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Posted at 2:02 p.m. on June 21, 2013
Former Sen. Scott P. Brown, who lost a bid for a full term in November, will make his first appearance on the Massachusetts special-election campaign trail June 24. But a day before the election, the race will likely look more like his November 2012 loss than his January 2010 upset.
Republican nominee Gabriel Gomez’s team remains optimistic based on a solid Tuesday debate performance and a recent internal poll that showed him within striking distance of Rep. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass. Plus, turnout is unpredictable in any special election.
But even if Gomez is still down just 7 points internally, public polls released this week don’t offer any evidence of a surge of support like the one that lifted Brown to a 5-point special-election victory on Jan. 19, 2010:
In contrast, Markey has led in every public poll with no recent signs of lagging:
In a state where Republicans begin any statewide federal race behind, the atmospherics of this year’s race were far less helpful for the GOP than in 2010. Meanwhile, Democrats have flooded the state with TV ads and high-profile surrogates — Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will rally supporters there on Saturday.
Combined, it made the race a steeper climb for Gomez than for Brown.