos and retired Major General Bill Enyart. Democrats view the House districts where these candidates are running as some of their best pickup opportunities for November.
The fundraiser comes as Gill’s GOP opponent, Rodney Davis, announced that he raised $440,000 in six weeks. Local Republican officials selected Davis as their party’s nominee after Rep. Timothy Johnson (R) suddenly retired less than a month after winning the primary.
Nevada Sen. Dean Heller’s campaign launched a TV ad this morning highlighting the ethics investigation into his Democratic challenger, Rep. Shelley Berkley. Full story
Firebrand former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) announced today that he raised $820,000 in the second quarter and ended June with about $1.2 million in cash on hand in his bid to return to the House.
Grayson was beaten by now-Rep. Daniel Webster by 18 points in 2010 but is running in the newly configured Orlando-area 9th district, which is friendly to Democrats. It would have voted about 60 percent for Barack Obama in 2008. Full story
Sen. Jon Tester is launching an ad today criticizing his Republican challenger, a change from the mostly positive ads the campaign has aired to date.
The Democrat’s ad targets Rep. Denny Rehberg’s House-floor voting record, charging that he supported a 2011 appropriations bill that reduced funding for breast cancer screenings. It features Lisa Jones, a cancer survivor, discussing how the cuts could have affected her recovery. Full story